Ukraine Has an Array of New Western Weapons. What Advantages Could They Offer in a Counteroffensive?

A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)
A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)
TT

Ukraine Has an Array of New Western Weapons. What Advantages Could They Offer in a Counteroffensive?

A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)
A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine’s military was largely reliant on Soviet-era weaponry, from tanks to artillery to fighter jets.

While that arsenal helped Ukraine fend off an assault on the capital of Kyiv and prevent a total rout in the early weeks of the war, billions of dollars in military assistance has since poured into the country, including more modern Western-made weapons.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive, now in its early stages, could offer a glimpse of whether and to what extent the newer weapons systems have strengthened Kyiv’s ability to stand up to Russia.

Analysts are cautiously optimistic.

"Ukraine is in a much better position to be able to conduct a combined arms warfare than where they were in the beginning of Russia’s full-scale reinvasion of Ukraine," George Barros, a Russia analyst for the Center for Strategic International Studies said.

Here’s a look at some of the Western weapons sent to Ukraine and what advantages they might offer.

Striking targets

One sophisticated US-made rocket launcher sent to Ukraine has received a lot of attention — and for good reason: High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems gave Kyiv's forces the ability to hit targets farther away and with much greater accuracy than Soviet-designed ones.

In the fall counteroffensive, the HIMARS — which currently give troops the capability to strike a target up to 80 kilometers (50 miles) away and then quickly move on — were used to destroy bridges near the southern city of Kherson, cutting Russian troops off from one another and their supply routes.

Ukraine has since clamored for longer-range missiles that can also be launched by the HIMARS and could reach up to 300 kilometers (190 miles) away. But the U.S. and its allies have been reluctant to provide them.

However, Washington agreed in February to send Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of 150 kilometers (90 miles) when fired by HIMARS, and the UK announced the delivery of Storm Shadow cruise missiles — with a range of 550 kilometers (340 miles).

Both weapons already have been spotted in combat, extending Ukraine’s reach.

Air defense

Throughout the war, Russia has rained missiles down on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure almost daily.

To defend against those barrages, the West has sent Ukraine the Patriot and the Avenger air defense systems.

At $4 million per round, Patriot missiles are meant to shield against larger ballistic missile attacks, leaving simpler weapons to deal with the cheap, slow-flying Iranian exploding drones often used by the Russians.

Even with these new air defense systems, Ukraine has struggled to protect its territory against daily Russian attacks.

Russia has relied on long-range ballistic and cruise missiles to strike targets deep in Ukraine, avoiding a risk to its warplanes after losing many of them in the initial stages of the invasion. Moscow’s failure to win control of Ukrainian airspace was one of the biggest surprises of the war.

Ukraine also has kept its much smaller air force made of Soviet-made Sukhoi and Mig-29 jets away from the front line and used them to launch missiles from large distances to minimize losses.

Ukraine long has pushed for Western jets, but their delivery isn’t expected any time soon.

"Ukraine would be a lot in a better position for a more decisive victory and success on a shorter timeline if we took these decisions a lot faster," Barros said.

Artillery

Long known as the "King of Battle," artillery systems are key in any war — but especially the one in Ukraine. Russian troops have dug themselves in throughout the south and east of the country. Driving them out will require significant artillery.

Artillery can take out buildings and enemy weapons from reasonable distances and cause such chaos that opposing troops are forced to withdraw. Ukrainian forces are making heavy use of artillery in the battles around Zaporizhzhia, where the beginnings of the counteroffensive are unfolding.

Ukraine had plenty of artillery to begin with — but now it has American M777s and German Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers, both of which are more accurate and powerful than what it started the war with.

Tanks and armored vehicles

Ukraine needs the "punching force" of tanks and other fighting vehicles if it's going to break through Russian lines, Barros said.

Tanks delivered thus far — which include multiple models of German Leopards and the British Challengers — are more sophisticated than the Soviet-designed T-64 and T-72 tanks Ukraine relied on at the start of the invasion.

They also have far better armor and can strike more accurately than Russia's tanks, according to Craig Cartier, a retired Soviet Union analyst for the US with more than three decades of experience.

The US, meanwhile, has sent Bradley fighting vehicles, which offer better protection for troops they carry and have better firepower compared to Soviet-era armored vehicles that Ukraine has used.

All of these vehicles can inflict high casualties and destroy other weapons systems, making them invaluable for a counteroffensive.

Training

Perhaps most crucial to Ukraine’s success, however, has been the Ukrainians themselves. Both Barros and Cartier said the experience and training of Ukrainian troops, not just the weapons provided by the West, has made them a lethal force.

The Ukrainians "have demonstrated the ability to not only master the equipment and tactics, but to be able to do things nobody else has been able to do, as demonstrated by their (air defense) wizardry," Cartier said.

In the UK and Germany, in addition to other neighboring countries, Ukrainian forces have been trained on infantry tactics and on certain specialized equipment, such as the Challenger-2 tanks.

It's impossible to know how the counteroffensive will unfold, Barros said.

"What I will say is every single time that the Ukrainians have had an opportunity to demonstrate their fortitude and resolve on the battlefield, they’ve always outperformed expectations," he said.



A Call for Peace in Türkiye: What’s in It for Key Actors?

A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. (AFP)
A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. (AFP)
TT

A Call for Peace in Türkiye: What’s in It for Key Actors?

A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. (AFP)
A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. (AFP)

Türkiye’s 40-year battle against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) could be nearing an end after its jailed leader, Abdullah Ocalan, called on the militant group on Thursday to lay down its arms and disband. Ocalan's statement, announced by the opposition pro-Kurdish DEM party that held three recent meetings with the PKK leader at his island prison, comes four months after the idea was first raised by a political ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

There was no immediate response to Ocalan's appeal from the PKK commanders' headquarters in the mountains of northern Iraq.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR ERDOGAN?

Ending the insurgency would be a major achievement for Türkiye’s president after past efforts failed to resolve a conflict in which more than 40,000 people have died since 1984. Erdogan has called it "one of the last obstacles blocking the goal of a great and powerful Türkiye".

Though it remains unclear whether a ceasefire or peace deal could ultimately emerge, Ocalan's call may also boost Erdogan's own political prospects. In order to extend his rule beyond 2028, when his last term as president ends, he would need the support of an opposition party, perhaps DEM, in order to amend the constitution or bring about early elections.

He could also capitalize on military gains against the PKK in mountainous northern Iraq, where it is based, and in Syria, where the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in December has led to the establishment of a strongly pro-Türkiye leadership in Damascus. Ocalan's call could prompt the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria to expel members of the PKK-aligned People's Protection Units (YPG), as Ankara has demanded.

ANY RISKS?

There are risks for Erdogan in resurrecting Ocalan, a figure reviled by most Turks, including supporters of his ruling AK Party (AKP).

Mehmet Guner, head of the Martyrs' Families Association for Turkish troops, told Reuters he was "extremely unhappy and very angry" that the government backed Ocalan's public call. "For 40 years, this country has fought against terrorism, sacrificing thousands of martyrs and veterans... We absolutely do not find it appropriate to negotiate with the leader of the terrorists in this manner," he said.

On the Kurdish side, if PKK fighters refuse to heed Ocalan's call and violence continues or even worsens, the distrust that many Turkish Kurds already have for Erdogan could deepen.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR THE KURDS?

The pro-Kurdish political movement, the target of a years-long judicial crackdown, will hope Ocalan's call eventually translates into democratic reforms and greater cultural and language rights for Kurds. A peace deal could also ease social tensions generally across Türkiye, and boost the under-developed economy of its mainly Kurdish southeast. Shortly after one of DEM's meetings with Ocalan in December, Ankara announced a $14 billion regional development plan for the southeast.

"Many Kurds simply do not trust the Turkish state. Any meaningful disarmament process would require concrete steps from Ankara - such as guarantees of political and cultural rights for Kurds - before, not after, a peace deal is made," said Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based political analyst.

If DEM continues to cooperate with Erdogan's AKP - reversing years of fierce opposition - it could also seek to have reinstated the many elected mayors that Turkish authorities have removed from positions and replaced with pro-government officials.

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR SYRIA?

The Syrian Kurdish SDF, a key US ally, is still battling Turkish and Turkish-backed Syrian forces in the border regions. If SDF commander Mazloum Abdi can filter YPG members from his group, the Kurdish forces could more easily join Syria's newly-forming security structure, centralizing and stabilizing the country as it emerges from 13 years of civil war.

"The YPG will likely heed Ocalan if he asks them to play nice with Türkiye, even if some leaders in Qandil (the PKK headquarters in Iraq) advise the group to do otherwise," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.

IMPLICATIONS FOR US-TURKISH TIES?

While the United States deems the PKK terrorists, it has been allied with the YPG's umbrella group in the fight against ISIS in Syria. Türkiye has sharply criticized this US stance as a betrayal of a NATO ally.

Steps toward ending the PKK insurgency could "remove the PKK thorn from US-Turkish relations and pave the way for their anticipated reset under the second Trump administration," Cagaptay said.

"Removing the PKK from Syria's political landscape would pave the way for Türkiye to cooperate with Washington and the Syrian Kurds on many issues beneficial to US interests, such as containing the ISIS, rebuilding the country, and establishing stable Turkish ties with different Syrian groups," he said.