How Many Russians Have Died in Ukraine? Data Shows What Moscow Hideshttps://english.aawsat.com/features/4424641-how-many-russians-have-died-ukraine-data-shows-what-moscow-hides
How Many Russians Have Died in Ukraine? Data Shows What Moscow Hides
A woman at a cemetery in Volzhsky, outside Volgograd, Russia, on May 26, 2022, looks at the graves of Russian soldiers killed in the war in Ukraine. (AP)
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How Many Russians Have Died in Ukraine? Data Shows What Moscow Hides
A woman at a cemetery in Volzhsky, outside Volgograd, Russia, on May 26, 2022, looks at the graves of Russian soldiers killed in the war in Ukraine. (AP)
Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead.
Two independent Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza, working with a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University, used Russian government data to shed light on one of Moscow’s closest-held secrets — the true human cost of its invasion of Ukraine.
To do so, they relied on a statistical concept popularized during the COVID-19 pandemic called excess mortality. Drawing on inheritance records and official mortality data, they estimated how many more men under age 50 died between February 2022 and May 2023 than normal.
Neither Moscow nor Kyiv gives timely data on military losses, and each is at pains to amplify the other side’s casualties. Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers. Reports about military losses have been repressed in Russian media, activists and independent journalists say. Documenting the dead has become an act of defiance, and those who do so face harassment and potential criminal charges.
Despite such challenges, Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian Service, working with a network of volunteers, have used social media postings and photographs of cemeteries across Russia to build a database of confirmed war deaths. As of July 7, they had identified 27,423 dead Russian soldiers.
"These are only soldiers who we know by name, and their deaths in each case are verified by multiple sources," said Dmitry Treshchanin, an editor at Mediazona who helped oversee the investigation. "The estimate we did with Meduza allows us to see the ‘hidden’ deaths, deaths the Russian government is so obsessively and unsuccessfully trying to hide."
To come up with a more comprehensive tally, journalists from Mediazona and Meduza obtained records of inheritance cases filed with the Russian authorities. Their data from the National Probate Registry contained information about more than 11 million people who died between 2014 and May 2023.
According to their analysis, 25,000 more inheritance cases were opened in 2022 for males aged 15 to 49 than expected. By May 27, 2023, the number of excess cases had shot up to 47,000.
That surge is roughly in line with a May assessment by the White House that more than 20,000 Russians had been killed in Ukraine since December, though lower than US and UK intelligence assessments of overall Russian deaths.
In February, the UK Ministry of Defense said approximately 40,000 to 60,000 Russians had likely been killed in the war. A leaked assessment from the US Defense Intelligence Agency put the number of Russians killed in action in the first year of the war at 35,000 to 43,000.
"Their figures might be accurate, or they might not be," Treshchanin, the Mediazona editor, said in an email. "Even if they have sources in the Russian Ministry of Defense, its own data could be incomplete. It’s extremely difficult to pull together all of the casualties from the army, Rosgvardia, Akhmat battalion, various private military companies, of which Wagner is the largest, but not the only one. Casualties among inmates, first recruited by Wagner and now by the MoD, are also a very hazy subject, with a lot of potential for manipulation. Statistics could actually give better results."
Independently, Dmitry Kobak, a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University who has published work on excess COVID-19 deaths in Russia, obtained mortality data broken down by age and sex for 2022 from Rosstat, Russia’s official statistics agency.
He found that 24,000 more men under age 50 died in 2022 than expected, a figure that aligns with the analysis of inheritance data.
The COVID-19 pandemic made it harder to figure out how many men would have died in Russia since February 2022 if there hadn’t been a war. Both analyses corrected for the lingering effects of COVID on mortality by indexing male death rates against female deaths.
Sergei Scherbov, a scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, cautioned that "differences in the number of deaths between males and females can vary significantly due to randomness alone."
"I am not saying that there couldn’t be an excess number of male deaths, but rather that statistically speaking, this difference in deaths could be a mere outcome of chance," he said.
Russians who are missing but not officially recognized as dead, as well as citizens of Ukraine fighting in units of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics, are not included in these counts.
Kobak acknowledged that some uncertainties remain, especially for deaths of older men. Moreover, it’s hard to know how many missing Russian soldiers are actually dead. But he said neither factor is likely to have a huge impact.
"That uncertainty is in the thousands," he said. "The results are plausible overall."
Meduza is an independent Russian media outlet that has been operating in exile for eight years, with headquarters in Riga, Latvia. In April 2021, Russian authorities designated Meduza a "foreign agent," making it harder to generate advertising income, and in January 2023, the Kremlin banned Meduza as an illegal "undesirable organization."
Moscow has also labeled independent outlet Mediazona as a "foreign agent" and blocked its website after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
US-led Troops Exit Iraq: What's Next for Pro-Iran Groups?https://english.aawsat.com/features/5324163-us-led-troops-exit-iraq-whats-next-pro-iran-groups
A giant Iraqi flag hangs off the reconstructed 12th century "Hadba" leaning minaret at the historic Great Mosque of al-Nuri in the old city of Mosul on September 29, 2026 as Iraq marks the withdrawal of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition forces from the country. (Photo by Zaid AL-OBEIDI / AFP)
US-led Troops Exit Iraq: What's Next for Pro-Iran Groups?
A giant Iraqi flag hangs off the reconstructed 12th century "Hadba" leaning minaret at the historic Great Mosque of al-Nuri in the old city of Mosul on September 29, 2026 as Iraq marks the withdrawal of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition forces from the country. (Photo by Zaid AL-OBEIDI / AFP)
With the US-led anti-extremist coalition leaving Iraq, Baghdad faces mounting pressure to rein in Tehran-backed armed groups, a difficult task in a country long caught between its allies, the US and Iran.
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who assumed power earlier this year with the United States' blessing, has pledged that after the coalition exits on Wednesday, pro-Iran groups would hand over their weapons to the state.
But the issue has proven far more complicated than simple announcements, said AFP.
Iraq has long been a proxy battleground for the US and Iran, with each interfering in major political decisions and government formation.
The ongoing Middle East war, during which Iran-backed groups in Iraq targeted US facilities there and around the region hundreds of times, has deepened Iraq's entanglement.
- 'Tricky' -
Several senior Iraqi officials told AFP that Iran will not accept that the factions hand over their weapons, especially amid the regional war, and its officials have clearly relayed the message.
"If there's a deal between the US and Iran, I think that this whole issue becomes very easy to deal with," Iraqi political analyst Sajad Jiyad said.
But Jiyad said "Iran has been very clear that while there is a conflict going on, they cannot give up their strategic capabilities", including the Iraqi groups and "their ability to attack US interests in Iraq and the region".
It is, however, a "tricky situation", because Iran doesn't want an "unstable Iraq", he added.
"Iran's agenda is to reach a deal with the US, so that these groups will naturally reduce their visibility and activity," without giving up capabilities.
The factions also want assurances that the US won't target them before they consider surrendering their weapons.
But if no progress is forthcoming in terms of disarming these groups, then "the US is not going to make a longer-term commitment of not targeting them", he said.
It will continue on its usual paths: diplomatic and economic pressure through sanctions, and occasional strikes.
- 'Liability' -
The US-led coalition deployed to Iraq and Syria in 2014 to fight the ISIS group, which seized large swathes of both countries and committed atrocities.
Both the coalition and Tehran-backed groups fought ISIS, their common enemy.
After ISIS's defeat in Iraq in 2017, those groups demanded the withdrawal of US troops and began targeting them with drones and missiles, triggering US retaliatory strikes that killed several of their commanders over the years.
US pressure on successive Iraqi governments to disarm the factions mounted, especially after they intervened in support of Palestinians during the Gaza war in 2023, and later backed Tehran in the Middle East war.
Political analyst Jiyad said little should be expected after the coalition's pullout.
"We are not going to get disarmament... but there has to be some sort of progress and some plan," he said.
"What is probably going to happen is the process begins" towards a solution, but it will require time and "trust-building measures".
The Tehran-backed groups feel the government is unable to protect them from the US, and the government sees them as a "liability," he added.
- No plan -
While some groups said they would disarm, other powerful factions refuse to do so.
But the government "does not even have a plan" for how it is going to disarm them, a diplomatic source in Baghdad said.
Two senior politicians told AFP that Zaidi, a newcomer to politics, had repeatedly said he was ready to "confront" the groups if they don't disarm.
For weeks, tensions grew until an unannounced truce was reached, with the intervention of senior politicians who are now hoping to work out a deal.
An Iraqi official said that "the issue needs time to reassure the factions, and prevent any confrontation between Iraqi forces and the armed groups".
Kazem al-Fartoussi, spokesperson for the Kataeb Sayyid al-Shuhada armed group, said the factions don't want a confrontation with the state because "there will be no winners".
But "our weapons are precious, so we have said these weapons are in exchange for sovereignty," including the withdrawal of foreign troops and an end to American political and economic interference.
Fartoussi said the factions are in talks with the government about "regulating" their weapons, as well as their relationship with the state, but he doesn't trust the US.
For the Americans and Israelis, their objective is "nothing other than eliminating the factions, not the weapons," Fartoussi said.
If the issue is the factions' "existence", then "we reject any discussion".
Israel Obliterates South Lebanon's Architectural Heritagehttps://english.aawsat.com/features/5323773-israel-obliterates-south-lebanons-architectural-heritage
Israel Obliterates South Lebanon's Architectural Heritage
The residence of Said Shahine, father of Ghaleb and Fahmi Shahine, which was completely destroyed in the city of Nabatieh (Kamel Jaber archive)
Daily attacks around the city of Nabatieh and the town of Kfar Rumman have not stopped the Zein family from launching work to restore “what can be restored” of the home of Youssef Bek Zein, which was damaged by intensive Israeli strikes several months ago.
Descendants of one of Nabatieh’s best-known political families see preserving their heritage as an act of defiance against Israel, which they say is erasing physical traces and memories from the land and seeking to eliminate historic homes with distinctive architecture, political family residences, and urban and historical landmarks of all kinds across South Lebanon.
During the two large-scale wars Israel waged on South Lebanon, airstrikes and demolitions wiped out dozens of heritage landmarks, including political family homes whose architecture and libraries documented periods of Jabal Amel’s political history over the past two centuries.
This photograph taken from the southern Lebanese village of Hanniyeh shows smoke rising from the site of a series of Israeli controlled explosions in the nearby village of al-Mansouri on September 28, 2026. (Photo by Kawnat HAJU / AFP)
In Nabatieh alone, Israeli bombardment razed 147 homes between 80 and 110 years old. Some had developed from houses originally built 200 years ago. They included heritage properties belonging to local political leaders, ministers and lawmakers who had played roles in Nabatieh and its surroundings over past decades.
The damage also extended to political family residences around Nabatieh, including the Asaad family home in Taybeh. Local activists say many old houses were razed along with it, including the home of Khalil Abdallah in Khiam, one of the region’s most prominent historical leaders, built in 1862.
Abdel Aziz Zein’s Home: A Cultural Role
The home of Youssef Bek Zein, heavily damaged by Israeli bombardment, is now among the last remaining heritage landmarks and architectural witnesses in the Nabatieh area following the loss of the Abdel Aziz Zein residence.
In recent years, that residence had become a cultural hub in the region. His son, Dr. Saad Zein, expanded it to host cultural and community activities.
“My family home, the Abdel Aziz Zein residence, was more than 80 years old,” Dr. Saad Zein told Asharq Al-Awsat. “An Israeli strike completely demolished the house and wiped out all its features — not only its architecture, but also its cultural role.”
The Abdel Aziz Zein residence (Saad Zein archive)
Zein said the house had served as a venue for cultural and social activities since at least 2000. He had established a small museum there documenting the history of Jabal Amel, and the house “became a cultural destination in the region.”
The residence was later expanded to include gardens and a diwaniya, a traditional reception space that is a central feature of southern Lebanese architecture. In recent years, it became known as the “Saad Zein House.”
The strike on the large residence also damaged the adjoining Zein family home. That residence had been a center of political and social leadership for more than a century. Built 150 years ago, it housed the Ottoman governor in the 19th century before ownership passed to the Zein family and Youssef Bek Zein took up residence there.
Even the Family Tombs Were Hit
Zein entered parliament after the proclamation of Greater Lebanon in 1924, and his family became one of Jabal Amel’s most prominent political families during the last century. Its parliamentary representation continued uninterrupted until 2018.
“The Youssef Bek Zein residence was severely damaged. The roof, courtyard and family tombs were hit, including Youssef Bek’s grave,” Dr. Saad Zein stated.
“We are now working intensively and quickly to restore the house so it can be usable again and remain a witness to a political era, given that the family is one of Jabal Amel’s founding families and has maintained a cultural, developmental and social presence — a role that continues with me and my uncle.”
Zein stressed that the targeting of political homes and urban and historical landmarks “aims to erase traces and memories from the land in order to sever the Lebanese people’s connection to their homes, land and heritage.”
Deliberate and Systematic Destruction
Cultural and social figures in Nabatieh broadly agree that what occurred during the wars of 2024 and 2026 amounted to the “systematic destruction of memory without any actual justification.”
They argue that the concentrated bombardment and leveling of longstanding family homes historically associated with political positions opposed to Hezbollah contradicts the Israeli military’s assertion that its strikes target only Hezbollah facilities and headquarters.
One particularly notable case was the leveling of the home of former lawmaker Habib Sadek, founder of the Cultural Council for South Lebanon, in Kfour, west of Nabatieh.
Sadek was among South Lebanon’s best-known political and cultural activists. He served in parliament in 1992 and was one of the most prominent chroniclers of Israeli violations in the south since the 1940s. He encouraged the publication of works sponsored by the Cultural Council and combined a political career with his work as a writer, poet and thinker.
Manuscripts Documenting Violations
Kamel Jaber, head of the Cultural Council’s Nabatieh branch, told Asharq Al-Awsat that after Sadek’s home in Khiam was demolished in 1977, the area remained under occupation until 2000 and the family was forced to live between Beirut and Nabatieh.
“The family was determined to build a house outside the city resembling the homes of southerners — meaning it would have a garden surrounded by pine trees, with roses blooming in it,” Jaber said.
“Sadek paid particular attention to a diwaniya on the lower floor of the house, where he kept many of the manuscripts he had presented through various radio programs, as well as writings from the 1960s and 1970s. He also created extensive libraries in the diwaniya containing books, manuscripts and the rest of his cultural legacy.”
Jaber said Sadek was “one of the most prominent cultural figures who wrote and published works and books about the south, documenting violations and various forms of Israeli occupation, whether related to ambitions over water, geography or other issues, and produced studies showing the harm inflicted on the south through occupation.”
From that perspective, Jaber said the targeting of the house “was a targeting of Habib Sadek, his role, legacy and career.” He ruled out any security-related reason for striking the house, which he said was “closed and checked daily by a caretaker.”
Erasing Architectural and Political Heritage
The devastation is viewed locally as part of an effort to eliminate Nabatieh’s urban, architectural and political heritage.
After the 2024 war, cultural figures in the city launched an initiative, involving civil society groups in cooperation with the municipality, to document heritage buildings lost to Israeli bombardment. The survey was updated just two weeks before this article was written.
It found that 147 homes had been completely razed, leaving only a very small number of such buildings standing.
During the 2026 war, what remained of the Fadl al-Fadl house in the Manshieh district was demolished. The house was built late in the last century and designed by an Egyptian architect. General Gouraud visited it in the 1920s during a trip to the south while serving as French high commissioner in Lebanon.
The home of former lawmaker Mohammed Bek al-Fadl, meanwhile, lost large sections after strikes hit its surroundings in 2024. The house is 102 years old. Jaber, who works to document local memory through a civil society organization in Nabatieh, said its new owner had decided to restore it.
The home of Mohammed Bek al-Fadl (Kamel Jaber archive)
Erasing Cultural Memory
Nabatieh residents see the campaign as targeting architecture that embodies the area’s cultural heritage and its social, political and urban memory.
In Nabatieh, Israeli strikes completely leveled the residence of the late minister and lawmaker Rafik Shahine, as well as the home of Said Shahine, father of lawmakers and ministers Ghaleb and Fahmi Shahine.
Other buildings lost in the strikes had been regarded as architectural masterpieces, including the palace of Dr. Bahjat al-Mirza, considered one of the city’s most beautiful homes because its facades featured carvings in stone. Mirza was among Nabatieh’s first physicians in the 20th century to open his home to provide medical care to residents.
Mahmoud Shahine’s house was also razed in 2026. The building had served as a school during the last century and was among the houses constructed on the remains of older homes built some 200 years ago.
On Sept. 6, 2026, an Israeli strike leveled the home of Dr. Adnan Sharif, a century-old architectural landmark.
The home of Dr. Adnan Sharif (Kamel Jaber archive)
The home of former lawmaker Anwar Sabbah, father of Sadek Sabbah, director of Sabbah Brothers television production company, was also demolished. Built on a hill in Nabatieh in the early 1990s, it was separate from the family residence in the city, which remained standing.
Strikes also razed Ghandour Hospital, one of the main hospitals that provided medical services to the Nabatieh area during the period of occupation beginning in the 1980s.
A War on History
Israeli strikes did not only target houses and mansions but also hit archaeological and heritage sites across the south.
A market dating to the Mamluk era in Nabatieh was heavily bombarded, leaving part of it in ruins. The capital of an ancient column was dislodged at a UNESCO-listed site in the southern coastal city of Tyre.
A religious site known as “Shamoun al-Safa,” visited by both Muslims and Christians in the southern town of Shamaa, was also razed, as was Shamaa’s Crusader castle.
There is also no information about the condition of “Ain al-Fawqa” in Taybeh after the area surrounding it in the town square was devastated. The water collection spring was built in a spiral form and contains architectural features resembling examples from the Roman and Byzantine periods. It was restored during the Ottoman era.
Culture Minister Ghassan Salame told Reuters last month that historic towns outside the designated area were pummeled with airstrikes, including Tyre and Nabatieh.
Heavy bombing hit the town of Tebnin, prompting fears that its Crusader fortress was also damaged, Salame said.
"Heritage is not only Roman and Phoenician antiquities,” he added. “Heritage is also historic buildings, archaeological sites, and buildings with a cultural function."
He expressed concern that the Israeli campaign could completely erase centuries of Lebanese history.
UNESCO, meanwhile, said in a statement that it was concerned about the situation in Tyre, a World Heritage site under the agency’s enhanced protection.
It added it was deeply concerned by reports of damage to Shamaa Castle in South Lebanon and fighting near Beaufort Castle, denouncing what it described as “unlawful attacks on cultural property.”
'Currently Impossible': North Korea Defections in Freefallhttps://english.aawsat.com/features/5323359-currently-impossible-north-korea-defections-freefall
'Currently Impossible': North Korea Defections in Freefall
Visitors look towards North Korea, which has worked to seal off links to the outside world. Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP
A building-sized North Korean flag waves from a tower on the de facto border with South Korea, marking territory that experts say has become nearly impossible to escape.
The combined total of North Koreans to reach South Korea in the past six years is less than the number that typically defected each year for decades -- and appears to be declining further in 2026, said AFP.
The main cause is leader Kim Jong Un's aim to preserve his family dynasty by sealing the country off from the outside, keeping people in and information out, experts say.
"As I understand it, bringing family members directly from North Korea is currently impossible," 29-year-old Chae Yoon-seo, who fled in 2019, told AFP.
She swam across a river into China at night with a smuggler's help, and travelled through Laos, Vietnam and Thailand before finally flying to South Korea.
Defections to the South hit a peak of more than 2,900 in 2009 and stayed well above 1,000 per year for the next decade.
But there were just 63 in the first half of this year -- down by over a third from the same period in 2025, said Seoul's Unification Ministry.
- 'Soviet-style border' -
Arrivals have fluctuated over the decades, but plunged sharply during the Covid pandemic when many nations shut their borders.
A key change in North Korea, however, started years before.
After taking power in 2011, Kim began restricting the informal trade and migration links along the roughly 1,415-kilometer (880-mile) northern border with China.
In addition to being an economic lifeline, the Chinese border region has also been the first step in most defectors' escapes.
The long frontier was relatively porous, unlike the heavily mined, fenced and surveilled Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that serves as the Koreas' de facto border.
Along the boundary with China, Kim's government has erected fences and installed cameras as well as strips of sand that preserve the footprints of anyone who crosses.
"North Koreans built a real Soviet-style border security system," said Andrei Lankov, an expert on the North at Kookmin University in Seoul.
Beijing has helped too, said Lankov, noting China's preference to keep the status quo of the Kim dynasty by opposing potential instability from defectors or their supporters.
As part of its efforts, China reportedly has put in place hundreds of facial recognition cameras, noted Rachel Minyoung Lee, senior fellow with the Stimson Center's 38 North.
She added that Beijing also added more patrol boats and new or planned deportation facilities along its northeastern border.
- Ousted, killed or exiled -
The roughly 34,500 defectors to reach the South since 1998 are a fraction of North Korea's 26.6 million people, UN figures show, but the plunging number of escapes has consequences.
"Defectors are the main source of information about the North," said Fyodor Tertitsky, lecturer at Seoul's Korea University, noting both South Korean intelligence and researchers interrogate them.
Though some people still do get out.
Defector Gyuri Kang's 2023 escape by boat with her mother and aunt -- across the maritime border with the South, an extremely rare feat -- was a "miracle", she told a UN hearing.
She is also a case in point for why North Korea has made great efforts to seal itself off.
Kang noted the influence of South Korean dramas smuggled in on USB drives, finding them "so refreshing and more credible than North Korea state propaganda".
"North Korean authorities are keenly aware of the impact of outside media," she said.
In 2020, North Korea made possessing foreign media a crime punishable by years-long forced labor terms -- and potential death sentences for large-scale distribution, according to Amnesty International.
Lankov, from Kookmin University, said external information is the greatest threat to the long-term survival of North Korea's leadership.
"If they let their people interact with the outside world, they are highly likely to be overthrown, and maybe killed or driven into exile," he added.
Chae, the defector, said her hope was that the North's isolated people are not one day simply forgotten by the outside world.
"These days, there are a lot of cynical reactions on helping other countries, so I am a bit worried that one day, interest in North Korean human rights might fade away as well," she added.
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