Russia’s Threat to Pull Out of Ukraine Grain Deal Raises Fears About Global Food Security 

A harvester is seen in the field during harvest near the town of Shabla, Bulgaria, 10 July 2023. (EPA)
A harvester is seen in the field during harvest near the town of Shabla, Bulgaria, 10 July 2023. (EPA)
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Russia’s Threat to Pull Out of Ukraine Grain Deal Raises Fears About Global Food Security 

A harvester is seen in the field during harvest near the town of Shabla, Bulgaria, 10 July 2023. (EPA)
A harvester is seen in the field during harvest near the town of Shabla, Bulgaria, 10 July 2023. (EPA)

Concerns are growing that Russia will not extend a United Nations-brokered deal that allows grain to flow from Ukraine to parts of the world struggling with hunger, with ships no longer heading to the war-torn country's Black Sea ports and food exports dwindling.

Türkiye and the UN negotiated the breakthrough accord last summer to ease a global food crisis, along with a separate agreement with Russia to facilitate shipments of its food and fertilizer. Moscow insists it's still facing hurdles, though data shows it has been exporting record amounts of wheat.

Russian officials repeatedly say there are no grounds for extending the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is up for its fourth renewal Monday. It's something they have threatened before — then have twice gone on to extend the deal for two months instead of the four months outlined in the agreement.

The UN and others are striving to keep the fragile deal intact, with Ukraine and Russia both major suppliers of wheat, barley, vegetable oil and other food products that countries in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia rely on. It has allowed Ukraine to ship 32.8 million metric tons (36.2 million tons) of grain, more than half of it to developing nations.

The deal has helped lower global prices of food commodities like wheat after they surged to record highs following the invasion last year, but that relief has not reached kitchen tables.

Russia's exit would cut off a source for World Food Program aid for countries at risk of famine, including Somalia, Ethiopia and Afghanistan, and compound food security problems in vulnerable places struggling with conflict, economic crisis and drought.

"Russia gets a lot of good public will for continuing this agreement," said Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. "There would be a cost to pay in terms of public perception and global goodwill, I think, as far as Russia is concerned" if the deal isn't extended.

The amount of grain leaving Ukraine already has dropped, with Russia accused of slowing joint inspections of ships by Russian, Ukrainian, UN and Turkish officials and refusing to allow more vessels to join the initiative.

Average daily inspections — meant to ensure vessels carry only food and not weapons that could aid either side — have fallen from a peak of 11 in October to just over two in June.

That has led to a decline in grain exports, from a high of 4.2 million metric tons in October to 1.3 million in May, a low for the year-old initiative. They rose to 2 million in June as shipment sizes grew.

If the deal isn't extended, "the countries that had relied on Ukraine for their imports are going to have to look at other sources for imports, very likely Russia, which is something that I imagine Russia was intending," said Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The UN has been negotiating with Russia to stick with the initiative, with spokesman Stephane Dujarric saying Monday that top officials are "doing whatever we can to ensure the continuation of all of the agreements."

Ukraine's Infrastructure Ministry said Tuesday on Facebook that the final two ships are loading grain — heading for Egypt — while 29 vessels are waiting in the waters off Türkiye because Russia has refused to allow their inspection.

"Ukrainian agricultural products play a significant role in global food security," Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said. But "for the past few months, the grain corridor has been practically closed."

Russia insists the agreement hasn't worked for its own exports, blaming Western sanctions for hindering financing and insurance.

While sanctions don't affect food and fertilizer, Moscow is seeking carveouts from restrictions on the Russian Agricultural Bank, as well as movement on its ammonia, a key ingredient in fertilizer, to a Ukrainian Black Sea port. But the ammonia pipeline has been damaged in the war, the UN said.

"There is still time to implement the part of the agreements that pertains to our country. So far, this part has not been fulfilled," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters last week. "And so, at the moment, unfortunately, we don’t see any particular grounds for extending this deal."

Russia, however, has increased its wheat exports to all-time highs following a large harvest. Shipments went from 33 million metric tons in 2021 to 44 million metric tons last year to expectations of 46 million this year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's shipments have fallen by around 60%, from 19 million tons in 2021 to predictions of about 7 or 8 million tons this year — a big hit to its agriculture-dependent economy.

With less from Ukraine and more from Russia, the world's available wheat stocks are the same as in 2021 — and there is enough of it to go around, said Peter Meyer, head of grain analytics at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Europe and Argentina are expected to boost wheat shipments, while Brazil saw a banner year for corn, of which Ukraine is also a major supplier. Meyer wouldn’t expect more than a temporary bump to grain prices on world markets if the Black Sea deal isn’t renewed.

"Markets just adapt extremely quickly," he said. "The fact of the matter is that the global grain markets, they balance each other out."

Ukraine can send its food by land or river through Europe, so it wouldn’t be completely cut off from selling grain, but those routes have a lower capacity than sea shipments and have stirred disunity in the European Union.

"We are a cat running out of lives in this situation," said Simon Evenett, professor of international trade and economic development at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland. "It only takes one thing to go wrong before we’re into trouble."

While the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index has fallen below the record highs it hit when Russian troops entered Ukraine, food costs were already high because of COVID-19, conflict and drought.

Then Russia's war helped push up the costs to produce food — including energy, fertilizer and transportation.

In developing nations increasingly relying on imported food, from Kenya to Syria, weakening currencies are keeping local prices high because they are paying in US dollars.

"With approximately 80% of East Africa’s grain being exported from Russia and Ukraine, over 50 million people across East Africa are facing hunger, and food prices have shot up by nearly 40% this year," said Shashwat Saraf, the International Rescue Committee's regional emergency director for East Africa.

"It is vital for the international community to not only forge a long-term deal but also build durable solutions to tackle food insecurity," he said.



Father of Six Killed ‘For Piece of Bread’ During Gaza Aid Distribution

 Palestinians carry the body of Hossam Wafi who, according to family members, was killed in an Israeli strike, during his funeral in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Monday, June 2, 2025. (AP)
Palestinians carry the body of Hossam Wafi who, according to family members, was killed in an Israeli strike, during his funeral in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Monday, June 2, 2025. (AP)
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Father of Six Killed ‘For Piece of Bread’ During Gaza Aid Distribution

 Palestinians carry the body of Hossam Wafi who, according to family members, was killed in an Israeli strike, during his funeral in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Monday, June 2, 2025. (AP)
Palestinians carry the body of Hossam Wafi who, according to family members, was killed in an Israeli strike, during his funeral in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Monday, June 2, 2025. (AP)

Cries of grief echoed across southern Gaza's Nasser Hospital Monday as dozens came to mourn Hossam Wafi, after the father of six was killed while attempting to get supplies to feed his family.

His mother, Nahla Wafi, sobbed uncontrollably over her son, who was among 31 people killed by Israeli fire while trying to reach a food distribution site the previous day, according to the Palestinian territory's civil defense agency.

"He went to get food for his daughters and came back dead," said Nahla Wafi, who lost two sons and a nephew on Sunday.

Hossam Wafi had travelled with his brother and nephew to a newly established distribution center in the southern city of Rafah.

"They were just trying to buy (flour). But the drone came down on them," his mother said, as she tried to comfort four of her granddaughters in the courtyard of Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis.

Israel has faced growing condemnation over the humanitarian crisis in the war-ravaged Gaza Strip, where the United Nations has warned the entire population faces the risk of famine.

-'Go there and get bombed'-

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said that its field hospital in Rafah received 179 cases on Sunday, including 21 pronounced dead on arrival.

The ICRC said that all those wounded "said they had been trying to reach an aid distribution site", and that "the majority suffered gunshot or shrapnel wounds".

Israeli authorities and the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a US and Israeli-backed outfit that runs the distribution centers, denied any such incident took place.

The military instead said that troops fired "warning shots" at people who approached them one kilometer away from the Rafah distribution site before dawn.

A witness told AFP thousands of people gathered at the area, known locally as the Al-Alam junction, between 2:00 and 4:00 am (2300 GMT and 0100 GMT) in the hopes of reaching the distribution center.

At Nasser Hospital, Hossam Wafi's young daughters called out for their father, kissing his body wrapped in a white shroud, before it was taken away.

Outside the hospital, dozens of men stood in silence before the body, praying. Some cried as the remains were taken away, one of them holding the father's face until he was gently pulled away.

His uncle, Ali Wafi, told AFP he felt angry his nephew was killed while trying to get aid.

"They go there and get bombed -- airstrikes, tanks, shelling -- all for a piece of bread," he said.

"He went for a bite of bread, not for anything else. What was he supposed to do? He had to feed his little kids. And the result? He's getting buried today," he added.

- Militarized aid -

The deaths in Rafah were one of two deadly incidents reported by Gaza's civil defense agency on Sunday around the GHF centers, which the UN says contravene basic humanitarian principles and appear designed to cater to Israeli military objectives.

There have been several other reports of chaotic scenes and warning shots fired in connection with the distribution sites over the past week.

The UN's humanitarian agency (OCHA) published a video of one such distribution site in central Gaza's Netzarim corridor on Thursday.

A large crowd is seen gathered around four long corridors made from metal fences installed in the middle of an arid landscape, corralling men and women into files to receive flour.

The distribution site and its waiting area sit on a flattened piece of land surrounded by massive mounds of soil and sand.

It is manned by English-speaking security guards travelling in armored vehicles.

Palestinians exiting the distribution area carry cardboard boxes sometimes bearing a "GHF" logo, as well as wooden pallets presumably to be repurposed as fuel or structures for shelter.

In the large crowd gathered outside the gated corridors, some men are seen shoving each other, and one woman complains that her food package was stolen.

Hossam Wafi's uncle Ali said he wished Gaza's people could safely get aid.

"People take the risk (to reach the distribution site), just so they can survive."