Bombings, Assassinations in Algeria, but ‘Civil War Still Far Away’

Algerian security forces in the Bab El Oued neighborhood, once considered a stronghold of the Islamic Salvation Front in the Algerian capital on January 17, 1992. (AFP/Getty Images)
Algerian security forces in the Bab El Oued neighborhood, once considered a stronghold of the Islamic Salvation Front in the Algerian capital on January 17, 1992. (AFP/Getty Images)
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Bombings, Assassinations in Algeria, but ‘Civil War Still Far Away’

Algerian security forces in the Bab El Oued neighborhood, once considered a stronghold of the Islamic Salvation Front in the Algerian capital on January 17, 1992. (AFP/Getty Images)
Algerian security forces in the Bab El Oued neighborhood, once considered a stronghold of the Islamic Salvation Front in the Algerian capital on January 17, 1992. (AFP/Getty Images)

In the midst of Britain’s deliberations on handling and integrating radical Islamists, as well as analyzing the “confessions” of those involved in terrorist bombings to determine whether they were extracted under torture or not, Algeria stood as an indisputable witness to a protracted and violent period, commencing in the early 1990s, ultimately being known as the “Black Decade.”

Daily, news of bombings and assassinations carried out by armed groups against security forces, particularly targeting intellectuals, journalists, and unionists perceived as supporting the Algerian government, continued to unfold.

Supporters of the Islamic Salvation Front (ISF), the Islamic party on the verge of winning power before the cancellation of elections in January 1992, were responsible for much of the violence, as was the case with the bombing of Houari Boumediene Airport in the Algerian capital in August of that year.

However, there were also other armed groups that adopted far more extremist positions than the ISF and carried out some of the most heinous acts of violence witnessed during that era.

One prominent group at the time was the Armed Islamic Group, which later succeeded in unifying a portion of the ISF and other factions under its banner within the framework of what was known as the “Unity Meeting” in 1994.

Amid the near-daily assassinations and bombings, Algeria appeared to be on the brink of a “civil war.”

There was also a growing impression that radical Islamists could succeed in seizing power and overthrowing the government, which was supported by the military and assumed control following the resignation of President Chadli Bendjedid at that time.

That was largely the image that Algeria projected at the time, at least in many international media outlets.

However, it was a false image, as confirmed by the British Ambassador to Algeria, Christopher Battiscombe.

The ambassador acknowledged, in correspondence with the Foreign Office in London (preserved in the British National Archives), that Algeria was indeed witnessing bloody violence but also spoke of the “ordinary life” being experienced in the Algerian capital.

He added that the “civil war” being discussed was still “very much distant” from the reality on the ground.

In addition to the security situation, the ambassador’s correspondences also reveal that the British appeared to be “reserved” in the face of French pressure to provide financial assistance to the Algerian government.

As is well-known, the Algerian authorities were in desperate need of such aid at the time, whether for financing their war against armed groups or for launching projects that could satisfy segments of the population who might be swayed by Islamists in light of the deteriorating conditions in the country.

On March 1, 1993, Battiscombe wrote a letter to the Middle East and North Africa Department at the Foreign Office in London, stating that the ambassador largely agreed with what was stated in a previous letter from the department regarding the security situation in Algeria.

In the correspondence, Battiscombe stated that the level of terrorist events has largely remained unchanged over the past 12 months, with a steady stream of minor attacks, assassinations of policemen, and bombings in public places.

According to Battiscombe, the attacks were occasionally punctuated by significant incidents such as the airport bombing in August, the ambush in which 5 policemen were killed in December, the killing of 4 other policemen in a gun attack in the capital, and the failed assassination attempt against the then Minister of Defense.

Battiscombe highly doubted whether Algerian authorities can ever put an end to such incidents, much more than the British security forces can prevent terrorist attacks by the Irish Republican Army in the UK.

However, while the security situation in Algeria seemed to be heading towards complete chaos, it now appears to me that the terrorists will not succeed in turning Algeria into an ungovernable country or forcing the government to make a radical change in its course, noted Battiscombe.

The ambassador added that despite the continued curfews and the presence of checkpoints guarded by visibly concerned police officers, he believed that most visitors to the Algerian capital are surprised by the generally normal life there.

“We are certainly still far away from the civil war that is often written about in Western media analyses,” wrote Battiscombe.

As for French pressure to provide financial assistance to the Algerian government, it is worth noting here that the European Currency Unit (ECU) was the currency unit used in Europe at that time before the adoption of the “Euro” and the transformation of the European Group into the EU.

The Fourth Protocol of the European Group (covering the period from 1992 to 1996) called for a more generous treatment towards Mediterranean countries such as Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia.

The protocol increased the European Group’s spending by 28% compared to the Third Protocol and provided funding for projects carried out by Algeria and its partners in the Arab Maghreb Union.

The Fourth Protocol also allowed Algeria to access larger loans and draw on allocations of 70 million European currency units, compared to 54 million units in the Third Protocol. This move coincided with a parallel effort by the World Bank, which increased its assistance to Algeria as part of an economic reform program.

The actual reason for the British reservations regarding the French initiative to provide European financial assistance to Algeria remained unclear.

However, it is known that at that time, radical Islamists accused European countries that supported the Algerian government of backing “military rule” in their country.

Extremists also issued threats of retaliation against countries that provided aid to the Algerian authorities, which may have raised concerns among some nations that feared their assistance to Algeria could lead to extremist attacks on their interests or citizens.

 

 



The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon's Hezbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline.

The deal struck on Nov. 27 to halt the war required Hezbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers.

So far, Israel has withdrawn from just two of the dozens of towns it holds in southern Lebanon. And it has continued striking what it says are bases belonging to Hezbollah, which it accuses of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be confiscated and destroyed, The AP reported.

Hezbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.

Yet despite accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations, the truce is likely to hold, analysts say. That is good news for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hezbollah’s hand, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 — the day after Hamas launched a deadly attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than 1 million Lebanese people were displaced.

Hezbollah rockets forced some 60,000 from their homes in northern Israel, and killed 76 people in Israel, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed during operations inside Lebanon.

Here’s a look at the terms of the ceasefire and its prospects for ending hostilities over the long-term.

What does the ceasefire agreement say? The agreement says that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, but that they can act in self-defense, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted.

The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from launching attacks into Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon — activities that might eventually be expanded to the rest of Lebanon, although it is not explicit in the ceasefire agreement.

The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement.

“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad, the analyst, said.

Is the ceasefire being implemented? Hezbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are militant sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.

Israeli forces have so far withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon - Khiam and Shamaa. They remain in some 60 others, according to the International Organization for Migration, and around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.

Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the UN Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and Dec. 22, 2024.

The complaint said the attacks have hindered the Lebanese army's efforts to deploy in the south and uphold its end of the ceasefire agreement.

Until Israel hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israeli troops have been destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and underground tunnels. Lebanese authorities say Israel has also destroyed civilian houses and infrastructure.

What happens after the ceasefire has been in place for 60 days? Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.

Shoshani said Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army's control of the areas it has already withdrawn from, and that while it would prefer a faster transfer of power, security is its most important objective.

Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be “sacred,” said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.

Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days past the start of the ceasefire, the militant group might return to attacking them. But Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said Wednesday that, for now, the group is holding off to give the Lebanese state a chance to "take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.

Over the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered major blows to its leadership, weapons and forces from a barrage of Israeli airstrikes, and a ground invasion that led to fierce battles in southern Lebanon. The fall of Assad was another big setback.

“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn't fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni. And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.