Sudan's 100 Days of War between Rival Military Factions

Women and children gather in a building at a camp for the internally displaced in al-Suwar, about 15 kilometers north of Wad Madani in Sudan, on June 22, 2023. (Photo by AFP)
Women and children gather in a building at a camp for the internally displaced in al-Suwar, about 15 kilometers north of Wad Madani in Sudan, on June 22, 2023. (Photo by AFP)
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Sudan's 100 Days of War between Rival Military Factions

Women and children gather in a building at a camp for the internally displaced in al-Suwar, about 15 kilometers north of Wad Madani in Sudan, on June 22, 2023. (Photo by AFP)
Women and children gather in a building at a camp for the internally displaced in al-Suwar, about 15 kilometers north of Wad Madani in Sudan, on June 22, 2023. (Photo by AFP)

A war that broke out in mid-April between Sudan's army and the paramilitary Rapid Response Forces (RSF) has devastated the capital Khartoum, caused a sharp increase in ethnically-driven violence in Darfur, and displaced over three million people, Reuters said.
The following is a timeline of major events since fighting began 100 days ago:
April 15 - After weeks of tensions building over a plan to hand power to civilians, heavy fighting erupts in Khartoum and clashes are reported in several other cities.
RSF forces loyal to Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, storm the residence of army chief General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, as they try to seize strategic sites in the heart of the capital.
April 16 - The UN World Food Program says it is temporarily suspending operations in Sudan, one of its biggest programs globally, after three of its staff were among aid workers killed in early fighting. The WFP says on May 1 that it is resuming work, alongside warnings that more than three million more people could slip into hunger and farmers may be unable to plant crops.
April 21 - The number of residents fleeing Khartoum accelerates as areas across the city are subjected to army air strikes, clashes, and looting by the RSF. Many seek refuge outside Khartoum and some head for Sudan's borders.
April 22 - The United States says special operations forces have evacuated all its embassy staff from Khartoum. France, Britain and other nations follow, leaving Sudanese worrying they will be left to fend for themselves.
April 25 - Ahmed Haroun, a former minister wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges he committed crimes in Darfur, says he and other ex-officials from ousted leader Omar al-Bashir's administration have walked free from prison.
Officials later confirm that Bashir, who is also wanted by the ICC, had been transferred to a military hospital before fighting began.
May 5 - More than 1 million polio vaccines intended for children have been destroyed as a result of looting, UNICEF says, following warnings that the provision of medical care and hospital capacity is collapsing as a result of the fighting. The WFP also reports extensive looting of its supplies.
May 20 - At talks convened by Saudi Arabia and the United States in Jeddah, Sudan's warring factions agree to a seven-day ceasefire designed to allow delivery of humanitarian aid. Violations of the deal by both sides are later reported, and aid agencies still struggle to deliver relief. The Jeddah talks are adjourned in June.
May 29 - The head of the UN refugee agency says estimates that one million people could flee Sudan by October may prove conservative, warning that arms and people trafficking could spread across a fragile region.
June 8 - The mobilization of the powerful SPLM-N rebel force in South Kordofan raises fears of the conflict extending through Sudan's southern regions. Clashes in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states later caused residents to flee.
June 14 - West Darfur Governor Khamis Abbakar is killed hours after a TV interview in which he accused the RSF and allied militias of conducting genocide against non-Arab groups.
Thousands of civilians try to escape by foot to nearby Chad following his death but are targeted as they flee.
June 19 - International donors pledge $1.5 billion in aid for Sudan and the surrounding region at a fundraising conference in Geneva, about half the estimated needs for a deepening humanitarian crisis.
July 13 - Egypt begins a new mediation attempt between Sudan's rival factions at a summit for Sudan's neighbors in Cairo. Ethiopia's leader says the push should be coordinated with an existing initiative led by East African regional bloc IGAD, amid concerns about competing and ineffective diplomatic efforts.
July 14 - The US-based Sudan Conflict Observatory reports that the RSF and aligned forces were suspected of the targeted destruction of at least 26 communities in Darfur. A day earlier, the International Criminal Court said it was investigating violence in Darfur. The RSF says hostilities there are tribal.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.