Recent Coups in West and Central Africa

Streets in Niger's capital Niamey are deserted as elements of the presidential guard moved against President Mohamed Bazoum Wednesday July 26 2023. (AP)
Streets in Niger's capital Niamey are deserted as elements of the presidential guard moved against President Mohamed Bazoum Wednesday July 26 2023. (AP)
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Recent Coups in West and Central Africa

Streets in Niger's capital Niamey are deserted as elements of the presidential guard moved against President Mohamed Bazoum Wednesday July 26 2023. (AP)
Streets in Niger's capital Niamey are deserted as elements of the presidential guard moved against President Mohamed Bazoum Wednesday July 26 2023. (AP)

Niger's presidential guards were holding President Mohamed Bazoum inside his palace in the capital Niamey on Wednesday, in what the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union are calling an attempted coup.

It marks the ninth coup or attempted power grab in just over three years in West and Central Africa, a region that over the last decade had made strides to shed its reputation as a "coup belt", only for persistent insecurity and corruption to open the door to military leaders.

Here is a list of recent successful coups.

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso's army ousted President Roch Kabore in January 2022, blaming him for failing to contain violence by extremist militants.

Coup leader Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba pledged to restore security, but attacks worsened, eroding morale in the armed forces leading to a second coup eight months later when current junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traore, seized power in September following a mutiny.

Mali

A group of Malian colonels led by Assimi Goita ousted President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in August 2020. The coup followed anti-government protests over deteriorating security, contested legislative elections and allegations of corruption.

Under pressure from Mali's West African neighbors, the junta agreed to cede power to a civilian-led interim government tasked with overseeing an 18-month transition to democratic elections in February 2022.

But the coup leaders clashed with the interim president, retired colonel Bah Ndaw, and engineered a second coup in May 2021. Goita, who had served as interim vice president, was elevated to the presidency.

ECOWAS lifted some of the sanctions on Mali after the military rulers proposed a two-year transition to democracy and published a new electoral law. The country is scheduled to hold a presidential election in February 2024 to return to constitutional rule.

Chad

Chad's army took power in April 2021 after President Idriss Deby was killed on the battlefield while visiting troops fighting rebels in the north.

Under Chadian law, the speaker of parliament should have become president. But a military council stepped in and dissolved parliament in the name of ensuring stability.

Deby's son, General Mahamat Idriss Deby, was named interim president and tasked with overseeing an 18-month transition to elections.

The unconstitutional transfer of power led to riots in the capital N'Djamena that were but down by the military.

Guinea

Special forces commander Colonel Mamady Doumbouya ousted President Alpha Conde in September 2021. A year earlier, Conde had changed the constitution to circumvent limits that would have prevented him from standing for a third term, triggering widespread rioting.

Doumbouya became interim president and promised a transition to democratic elections within three years.

ECOWAS rejected the timeline and imposed sanctions on junta members and their relatives, including freezing their bank accounts. The military regime has since proposed to start the 24-month transition in January 2023, but opposition parties say it has done little to put in place institutions and a roadmap to return to constitutional rule.



Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
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Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he would meet former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia after his regime fell in Damascus. But what will Putin say to his former ally? And how might their first exchange unfold, given Russia’s role in helping Assad escape on a chaotic night?

The Kremlin, known for staging Putin’s meetings with precision, might opt to limit media coverage this time. Putin could be seen sitting at a small table with Assad, now on asylum

in Moscow, in a soundless scene—one that leaves little room for formal pleasantries.

Why has Putin announced plans to meet Assad? Is it to reprimand him? Many in Russia believe Assad’s stubbornness has hurt Moscow’s efforts, threatened its gains in Syria, and could eventually risk its key military presence there.

As details remain unclear, Russian experts are racing to analyze developments in Syria and outline scenarios for the next phase.

Some Russian experts have painted grim scenarios. A member of the prestigious Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy warned of potential risks, including a prolonged conflict with civil war elements, a humanitarian catastrophe with millions of refugees, escalating migration in Europe, and rising tensions among nations like Israel, the US, and Iran.

He also predicted a new wave of international terrorism that could reach far beyond the region.

Other experts echoed this pessimism. One posted an image of a Syrian dissident stepping on a statue of Assad’s father, warning that “this is just the beginning.” Another blamed the crisis on the “Obama curse,” citing the West’s interference, while a third shared a bleak analysis titled, “We Must Pray for Syria.”

So far, Russian media and think tanks have avoided any optimistic outlooks for Syria’s future.

Experts, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, believe Moscow may be preparing to handle one of three possible scenarios in Syria.

The first, most favorable for Russia’s interests, involves Moscow reaching an agreement with the new Syrian authorities to maintain its military presence for a limited period.

This could mean replacing the current 49-year agreements with a five-year deal to facilitate a gradual Russian withdrawal. Such an arrangement could help the new leadership in Syria manage Western pressure to cut ties with Moscow.

The second scenario envisions Russia giving up its airbase in Hmeimim while retaining a significant presence in Tartus. This would mirror agreements from 1972, which allowed Russian naval vessels to use the Tartus logistics center in the Mediterranean. This compromise would preserve Russia’s interests while reducing Western pressure on Damascus.

The third scenario involves a full Russian withdrawal from both bases, with Moscow later seeking agreements for shared use of air and sea ports. Such agreements, similar to those Russia has signed with other countries, are less likely to provoke Western opposition.

Regardless of the outcome, the Kremlin has yet to develop a clear strategy for dealing with the emerging situation in Syria.

Key questions remain, including how to curb Iran’s regional influence, manage Türkiye and Israel’s growing roles in Syria, and establish a new regional balance that secures Moscow’s minimum interests.