Iranian-US Prisoner Swap Deal Awaits Transfer of Funds

 The amphibious assault ship USS Bataan sailed in the Red Sea last Tuesday (AP)
The amphibious assault ship USS Bataan sailed in the Red Sea last Tuesday (AP)
TT
20

Iranian-US Prisoner Swap Deal Awaits Transfer of Funds

 The amphibious assault ship USS Bataan sailed in the Red Sea last Tuesday (AP)
The amphibious assault ship USS Bataan sailed in the Red Sea last Tuesday (AP)

US and Iranian delegations gathered in separate hotels in Doha – “within sight of each other, but not within earshot”, to reach an agreement on a deal to release five Americans detained in Iran, CNN quoted a US official as saying.

However, the official, who is familiar with the negotiations, stressed that the on-and-off hotel meetings in the Qatari capital, which were being held for over more than a year, saw no face-to-face meetings between the US and Iranian delegations.

Qatari officials conveyed messages back and forth, CNN reported, with some of the logistical work happening in the most discreet way possible, via text thread between the Qataris and the US diplomats.

The indirect talks were part of a two-year process that led to the agreement announced this week, a potential diplomatic breakthrough between the two arch-rivals who do not directly speak to each other.

On Thursday, those intense efforts yielded the first signs of a deal, when Iran released four Americans held in the notorious Evin prison and transferred them to house arrest, with a fifth American prisoner also under home confinement.

CNN quoted well-informed sources as saying that Washington rejected overt initiatives to deal directly with Tehran on this issue.

American officials approached the negotiations on the basis that there were “no guarantees” with the Iranians. But just when things seemed to be going well, the US government began reaching out to Congress and the families of the US detainees.

On Thursday, the US source said that American officials were in direct contact with the Swiss ambassador to Iran to get an update on progress on the ground. Switzerland has been sponsoring US interests in Iran for four decades.

The path was described as a step-by-step process, and American officials stressed that the indirect negotiations were ongoing and sensitive.

One component of the deal is an expected prisoner exchange between the United States and Iran, and the other includes allowing $6 billion in Iranian funds frozen in a restricted account in South Korea to be transferred more easily for “unsanctioned trade” in goods, such as food and medicine, by moving them to restricted accounts in Qatar.

According to CNN, the sources said that the money came from oil sales that were authorized and placed in accounts set up under the Trump administration.

Sources familiar with the deal said the process of transferring the money to Qatar was likely to take between 30 and 45 days, and that the money would be moved through Switzerland before arriving in Qatar.

According to the Associated Press, the transfer process would take so long because Iran did not want to freeze assets in South Korean won, which are less convertible than euros or dollars.

US officials say that while South Korea approves of the conversion, it is worried that converting this big amount into other currencies at once would negatively affect its exchange rate and the economy.

Thus, the country is proceeding slowly, sending smaller amounts of frozen assets for eventual transfer to the central bank in Qatar.

While the Biden administration describes the process - with the ultimate goal of securing the release of Americans - as a long road, CNN quoted those sources as saying that bringing Americans home has been a priority since the beginning of Biden’s term.

However, experts in Iranian affairs criticized these allegations, accusing the Biden administration of providing billions of dollars to support Iran’s activities.

Richard Goldberg, vice president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said on X (formerly Twitter) that the billions of dollars were in support of a wide range of illegal activities, the completion of construction of a new, hardened underground facility, and establishment of nuclear threshold status.

For his part, Henry Rome, a researcher in Iranian affairs at The Washington Institute, said on the X platform that the deal for Iran to reduce its uranium stocks by 60 percent was a constructive step in implementing the American-Iranian understandings that were reached in Oman.

Rome expected Tehran to use the diplomatic progress to try to divert social pressure ahead of the anniversary of the outbreak of popular protests after the death of Mahsa Amini.

However, some observers believe that two main reasons could be behind this agreement. First, Iran’s attempt to avoid sanctions that could be imposed during the next meeting of the IAEA’s Board of Experts, through its “voluntary” reduction of its stockpile of enriched uranium, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Second, the unprecedented US military build-up in the Gulf waters, which was considered a “firm” message to Tehran.

On Saturday, US forces and their Western allies issued a new warning to cargo ships transiting the strategic Strait of Hormuz to stay as far as possible from Iranian territorial waters to avoid being captured. This was considered a stark notice, amid tensions between Iran and the United States, despite the ongoing negotiations, according to the Associated Press.



Trump Carves Up World and International Order with It

Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
TT
20

Trump Carves Up World and International Order with It

Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP

By casting doubt on the world order, Donald Trump risks dragging the globe back into an era where great powers impose their imperial will on the weak, analysts warn.
Russia wants Ukraine, China demands Taiwan and now the US president seems to be following suit, whether by coveting Canada as the "51st US state", insisting "we've got to have" Greenland or kicking Chinese interests out of the Panama Canal.
Where the United States once defended state sovereignty and international law, Trump's disregard for his neighbors' borders and expansionist ambitions mark a return to the days when the world was carved up into spheres of influence.
As recently as Wednesday, US defense secretary Pete Hegseth floated the idea of an American military base to secure the Panama Canal, a strategic waterway controlled by the United States until 1999 which Trump's administration has vowed to "take back".
Hegseth's comments came nearly 35 years after the United States invaded to topple Panama's dictator Manuel Noriega, harking back to when successive US administrations viewed Latin America as "America's backyard".
"The Trump 2.0 administration is largely accepting the familiar great power claim to 'spheres of influence'," Professor Gregory O. Hall, of the University of Kentucky, told AFP.
Indian diplomat Jawed Ashraf warned that by "speaking openly about Greenland, Canada, Panama Canal", "the new administration may have accelerated the slide" towards a return to great power domination.
The empire strikes back
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has posed as the custodian of an international order "based on the ideas of countries' equal sovereignty and territorial integrity", said American researcher Jeffrey Mankoff, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
But those principles run counter to how Russia and China see their own interests, according to the author of "Empires of Eurasia: how imperial legacies shape international security".
Both countries are "themselves products of empires and continue to function in many ways like empires", seeking to throw their weight around for reasons of prestige, power or protection, Mankoff said.
That is not to say that spheres of influence disappeared with the fall of the Soviet Union.
"Even then, the US and Western allies sought to expand their sphere of influence eastward into what was the erstwhile Soviet and then the Russian sphere of influence," Ashraf, a former adviser to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, pointed out.
But until the return of Trump, the United States exploited its position as the "policeman of the world" to ward off imperial ambitions while pushing its own interests.
Now that Trump appears to view the cost of upholding a rules-based order challenged by its rivals and increasingly criticized in the rest of the world as too expensive, the United States is contributing to the cracks in the facade with Russia and China's help.
And as the international order weakens, the great powers "see opportunities to once again behave in an imperial way", said Mankoff.
Yalta yet again
As at Yalta in 1945, when the United States and the Soviet Union divided the post-World War II world between their respective zones of influence, Washington, Beijing and Moscow could again agree to carve up the globe anew.
"Improved ties between the United States and its great-power rivals, Russia and China, appear to be imminent," Derek Grossman, of the United States' RAND Corporation think tank, said in March.
But the haggling over who gets dominance over what and where would likely come at the expense of other countries.
"Today's major powers are seeking to negotiate a new global order primarily with each other," Monica Toft, professor of international relations at Tufts University in Massachusets wrote in the journal Foreign Affairs.
"In a scenario in which the United States, China, and Russia all agree that they have a vital interest in avoiding a nuclear war, acknowledging each other's spheres of influence can serve as a mechanism to deter escalation," Toft said.
If that were the case, "negotiations to end the war in Ukraine could resemble a new Yalta", she added.
Yet the thought of a Ukraine deemed by Trump to be in Russia's sphere is likely to send shivers down the spines of many in Europe -- not least in Ukraine itself.
"The success or failure of Ukraine to defend its sovereignty is going to have a lot of impact in terms of what the global system ends up looking like a generation from now," Mankoff said.
"So it's important for countries that have the ability and want to uphold an anti-imperial version of international order to assist Ukraine," he added -- pointing the finger at Europe.
"In Trump's world, Europeans need their own sphere of influence," said Rym Momtaz, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
"For former imperial powers, Europeans seem strangely on the backfoot as nineteenth century spheres of influence come back as the organising principle of global affairs."