What’s at Stake When Türkiye’s Leader Meets Putin in Bid to Reestablish Black Sea Grain Deal

19 July 2022, Iran, Tehran: Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the Iranian-Russian-Turkish summit. (Kremlin/dpa)
19 July 2022, Iran, Tehran: Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the Iranian-Russian-Turkish summit. (Kremlin/dpa)
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What’s at Stake When Türkiye’s Leader Meets Putin in Bid to Reestablish Black Sea Grain Deal

19 July 2022, Iran, Tehran: Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the Iranian-Russian-Turkish summit. (Kremlin/dpa)
19 July 2022, Iran, Tehran: Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the Iranian-Russian-Turkish summit. (Kremlin/dpa)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Vladimir Putin on Monday, hoping to persuade the Russian leader to rejoin the Black Sea grain deal that Moscow broke off from in July.

Here are some key things to know and what's at stake:

WHERE WILL THE TALKS BE HELD? The meeting in Sochi on Russia’s southern coast comes after weeks of speculation about when and where the two leaders might meet.

Erdogan previously said that Putin would travel to Türkiye in August.

WHY DID RUSSIA LEAVE THE GRAIN DEAL? The Kremlin refused to renew the grain agreement six weeks ago. The deal — brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye in July 2022 — had allowed nearly 33 million metric tons (36 million tons) of grain and other commodities to leave three Ukrainian ports safely despite Russia's war.

However, Russia pulled out after claiming that a parallel deal promising to remove obstacles to Russian exports of food and fertilizer hadn't been honored.

Moscow complained that restrictions on shipping and insurance hampered its agricultural trade, even though it has shipped record amounts of wheat since last year.

WHY IS TÜRKIYE A BROKER? Since Putin withdrew from the initiative, Erdogan has repeatedly pledged to renew arrangements that helped avoid a food crisis in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other goods that developing nations rely on.

The Turkish president has maintained close ties to Putin during the 18-month war in Ukraine. Türkiye hasn't joined Western sanctions against Russia following its invasion, emerging as a main trading partner and logistical hub for Russia’s overseas trade.

NATO member Türkiye, however, has also supported Ukraine, sending arms, meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and backing Kyiv’s bid to join NATO.

RUSSIA-TÜRKIYE TIES HAVEN'T ALWAYS BEEN ROSY Erdogan angered Moscow in July when he allowed five Ukrainian commanders to return home. The soldiers had been captured by Russia and handed over to Türkiye on condition they remain there for the duration of the war.

Putin and Erdogan — both leaders who have been in power for more than two decades — are said to have a close rapport, fostered in the wake of a failed coup against Erdogan in 2016 when Putin was the first major leader to offer his support.

Traditional rivals Türkiye and Russia grew closer over the following years as trade levels rose and they embarked on joint projects such as the Turkstream gas pipeline and Türkiye’s first nuclear power plant. Ankara’s relations with Moscow have frequently alarmed its Western allies. The 2019 acquisition of Russian-made air defense missiles led to Washington kicking Türkiye off the US-led F-35 stealth fighter program.

Russia-Türkiye relations in fields such as energy, defense, diplomacy, tourism and trade have flourished despite the countries being on opposing sides in conflicts in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Since Erdogan’s reelection in May, Putin has faced domestic challenges that may make him appear a less reliable partner, most notably the short-lived armed rebellion declared by late mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in June.

WHAT ARE RUSSIA'S DEMANDS? The Sochi summit follows talks between the Russian and Turkish foreign ministers on Thursday, during which Russia handed over a list of actions that the West would have to take in order for Ukraine’s Black Sea exports to resume.

Erdogan has indicated sympathy with Putin’s position. In July, he said Putin had “certain expectations from Western countries” over the Black Sea deal and that it was “crucial for these countries to take action in this regard.”

UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently sent Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov “concrete proposals” aimed at getting Russian exports to global markets and allowing the resumption of the Black Sea initiative. But Lavrov said Moscow wasn't satisfied with the letter.

Describing Türkiye’s “intense” efforts to revive the agreement, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said it was a “process that tries to better understand Russia’s position and requests, and to meet them.”

He added: “There are many issues ranging from financial transactions to insurance.”



What Role Did the ‘Mossad-Tehran Branch’ Play in Operation Rising Lion?

People gather near a damaged building, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People gather near a damaged building, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
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What Role Did the ‘Mossad-Tehran Branch’ Play in Operation Rising Lion?

People gather near a damaged building, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People gather near a damaged building, in the aftermath of Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 13, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Just hours after launching its military operation “Rising Lion” against Iran, Israel revealed an extensive and long-standing intelligence campaign conducted by its spy agency Mossad deep inside Iranian territory, especially in the capital, where it reportedly established a covert branch.

According to an Israeli security source on Friday, Mossad special units carried out a series of covert operations inside Iran in the lead-up to the strikes. These included deploying precision-guided weapons near surface-to-air missile sites, using advanced technology to disrupt Iranian air defenses, and establishing a drone launch base close to Tehran.

The source said Friday’s operation was a joint effort between the Israeli military, Mossad, and the country’s defense industry, built on years of meticulous planning and intelligence-gathering. Israeli media, including Yedioth Ahronoth, reported that Mossad had established the drone base long before the strike, with explosive-laden UAVs later launched toward Iranian missile sites.

The attack reflects Israel’s broader, long-term strategy toward Iran, built on the combined efforts of its military and intelligence services. While Iran has maintained that the strikes were conducted entirely from outside the country, seeking to avoid acknowledging serious internal security breaches, Israel insists that Mossad played a decisive role on the ground.

The agency is credited with assassinations of IRGC and Iranian military figures, data collection on nuclear scientists, and compiling a high-value target list.

An Israeli security source claimed Mossad established a “branch” inside Tehran, planting surveillance devices across dozens of locations and even executing sabotage operations near nuclear facilities and missile launch sites.

While some analysts view these claims as psychological warfare or propaganda, evidence from past operations suggests a degree of credibility. Over the years, Israel has conducted bold, complex missions inside Iran that appear too sophisticated to have originated solely from outside.

Mossad’s activity in Iran dates back years but intensified significantly in the last two. According to Israeli sources, the agency effectively set up a wide-reaching operational base inside Iran, complete with advanced equipment and transport assets.

Mossad has been linked to the assassinations of at least four Iranian nuclear scientists: Masoud Alimohammadi, Majid Shahriari, Darioush Rezaeinejad, and Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan - between 2010 and 2012 - most of them killed using magnetic bombs in central Tehran. In 2020, top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in an ambush attributed to a Mossad unit.

The most high-profile operation came in 2018, when Mossad agents reportedly stole Iran’s nuclear archive, including 50,000 documents and 163 CDs, from a Tehran warehouse in a seven-hour raid. According to former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, who oversaw the mission, the 20-member team (none of whom were Israeli nationals) operated inside Iran for two years before executing the mission undetected.

Though Iranian officials initially dismissed the scale of the operation, they later claimed to have arrested “all the terrorists” who helped Mossad, blaming opposition groups like the MEK. However, Israel insists it relied not on political dissidents, but on individuals disillusioned with the regime, mercenaries, and Western intelligence support.

A retired Mossad officer, known only as Brig. Gen. “A”, told the right-wing Israeli group The Guardians that Iran’s internal repression and isolation have left it vulnerable. He stressed the close cooperation between Mossad, Israeli military intelligence, and the defense industry in preparing for the confrontation with Iran.

Operation “Rising Lion,” launched this week, included direct strikes on neighborhoods housing top IRGC commanders in Tehran. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant described it as a “preemptive strike,” following warnings from US President Donald Trump about an imminent Israeli military operation targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.