Lebanon Struggles to Cope with New Syrian Migration Wave

 Children at a camp for Syrian refugees in Bar Elias, in the Lebanese Bekaa Valley on July 7, 2022 (AP)
Children at a camp for Syrian refugees in Bar Elias, in the Lebanese Bekaa Valley on July 7, 2022 (AP)
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Lebanon Struggles to Cope with New Syrian Migration Wave

 Children at a camp for Syrian refugees in Bar Elias, in the Lebanese Bekaa Valley on July 7, 2022 (AP)
Children at a camp for Syrian refugees in Bar Elias, in the Lebanese Bekaa Valley on July 7, 2022 (AP)

Asharq Al-Awsat is closely monitoring the influx of new Syrian refugees into Lebanese territory, specifically the Bekaa region in eastern Lebanon.

These refugees are fleeing dire economic and living conditions in Syria, marking a new wave of displacement following the security-driven causes that led to the initial wave several years ago.

These displaced individuals are coordinating with traffickers who transport them covertly through unauthorized routes into Lebanese territory. This issue has prompted a political and security alert within Lebanon, aiming to prevent the exacerbation of this phenomenon, which has intensified in recent weeks.

One Syrian, Fadi S., aged 24, shared with Asharq Al-Awsat upon his arrival in Baalbek, eastern Lebanon, that he had only a single dollar in his pocket, insufficient to purchase essential supplies from a local supermarket.

His journey from Syria’s Homs to the Lebanese Bekaa region had depleted all his resources, and the $100 sent by his uncle to pay the human trafficker to bring him into Lebanon was exhausted.

Fadi’s intention upon arriving in Lebanon is to seek employment.

The journey Fadi took to Baalbek was arduous, spanning 13 hours and involving passage through unauthorized crossings and rugged paths.

However, it was relatively easy to navigate these obstacles because, as he mentioned, “the smugglers are familiar with hidden points unknown to Syrian and Lebanese security personnel.”

Sometimes, these refugees walk for hours through fields and orchards to reach the heart of Lebanon.

Fadi entered through an unauthorized crossing north of Hermel in the far northeast of Lebanon, along with a group of 17 Syrians, most of whom were young individuals seeking employment.

Upon arrival in Lebanese territory, they dispersed—some sought refuge in Syrian displacement camps in Bekaa, where they had relatives, while others sought shelter with relatives in villages in Baalbek.

The sole motivation behind Fadi’s displacement is the dire economic situation.

“I fled the hellish economic conditions, the unbearable cost of living in Syria, and the significant devaluation of the Syrian pound,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“These factors threaten our access to gas and heating fuel as winter approaches.”

“Life has become exceedingly harsh in Syria due to the exchange rate soaring to 14,000 Syrian pounds for one US dollar, while the daily wages for agricultural and construction workers in Syria do not exceed three dollars (40,000 Syrian pounds),” Fadi further explained.

“Meanwhile, food prices have surged, with the price per kilogram of tomatoes, grapes, and potatoes reaching over 3,000 Syrian pounds.”

“A gallon of oil costs 110,000 Syrian pounds ($8), and a kilogram of sugar has risen to 13,000 Syrian pounds (around $1).”

According to Fadi, these conditions forced him to leave his job in Homs.

He couldn't afford the cost of escaping, so he turned to his uncle living abroad, who sent him $100.

Fadi used this money to pay a trafficking group comprised of Lebanese and Syrians, allowing him to finally have a chance at improving his economic situation and finding work in Lebanon.

Indeed, he found his opportunity in Lebanon, where he secured a job the day after his arrival.

On Wednesday, he mentioned that he had started working in construction labor and was earning a daily wage of $8.

Lebanese security sources confirm that the amount Fadi paid is consistent with what they have seen, but investigations into apprehended individuals fleeing across the border illegally reveal even larger sums.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat under conditions of anonymity, a security source in the Bekaa region revealed that the fees charged by smuggling gangs per person “range from $100 to $600, depending on the nature of the journey.”

The security source also noted that some who illicitly enter Lebanon “use Lebanese territory as a transit route to European countries, Turkey, Egypt, or Greece, via sea and airports.”

“Their affairs are managed by gangs that secure accommodation in Lebanon before facilitating their departure abroad,” added the source.

The economic situation remains the primary driver for the migration of Syrians to Lebanon.

Samia, 32 years old, arrived on Tuesday with her two-year-old son, Mohammed, at a camp near Baalbek through an illegal smuggling route.

She had previously returned to Syria to live with her family, believing that the economic situation in Syria was better than in Lebanon.

However, Samia has now returned to Lebanon, seeking refuge from the “deteriorating economic conditions in Syria.”

She returned once again to the neighboring country to live with her husband, who works as a truck driver there.

Today, Samia resides in the same tent she had abandoned for Syria two months ago, returning through the same smuggling route and with the same traffickers.

“When I left for Syria two months ago through smugglers to live there with my family, the situation was better than it is today. But now, life has become unbearable, and that’s what compelled me to return to Lebanon,” she told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Samia mentions that the cost of the journey, both to enter Syria from Lebanon and return, amounts to $200, as charged by the smugglers for both the outbound and return trips.

Lebanese authorities have taken measures to thwart illegal border crossings.

“As part of combating human trafficking and illegal infiltration across the land borders, units of the Lebanese Army, at various times during the past week, foiled an attempt to infiltrate approximately 1,100 Syrians at the Lebanese-Syrian border,” the Lebanese Army stated in a recent press release.

Smuggling routes span a vast area, starting from Suweiri in southern Bekaa and extending to the far northeast of Lebanon, covering the entire northern border region. Smuggling is considered easier in the north due to the dense vegetation cover that conceals infiltrators.

A security source in eastern Lebanon informed Asharq Al-Awsat that the Lebanese Army, with the assistance of the Border Regiment and intelligence patrols, has successfully controlled both legal and illegal border crossings.

They have also established parallel checkpoints along international highways in northern Bekaa to prevent new waves of refugees from entering, following a recent security lapse.

The source, who requested anonymity, pointed out that those fleeing to Lebanon come from all Syrian regions without exception.

The source added that individuals apprehended by the army are repatriated across the border.



How Israel Used Spies, Smuggled Drones and AI to Stun and Hobble Iran 

Flames rise from an oil storage facility after it appeared to have been hit by an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, early Sunday, June 15, 2025. (AP)
Flames rise from an oil storage facility after it appeared to have been hit by an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, early Sunday, June 15, 2025. (AP)
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How Israel Used Spies, Smuggled Drones and AI to Stun and Hobble Iran 

Flames rise from an oil storage facility after it appeared to have been hit by an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, early Sunday, June 15, 2025. (AP)
Flames rise from an oil storage facility after it appeared to have been hit by an Israeli strike in Tehran, Iran, early Sunday, June 15, 2025. (AP)

Israel stunned and hobbled Iran last week when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision.

Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate — already weakened by past Israeli strikes — was greatly diminished.

This Associated Press account is based on conversations with 10 current and former Israeli intelligence and military officials, some of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss clandestine operations.

It was not possible to independently verify some of their claims. But the former head of research at Israel's spy agency, the Mossad, confirmed the basic contours of the attack, saying she had inside knowledge of how it was planned and executed.

“This attack is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran's nuclear program,” said Sima Shine, the former Mossad research director who is now an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies.

Israel's element of surprise was enhanced by Iranian officials' apparent assumption that Israel wouldn't attack while talks over its rapidly advancing nuclear program were ongoing with the US.

A sixth round of talks had been planned for last Sunday in Oman, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu activated “Operation Rising Lion” on Friday after his country first notified President Donald Trump.

Netanyahu has for years said neutralizing Iran's nuclear program was vital for Israel's security, and Israel had previously taken steps to set back Iran's ability to enrich uranium to weapons grade. But Netanyahu said a more aggressive attack proved necessary, as Iran kept advancing its enrichment program despite US diplomatic efforts and warnings from UN watchdogs.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has repeatedly called for Israel's destruction. Iran's political leaders say their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though it was the only country without the bomb to enrich uranium close to weapons-grade levels.

Smuggling drones into Iran

The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack. This person spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the subject.

The attack built off knowledge Israel gained during a wave of airstrikes last October, which “highlighted the weakness of Iranian air defenses,” said Naysan Rafati, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

To further diminish Iranian air defenses and missile systems at the start of last week's attack, Mossad agents had smuggled precision weapons into Iran that were prepositioned to strike from close range, according to two current security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the missions. Those weapons included small, armed drones, which agents snuck into the country in vehicles, according to the former intelligence officer.

Mossad agents stationed weapons close to Iranian surface-to-air missile sites, Shine said. The agency works with a mix of people, both locals and Israelis, she said.

Using AI and human intelligence to select targets

To analyze information it gathered, Israel used the latest artificial-intelligence, or AI, technology, said an intelligence officer involved with selecting individuals and sites to target. He said AI was used to help Israelis quickly sift through troves of data they had obtained.

That effort began last October according to the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media; it was one month before Netanyahu said he had ordered the attack plans.

An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year uncovered that the Israeli military uses US-made AI models in war to sift through intelligence and intercept communications to learn the movements of its enemies. It's been used in the wars with Hamas in Gaza and with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The intelligence officer involved in identifying the possible targets said options were first put into various groups, such as leadership, military, civilian and infrastructure. Targets were chosen if they were determined to be a threat to Israel, such as being deeply associated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, the paramilitary force that controls Iran's ballistic missiles.

The officer was tasked with putting together a list of Iranian generals, including details on where they worked and spent their free time.

Among the high-level military officials killed since Friday's attack were Gen. Hossein Salami, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, and Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces.

In addition to AI, the Mossad relied on spies to identify top nuclear scientists and members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, according to one security official. At least eight members of the Guard, including the head of its missile program, were killed in a single Israeli strike on an underground bunker.

Targeting Iranian vehicles

Another facet of the attack was to strike Iranian vehicles used to transport and launch missiles.

Shine said the strategy was similar to a Ukrainian operation earlier this month in Russia. In that operation, nearly a third of Moscow's strategic bomber fleet was destroyed or damaged with cheaply made drones snuck into Russian territory, according to Ukrainian officials.

In an interview with Iranian state-run television, the country's police chief, Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, said “several vehicles carrying mini-drones and some tactical drones have been discovered.” He added: “a number of traitors are trying to engage the country's air defense by flying some mini-drones.”

How far back does this go?

The Mossad is believed to have carried out numerous covert attacks on the Iranian nuclear program over the years, including cyberattacks and the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. But it rarely acknowledges such operations.

In the 2000s, Iranian centrifuges used for enriching uranium were destroyed by the so-called Stuxnet computer virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation.

In 2018, Israel stole an archive of Iranian nuclear research that included tens of thousands of pages of records, said Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired general and former military intelligence researcher who now directs the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

In July 2024, Israel killed a senior leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, with a bomb in a bedroom of a government guesthouse in Tehran.

Israel's blistering attack last week on the heart of Iran's nuclear and military structure didn't come out of nowhere, said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank.

It was the result of “Israeli intelligence working extensively for years in Iran and establishing a very strong robust presence,” he said.