The Fall of an Enclave in Azerbaijan Stuns the Armenian Diaspora, Extinguishing a Dream

People hold a flag of Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as the Republic of Artsakh, as they take part in an anti-government rally in downtown Yerevan on September 25, 2023, following Azerbaijani military operations against Armenian separatist forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. (Photo by KAREN MINASYAN / AFP)
People hold a flag of Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as the Republic of Artsakh, as they take part in an anti-government rally in downtown Yerevan on September 25, 2023, following Azerbaijani military operations against Armenian separatist forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. (Photo by KAREN MINASYAN / AFP)
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The Fall of an Enclave in Azerbaijan Stuns the Armenian Diaspora, Extinguishing a Dream

People hold a flag of Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as the Republic of Artsakh, as they take part in an anti-government rally in downtown Yerevan on September 25, 2023, following Azerbaijani military operations against Armenian separatist forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. (Photo by KAREN MINASYAN / AFP)
People hold a flag of Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as the Republic of Artsakh, as they take part in an anti-government rally in downtown Yerevan on September 25, 2023, following Azerbaijani military operations against Armenian separatist forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. (Photo by KAREN MINASYAN / AFP)

The swift fall of the Armenian-majority enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani troops and exodus of much of its population has stunned the large Armenian diaspora around the world. Traumatized by genocide a century ago, they now fear the erasure of what they consider a central and beloved part of their historic homeland.
The separatist ethnic Armenian government in Nagorno-Karabakh on Thursday announced that it was dissolving and that the unrecognized republic will cease to exist by year’s end – a seeming death knell for its 30-year de-facto independence, The Associated Press said.
Azerbaijan, which routed the region’s Armenian forces in a lightning offensive last week, has pledged to respect the rights of the territory’s Armenian community. But by Thursday morning, 74,400 people – over 60% of Nagorno-Karabakh’s population — had fled to Armenia, and the influx continues, according to Armenian officials.
Many in Armenia and the diaspora fear a centuries-long community in the territory they call Artsakh will disappear in what they call a new wave of ethnic cleansing. They accuse European countries, Russia and the United States – and the government of Armenia itself – of failing to protect ethnic Armenians during months of blockade of the territory by Azerbaijan’s military and in the lightning blitz earlier this month that defeated separatist forces.
Armenians say the loss is a historic blow. Outside the modern country of Armenia itself, the mountainous land was one of the only surviving parts of a heartland that centuries ago stretched across what is now eastern Türkiye, into the Caucasus region and western Iran.
Many in the diaspora had pinned dreams on it gaining independence or being joined to Armenia.
Nagorno-Karabakh was “a page of hope in Armenian history,” Narod Seroujian, a Lebanese-Armenian university instructor in Beirut, said Thursday.
“It showed us that there is hope to gain back a land that is rightfully ours ... For the diaspora, Nagorno-Karabakh was already part of Armenia.”
Hundreds of Lebanese Armenians on Thursday protested outside the Azerbajani Embassy in Beirut. They waved flags of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh and burned pictures of the Azerbaijani and Turkish presidents. Riot police lobbed tear gas when they threw firecrackers at the embassy.
Ethnic Armenians have communities around Europe and the Middle East and in the United States. Lebanon is home to one of the largest, with an estimated 120,000 of Armenian origin, 4% of the population.
Most are descendants of those who fled the 1915 campaign by Ottoman Turks in which some 1.5 million Armenians died in massacres, deportations and forced marches. The atrocities, which emptied many ethnic Armenian areas in eastern Türkiye, are widely viewed by historians as genocide. Türkiye rejects the description of genocide, saying the toll has been inflated and that those killed were victims of civil war and unrest during World War I.
In Bourj Hammoud, the main Armenian district in the capital Beirut, memories are still raw, with anti-Türkiye graffiti common on the walls. The red-blue-and-orange Armenian flag flies from many buildings.
“This is the last migration for Armenians,” said Harout Bshidikian, 55, sitting in front of an Armenian flag in a Bourj Hamoud cafe. “There is no other place left for us to migrate from.”
Azerbaijan says it is reuniting its territory, pointing out that even Armenia’s prime minister recognized that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan. Though its population has been predominantly ethnic Armenian Christians, Turkish Muslim Azeris also have communities and cultural ties to the territory as well, particularly the city of Shusha, famed as a cradle of Azeri poetry.
Nagorno-Karabakh came under control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by the Armenian military in separatist fighting that ended in 1994. Azerbaijan took parts of the area in a 2020 war. Now after this month’s defeat, separatist authorities surrendered their weapons and are holding talks with Azerbaijan on reintegration of the territory into Azerbaijan.
Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, said Nagorno-Karabakh had become “a kind of new cause” for an Armenian diaspora whose forebearers had suffered the genocide.
“It was a kind of new Armenian state, new Armenian land being born, which they projected lots of hopes on. Very unrealistic hopes, I would say,” he said, adding that it encouraged Karabakh Armenians to hold out against Azerbaijan despite the lack of international recognition for their separatist government.
Armenians see the territory as a cradle of their culture, with monasteries dating back more than a millennium.
“Artsakh or Nagorno-Karabakh has been a land for Armenians for hundreds of years,” said Lebanese legislator Hagop Pakradounian, head of Lebanon’s largest Armenian group, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation. “The people of Artsakh are being subjected to a new genocide, the first genocide in the 21st Century.”
The fall of Nagorno-Karabakh is not just a reminder of the genocide, “it’s reliving it,” said Diran Guiliguian, an Armenian activist who is based in Madrid but holds Armenian, Lebanese and French citizenship.
He said his grandmother used to tell him stories of how she fled in 1915. The genocide “is actually not a thing of the past. It’s not a thing that is a century old. It’s actually still the case,” he said.
Seroujian, the instructor in Beirut, said her great-grandparents were genocide survivors, and that stories of the atrocities and dispersal were talked about at home, school and in the community as she grew up, as was the cause of Nagorno-Karabakh.
She visited the territory several times, most recently in 2017. “We’ve grown with these ideas, whether they were romantic or not, of the country. We’ve grown to love it even when we didn’t see it,” she said. “I never thought about it as something separate” from Armenia the country.
A diaspora group called Europeans for Artsakh plans a rally in Brussels next week in front of European Union buildings to denounce what they say are ethnic cleansing and human rights abuses by Azerbaijan and to call for EU sanctions on Azerbaijani officials. The rally is timed ahead of a summit of European leaders in Spain on Oct. 5, where the Armenian prime minister and Azerbaijani president are scheduled to hold talks mediated by the French president, German chancellor and European Council president.
In the United States, the Armenian community in the Los Angeles area – one of the world’s largest – has staged several protests trying to draw attention to the situation. On Sept. 19, they used a trailer truck to block a major freeway for several hours, causing major traffic jams.
Kim Kardashian, perhaps the most well known Armenian-American today, went on social media to urge President Joe Biden “to Stop Another Armenian Genocide.”
Several groups in the diaspora are collecting money for Karabakh Armenians fleeing their home. But Seroujian said many feel helpless.
“There are moments where personally, the family, or among friends we just feel hopeless,” she said. “And when we talk to each other we sort of lose our minds.



A Week Into the Fragile Israel-Iran Peace Agreement, Here's What We Still Don't Know

People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
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A Week Into the Fragile Israel-Iran Peace Agreement, Here's What We Still Don't Know

People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

It's been a week since the United States pressed Israel and Iran into a truce, ending a bloody, 12-day conflict that had set the Middle East and globe on edge.

The fragile peace, brokered by the US the day after it dropped 30,000-pound "bunker-busting" bombs on three of Iran's key nuclear sites, is holding. But much remains unsettled, The Associated Press reported.

How badly Iran’s nuclear program was set back remains murky. The prospects of renewed US-Iran peace talks are up in the air. And whether US President Donald Trump can leverage the moment to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's government and Hamas focused on a ceasefire and hostage deal that brings about an end to the 20-month war in Gaza remains an open question.

Here is a look at what we still don't know:

How far Iran's nuclear program has been set back Trump says three targets hit by American strikes were “obliterated.” His defense secretary said they were “destroyed.”

A preliminary report issued by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, meanwhile, said the strikes did significant damage to the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan sites, but did not totally destroy the facilities.

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that the three Iranian sites with “capabilities in terms of treatment, conversion and enrichment of uranium have been destroyed to an important degree.” But, he added, “some is still standing” and that because capabilities remain, “if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again.” He said assessing the full damage comes down to Iran allowing inspectors access.

What future US-Iran relations might look like

After the ceasefire deal came together, Trump spoke of potentially easing decades of biting sanctions on Tehran and predicted that Iran could become a “great trading nation” if it pulled back once-and-for-all from its nuclear program.

The talk of harmony didn't last long.

Ali Khamenei, in his first public appearance after the ceasefire was announced, claimed Tehran had delivered a “slap to America’s face." Trump responded by suggesting the supreme leader own up to the fact Iran “got beat to hell. The president also said he was backing off reviewing any immediate sanction relief, because of Khamenei's heated comments.

White House officials say the US and Iran are already in early discussions about resuming negotiations that had ended after Israel began launching strikes. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says there's no agreement in place to restart talks.

It's unclear if Iran's leadership is ready to come to the table so soon after the fighting has ended — especially if Trump holds to the position that Iran must give up nuclear enrichment for even civilian use. And Trump has offered conflicting statements about his commitment to talks. “We may sign an agreement,” he said Wednesday at a NATO summit press conference. He added, “I don’t think it’s that necessary.”

What role Iran's supreme leader will play

Khamenei's age and recent diminished appearance have raised questions about the scope of his involvement in US-Iran relations and Iran's response to both American and Israeli strikes. But despite having spent the last few weeks in a bunker as threats to his life escalated, there is little indication that Khamenei does not still reign supreme over the country's massive military and governmental operations.

Khamenei has ruled three times longer than his predecessor, the late Ruhollah Khomeini, and has shaped life for the country's more than 90 million people perhaps even more dramatically.

He entrenched the system of rule by the “mullahs,” or Shiite Muslim clerics. That secured his place in the eyes of hard-liners as the unquestionable authority, below only that of God. At the same time, Khamenei built the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the dominant force in Iran’s military and internal politics.

How Iran might strike back Iran's retaliatory missile attacks on a US base in Qatar following the American bombardment were sloughed off by the White House as a half-hearted, face-saving measure. The US was forewarned and the salvos were easily fended off.

Yet Iran remains a persistent threat, particularly via cyberwarfare. Hackers backing Tehran have already targeted US banks, defense contractors and oil industry companies — but so far have not caused widespread disruptions to critical infrastructure or the economy.

The US Department of Homeland Security last week issued a public bulletin warning of increased Iranian cyber threats. And the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, is urging organizations that operate critical infrastructure like water systems, pipelines or power plants to stay vigilant.

Whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold It remains a fragile peace.

Immediately following the US strikes, Trump got on the phone with Netanyahu and told the Israeli leader not to expect further US offensive military action, according to a senior White House official who was not authorized to comment publicly about the sensitive diplomatic talks.

But even as he agreed to deal, Netanyahu made clear that Israel will strike again “if anyone in Iran tries to revive this project.”

The ceasefire deal came without any agreement from Tehran on dismantling its nuclear program. Khamenei claims the attacks “did nothing significant” to Iran's nuclear facilities.

Trump expressed confidence that Iran, at the moment, has no interest in getting its nuclear program back up. “The last thing they’re thinking about right now is enriched uranium,” Trump said.

Still, Trump says he expects Iran to open itself to international inspection to verify that it doesn’t restart its nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, or some other organization "that we respect, including ourselves.”

Whether Trump can now press Netanyahu on Gaza

The president took a big gamble with his decision to order strikes on Iran's nuclear fortress.

As a candidate, he promised to quickly end Russia's brutal war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, but has failed to find a resolution to either. He also vowed to keep the US military out of foreign conflicts.

But after helping Israel with US strikes on Iran, Trump — in conversations with Netanyahu and other world leaders in recent days — has made clear he wants a deal completed soon, according to two people familiar with the private discussions and were not authorized to comment publicly.

On Friday, Trump told reporters, “We think within the next week we’re going to get a ceasefire.”

Trump didn't offer any further explanation for his optimism. But Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is expected to be in Washington this week for talks on a Gaza ceasefire, Iran and other matters, according to an official familiar with the matter. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.