Israel Considered ‘Pre-emptive Strike’ against Egypt, Syria Hours before October Attack

The Israeli military censor’s finalization of the news received by the Maariv newspaper (Maariv archive)
The Israeli military censor’s finalization of the news received by the Maariv newspaper (Maariv archive)
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Israel Considered ‘Pre-emptive Strike’ against Egypt, Syria Hours before October Attack

The Israeli military censor’s finalization of the news received by the Maariv newspaper (Maariv archive)
The Israeli military censor’s finalization of the news received by the Maariv newspaper (Maariv archive)

Fifty years ago, specifically on Oct. 3, 1973, then Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army, David Elazar, met with the editors of Hebrew newspapers and told them: “No war will break out soon... You can sleep peacefully.”

The journalists felt reassured, except for one: The editor-in-chief of the Maariv newspaper, Aryeh Disenchik. His military correspondent, Jacob Ayers, was confident that war was coming. He had a brother serving in the army and was monitoring Egyptian movements on the western end of the Suez Canal. He knew that those were not mere exercises, but preparations for an imminent war.

Disenchik decided to cover the news in a spirit that contradicted the reassurances conveyed by the Chief of Staff.

Ayers prepared a story entitled, “Suspicious Movements of the Egyptian Army,” in which he spoke about build-ups of Egyptian tanks and missile batteries and excessive movement of aircraft in the air, and concluded with a sentence that read: “The Israeli army is alert to these movements and stands in front of them with high preparedness.”

He sent the article to the military censor, who crossed out almost all of the lines except for the last sentence.

Twenty-two years after that incident, in 1995, Ayers served as editor-in-chief of the newspaper. He printed a copy of the paper on which the news was written, along with what had been crossed out by the military censorship, and hung it on the wall behind his office. He wanted to recall his journalistic achievement, which had been suppressed by the censorship, but also insisted, on every occasion, to apologize to the public, because he adhered to the law by submitting the news to censorship.

This incident was one of the forgotten stories in the Israeli political arena, but is making a strong comeback, after researchers Ephraim Lapid (worked as army spokesman from 1984-1989) and Ron Gabayan (served in the army spokesman’s department from 2016-2022) decided to teach it in colleges.

The two researchers prepared a study on the role of the Israeli Army Spokesperson’s Department during that war, within the framework of the official Israeli decision to release a large amount of secret documents about the October War or “Yom Kippur.”

The Israeli government also took a decision three years ago to release most of the documents related to the October War, when it marked its 50th anniversary.

At the beginning of September 2022, the Israeli State Archive published the contents of 1,400 document files, and about 1,000 Photographs, 850 audio recordings and video clips, and more than 250 brief notes.

Israel also revealed the diary of the office of then Prime Minister Golda Meir, which covered the pre and post-war period, until the Separation of Forces Agreement in 1974. The diary revolved around the political and military aspects and international and regional diplomatic communications conducted by the Prime Minister’s office at the time, as documented by Eli Mizrahi, who served as director of the office. The journal contained 3,500 files with hundreds of thousands of pages.

The Israeli Mossad also published a book, for the first time in its history, about the circumstances of the 1973 war, under the title, “Some Day When We’ll Be Allowed to Tell.”

The accounts reflected the contradictory positions expressed by the various bodies that played a role in the October War, regarding what is known in Israel as “the corruption of great negligence.”

Israeli information about the Egyptian and Syrian mobilizations was dealt with “arrogance” in Tel Aviv. The head of military intelligence, Eli Zaira, stated during a consultation session with the Prime Minister - 28 hours before the war - that he had a complete copy of the plan prepared by the Syrian army against Israel, and a summary of the attack plan prepared by the Egyptian army.

According to Israeli documents, Zaira was confident that Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and his Syrian counterpart, Hafez al-Assad, did not intend to fight Israel, and that all military movements undertaken by their armies constituted a show-muscle in front of Israel.

The Army Chief of Staff, Elazar, approved this opinion, as did Defense Minister Moshe Dayan. Even when the Mossad issued a war warning at six o’clock on Oct. 6, Dayan objected to the mobilization of reserve forces, arguing such matter will spark an uproar against Israel and will greatly cost the economy.

Hours after Zaira downplayed the Egyptian-Syrian movements, the documents reveal that the Israeli political and military leaders were discussing, in another meeting on the morning of Oct. 6, specifically at eight o’clock, that is, six hours before the outbreak of the war, the possibility of launching a proactive strike against Egypt and Syria.

But Prime Minister Meir said: “My heart supports a war like this, but my mind sees it as harm to Israel before the international community.”

She added: “If it turns out that the Egyptians and Syrians do not actually intend to go to war, this will be an adventure by Israel that will lead to deaths and injuries, for nothing.” Defense Minister Moshe Dayan agreed.

Another official account, this time sourced from the book issued by the Mossad, states that Mossad chief Zvi Zamir informed Prime Minister Golda Meir, two years before the war, that is, in the fall of 1971, of Sadat’s intentions to fight Israel, and even told her about basic aspects of the Egyptian president’s strategy.

Zamir relied in his information on “the chief Mossad spy, Ashraf Marwan,” who was known as “The Angel.” The book indicates that Meir was so impressed by the depth of the information that she told him: “One day, when it can be revealed that you conveyed this information to me, you and your team will receive a medal.”

The Mossad book also indicates that Zamir “was able to obtain minutes of Sadat’s meetings with Soviet officials in Moscow in 1971, in which he told them that he was determined to restore all of Sinai, and not just part of it, either through diplomatic negotiations or through war with Israel.”



Where Things Stand on Iran after a Tense Weekend

An Iranian woman holds Iran's national flag on a street in Tehran on November 1, 2026. (AFP)
An Iranian woman holds Iran's national flag on a street in Tehran on November 1, 2026. (AFP)
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Where Things Stand on Iran after a Tense Weekend

An Iranian woman holds Iran's national flag on a street in Tehran on November 1, 2026. (AFP)
An Iranian woman holds Iran's national flag on a street in Tehran on November 1, 2026. (AFP)

The Middle East is braced for a possible return to all-out war. There are concerns that the United States, along with Israel, could strike Iran shortly after Tuesday’s midterm elections in the US.

Two Iranian officials said their delegation had left Qatar after days of discussions but that messages with the US continued to be exchanged through the mediator. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks, The Associated Press reported.

The diplomatic efforts seek to avert new attacks. Tehran has expanded its threats but said it is waiting for the latest US response to a proposal that would fully open the Strait of Hormuz to shipping within two days if Washington meets several conditions.

Here’s where things stand Monday.

Trump had a ‘very good’ call with Netanyahu

US President Donald Trump on Sunday evening told reporters he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a “very good” call on Saturday. He said they discussed Iran but gave no details.

Even before Netanyahu and his bloc of allies lost their majority in parliament in last week’s election, there were growing fears that Netanyahu was pushing for new strikes against Iran in an effort to stay in power in an emergency government during renewed war. Since last Tuesday’s election, the prime minister has publicly commented only on the vote.

There was no word from Netanyahu and his office on the latest call with Trump, who has continued to alternate between public comments about pursuing talks with Iran and threats to strike it hard.

Iran greatly expands threats while sticking with diplomacy

The Iranian Republic has stepped up its public messaging during the uncertainty, saying it is ready for both diplomacy and renewed fighting.

The new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, met with Iran’s military chiefs and said the response to “any kind and level of threat” from the US or Israel should be immediate and without “geographic limits,” and urged an expansion of the list of potential targets.

Khamenei still has not been seen publicly since the opening strikes by Israel and the US on Feb. 28 killed his father, the previous supreme leader.

Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, warned on X that any attack would bring “devastating blows on the aggressor using new weapons.”

In an interview with state television, Rezaei said “the tone has completely changed” from the US and called it a “very good sign.” He gave no details about the letter he received from US Vice President JD Vance, which Iran acknowledged last week, and said he had not responded.

Rezaei also said there had been no decision to change Iran’s nuclear doctrine, but he noted that some Iranians had questioned whether that should change if Iran were attacked again. Tehran has insisted its nuclear program is peaceful.

Washington seeks to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and wants to address the issue in any new talks. Iran wants to discuss the nuclear issue later.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, on a one-day visit to neighboring Turkmenistan on Monday, has said the final outcome depends on answers provided by the United States to the “Iranian questions.”


Fear of Renewed War Reshapes Housing Choices in Beirut’s Southern Suburbs

Displaced people fleeing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon sit in traffic at a highway that links to Beirut, in the southern port city of Sidon. (AP)
Displaced people fleeing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon sit in traffic at a highway that links to Beirut, in the southern port city of Sidon. (AP)
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Fear of Renewed War Reshapes Housing Choices in Beirut’s Southern Suburbs

Displaced people fleeing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon sit in traffic at a highway that links to Beirut, in the southern port city of Sidon. (AP)
Displaced people fleeing Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon sit in traffic at a highway that links to Beirut, in the southern port city of Sidon. (AP)

Fear of another war is prompting residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs to relocate or rent homes elsewhere. Housing decisions are no longer driven solely by the possibility of destruction or evacuation warnings. The prospect of renewed fighting is increasingly influencing where people choose to live, how they plan their marriages and even where they intend to spend their retirement.

Testimonies gathered by Asharq Al-Awsat reveal how families are reorganizing their lives in search of safety. Some have left the southern suburb, known as Dahiyeh, altogether, while others remain in their homes but maintain alternative accommodation in case they need to flee.

From homeowners paying additional rent to newlyweds choosing larger apartments to shelter relatives, security concerns are increasingly outweighing financial and social considerations.

Marital home for two families

For newlywed Nadia Houri, choosing a marital home was anything but a conventional decision.

Having lived in Beirut’s southern suburbs before her marriage, she decided to move to Bchamoun, making the possibility of another war a central consideration.

“When I decided to get married, I wasn’t thinking only about the home where my husband and I would live, but also about somewhere my family and my husband’s family could seek shelter if another war broke out,” Houri told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli air strike that targeted the Haret Hreik neighborhood in Beirut's southern suburbs. (AFP)

“That’s why I chose Bchamoun. I made sure the building was safe and the apartment spacious enough to accommodate both families.”

She said the additional expense was preferable to being unable to help relatives forced to flee their homes.

“I would rather bear the extra cost than see my family or my husband’s family displaced with nowhere to go. I wanted to be prepared for any emergency.”

Trauma of bombardment drives residents away

Lana Shouaib, from the Mreijeh neighborhood in the southern suburbs, rented a small studio in Beirut’s Ashrafieh after becoming increasingly uneasy about returning home. Her parents, meanwhile, moved to their village in the eastern Bekaa Valley.

“The situation is worrying, and security fears aren’t the only reason we’re staying away from the southern suburbs,” Shouaib told Asharq Al-Awsat. “The area is still suffering from all the destruction and water problems. All these factors made me look for somewhere else.”

Her greatest concern, however, remains the possibility of renewed airstrikes, particularly after experiencing a nighttime attack. With no guarantees that war will not resume, she finds the prospect of returning increasingly difficult. Shouaib is now considering leaving the neighborhood permanently.

“When this situation ends and things return to normal, we’ll sell the house and look somewhere else,” she said, acknowledging how difficult it is to abandon a home into which someone has invested a lifetime of hard work.

Retirement at an additional cost

Khaireddine, who asked that his full name not be published, did not wait for his home in the Sainte-Therese neighborhood of Beirut’s southern suburbs to suffer damage before deciding to leave.

Although the property remained intact, he and his wife moved to Khaldeh in Mount Lebanon, where they rented a house for $600 a month, hoping to spend their retirement away from fear and the prospect of repeated displacement.

“My house wasn’t damaged, and we could have stayed there. But we’re tired of being afraid and of the possibility of having to flee again,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. “We’ve reached an age when we want to rest and live peacefully, away from bombardment and anxiety about another war.”

Families displaced by Israeli strikes from southern Lebanon seek refuge at a school transformed into a shelter in Sidon. (AFP)

Their decision was also influenced by a desire to remain close to their children, who live in Khaldeh and the surrounding area.

Khaireddine acknowledged that paying $600 in monthly rent despite owning a habitable property placed an additional financial burden on the couple during retirement. But for him, the trade-off was worthwhile.

“Peace of mind has become more important to us,”he explained.

A summer chalet becomes an emergency refuge

Unlike those who have left, Abu Ali, a man in his 80s, still lives in his home in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

He has nevertheless taken a precautionary step, renting a chalet in Faraya on an annual lease in case another war erupts.

“I still live in the southern suburbs, and I don’t want to leave my home. But I’ve rented a chalet in Faraya for the whole year so I have somewhere to go if war resumes,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“I usually use it in the summer, but I decided to keep it in case of an emergency.”

Abu Ali explained that his advanced age had made him more determined to secure accommodation where he could relocate immediately if the security situation deteriorated, rather than search for shelter in the middle of a crisis.


Years on From Fall of ISIS, French Extremists Face Justice in Iraq

An ISIS flag hangs amid electric wires over a street in Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp, near the port-city of Sidon, southern Lebanon January 19, 2016. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho
An ISIS flag hangs amid electric wires over a street in Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp, near the port-city of Sidon, southern Lebanon January 19, 2016. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho
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Years on From Fall of ISIS, French Extremists Face Justice in Iraq

An ISIS flag hangs amid electric wires over a street in Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp, near the port-city of Sidon, southern Lebanon January 19, 2016. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho
An ISIS flag hangs amid electric wires over a street in Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp, near the port-city of Sidon, southern Lebanon January 19, 2016. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho

A decade ago, the ISIS group broadcast its crimes as it recruited radicals from around the world and imposed a brutal system of oppression across swathes of Syria and Iraq.

Years on from the group's military defeat, accused members are again in the spotlight -- this time on trial in Iraq, including French nationals, for atrocities committed against the people trapped in the so-called caliphate.

Trials began in September for 47 French citizens who were transferred from Syria last year, charged with belonging to the group that controlled large parts of both countries between 2014 and 2017.

In its first verdicts handed down last week, Baghdad's Karkh Criminal Court sentenced nine men to jail terms of up to 20 years.

A 24-year-old defendant, taken to Syria by his mother more than 10 years ago, was given 15 years. AFP is withholding his identity for legal reasons.

When the sentence was announced, the man said in Arabic: "I went to Syria, but it was my mother who chose for me. What is my fault?"

- 'Deceived' -

Thousands of people travelled from Europe to join ISIS during the war in Syria, where it declared a caliphate in 2014.

France, while repatriating hundreds of family members of extremists, has refused to bring back most of the men accused of involvement, leaving them to face justice abroad.

Many French recruits were from disadvantaged suburbs of major cities and faced limited opportunities.

The group jailed or killed anyone who dared speak out against its atrocities.

Fear was the group's instrument of domination over areas where women were hidden from view and where executions were carried out by bearded militants in public squares, for all to see.

Now, the accused are now being brought to court with shaved faces, wearing orange jumpsuits.

About 1,500 French people are believed to have joined ISIS.

Among them was Kamel Ben Mbarek, 42, who said he had worked as a driver for the group's police in Raqqa, in northern Syria.

"I regret it... because I wasn't young when the organization deceived me," he told the court.

Fewer than half of the French defendants have appeared so far.

"I regret everything I did. I've lost everything," said Adel Bouaoun, 28, accused of taking part in ISIS operations in Syria's Aleppo and Palmyra.

He recounted harsh conditions in Kurdish-run prisons in Syria, saying detainees had died, and described "physical and psychological torture".

ISIS was defeated in Iraq in 2017 and then in Syria in 2019 by a US-led coalition.

Thousands of extremists, along with their families, were left in Syrian prisons and camps under Kurdish command.

Earlier this year, the new Syrian authorities that came to power after the fall of Bashar al-Assad took over the prisons holding the extremists.

The US army then transferred more than 5,700 detainees of about 60 nationalities to Iraq, including at least five French nationals.

Rights groups have criticized the judicial process, calling it rushed and saying that confessions were extracted under duress.

"This entire procedure is a form of pressure. You have recorded statements that are not mine," Lakhdar Sebouai, 34, said in court.

Also among those awaiting trial is Adrien Guihal, who claimed responsibility on behalf of ISIS for the July 2016 attack in Nice, when a truck rammed Bastille Day crowds, killing 86 people.

- 'Law of the jungle' -

At one hearing, three defendants were visibly moved when they saw their siblings, who had come from France, for the first time in years.

The judge allowed them to speak together for a few minutes.

In October, French lawyers Matthieu Bagard and Marie Dose, who are defending many of the 47 French nationals, said the Iraqi judiciary had barred them from entering the country to attend the hearings, after they described the detainees' treatment as "inhumane".

The two lawyers are calling for the defendants' repatriation to France so they can be tried there.

Two Iraqi lawyers appointed in their absence refused to speak to AFP.

"Even if his sentence is different, he was tortured like an adult and tried like an adult," Bagard told AFP, referring to the 24-year-old taken to Syria as a child.

Observers, representatives of the French embassy and journalists are attending the trials.

Rights groups fear death sentences will be handed out.

Before the court, Thomas Barnouin, 45, whose verdict is expected November 18, recalled travelling to Syria at the start of the conflict, convinced that he had a religious duty.

But "the organization applied the law of the jungle, not the law of God", he said.

"We did not know that it also wanted to carry out terrorist attacks in our own country, in France," he added.

"I reject all its crimes."