Ashraf Marwan... The Man of a Single Story

Ashraf Marwan... The Man of a Single Story
TT

Ashraf Marwan... The Man of a Single Story

Ashraf Marwan... The Man of a Single Story

When the Israeli intelligence service (Mossad) published last month, a book that partly deals with the October 1973 War, it included two documents related to the meeting of Ashraf Marwan, the son-in-law of the late Egyptian President, Gamal Abdel Nasser, and the information secretary of his predecessor, President Anwar Sadat, with the head of the Mossad.

“The Angel,” “Babylon” and most frequently “the In-Law,” are code names that were given for “the spy”, who leaked to the Israelis the date of the Egyptian attack.

Marwan’s name gradually emerged over the years through memoirs by Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Golda Meir (1969-1974), Chief of Military Intelligence Eli Zaira (1972-1974), and Minister of Defense Moshe Dayan (1967- 1974).

However, the Mossad book presented for the first time a document that states that the Israeli intelligence body refuses to consider Marwan a “double agent,” and rejects Egypt’s description of him as a “national hero, who succeeded in conveying the most important information about the Israeli enemy.”

For the Mossad, Marwan was loyal to Israel.

In the face of the Israeli narratives, Egypt maintained an official silence. However, a well-informed Egyptian source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Asharq Al-Awsat that ongoing Israeli discussions about the spy “reflect competition between the security services in Israel,” stressing that everyone in Tel Avivi is “trying to justify themselves by attempting to appear as heroes.”

Dr. Tariq Fahmy, professor of political science and specialist in Israeli affairs, said that the “recycling of the Israeli narrative,” whether regarding the October War or Marwan, represents “an embodiment of the military and intelligence failure in Israel.”

Major General Nasr Salem, former head of the Egyptian Army’s reconnaissance service and professor of strategic sciences at the Military Academy for Postgraduate Studies, said that Marwan is “an Egyptian hero who participated in implementing the strategic deception plan through which Egypt preempted the war.”

He also considered that he “participated in removing the head of the Israeli Mossad from the operations management team in Tel Aviv, hours before the outbreak of the war.”

The British Court of Public Inquiry ruled in July 2010 that Marwan died of an “unknown cause,” and that evidence provided by the police and witness testimonies “do not support any hypothesis regarding his death.”

The investigations did not accuse any party of being behind Marwan’s death on Wednesday, June 27, 2007, when he fell to his death from the balcony of his house in an upscale neighborhood in London, at the age of 63.

His wife, Mona Gamal Abdel Nasser, accused the Israeli Mossad of assassinating him.

The scene of Marwan’s funeral increased the mystery surrounding him, as it was arranged by official agencies, in the presence of senior statesmen, led by Gamal Mubarak, the son of the Egyptian president at the time.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
TT

What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.