Israelis, Lebanese Pack Bags for Indefinite Exile amid Fears of Border War

Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)
Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)
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Israelis, Lebanese Pack Bags for Indefinite Exile amid Fears of Border War

Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)
Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)

Israeli and Lebanese residents on both sides of escalating border clashes say they have never felt such tension.

Fearing their hometowns could become the main front in a war between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, they have packed their bags and begun to move out.

"This time it's a whole different kind of anxiety - terrible fear," said Smadar Azoulai, a displaced resident of the Israeli border town of Kiryat Shmona.

"It's not the same as before. We handled that. There were bombs, there were rockets and we took cover in bomb shelters," she said, referring to past flare-ups between Israel and Hezbollah.

Nine miles north of Kiryat Shmona, Lebanese trader Mohammed Mustafa hadn't yet left his hometown of Marjeyoun, but had his suitcase ready.

"Sometimes you wake up and think a big war is going to happen, involving many countries. Other times you think, it's calm and there won't be war. No one really knows what's going to happen," he said.

The border area could become a second front in a wider Middle Eastern war should Israel's expected invasion of Gaza in retaliation for a surprise attack by Hamas militants prompt a strong response from its regional foes.

The attack on Oct. 7 killed more than 1,300 Israelis, the deadliest single day in Israel's 75-year history.

Israel has responded with its fiercest ever bombardment of the blockaded Gaza Strip, killing more than 2,700 Palestinians, and plans a large ground offensive.

‘Tomorrow it could be warplanes’

Israel's narrow northern border with Lebanon, a hilly region by the sea, feels far from the flat, scrubby Gaza Strip, the Palestinian enclave 200 km (130 miles) away on Israel's southwestern edge.

But Iran, which backs Hamas and Hezbollah, said on Tuesday that "preemptive action" could be expected in the coming hours against Israeli assaults on Gaza. Israel has threatened to destroy Lebanon should Hezbollah get involved.

The fear of a major conflagration has scattered communities at the frontier. Israel ordered the evacuation this week of 28 villages near Lebanon, forcing many families to take up residence at tourist resorts further south.

Lebanese residents have meanwhile fled north in the direction of towns and cities they hope won't be targeted by Israeli firepower.

"Today it's just a few shells, tomorrow it could be warplanes, roads being blocked, fuel shortages, hospitals could close. It's normal to see an exodus. The worst thing is that we don't know how long this will last," said Hussein, a Lebanese border resident who gave only his first name.

Already, many Lebanese from the border have moved in with families in Beirut while making contingency plans to head further north or into mountain areas that remained relatively safe during a month-long war in 2006 that killed 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 157 Israelis, mostly soldiers.

Wide areas of southern Lebanon were destroyed in that war between Hezbollah and Israel, but that conflict began suddenly and without forewarning after the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah. That contrasts with the gradual escalation underway since Oct. 7.

At the Sea of Galilee, hundreds of Israelis from northern kibbutzes said they were living out of suitcases indefinitely.

"The whole kibbutz is here," hospital worker and Kibbutz Bar-Am resident Dani Ayelet Parasol said.

"The mood is one of fear, of uncertainty - when will it end, what will be our place, and what will happen to those whose lives were destroyed?" she said.

Israel's military said it killed four people who had tried to cross the fence bordering Lebanon and plant an explosive device on Tuesday, and heavy shelling and gunfire have continued throughout the day.

The flare up has been the deadliest since the 2006 war, with about a dozen Lebanese and Palestinian fighters killed, as well as three civilians, including Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah.

At least three Israeli soldiers have been killed.

Hezbollah has targeted Israeli military posts, tanks and knocked out surveillance equipment, according to videos shared by the group, while Israel has shelled border towns.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.