Israelis, Lebanese Pack Bags for Indefinite Exile amid Fears of Border War

Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)
Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)
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Israelis, Lebanese Pack Bags for Indefinite Exile amid Fears of Border War

Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)
Shells from Israeli artillery explode over Dhayra village, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, Lebanon, 16 October 2023. (EPA)

Israeli and Lebanese residents on both sides of escalating border clashes say they have never felt such tension.

Fearing their hometowns could become the main front in a war between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, they have packed their bags and begun to move out.

"This time it's a whole different kind of anxiety - terrible fear," said Smadar Azoulai, a displaced resident of the Israeli border town of Kiryat Shmona.

"It's not the same as before. We handled that. There were bombs, there were rockets and we took cover in bomb shelters," she said, referring to past flare-ups between Israel and Hezbollah.

Nine miles north of Kiryat Shmona, Lebanese trader Mohammed Mustafa hadn't yet left his hometown of Marjeyoun, but had his suitcase ready.

"Sometimes you wake up and think a big war is going to happen, involving many countries. Other times you think, it's calm and there won't be war. No one really knows what's going to happen," he said.

The border area could become a second front in a wider Middle Eastern war should Israel's expected invasion of Gaza in retaliation for a surprise attack by Hamas militants prompt a strong response from its regional foes.

The attack on Oct. 7 killed more than 1,300 Israelis, the deadliest single day in Israel's 75-year history.

Israel has responded with its fiercest ever bombardment of the blockaded Gaza Strip, killing more than 2,700 Palestinians, and plans a large ground offensive.

‘Tomorrow it could be warplanes’

Israel's narrow northern border with Lebanon, a hilly region by the sea, feels far from the flat, scrubby Gaza Strip, the Palestinian enclave 200 km (130 miles) away on Israel's southwestern edge.

But Iran, which backs Hamas and Hezbollah, said on Tuesday that "preemptive action" could be expected in the coming hours against Israeli assaults on Gaza. Israel has threatened to destroy Lebanon should Hezbollah get involved.

The fear of a major conflagration has scattered communities at the frontier. Israel ordered the evacuation this week of 28 villages near Lebanon, forcing many families to take up residence at tourist resorts further south.

Lebanese residents have meanwhile fled north in the direction of towns and cities they hope won't be targeted by Israeli firepower.

"Today it's just a few shells, tomorrow it could be warplanes, roads being blocked, fuel shortages, hospitals could close. It's normal to see an exodus. The worst thing is that we don't know how long this will last," said Hussein, a Lebanese border resident who gave only his first name.

Already, many Lebanese from the border have moved in with families in Beirut while making contingency plans to head further north or into mountain areas that remained relatively safe during a month-long war in 2006 that killed 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 157 Israelis, mostly soldiers.

Wide areas of southern Lebanon were destroyed in that war between Hezbollah and Israel, but that conflict began suddenly and without forewarning after the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah. That contrasts with the gradual escalation underway since Oct. 7.

At the Sea of Galilee, hundreds of Israelis from northern kibbutzes said they were living out of suitcases indefinitely.

"The whole kibbutz is here," hospital worker and Kibbutz Bar-Am resident Dani Ayelet Parasol said.

"The mood is one of fear, of uncertainty - when will it end, what will be our place, and what will happen to those whose lives were destroyed?" she said.

Israel's military said it killed four people who had tried to cross the fence bordering Lebanon and plant an explosive device on Tuesday, and heavy shelling and gunfire have continued throughout the day.

The flare up has been the deadliest since the 2006 war, with about a dozen Lebanese and Palestinian fighters killed, as well as three civilians, including Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah.

At least three Israeli soldiers have been killed.

Hezbollah has targeted Israeli military posts, tanks and knocked out surveillance equipment, according to videos shared by the group, while Israel has shelled border towns.



Report: Israel Faces Possible Shortage of Interceptor Missiles

An Arrow II missile interceptor is displayed in front of journalists at an Israeli air defense command in the Palmahim military base south of Tel Aviv May 12, 2011. (Reuters)
An Arrow II missile interceptor is displayed in front of journalists at an Israeli air defense command in the Palmahim military base south of Tel Aviv May 12, 2011. (Reuters)
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Report: Israel Faces Possible Shortage of Interceptor Missiles

An Arrow II missile interceptor is displayed in front of journalists at an Israeli air defense command in the Palmahim military base south of Tel Aviv May 12, 2011. (Reuters)
An Arrow II missile interceptor is displayed in front of journalists at an Israeli air defense command in the Palmahim military base south of Tel Aviv May 12, 2011. (Reuters)

Israel is encountering a potential shortage of rocket and missile interceptors in its air defenses, reports revealed on Tuesday a day after the country’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant admitted Israel needs US support in air armament.

The Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said that during the security review presented to Israeli ministers Monday, Gallant was asked about armaments.

He replied that there was a large gap when he entered the Defense Ministry, which he instructed to be filled before the start of the war.

Gallant said, “We are still dependent in air armaments and American planes,” but he clarified that “we are working with all our might to promote blue-white production and the development of independence” on the issue of armaments.

Gallant’s comments were confirmed by the London-based Financial Times, which on Tuesday said that Israel faces a severe shortage of interceptor missiles, detailing how the US is rushing to help close the gaps.

According to the report, the Pentagon on Sunday announced the deployment of the THAAD system that will arrive in Israel, in preparation for the expected attack in Iran, which could lead to further regional escalation.

“Israel’s munitions issue is serious,” Dana Stroll, a former senior official at the US Department of Defense, responsible for the Middle East, explained to the newspaper.

“If Iran responds to an Israel attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and Hezbollah joins in too, Israel air defenses will be stretched,” she said, adding that US stockpiles are not limitless. “The US can’t continue supplying Ukraine and Israel at the same pace. We are reaching a tipping point,” she added.

Replenishing stocks

Boaz Levy, chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries, a state-owned company which makes the Arrow interceptors used to shoot down ballistic missiles, told the newspaper he is running triple shifts to keep production lines running.

“Some of our lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations,” Levy said, adding that the time required to produce interceptor missiles is “not a matter of days”.

While Israel does not disclose the size of its stockpiles, he added: “It is no secret that we need to replenish stocks.”

The British newspaper explained that until this week, Israel's three-tiered air defense systems have succeeded in intercepting most of the UAVs and missiles fired by Iran and its proxies at the country.

The Iron Dome system intercepted short-range rockets and UAVs fired by Hamas from Gaza, while the David Slingshot intercepted heavier rockets fired from Lebanon, and the Arrow system stopped ballistic missiles from Iran.

During the Iranian attack in April, according to the Israeli army, a 99% interception rate was achieved against the barrage, which included 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles.

Israel reportedly had less success in repelling the second barrage, that took place at the beginning of the month, which included more from 180 ballistic missiles.

Intelligence sources told the newspaper that nearly 30 missiles hit the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel near Be'er Sheva.

200 missiles

The FT report stirred heated debate in Israel. Brigadier General Zvika Chaimovitz, former commander of the air defense system, told Ynet on Tuesday: “The THAAD system is a significant force component and I don't want to compare it with the Arrow system, but in the end, you add dozens more interceptors.”

“It is a significant force that joins our forces, and we have seen scenarios of 200 missiles. It is assumed that if the conflict with Iran continues, we are expected to see more here.”

“The US is a great power. When you look at capabilities, it's not a numbers game. In the end it's a combination of defense and attack,” he remarked.

Yedioth Ahronoth commentator Ron Ben Yishai pointed out in a recent piece that the agreement being formed with the US to place THAAD in Israel is as much a result of American coercion as it is of Israeli necessity.

“The Israeli army’s need is clear: It needs the addition of American interceptor missiles and launchers to deal with the hundreds of missiles that the Iranians may launch, if and when Israel responds to the attack against it on October 1,” he said.

In this case, the quantities and numbers speak for themselves, noted Ben Yishai. “The more missiles are launched in one or two small volleys in order to saturate the defense systems - the more launchers, interceptor missiles and radars are needed,” he continued.

Yair Katz, the head of the workers union at Israel Aircraft Industries, dismissed the claims, stating that “The Financial Times headline is wrong. Israel has enough interceptors to maintain a war on multiple fronts.”