The Negev Desert... Why is it Repeatedly Mentioned as an Alternative for Displacement of Gazans?

A Bedouin village in the Negev Desert (AFP)
A Bedouin village in the Negev Desert (AFP)
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The Negev Desert... Why is it Repeatedly Mentioned as an Alternative for Displacement of Gazans?

A Bedouin village in the Negev Desert (AFP)
A Bedouin village in the Negev Desert (AFP)

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s talk about the Negev Desert as an alternative destination to transfer the Palestinians of Gaza to “until Israel ends its operations,” brought back the spotlight on that region, which has long been mentioned in projects aimed at displacing Palestinians from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, or within various notions known as “land exchange.”

However, the idea of moving the Palestinians to that area has always been met with rejection regionally and internationally, according to experts in Israeli affairs, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat.

The Egyptian president warned on Wednesday of the continuation of military operations in the Gaza Strip, saying that they would have “security and military repercussions that could get out of control.”

In a press conference after talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Sisi stressed that the displacement of Palestinians to Sinai “means transferring the fighting” to that area, which will become “a base for attacking Israel.”

In this context, he pointed to the possibility of transferring the Palestinians to the Negev desert “until Israel ends its operation in Gaza.”

Common borders

The Negev Desert stretches over an area exceeding 14,000 square kilometers, in the southern regions of the occupied Palestinian territories. It borders Jordan to the east and the Sinai Desert to the west. It is separated from the Red Sea by the city of Eilat to the south. The city of Hebron (south of the West Bank) is one of the closest Palestinian cities to its north.

Despite this vast area, the population does not exceed 100,000 citizens, according to Palestinian estimates. Those live in 46 villages, 36 of which are not recognized by the occupation authorities.

According to Palestinian media reports, the Arab communities in the Negev Desert “suffer clear neglect by the Israeli occupation authorities,” despite the establishment of settlements and military projects in limited areas of that region, most notably the Dimona nuclear reactor.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, expert in Israeli affairs at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Dr. Saeed Okasha said the Negev Desert was a poor region in terms of resources.

He emphasized an Israeli desire “to get rid of [the region] in exchange for more useful lands for Israeli settlement projects, or for plans that serve the displacement of Palestinians to neighboring countries.”

Okasha went on to say that the Negev Desert proposal within the ideas of exchanging lands with neighboring countries or with the Palestinian Authority “has been on the table since the 1950s.”

It was presented for the first time to former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, who rejected it.

The expert in Israeli affairs added that the land exchange was proposed again in 2000 to late Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, in exchange for giving up 600 square kilometers of West Bank land to expand Israeli settlements, but Arafat also refused.

In early 2010, former Israeli National Security Advisor Giora Eiland published a study in which he indicated that the new Kingdom of Jordan was the homeland of the Palestinians, and should consist of three regions that include the West and East Banks and Greater Gaza, which takes part of Egypt.

Egyptian writer and political analyst Sleiman Gouda said that the Israelis’ constant feeling of the limited strategic depth of their territories was the reason behind their continuous desire to expand whenever the opportunity arose.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.