'Next Day' Scenarios...Hamas’ Defeat, Return of the PA, and the Two-State Solution

 A Palestinian child sits on the rubble of homes destroyed by the Israeli bombing of Khan Yunis. (Reuters)
A Palestinian child sits on the rubble of homes destroyed by the Israeli bombing of Khan Yunis. (Reuters)
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'Next Day' Scenarios...Hamas’ Defeat, Return of the PA, and the Two-State Solution

 A Palestinian child sits on the rubble of homes destroyed by the Israeli bombing of Khan Yunis. (Reuters)
A Palestinian child sits on the rubble of homes destroyed by the Israeli bombing of Khan Yunis. (Reuters)

By the end of the week, 50 days will have passed since Hamas launched the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, and Israel responded with a devastating attack on the Gaza Strip.

While war is not over yet, all indicators suggest that the future of Gaza is being discussed in the corridors of major powers, to determine the shape of what has become known as “the next day.”

But what do we know about the scenarios being drawn for Gaza’s future?

The Defeat of Hamas

Western countries are drawing their scenarios based on the “inevitability” of the war ending with the defeat of Hamas and the movement’s failure to return to ruling Gaza again.

An informed Western source said that the major capitals are convinced that the clashes will not end before Hamas is defeated militarily, while acknowledging that this Palestinian movement is not only a military power, but also an “ideology” that cannot be eliminated by only using force.

“We know that [Hamas] is also an idea, and an idea is defeated by another,” the source remarked, adding that eliminating the group militarily without defeating it as an idea could “make us win the battle and lose the war.”

While the Israeli army penetrated deep into northern Gaza, Hamas, as well as the smaller Islamic Jihad group, are still daily announcing a series of operations, ambushes, bombings, and rocket launches, which means that they are able to continue confronting the invasion, at least, in the foreseeable future.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters are holed up in a network of tunnels that extend under Gaza City and its suburbs.

However, the prominent Western source does not seem convinced that Hamas will hold out for long in northern Gaza.

“Israel is now preparing to launch its expected attack on Khan Yunis,” he said, which means that the goal of eliminating Hamas militarily is not only limited to the northern Gaza Strip only, but will extend to the south as well.

This matter must raise fears of a huge wave of displacement towards the border with Egypt. It is known that Khan Yunis currently houses hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who were originally displaced from northern Gaza, the focus of the current Israeli attack.

Who will fill the void?

If the scenario of “defeating Hamas” is achieved - as Israel and Western countries hope - a problem will arise about who will fill the vacuum after the fall of its rule, which has continued since 2007.

The Western source said that the current focus is on a role for the Palestinian Authority in governing the Gaza Strip, which the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah linked to a broader agreement that includes “ending the occupation” and implementing a political solution that ends with the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip as well.

While the authority of President Mahmoud Abbas refuses to return to Gaza “onboard an Israeli tank,” the scenarios being discussed by Western diplomats place this matter at the top of the possible options in the next stage.

The informed Western source noted that among the possible options is the training of some members of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza in order to manage the Strip in a future stage, noting that the PA is still paying the salaries of thousands of Palestinian employees, who remained in the Strip after Hamas took control of it in 2007, following a short war that ended with the defeat of the PA security forces.

It seems that the bet on the Authority’s new role in managing Gaza came after Western powers failed to convince Arab countries to assume part of this role by sending forces to the Gaza Strip. The prominent Western source acknowledged that the relevant Arab countries categorically rejected this proposal.

Their refusal is seemed to be linked to the conviction that the priority was to stop the war and help the residents of the Gaza Strip humanitarianly, before thinking about “the next day” and who will rule Gaza if Hamas is defeated.

Reviving the “two-state solution”

In light of the Arab refusal to send forces, and the rejection of the Palestinian Authority to assume a role outside the framework of a comprehensive solution, it seems that the Western focus in the next stage will be on reviving the peace process in order to reach the implementation of the two-state solution.

According to the Western source, the United States is telling its interlocutors that it is determined to launch a major effort to implement the two-state solution, based on its conviction that defeating Hamas militarily is not enough, and that the Palestinians need a state that represents them and lives side by side next to Israel.

He added that the Americans publicly announced their rejection of the Israeli re-occupation of Gaza Strip, as well as any idea of changing its current borders, noting that Washington considers that the features of the solution are defined in the establishment of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders, with a “land exchange” between the two parties, in reference to previous understandings and discussions on this matter between the Palestinian Authority and Israel.

Nonetheless, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said on Friday - as he welcome the Spanish and Belgian prime ministers in Cairo - that reviving the two-state solution path was an exhausted idea, stressing the need to move “to recognize the Palestinian state and bring it into the United Nations.”

Regardless of the Egyptian position, the US effort to revive the two-state solution could face more than one obstacle in the next stage.

First, there is the “Israeli obstacle”. Benjamin Netanyahu’s government includes some extremist settlers who reject the establishment of a Palestinian state, and who insist on expanding settlement in the West Bank, which they call Judea and Samaria, according to the biblical name.

Pushing towards the formation of a Palestinian state will undoubtedly portend the fall of Netanyahu’s government and the holding of new elections, in which right-wing extremists may achieve significant results.

Second, the Biden administration will face another domestic obstacle, represented by a difficult electoral campaign against a stubborn opponent, Donald Trump, whom opinion polls give him a significant lead over his Republican rivals, and also over his Democratic opponent, Biden.

If Trump wins, he will not hesitate to provide greater support to Israel, and won’t be enthusiastic about the establishment of a Palestinian state on the lines demanded by the Palestinian Authority.

A third point must be solved before discussing “the next day”, which is the “Hamas” obstacle. All the scenarios presented are based on the fact that the movement will be defeated militarily and its rule will end. But that has not been achieved yet. Pending its realization, the West Bank and the Lebanese border fronts may explode, and the confrontation between the US and the pro-Iranian militias may expand in both Syria and Iraq, and perhaps in Yemen as well.



What to Know About the Flash Floods in Texas That Killed over 100 People

 Firefighters from Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, transport a recovered body on the flooded Guadalupe River days after a flash flood swept through the area, Monday, July 7, 2025, in Ingram, Texas. (AP)
Firefighters from Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, transport a recovered body on the flooded Guadalupe River days after a flash flood swept through the area, Monday, July 7, 2025, in Ingram, Texas. (AP)
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What to Know About the Flash Floods in Texas That Killed over 100 People

 Firefighters from Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, transport a recovered body on the flooded Guadalupe River days after a flash flood swept through the area, Monday, July 7, 2025, in Ingram, Texas. (AP)
Firefighters from Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, transport a recovered body on the flooded Guadalupe River days after a flash flood swept through the area, Monday, July 7, 2025, in Ingram, Texas. (AP)

Flash floods in Texas killed at least 100 people over the Fourth of July holiday weekend and left others still missing, including girls attending a summer camp. The devastation along the Guadalupe River, outside of San Antonio, has drawn a massive search effort as officials face questions over their preparedness and the speed of their initial actions.

Here's what to know about the deadly flooding, the colossal weather system that drove it in and around Kerr County, Texas, and ongoing efforts to identify victims.

Massive rain hit at just the wrong time, in a flood-prone place

The floods grew to their worst at the midpoint of a long holiday weekend when many people were asleep.

The Texas Hill Country in the central part of the state is naturally prone to flash flooding due to the dry dirt-packed areas where the soil lets rain skid along the surface of the landscape instead of soaking it up. Friday's flash floods started with a particularly bad storm that dropped most of its 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain in the dark early morning hours.

After a flood watch notice midday Thursday, the National Weather Service office issued an urgent warning around 4 a.m. that raised the potential of catastrophic damage and a severe threat to human life. By at least 5:20 a.m., some in the Kerrville City area say water levels were getting alarmingly high. The massive rain flowing down hills sent rushing water into the Guadalupe River, causing it to rise 26 feet (8 meters) in just 45 minutes.

Death toll is expected to rise and the number of missing is uncertain

In Kerr County, home to youth camps in the Texas Hill Country, searchers have found the bodies of 75 people, including 27 children, Sheriff Larry Leitha said Monday morning. Fatalities in nearby counties brought the total number of deaths to 94 as of Monday afternoon.

Ten girls and a counselor were still unaccounted for at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along the river.

For past campers, the tragedy turned happy memories into grief.

Beyond the Camp Mystic campers unaccounted for, the number of missing from other nearby campgrounds and across the region had not been released.

Gov. Greg Abbott on Sunday had said that there were 41 people confirmed to be unaccounted for across the state and more could be missing.

Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said during a Monday news conference he couldn't give an estimate of the number of people still missing, only saying “it is a lot.”

Officials face scrutiny over flash flood warnings

Survivors have described the floods as a “pitch black wall of death” and said they received no emergency warnings.

Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, who lives along the Guadalupe River, said Saturday that “nobody saw this coming.” Officials have referred to it as a “100-year-flood,” meaning that the water levels were highly unlikely based on the historical record.

And records behind those statistics don’t always account for human-caused climate change. Though it’s hard to connect specific storms to a warming planet so soon after they occur, meteorologists say that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and allow severe storms to dump even more rain.

Additionally, officials have come under scrutiny about why residents and youth summer camps along the river were not alerted sooner than 4 a.m. or told to evacuate.

Rice said Monday that he did not immediately know if there had been any communication between law enforcement and the summer camps between 1 a.m. and 4 a.m. on Friday. But Rice said various factors, including spotty cell service in some of the more isolated areas of Kerr County and cell towers that might have gone out of service during the weather, could have hindered communication.

Rice said officials want to finish the search and rescue and then review possible issues with cell towers, radios and emergency alerts.

Officials noted that the public can grow weary from too many flooding alerts or forecasts that turn out to be minor.

Kerr county officials said they had presented a proposal for a more robust flood warning system, similar to a tornado warning system, but that members of the public reeled at the cost.

Monumental clearing and rebuilding effort

The flash floods have erased campgrounds and torn homes from their foundations.

"It’s going to be a long time before we’re ever able to clean it up, much less rebuild it," Kelly said Saturday after surveying the destruction from a helicopter.

Other massive flooding events have driven residents and business owners to give up, including in areas struck last year by Hurricane Helene.

President Donald Trump said he would likely visit the flood zone on Friday.

AP photographers have captured the scale of the destruction, and one of Texas' largest rescue and recovery efforts.