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'Next Day' Scenarios...Hamas’ Defeat, Return of the PA, and the Two-State Solution

A Palestinian child sits on the rubble of homes destroyed by the Israeli bombing of Khan Yunis. (Reuters)
A Palestinian child sits on the rubble of homes destroyed by the Israeli bombing of Khan Yunis. (Reuters)
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'Next Day' Scenarios...Hamas’ Defeat, Return of the PA, and the Two-State Solution

A Palestinian child sits on the rubble of homes destroyed by the Israeli bombing of Khan Yunis. (Reuters)
A Palestinian child sits on the rubble of homes destroyed by the Israeli bombing of Khan Yunis. (Reuters)

By the end of the week, 50 days will have passed since Hamas launched the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, and Israel responded with a devastating attack on the Gaza Strip.

While war is not over yet, all indicators suggest that the future of Gaza is being discussed in the corridors of major powers, to determine the shape of what has become known as “the next day.”

But what do we know about the scenarios being drawn for Gaza’s future?

The Defeat of Hamas

Western countries are drawing their scenarios based on the “inevitability” of the war ending with the defeat of Hamas and the movement’s failure to return to ruling Gaza again.

An informed Western source said that the major capitals are convinced that the clashes will not end before Hamas is defeated militarily, while acknowledging that this Palestinian movement is not only a military power, but also an “ideology” that cannot be eliminated by only using force.

“We know that [Hamas] is also an idea, and an idea is defeated by another,” the source remarked, adding that eliminating the group militarily without defeating it as an idea could “make us win the battle and lose the war.”

While the Israeli army penetrated deep into northern Gaza, Hamas, as well as the smaller Islamic Jihad group, are still daily announcing a series of operations, ambushes, bombings, and rocket launches, which means that they are able to continue confronting the invasion, at least, in the foreseeable future.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters are holed up in a network of tunnels that extend under Gaza City and its suburbs.

However, the prominent Western source does not seem convinced that Hamas will hold out for long in northern Gaza.

“Israel is now preparing to launch its expected attack on Khan Yunis,” he said, which means that the goal of eliminating Hamas militarily is not only limited to the northern Gaza Strip only, but will extend to the south as well.

This matter must raise fears of a huge wave of displacement towards the border with Egypt. It is known that Khan Yunis currently houses hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who were originally displaced from northern Gaza, the focus of the current Israeli attack.

Who will fill the void?

If the scenario of “defeating Hamas” is achieved - as Israel and Western countries hope - a problem will arise about who will fill the vacuum after the fall of its rule, which has continued since 2007.

The Western source said that the current focus is on a role for the Palestinian Authority in governing the Gaza Strip, which the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah linked to a broader agreement that includes “ending the occupation” and implementing a political solution that ends with the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip as well.

While the authority of President Mahmoud Abbas refuses to return to Gaza “onboard an Israeli tank,” the scenarios being discussed by Western diplomats place this matter at the top of the possible options in the next stage.

The informed Western source noted that among the possible options is the training of some members of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza in order to manage the Strip in a future stage, noting that the PA is still paying the salaries of thousands of Palestinian employees, who remained in the Strip after Hamas took control of it in 2007, following a short war that ended with the defeat of the PA security forces.

It seems that the bet on the Authority’s new role in managing Gaza came after Western powers failed to convince Arab countries to assume part of this role by sending forces to the Gaza Strip. The prominent Western source acknowledged that the relevant Arab countries categorically rejected this proposal.

Their refusal is seemed to be linked to the conviction that the priority was to stop the war and help the residents of the Gaza Strip humanitarianly, before thinking about “the next day” and who will rule Gaza if Hamas is defeated.

Reviving the “two-state solution”

In light of the Arab refusal to send forces, and the rejection of the Palestinian Authority to assume a role outside the framework of a comprehensive solution, it seems that the Western focus in the next stage will be on reviving the peace process in order to reach the implementation of the two-state solution.

According to the Western source, the United States is telling its interlocutors that it is determined to launch a major effort to implement the two-state solution, based on its conviction that defeating Hamas militarily is not enough, and that the Palestinians need a state that represents them and lives side by side next to Israel.

He added that the Americans publicly announced their rejection of the Israeli re-occupation of Gaza Strip, as well as any idea of changing its current borders, noting that Washington considers that the features of the solution are defined in the establishment of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders, with a “land exchange” between the two parties, in reference to previous understandings and discussions on this matter between the Palestinian Authority and Israel.

Nonetheless, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said on Friday - as he welcome the Spanish and Belgian prime ministers in Cairo - that reviving the two-state solution path was an exhausted idea, stressing the need to move “to recognize the Palestinian state and bring it into the United Nations.”

Regardless of the Egyptian position, the US effort to revive the two-state solution could face more than one obstacle in the next stage.

First, there is the “Israeli obstacle”. Benjamin Netanyahu’s government includes some extremist settlers who reject the establishment of a Palestinian state, and who insist on expanding settlement in the West Bank, which they call Judea and Samaria, according to the biblical name.

Pushing towards the formation of a Palestinian state will undoubtedly portend the fall of Netanyahu’s government and the holding of new elections, in which right-wing extremists may achieve significant results.

Second, the Biden administration will face another domestic obstacle, represented by a difficult electoral campaign against a stubborn opponent, Donald Trump, whom opinion polls give him a significant lead over his Republican rivals, and also over his Democratic opponent, Biden.

If Trump wins, he will not hesitate to provide greater support to Israel, and won’t be enthusiastic about the establishment of a Palestinian state on the lines demanded by the Palestinian Authority.

A third point must be solved before discussing “the next day”, which is the “Hamas” obstacle. All the scenarios presented are based on the fact that the movement will be defeated militarily and its rule will end. But that has not been achieved yet. Pending its realization, the West Bank and the Lebanese border fronts may explode, and the confrontation between the US and the pro-Iranian militias may expand in both Syria and Iraq, and perhaps in Yemen as well.

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Jamal Mustafa: Saddam and Other Iraqi Officials Headed to the Gallows with Heads Held High

Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Jamal Mustafa: Saddam and Other Iraqi Officials Headed to the Gallows with Heads Held High

Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saddam Hussein’s entourage never expected that they would one day find themselves in jail. It never occurred to them that the American military machine would use all of its might to oust Saddam’s regime and overthrow the ruling party and army. They never believed that forces allied to Iran would assume positions of power in the new regime.

Times changed and Saddam, who controlled the fate of the nation and its people, found himself in prison where he counted the days until his execution. The man was unyielding until his last breath and his will remained unbroken.

The men who made up the Revolutionary Command Council or government soon found themselves in prison. They were interrogated by the Americans and Iraqis and a death sentence was always going to be their fate.

In the second installment of his interview to Asharq Al-Awsat, Dr. Jamal Mustafa al-Sultan, late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s son-in-law and second secretary, recalled the execution of his colleagues and relatives. He also recalled how he married Hala, the youngest of Saddam’s daughters, and how the late president acted around his family, away from state affairs.

Other officials who were held along with Saddam included “Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan, my uncle and member of the Revolutionary Command Council Ali Hussein al-Majid, my other uncle Abed Hassan al-Majid, head of the Revolutionary Command Council Awad al-Bandar, Saddam’s half-brother Barzan Ibrahim al-Hassan, Secretary Abed Hammoud and aide to the intelligence chief Farouk Hijazi,” said Mustafa.

He showed Asharq Al-Awsat a video that recently came to light of Khodair al-Khozaei, the former vice president during the American occupation. “In it, he said that he saw no justification for the death sentence against Abed Hammoud. Most dangerous of all, he confessed that he visited Iran and consulted with a judicial official, who encouraged him to sign the death sentence, which he did,” added Mustafa.

“The truth is that we sensed from the beginning that our trial was a means of revenge acting at Iran’s orders. One day, Abed Hammoud was informed that he was going to be moved to hospital and later that day the guards informed us that he was executed,” he continued.

“Mr. President (Saddam) expected to be executed. The truth is that his very existence, whether in jail or otherwise, was a source of concern for them. I can firmly attest that the members of the leadership bravely faced their death sentence. None of them showed any weakness or faltered,” he revealed.

He recalled the day they informed Barzan and Awad that they were going to be executed. “I was working out with al-Bandar when we received the news. I am not exaggerating when I say that he maintained his optimism even in that moment. They were executed the next day. Days later, I learned that Abed Hassan al-Majid, Farouk Hijazi and Hadi Hassan, an intelligence officer, were executed,” Mustafa said.

“Let me tell you what used to happen. One day, they came up with false charges that before the US occupation, I gave Mr. Khamis al-Khanjar (a Sunni politician) a sum of 250,000 dollars. Of course, the charge is baseless. They told me that I would remain in jail for life if I did not confess to the charge. I refused and told them that I enjoyed normal relations with Khanjar,” he went on to say.

“They later came up with a different scenario. They told me that they would take me to the Iraqi embassy in Jordan if I confessed to the charge and that I would late be released in Amman with a hefty sum of money. I told them that I would reject whatever they have to offer because I would not abandon my values to betray Khanjar, who was a friend,” he stated.

“They later accused me of complicity in the draining of the Mesopotamian Marshes, which I had nothing to do with,” he added.

Saddam Hussein with his daughter Hala in this undated photo. (Getty Images)

First call after Saddam’s execution

Mustafa recalled the first telephone call he had with his wife Hala and her mother, Sajida Khairallah Talfah, right after Saddam’s execution. “Five days after Mr. President’s martyrdom, I contacted my family. I spoke with my wife, and she was in very good spirits. She had very high faith and patience. I asked her about her mother, and she reassured me that she was also doing very well despite the pain,” he said.

“I pray that Gold Almighty will give her health and a long life. We have always derived our strength from her. My mother-in-law lost her two sons, Uday and Qusay, and then her husband. She had played a major role in supporting her husband from the beginning of his struggle. She always used to support him and stood by him throughout his career,” he remarked.

First meetings with Saddam

Mustafa recalled the early days of his meeting with Saddam. “They started when I began working for his special guard. That was when I first met him. Like most Iraqis and Arabs, I believed that he would be a difficult person, but the truth is that I saw him as a paternal figure,” he added. “When you work with him, you begin to develop a different opinion than the public impression. He was a very paternal figure.”

During their first meeting, they learned that they came from the same tribe and were distant cousins.

“I stayed by Mr. President’s side for around 20 years. I started off as part of his personal guard and he then tasked me with people’s affairs, meaning seeing to their needs and addressing their problems. He was very concerned with the people’s affairs and refused any one of them to be wronged. The truth is that many laws were amended or changed at the time following complaints from the people,” he revealed.

“There were two telephones at Mr. President’s office, and both were connected to my office. Whoever had a problem could call the president through the citizens’ line. I used to answer their calls and listen to their problems and set an appointment with the president. Sometimes I used to ask the caller to come in person with their request so that their problem could be tackled. Sometimes Mr. President would interject on the call to ask about the issue and would request to talk to the citizen on the line,” Mustafa said.

“He would listen to the person’s grievance and tell him to head to the dedicated office to tackle the issue. (...) So we used to receive hundreds of citizens every week to solve their problems. Mr. President was very concerned about these issues,” he stressed. “I have never met another person like him. He would listen, care and then come up with a solution.”

President’s son-in-law

Asharq Al-Awsat asked Mustafa about when he asked Hala to marry him. “It was in 1994. As is the tradition in Iraq, I headed with my uncles to Saddam’s family to ask her hand in marriage,” he said. “One of my uncles made the request to Mr. President on my behalf and he agreed and welcomed it.”

“A judge was summoned immediately for the ceremony, and we were married. We had lunch at the president’s house that same day. I first met Hala on September 12, and we were married on September 26. It was a short engagement in line with tradition.”

“Mr. President used to separate state affairs from his relationship with his family. His work was completely separate from family, which had nothing to do with political or state affairs. It never intervened in those issues. Mr. President was a man of state when he was doing his job, and a father when he came home. He treated his family as if he were its father – the perfect father. Every family wishes to have a father that can measure up to him because he looked after all of his children and all of his relatives,” Mustafa said.

“When he sat down to the dinner table, he himself used to serve his own food and ask his children about their day. He would serve them food and generally cared very much for them. The state is one thing and family is another. At the same time, he acted as a father to all Iraqis. He treated them fairly. This is Saddam Hussein,” stressed Mustafa. “He was always keen that Iraqis be treated justly and that none of them be wronged. He was also very firm with his children if they made any mistake.”

Saddam’s hobbies

Saddam was a “very traditional Arab man. He loved traditional Arab and Iraqi dishes. He himself used to cook his own version of the traditional Iraqi dish al-Habeet. (...) He also loved seafood and would cook the Masgouf fish dish himself,” Mustafa told Asharq Al-Awsat.

His hobbies included horseback riding, hunting, swimming and sharpshooting. “Occasionally, before heading to the front to fight against Iran, he would visit the al-Amarah region, where gazelle and geese are abundant, to hunt. As circumstances became more challenging, he limited himself to fishing, which he did regularly,” he added.

He was a skilled shooter from his youth. “Generally, growing up in a tribe, children are taught at a young age how to become a good shooter. This is part of our upbringing. He was also an avid reader. He was always reading something,” Mustafa said of Saddam.