Netanyahu’s Two-Front War Against Hamas and for His Own Political Survival 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Cabinet minister Benny Gantz, speaks during a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, Israel, 28 October 2023. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Cabinet minister Benny Gantz, speaks during a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, Israel, 28 October 2023. (Reuters)
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Netanyahu’s Two-Front War Against Hamas and for His Own Political Survival 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Cabinet minister Benny Gantz, speaks during a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, Israel, 28 October 2023. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Cabinet minister Benny Gantz, speaks during a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, Israel, 28 October 2023. (Reuters)

Inside Israeli defense headquarters, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu monitored the first release of Hamas-held hostages while outside, their families in a Tel Aviv square gathered around Benny Gantz, his leading challenger for the top job.

On camera Gantz, a former army chief and opposition leader who joined Netanyahu's war cabinet last month, pointedly asked a TV crew to leave him alone with the families. Photos published later showed him hugging individuals in the crowd.

Facing a huge wave of criticism over his failure to prevent the shock Hamas infiltration of Israel on Oct. 7, Netanyahu has largely avoided the limelight while conducting a two-front war, one against Hamas and the other for his own political survival.

Netanyahu, 74, has long maintained an image as a security hawk, tough on Iran and backed by an army that ensured Jews would never again suffer a Holocaust - only to experience on his watch the deadliest single incident in Israel's 75-year-old history.

Israelis have shunned some of Netanyahu's fellow cabinet ministers, blaming them for failing to prevent the Palestinian Hamas gunmen from entering from Gaza, killing 1,200 people, abducting 240 more and engulfing the country in war.

In separate incidents, at least three of his ministers were subjected to derision and abuse when they appeared in public, underscoring the scale of public fury over the failures that paved the way for Hamas to carry out the attack.

Over the weekend, his office issued videos showing him in the Defense Ministry situation room. On Sunday, Netanyahu visited Gaza. His office issued photos afterwards showing him in a helmet and flak jacket meeting soldiers and commanders.

Known by his nickname "Bibi," Netanyahu stands to gain from a war that further delays his 3-1/2 year-old corruption trial and puts off an expected state inquiry into why Israel under his leadership was caught off guard.

Huddling with generals, he may also hope to salvage his reputation through his conduct of the war and the return of hostages while refusing to accept responsibility and dismissing a question at a rare press conference asking if he would resign.

But his biographer Anshel Pfeffer said: "No matter how long Netanyahu manages to hold on to power, he won’t salvage his reputation.

"He is now tainted irretrievably by the failure to prevent the Oct. 7 massacre, by his own strategy of allowing Hamas to remain in control, with its military arsenal, in Gaza and by the utterly inept civil relief efforts of his government since the Oct. 7 attack."

The author of the 2018 book "Bibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu," Pfeffer said surveys in recent weeks showed Israelis trusting the security establishment to lead the war effort, but not Netanyahu.

"The failure of Oct. 7 is his legacy. Whatever success Israel will have in the aftermath will not be ascribed to him."

NETANYAHU VOWS TO CONTROL SECURITY IN GAZA INDEFINITELY

Netanyahu has vowed to control security in Gaza indefinitely, adding uncertainty to the fate of an enclave where for seven weeks Israel was on the attack before forging a temporary truce with Hamas and the freeing of hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian detainees from Israel.

Some 14,800 Palestinians have been killed in the war, Gaza health authorities say, and hundreds of thousands displaced.

Israel's longest-serving prime minister, Netanyahu has survived many a political crisis, staged several comebacks, and need not face another election for three years if his coalition remains in tact.

"I know him very well and he concentrates on what he is doing, he is really a very hard-working person and now he is running a war and he is holding, like a juggler, half-a-dozen balls in the air - and to keep them only in the air he must concentrate," said Abraham Diskin, professor emeritus of political science at Jerusalem's Hebrew University.

"To go out and face people who shout at you and really hate you, there is no benefit of doing that, so he decided to give it up," Diskin said.

GANTZ IN CABINET OFFERS NETANYAHU STABILITY

Slim, tall and blue-eyed with an easy way about him, Gantz, 64, joined an Israeli war cabinet that Netanyahu formed days after the Hamas attack to unite the country behind a campaign to destroy Hamas and retrieve the hostages.

With nearly 40 years in the military, the centrist Gantz offers Netanyahu and his rightist Likud party a more stable government that reduces the influence of the far-right and religious coalition partners on the fringes of Israeli society.

United in war perhaps, they are at odds politically.

He, Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant of Likud have together held press conferences. A photo of one such event that went viral on social media captured Netanyahu alone, and Gallant and Gantz standing together off to the side.

A Nov. 16 opinion poll found the Netanyahu-led coalition that won 64 seats in a November 2022 election would garner 45 in the 120-member Knesset today compared with 70 seats of parties led by Gantz's National Unity Party, enough to assume power.

The survey for Israel's Channel 12 took place a week before Qatar announced the hostage deal and was conducted among 502 respondents by pollster Mano Geva and the company Midgam and had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Gantz has little of Netanyahu's experience or flair on the world stage, and critics say his laid-back manner shows indecisiveness and a lack of principles. Gantz has described himself as having more grit than varnish.

Often perceived as being every bit as hawkish on Palestinians as Netanyahu, Gantz has stopped short of any commitment to the statehood they seek, but in the past backed efforts to restart peace talks with them.

Israelis have gone to the polls five times in the last five years. No single party has ever won a simple parliamentary majority, and a coalition of parties has always been required. With a war on, no one is suggesting holding elections again.

But two weeks ago centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid said it was time to replace Netanyahu without going to elections.

He suggested there would be broad support for a unity government led by Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party, but no one within Likud has emerged to challenge Netanyahu.

"We can't afford another election cycle in the coming year in which we continue to fight and explain why the other side is a disaster," Lapid wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.



Trump Balances War Drums and Brinkmanship With Iran

US fighter jets aboard the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln (AFP)
US fighter jets aboard the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln (AFP)
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Trump Balances War Drums and Brinkmanship With Iran

US fighter jets aboard the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln (AFP)
US fighter jets aboard the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln (AFP)

All indications suggest that US military action against Iran may be imminent. Yet the paradox is that edging toward the brink of confrontation may itself be part of negotiations being conducted under intense pressure.

Mutual threats, naval and air deployments, and deterrence messages are carefully calibrated to demonstrate seriousness without sliding into a war that President Donald Trump’s administration does not want.

Trump has repeatedly spoken of an “armada” in the region, while at the same time saying Tehran is sending signals of readiness to negotiate, a deliberate dual track aimed at keeping the adversary uncertain.

This tension between preparing for a strike and keeping the door to a deal ajar aligns with Farzin Nadimi's assessment. Nadimi is a senior Iran analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Nadimi said he cannot predict what the US president will ultimately decide, adding that regardless of what Trump says to the media, the military buildup points to limited, focused strikes or a scaled-down military campaign.

According to Nadimi, such a campaign would intend to punish and deter the Iranian regime, weaken its ability to retaliate against the United States and its allies, and or disrupt oil flows from the Gulf.

The implication is that the buildup is not mere showmanship but the creation of an operational environment that enables a rapid strike if the political channel fails, without becoming mired in a prolonged war.

Calibrated options

The entry of the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and its strike group into the US Central Command area of operations in the western Indian Ocean shortens the timeline for possible action if a political decision is taken.

This has coincided with additional air reinforcements, including the deployment of F-15 fighter jets.

Together, these elements give Washington a ladder of options: a limited strike, a series of time-phased military strikes, or a defensive posture designed to raise the cost of any Iranian retaliation against US bases and allies.

But a “limited strike” is not just a technical choice; it is a political one, conditioned on answering a central question: what exactly does Washington want to achieve, and what is the “off-ramp” that would allow it to declare success and return to negotiations?

Here, Nadimi voices skepticism. He expressed doubts about the ability to achieve these objectives with such limited means.

A “mini” campaign may appear attractive because it avoids full-scale war, but it may not ensure deterrence or protect energy flows if Tehran opts for asymmetric retaliation, explained Nadimi.

Iran’s threats as a constraint

On the other side, Tehran and its regional allies have raised the tone of their threats. Iranian officials have warned of a “more painful” response if attacked, while statements from Hezbollah, Iraqi factions, and Yemen’s Houthis signal readiness to join any confrontation.

Such rhetoric serves the purpose of deterrence and boosting morale within the axis, but it carries a structural risk: the higher the ceiling of threats, the narrower the space for de-escalation.

The likelihood grows that an undisciplined actor, a faction or militia, could ignite an action that forces everyone into a “a cycle of retaliation,” widening the conflict beyond the calculus of a “limited” strike.

This is why Washington, according to reports, has focused on sending warning messages to Baghdad and to armed actors that any targeting of US forces would be met with direct retaliation against militias. The aim is to curb slippage that could turn a single strike into multiple fronts.

At the core of US concern is not only Iran’s ability to retaliate, but where it might do so. US bases across Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf are vulnerable targets in any escalation.

The buildup, therefore, has a clear defensive dimension, reinforcing interception systems and maritime and air defenses to contain missiles and drones.

While this is meant to protect forces, it also seeks to keep escalation in check: deterring or neutralizing retaliatory strikes so they do not force Washington into larger steps.

Alternatives to war

If force is used, the most likely scenario would involve limited, time-phased strikes targeting air defenses, missile sites, command-and-control nodes, and possibly sensitive facilities, before stopping at a point that allows a return to the political track.

The stated or implicit goal would be “punishment” and “deterrence” without ground entanglement.

Iran, however, always retains room to respond below the threshold but in painful ways, through proxies, disruption of shipping, or gradual attrition that embarrasses Washington and its allies and pushes them toward harder choices.

Here again, Nadimi questions whether limited tools would suffice, noting that success is not measured by the number of missiles launched on the first night, but by Washington’s ability to prevent Tehran from redefining the battlefield and its timing.

Targeting the leadership

In such crises, the question of “decapitation” often arises: could Washington move to target Iran’s leadership?

Nadimi addresses this cautiously, saying that targeting the supreme leader would be conceivable only “if there were a high probability of success and a low risk of casualties among US forces.”

He stresses the need to remember “the fundamental differences between Iran and Venezuela,” underscoring that what might be imagined in one political or security environment cannot be simply transplanted into Iran’s far more fortified and complex system.

Still, Nadimi adds that “the possibility of an internal operation should not be ruled out,” a phrase suggesting that the most dangerous scenarios may not begin with a missile, but with an internal rupture or movement intersecting with external pressure.

The heaviest factor in Washington’s calculations is not fear of immediate military defeat, but uncertainty about “the day after” if the system were shaken or lost control.

Iran is a large country with a complex institutional and security structure. Any major fracture could unleash a chain of scenarios, including factional conflict, security vacuums, economic turmoil, refugee flows, and immediate shocks to energy markets and the region.

Seen through this lens, the US buildup is also a negotiating tool: a threat sufficient to open doors without assuming responsibility for the consequences of collapse.

In sum, the Trump administration appears to be holding two threads at once: building up forces to make a strike an immediate option, and signaling enough pressure to force Tehran to consider negotiations, while trying to keep any confrontation below the threshold of a “mini campaign,” not a full-scale war.


Gazans Long for Reopening of ‘Lifeline’ Rafah Crossing

A gate at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, in Rafah, Egypt, January 27, 2026. (Reuters)
A gate at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, in Rafah, Egypt, January 27, 2026. (Reuters)
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Gazans Long for Reopening of ‘Lifeline’ Rafah Crossing

A gate at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, in Rafah, Egypt, January 27, 2026. (Reuters)
A gate at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, in Rafah, Egypt, January 27, 2026. (Reuters)

With Gaza's vital Rafah border crossing expected to soon reopen, residents of the war-shattered territory are hoping to reunite with family members, or are looking to leave themselves.

The Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt is the Palestinian territory's only gateway to the outside world that does not lead to Israel and is a key entry point for both people and goods.

It has been closed since Israeli forces took control of it in May 2024, except for a limited reopening in early 2025, and other bids to reopen failed to materialize.

Following a US-brokered ceasefire that took effect in October, Rafah is expected to reopen for pedestrians, after visiting US envoys reportedly pressed Israeli officials to reopen the crossing.

"Opening the Rafah crossing means opening the door to life for me. I haven't seen my wife and children for two years since they left at the beginning of the war and I was prevented from travelling," said 48-year-old Mahmud al-Natour, who hails from Gaza City.

"My children are growing up far away from me, and the years are passing by as if we are cut off from the world and life itself," he told AFP.

Randa Samih, 48, also called the crossing "the lifeline of Gaza," but is worried about whether she would be able to leave.

She had applied for an exit permit to get treatment for her injured back, which she fears might not be serious enough to be allowed out.

"There are tens of thousands of injuries in Gaza, most of them more serious than mine," she said.

"We'll die or our health will decline before we get to travel."

- 'Limited reopening' -

Gaza, a tiny territory surrounded by Israel, Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea, has been under Israeli blockade even before Hamas's attack sparked the war.

Palestinian gunmen took 251 people hostage on October 7, 2023, in an attack that killed 1,221 others, most of them civilians.

Israel's retaliatory offensive has killed at least 71,662 Palestinians, according to figures from the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza that the United Nations considers reliable. The ministry does not say how many of the dead were fighters, though its data shows that more than half were women and children.

Ali Shaath heads the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), created as part of the ceasefire agreement. He announced last week that Rafah would reopen in both directions.

Israel said it would only allow pedestrians to travel through the crossing as part of its "limited reopening" once it had recovered the remains of the last hostage, Ran Gvili.

His remains were brought back to Israel later on Monday.

A Palestinian official told AFP on condition of anonymity that "estimates indicate that the Rafah crossing could be opened in both directions by the end of this week or early next week".

A member of the NCAG told AFP that the technocratic committee would be responsible for sending lists of travelers' names to the Israeli authorities for approval.

Outward travel will initially be limited to patients, the injured, students with university admission and visas, and holders of Egyptian citizenship or other nationalities and residency permits, the source said.

- 'Burning with anticipation' -

Gharam al-Jamla, a displaced Palestinian living in a tent in southern Gaza, told AFP she counted on the crossing's opening for her future.

"My dreams lie beyond the Rafah crossing. I applied for several scholarships to study journalism in English at universities in Türkiye. I received initial acceptance from two universities there," the 18-year-old said.

She added she would then want to return to Gaza "to be one of its voices to convey the truth to the world."

Gaza's civil defense agency spokesman, Mahmud Bassal, appealed for the full reopening of Rafah to allow the entry of unlimited aid and equipment for reconstruction.

"There are thousands of bodies under the rubble, including children, women and people with disabilities, which have not been recovered since the beginning of the war," he said.

The civil defense is a rescue force operating under Hamas authority.

Mohammed Khaled, 18, said he wanted to move on from the war.

"I'm burning with anticipation," he told AFP.

"I haven't seen my mother and sisters for two years. My mother traveled for medical treatment, and they only allowed my sisters to accompany her."

Khaled said he also hoped to be able to travel to have surgery for a shrapnel injury sustained during the war.


The Rafah Crossing Is Gaza’s Lifeline to the World and Could Open Soon

This picture taken on August 27, 2023 shows a view of the entrance of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt in the southern Gaza Strip. (AFP)
This picture taken on August 27, 2023 shows a view of the entrance of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt in the southern Gaza Strip. (AFP)
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The Rafah Crossing Is Gaza’s Lifeline to the World and Could Open Soon

This picture taken on August 27, 2023 shows a view of the entrance of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt in the southern Gaza Strip. (AFP)
This picture taken on August 27, 2023 shows a view of the entrance of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt in the southern Gaza Strip. (AFP)

Palestinians are eagerly awaiting the reopening of the Rafah border crossing, which is Gaza’s lifeline and only gateway to the outside world that wasn’t controlled by Israel before the war.

The opening is expected after Israel on Monday announced that the remains of the final hostage in Gaza, Ran Gvili, had been recovered. Hours earlier, Israel had said it would open the Rafah crossing with limitations once the search operation for Gvili was complete.

The opening of the crossing between Gaza and Egypt, which was controlled by Egypt before the war, is seen as ushering in the second phase of the US-brokered ceasefire, though its opening had been called for as part of the first phase.

Here’s why the crossing is so vital.

What comes next

It is not immediately clear when the crossing will open and whether it will allow the flow of goods and people both into and out of the war-shattered territory. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office late Sunday said Israel had agreed to a reopening “for pedestrian passage only, subject to a full Israeli inspection mechanism.”

Hamas in a statement Monday called on Israel to open the Rafah crossing in both directions “without restrictions.” Ali Shaath, head of the new Palestinian committee administering Gaza’s daily affairs, last week said the crossing would be opened this week to facilitate movement to and from the enclave.

A reopened Rafah crossing would make it easier for Gazans to seek medical treatment, travel internationally or visit family in Egypt, which is home to tens of thousands of Palestinians. It would also help Gaza’s devastated economy, as Palestinian-made olive oil and other products are widely sold in Egypt and throughout the Arab world.

“We hope this will close off Israel’s pretexts and open the crossing,” said Abdel-Rahman Radwan, a Gaza City resident whose mother is a cancer patient and requires treatment outside Gaza.

Israel also has said Palestinians wanting to leave Gaza will have to get Israeli and Egyptian security approval. Egypt says it wants the crossing immediately opened in both directions, so Palestinians in Egypt can enter Gaza. Egypt has been opposed to Palestinian refugees permanently resettling in that country.

A lifeline for Gaza

With much of Gaza turned to rubble, the United Nations has said the territory’s population of over 2 million people needs a massive influx of fuel, food, medicine and tents. While some aid has entered via the crossing, trucks have been lined up outside it for months while waiting for the chance to enter.

Before the war, the Rafah crossing bustled with goods and people. Although Gaza has four other border crossings, they are shared with Israel, and only Rafah links the territory with another neighboring country.

After Hamas-led fighters sparked the war by attacking southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Egypt tightened its restrictions on traffic through the Rafah crossing. Israel took control of the Gaza side in May 2024 as part of its offensive and closed the crossing except to the occasional medical evacuation.

Questions about the future

The Gaza side of the Rafah crossing was heavily damaged during the war. Once it does reopen, Israel has agreed to adhere to the humanitarian terms put in place for the previous ceasefire that took effect in January 2025, including allowing a certain number of truckloads of aid per day into Gaza.

With the current ceasefire deal calling for Hamas to have no role in running Gaza, it’s unclear who will operate the territory’s side of the Rafah crossing once the war ends.

The crossing also will be central to Gaza's reconstruction. Last week, US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and Middle East adviser Jared Kushner said postwar construction would first focus on building “workforce housing” in Rafah, the nearby southern city currently controlled by Israeli troops.

But Netanyahu on Monday told Israel's parliament, the Knesset: “We are at the start of the next (ceasefire) phase. What is the next phase? The next phase is disarming Hamas and demilitarizing the Gaza Strip. The next phase is not reconstruction.”

Meanwhile, humanitarian supplies inch forward. On Monday, the Egyptian Red Crescent facilitated the entry of a convoy carrying over 7,060 tons of food and medical aid through the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing en route to Israeli inspection at Kerem Shalom before it potentially heads into Gaza, according to Egypt’s State Information Service.