Saudi Arabia in 2024: Positive Expectations Underpinned by Political Will and Economic Capacities

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the South Korean President attend a session of the Future Investment Initiative (SPA)
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the South Korean President attend a session of the Future Investment Initiative (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia in 2024: Positive Expectations Underpinned by Political Will and Economic Capacities

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the South Korean President attend a session of the Future Investment Initiative (SPA)
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the South Korean President attend a session of the Future Investment Initiative (SPA)

In an increasingly uncertain world, constants remain our main reference for forecasting the near future. These constants, the factors upon which projections about the future are based, can be summarized into three factors: The first is political will, the primary determinant of the direction a state will take and the objectives it sets.

The second is economic capacity, which enables states to execute their political will and allows them to turn plans into tangible reality.

As for the third factor, it is global changes, which can either positively or negatively affect the implementation of these plans. This is the major cause for uncertainty regarding the future, and state policies play a crucial role in determining it. When applying this perspective to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, one can anticipate what the next year might look like.

Saudi Arabia 2023

Starting with political will, domestically, the Kingdom continues to pursue its ambitious Vision 2030 - a pursuit reinforced by the fact that it has achieved targets ahead of schedule. Many of these initiatives have certainly started to bear fruit, especially those that began early in restructuring some of the state's sectors.

The Kingdom did not stop at the programs it launched with the inception of its Vision. It pursued many projects and initiatives in sectors such as tourism, entertainment, and sports. In the latter, the implications of the state's determination to transform plans into reality are particularly evident. In just a few years, the Saudi football league has stolen the spotlight from globally followed football leagues, with the world turning its attention to the Kingdom after the sports sector was restricted and the role of the private sector in the sports system was invigorated.

Since the Vision is comprehensive and encompasses all vital sectors, the interconnections of its different projects and their mutual reinforcement of one another have become evident. For example, recognizing the need for logistical support in the tourism sector, the Public Investment Fund launched Riyadh Air to help the Kingdom reach tourism targets.

This principle of interconnectedness applies to many intersections within the Vision. The progress made in these various sectors is further enhanced by the direct oversight of the Kingdom's senior leadership over national strategies, which ensures the integration and staves off redundancies.

Political will in the Kingdom also has obvious implications for its foreign relations with other countries. For years, the Kingdom has built bridges of communication with the world under the banner of shared interests and the exchange of values. 2022 concluded with the visit of the Chinese President to Riyadh, and these high-level visits continued into 2023, with the Kingdom hosting several major summits, such as the Saudi-African Summit, the Gulf-ASEAN Summit, the Saudi-Caribbean Summit, the Arab Summit, and the Islamic Summit.

The objectives of these summits vary and include political, economic, and cultural aspects. However, the Kingdom takes the same approach to all countries with shared interests and mutual benefits.

The Kingdom also participated in global summits, notably the G20 Summit in India and the Summit for a New Financing Pact in Paris. The impact of these efforts and international visits became apparent when the Kingdom won the bid to host Expo 2030 by attaining the majority of votes from countries and leveraging its strong global relationships.

Economic capacity

The second factor is economic capacity, which may be represented by the state budget for the next year. The Kingdom has continued to expand spending, setting a budget of over 1.2 trillion Riyals, while making conservative revenue projections. The deficit in the state's general budget did not exceed 2 percent, and the government continues to spend on various sectors without making any significant changes, thereby ensuring the continuity of the state's strategies for these sectors and their alignment with the shifts all around us.

While oil revenues decreased due to OPEC's proactive policy to maintain market stability, non-oil revenues continued to increase, reaching 441 billion riyals - about 37 percent of the state's revenues, up from approximately 32.5 percent in 2018.

The Kingdom's capacity to keep up this spending reflects two things: first, it is confident that its economy is solid, and it can sustain this expansionary spending without increasing public debt relative to GDP or depleting its reserves; second, its commitment to pursuing the programs of Vision 2030 and its reassurance about their positive outcomes for the national economy.

Global changes

The third factor is global changes, which can either pose risks or create opportunities for the Kingdom. These changes could be geopolitical, such as the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, which affects the stability of oil prices, or changes in the course of Israel’s assault on Gaza, which impacts the entire region, or the Houthi attacks disrupting maritime navigation in the Red Sea.

These changes may also be reflected in the global economy. Global economic growth remains slow due to factors such as inflation, the austere monetary policies adopted by central banks to curb it, and the aftermath of the pandemic, which has had an impact on global supply chains.

Saudi Arabia 2024

The forecasts for the Saudi economy in the next year are generally positive. Fitch predicted that the Saudi economy would grow between 2.6 and 3.3 percent, while Moody's expects growth of around 4.6 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its growth projections for the Kingdom to 4 percent in a short period. The preliminary budget statement from the Ministry of Finance has said that real GDP is expected to grow by 4.4 percent.

These forecasts are driven by several factors, including the events of 2023 and the policies being pursued by the Kingdom. Despite reducing its oil production, the Kingdom's revenues increased this year. This increase was driven by rising non-oil revenues, and these revenues are expected to continue to rise next year, as they have over the past five years.

This increase is due to the increasing role of the private sector, which has been invigorated by various government measures and programs tied to Vision 2030. This approach taken by the Saudi government is to mitigate potential risks in global oil markets. That is among the major axes of Vision 2030, which aims to diversify revenue sources in order to ensure sustainable growth and development in the Kingdom.

The developments seen in 2023 reflect a number of projections. For example, it would not be surprising if Saudi Arabia launched several projects related to its hosting of Expo 2030. These could include determining the location of the event, holding activities such as conferences tied to the Expo, like exhibitions, and strategic plans, and possibly establishing a governmental body tasked with overseeing this major event.

Moreover, we can also expect changes in the Saudi sports sector next year. Given that Saudi Arabia began privatizing clubs by transferring the ownership of four clubs to the Public Investment Fund, this trend could continue next year, with more clubs being transferred to major Saudi companies.

An increase in pace at the Ministry of Sports can also be anticipated in preparation for the expected announcement of its successful bid to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup. This preparation might involve submitting a proposal that includes constructing new stadiums and infrastructure to ensure that the Kingdom provides fans with a distinguished experience and that the sports sector meets the high aspirations that have been set for it.

With Saudi Arabia hosting Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup, many infrastructure projects are anticipated. These include ongoing large-scale infrastructure projects in Riyadh, such as King Salman Airport, the Qiddiya Project, King Salman Park, and other significant initiatives. Other cities in the Kingdom that may play an important role, especially in organizing the World Cup, are also expected to see major projects.

Those following the progress being made on Vision 2030 projects can see that it started with several ambitious projects like NEOM, Red Sea, Amaala, and Qiddiya. It began with the launch of numerous projects in Riyadh at the start of Vision 2030, and then we saw other projects in other cities, such as Jeddah Central, Rua Al Medina, and the Sudah and Abha Airport projects.

This might indicate that more projects will be seen in other cities across the Kingdom, whether broad infrastructure projects or sight-specific ones, like agricultural projects suited to cities and their geography and environment. This means that the next year will see the persistence, God willing, of Vision 2030, and the expansion of its initiatives to more Saudi cities that align with their cultural and geographical characteristics.

Flexibility of the Kingdom

The Kingdom has shown itself to be flexible through how it has dealt with economic and political events in recent years. It was not significantly affected by the inflation generated by the pandemic, unlike other countries, and it managed to stave off the negative repercussions of global geopolitical conflicts. Rather, it launched global initiatives aimed at addressing the ramifications of these developments, as it had with its initiatives for global supply chains.

It is not surprising that this approach will continue next year, with precautions being taken to avoid any changes that could negatively impact its economic and strategic interests. The Kingdom will leverage the robustness of its economy and global relationships to find solutions that ensure prosperity, all while maintaining its national project aimed at elevating its strategic and vital sectors.



Sidelined by Trump, Macron Tries to Rally Europe on Ukraine. But Divisions Run Deep

French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz before an informal summit of European leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and European security at the Élysée Presidential Palace in Paris on February 17, 2025. (AFP)
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz before an informal summit of European leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and European security at the Élysée Presidential Palace in Paris on February 17, 2025. (AFP)
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Sidelined by Trump, Macron Tries to Rally Europe on Ukraine. But Divisions Run Deep

French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz before an informal summit of European leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and European security at the Élysée Presidential Palace in Paris on February 17, 2025. (AFP)
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz before an informal summit of European leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and European security at the Élysée Presidential Palace in Paris on February 17, 2025. (AFP)

French President Emmanuel Macron painted a veneer of European unity by inviting a small number of handpicked European leaders to the Élysée Palace, while the Trump administration sidelined the continent by moving ahead with direct negotiations on Tuesday with Russia on the war in Ukraine. But beneath the diplomatic pageantry, cracks in European consensus were hard to ignore.

One question loomed: Could Europe take charge of its own security, or would it remain reactive to US and Russian decisions?

From Macron’s push for European-led defense to Keir Starmer’s “third way” diplomacy, Giorgia Meloni’s balancing act between Brussels and Washington, and Olaf Scholz’s resistance to breaking with NATO, Europe remains divided on its next move.

France – Macron seeks to take the lead

By hosting the Monday summit in his Parisian palace, Macron reinforced his image of the imperial French “Sun King” and his bid to become the dominant voice on Ukraine and European security. With Germany’s Scholz politically weakened, the UK outside the EU, and Italy leaning toward Trump, Macron has emerged as the bloc’s most vocal advocate for strategic autonomy.

With a presidential mandate until 2027 and France’s nuclear arsenal making it Europe’s only atomic power, Macron has positioned himself as the only leader with both the ambition and authority to act. His proposal for a European-led security force in Ukraine, even in a limited training and logistics role, fits into his broader push for a continent less dependent on Washington.

But forging consensus is proving difficult: Germany is resisting, key frontline EU nations were left out of the summit, and Trump’s unpredictability clouds Europe’s security outlook.

“Since his first term, Macron has sought to impose himself as Europe’s strongman,” said French political analyst Jean-Yves Camus. “He has always presented himself as the natural leader of liberals against nationalist populists. One cannot say that this has worked well.”

While Macron is setting the stage, the question remains: Is Europe ready to follow?

United Kingdom – Starmer’s ‘third way’ strategy

Keir Starmer is charting a different course, positioning himself as Europe’s key link to Washington — while maintaining a firm pro-Ukraine stance.

Having met Trump before the election —“I like him a lot,” the US president said — the British prime minister is set to travel to Washington next week in what some see as an effort to bridge the US-Europe divide, and a hallmark of the “special relationship.”

While Trump moves toward de-escalation in Ukraine, Starmer is doubling down on support for Kyiv, stating the UK is “ready and willing” to send British troops if necessary. This stance stands in contrast to Macron and Scholz’s more cautious approach.

Starmer’s surprising decision not to sign a key international declaration on the future of AI last week — aligning with the US rather than the EU — has raised questions about whether Britain is shifting closer to Washington on broader geopolitical issues.

“The UK is unique in that it’s practically the only major ally that Trump hasn’t purposefully antagonized since his inauguration,” said Anand Sundar, a special advisor at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The Starmer government is doing everything it can to not put a target on its back.”

Some analysts suggest Starmer is positioning himself as Trump’s European “whisperer,” able to influence the White House while staying in step with Europe.

Italy – Meloni’s balancing act

Giorgia Meloni, the only leader of a major European economy to attend Trump’s inauguration in January, arrived late to the Paris summit and left without making a public statement - moves observers saw as signs of skepticism toward the meeting.

According to Italian news agency ANSA, Meloni questioned why the summit was held in Paris rather than Brussels, the EU’s natural decision-making hub, and criticized the exclusion of frontline states such as the Baltic nations, Sweden, and Finland.

At the summit, she pushed back against deploying European troops to Ukraine, calling it “the most complex and least effective option” - especially without firm security guarantees for Kyiv.

Observers noted that Meloni echoed some of US Vice President JD Vance’s criticism of Europe’s reliance on US protection. “We shouldn’t be asking what the Americans can do for us, but what we must do for ourselves,” she said, according to ANSA.

Despite her skepticism, Meloni still engaged in the talks, bringing Italy’s concerns over long-term European military commitments to the table.

Hungary – Orban’s absence

Notably absent from the Paris talks was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a close Trump ally and frequent critic of EU policies.

While no official reason was given for his exclusion, some observers saw it as a pointed message from Paris and its European allies about the limits of engagement with leaders seen as too closely aligned with Trump’s worldview.

Germany – Scholz’s irritation

If Macron is stepping forward, Scholz is pushing back.

At the summit, the German Chancellor rejected Macron’s proposal for a European-led security force in Ukraine, calling it “completely premature” and “highly inappropriate” given the ongoing war.

Scholz didn’t hide his frustration, saying he was “a little irritated” that peacekeeping forces were even being discussed “at the wrong time.” He insisted NATO—not an independent European force—must remain the foundation of security.

Due to its historical legacy from the world wars, some argue that Germany has always been willing to cede European security leadership to France, a role the French have pursued since President Charle de Gaulle.

At the same time, the debate over military spending is intensifying, as NATO officials stress the alliance’s 2% GDP target is now a baseline rather than a cap.