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Saudi Arabia in 2024: Positive Expectations Underpinned by Political Will and Economic Capacities

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the South Korean President attend a session of the Future Investment Initiative (SPA)
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the South Korean President attend a session of the Future Investment Initiative (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia in 2024: Positive Expectations Underpinned by Political Will and Economic Capacities

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the South Korean President attend a session of the Future Investment Initiative (SPA)
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the South Korean President attend a session of the Future Investment Initiative (SPA)

In an increasingly uncertain world, constants remain our main reference for forecasting the near future. These constants, the factors upon which projections about the future are based, can be summarized into three factors: The first is political will, the primary determinant of the direction a state will take and the objectives it sets.

The second is economic capacity, which enables states to execute their political will and allows them to turn plans into tangible reality.

As for the third factor, it is global changes, which can either positively or negatively affect the implementation of these plans. This is the major cause for uncertainty regarding the future, and state policies play a crucial role in determining it. When applying this perspective to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, one can anticipate what the next year might look like.

Saudi Arabia 2023

Starting with political will, domestically, the Kingdom continues to pursue its ambitious Vision 2030 - a pursuit reinforced by the fact that it has achieved targets ahead of schedule. Many of these initiatives have certainly started to bear fruit, especially those that began early in restructuring some of the state's sectors.

The Kingdom did not stop at the programs it launched with the inception of its Vision. It pursued many projects and initiatives in sectors such as tourism, entertainment, and sports. In the latter, the implications of the state's determination to transform plans into reality are particularly evident. In just a few years, the Saudi football league has stolen the spotlight from globally followed football leagues, with the world turning its attention to the Kingdom after the sports sector was restricted and the role of the private sector in the sports system was invigorated.

Since the Vision is comprehensive and encompasses all vital sectors, the interconnections of its different projects and their mutual reinforcement of one another have become evident. For example, recognizing the need for logistical support in the tourism sector, the Public Investment Fund launched Riyadh Air to help the Kingdom reach tourism targets.

This principle of interconnectedness applies to many intersections within the Vision. The progress made in these various sectors is further enhanced by the direct oversight of the Kingdom's senior leadership over national strategies, which ensures the integration and staves off redundancies.

Political will in the Kingdom also has obvious implications for its foreign relations with other countries. For years, the Kingdom has built bridges of communication with the world under the banner of shared interests and the exchange of values. 2022 concluded with the visit of the Chinese President to Riyadh, and these high-level visits continued into 2023, with the Kingdom hosting several major summits, such as the Saudi-African Summit, the Gulf-ASEAN Summit, the Saudi-Caribbean Summit, the Arab Summit, and the Islamic Summit.

The objectives of these summits vary and include political, economic, and cultural aspects. However, the Kingdom takes the same approach to all countries with shared interests and mutual benefits.

The Kingdom also participated in global summits, notably the G20 Summit in India and the Summit for a New Financing Pact in Paris. The impact of these efforts and international visits became apparent when the Kingdom won the bid to host Expo 2030 by attaining the majority of votes from countries and leveraging its strong global relationships.

Economic capacity

The second factor is economic capacity, which may be represented by the state budget for the next year. The Kingdom has continued to expand spending, setting a budget of over 1.2 trillion Riyals, while making conservative revenue projections. The deficit in the state's general budget did not exceed 2 percent, and the government continues to spend on various sectors without making any significant changes, thereby ensuring the continuity of the state's strategies for these sectors and their alignment with the shifts all around us.

While oil revenues decreased due to OPEC's proactive policy to maintain market stability, non-oil revenues continued to increase, reaching 441 billion riyals - about 37 percent of the state's revenues, up from approximately 32.5 percent in 2018.

The Kingdom's capacity to keep up this spending reflects two things: first, it is confident that its economy is solid, and it can sustain this expansionary spending without increasing public debt relative to GDP or depleting its reserves; second, its commitment to pursuing the programs of Vision 2030 and its reassurance about their positive outcomes for the national economy.

Global changes

The third factor is global changes, which can either pose risks or create opportunities for the Kingdom. These changes could be geopolitical, such as the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, which affects the stability of oil prices, or changes in the course of Israel’s assault on Gaza, which impacts the entire region, or the Houthi attacks disrupting maritime navigation in the Red Sea.

These changes may also be reflected in the global economy. Global economic growth remains slow due to factors such as inflation, the austere monetary policies adopted by central banks to curb it, and the aftermath of the pandemic, which has had an impact on global supply chains.

Saudi Arabia 2024

The forecasts for the Saudi economy in the next year are generally positive. Fitch predicted that the Saudi economy would grow between 2.6 and 3.3 percent, while Moody's expects growth of around 4.6 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its growth projections for the Kingdom to 4 percent in a short period. The preliminary budget statement from the Ministry of Finance has said that real GDP is expected to grow by 4.4 percent.

These forecasts are driven by several factors, including the events of 2023 and the policies being pursued by the Kingdom. Despite reducing its oil production, the Kingdom's revenues increased this year. This increase was driven by rising non-oil revenues, and these revenues are expected to continue to rise next year, as they have over the past five years.

This increase is due to the increasing role of the private sector, which has been invigorated by various government measures and programs tied to Vision 2030. This approach taken by the Saudi government is to mitigate potential risks in global oil markets. That is among the major axes of Vision 2030, which aims to diversify revenue sources in order to ensure sustainable growth and development in the Kingdom.

The developments seen in 2023 reflect a number of projections. For example, it would not be surprising if Saudi Arabia launched several projects related to its hosting of Expo 2030. These could include determining the location of the event, holding activities such as conferences tied to the Expo, like exhibitions, and strategic plans, and possibly establishing a governmental body tasked with overseeing this major event.

Moreover, we can also expect changes in the Saudi sports sector next year. Given that Saudi Arabia began privatizing clubs by transferring the ownership of four clubs to the Public Investment Fund, this trend could continue next year, with more clubs being transferred to major Saudi companies.

An increase in pace at the Ministry of Sports can also be anticipated in preparation for the expected announcement of its successful bid to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup. This preparation might involve submitting a proposal that includes constructing new stadiums and infrastructure to ensure that the Kingdom provides fans with a distinguished experience and that the sports sector meets the high aspirations that have been set for it.

With Saudi Arabia hosting Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup, many infrastructure projects are anticipated. These include ongoing large-scale infrastructure projects in Riyadh, such as King Salman Airport, the Qiddiya Project, King Salman Park, and other significant initiatives. Other cities in the Kingdom that may play an important role, especially in organizing the World Cup, are also expected to see major projects.

Those following the progress being made on Vision 2030 projects can see that it started with several ambitious projects like NEOM, Red Sea, Amaala, and Qiddiya. It began with the launch of numerous projects in Riyadh at the start of Vision 2030, and then we saw other projects in other cities, such as Jeddah Central, Rua Al Medina, and the Sudah and Abha Airport projects.

This might indicate that more projects will be seen in other cities across the Kingdom, whether broad infrastructure projects or sight-specific ones, like agricultural projects suited to cities and their geography and environment. This means that the next year will see the persistence, God willing, of Vision 2030, and the expansion of its initiatives to more Saudi cities that align with their cultural and geographical characteristics.

Flexibility of the Kingdom

The Kingdom has shown itself to be flexible through how it has dealt with economic and political events in recent years. It was not significantly affected by the inflation generated by the pandemic, unlike other countries, and it managed to stave off the negative repercussions of global geopolitical conflicts. Rather, it launched global initiatives aimed at addressing the ramifications of these developments, as it had with its initiatives for global supply chains.

It is not surprising that this approach will continue next year, with precautions being taken to avoid any changes that could negatively impact its economic and strategic interests. The Kingdom will leverage the robustness of its economy and global relationships to find solutions that ensure prosperity, all while maintaining its national project aimed at elevating its strategic and vital sectors.

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Sudan in 25 Years: One War Begets Another

Fleeing the fighting, people are transported by truck from the border town of Renk in South Sudan to a dock to continue their journey to the next destination (DPA)
Fleeing the fighting, people are transported by truck from the border town of Renk in South Sudan to a dock to continue their journey to the next destination (DPA)
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Sudan in 25 Years: One War Begets Another

Fleeing the fighting, people are transported by truck from the border town of Renk in South Sudan to a dock to continue their journey to the next destination (DPA)
Fleeing the fighting, people are transported by truck from the border town of Renk in South Sudan to a dock to continue their journey to the next destination (DPA)

The sound of gunfire, barrel bombs, and stray bullets is nothing new in Sudan. What’s new is that the violence has moved from the outskirts to the capital, Khartoum. This shift forced the government and military to relocate to a temporary capital in Port Sudan, nearly 1,000 kilometers away on the Red Sea coast.
Past conflicts were seen as rebellions against the state, but they stemmed from a deeper struggle: the “center” holds all the power and resources, while the “margins” are left with nothing.
These wars have always been about demands for rights and equality.
Under Islamist President Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s wars shifted from demands for rights to a “religious war” between the Muslim north and the Christian or secular south. This led to South Sudan’s secession and the creation of a new state that joined the United Nations. But what drives the conflicts that continue to devastate Sudan?
Analysts say the root cause is the lack of a national vision and the failure to recognize Sudan’s ethnic and cultural diversity. Without a unified political and economic framework, this diversity has been ignored.
The current war, though fought between two formal armies, stems from the same issues of marginalization and exclusion. These problems sparked Sudan’s first rebellion in 1955, led by the Anya-Nya 1 forces, named after the cobra snake.
The Naivasha Agreement
Sudan’s first civil war ended with the 1972 Addis Ababa Agreement but reignited in 1983 after former President Jaafar Nimeiri imposed Islamic Sharia law. This sparked a rebellion led by John Garang’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).
The conflict escalated into a “jihadist” war as Islamist forces framed it as a battle against “enemies of the faith.” The fighting lasted for years, killing more than two million people.
Unable to secure a military victory, the government signed the Naivasha Agreement in Kenya. The deal granted South Sudan the right to self-determination, with a five-year transitional period to decide between unity or independence.
John Garang briefly became Sudan’s First Vice President during this period but died in a mysterious helicopter crash. His deputy, Salva Kiir, succeeded him and led South Sudan to a 2011 referendum, where the region voted for independence. South Sudan became a new nation, taking a third of Sudan’s land, a quarter of its people, and most of its resources.
Meanwhile, conflict spread to Darfur in 2003, with rebels accusing the government of marginalization. The war turned ethnic when the government armed Arab militias, known as the Janjaweed, to fight African-origin rebel groups. One Janjaweed leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti, later became the head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The Darfur war claimed 300,000 lives. Al-Bashir’s government was accused of war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity, leading to International Criminal Court arrest warrants for Bashir and three senior officials that remain in effect.
Chasing Peace Across Capitals
In May 2006, Sudan’s government signed a peace deal in Abuja with a faction of the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) led by Minni Arko Minnawi. However, the movement split, and another faction, led by Abdel Wahid al-Nur, rejected the deal and continued fighting from Jebel Marra in central Darfur.
Minnawi briefly joined the government as an assistant to President Omar al-Bashir but later rebelled again, claiming he was treated as a "kitchen helper" rather than a serious political partner.
Efforts to negotiate peace moved between capitals. In 2011, some groups signed the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur in Qatar, which promised power and wealth-sharing, but fighting continued.
In 2020, Sudan’s transitional government signed a new peace agreement in Juba with key armed groups, including Minnawi’s faction and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) led by Gibril Ibrahim.
The deal gave Minnawi the role of Darfur governor and Ibrahim the post of finance minister. Despite these accords, true peace remains out of reach.
A New Southern Conflict
War broke out in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, two regions given a right to “popular consultation” under the Naivasha Agreement to decide their future. The SPLM-North, an offshoot of the southern SPLM, took up arms again.
The SPLM-N split into two factions: one led by Malik Agar, now a deputy in Sudan’s Sovereign Council, who signed the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement; the other, led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu, controls Kauda in South Kordofan and continues sporadic fighting.
Eastern Sudan also saw conflict in the 1990s, with groups like the Beja Congress and Free Lions opposing Bashir’s regime. These groups later signed the Asmara Peace Agreement, gaining shares of power and wealth.
In April 2019, months of protests forced the military to oust President Omar al-Bashir. But sit-ins continued, and a violent crackdown killed hundreds, drawing condemnation as a horrific crime against civilians.
Under public pressure, the military signed a constitutional declaration in August 2019, agreeing to share power with civilians. This led to a transitional government with Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, and a Sovereign Council headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his deputy, Hemedti.
War of the Generals
On October 25, 2021, Sudan's army leader overthrew Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s civilian government in a coup. Under pressure from peaceful protests, the general later agreed to a framework agreement with civilian leaders, promising a return to civilian rule and preventing the return of the Islamist regime.
However, supporters of the former regime undermined the deal, causing tensions between the army and the RSF, leading to war.
On April 15, 2023, gunfire broke out in southern Khartoum, marking the start of the ongoing conflict. The RSF accused the army of attacking its camps, while some claim Islamist cells within the army targeted the RSF, forcing it to choose between surrender or war.
Miscalculations
The war was expected to end quickly due to the army’s stronger military. However, the RSF surprised the army by using urban warfare tactics to take control of key military bases and government buildings, including the presidential palace.
The government moved to Port Sudan, while Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan was trapped for over three months before escaping.
The RSF expanded its control over Darfur, western Sudan, and the central Gezira region, holding about 70% of the country. After nearly two years of fighting, the army regained some areas, but the RSF still controls large parts of Sudan and continues fierce fighting, with the war still ongoing.
The Worst Humanitarian Crisis
The war in Sudan has killed tens of thousands and triggered what the UN calls "the worst humanitarian crisis in history." More than 11 million people are displaced within Sudan, while around 3 million have fled to neighboring countries. Over half of Sudan’s population, about 25 million people, face severe food insecurity.
Negotiations have failed, with both sides refusing to return to talks after the Jeddah Humanitarian Declaration collapsed, largely due to the army’s and its supporters' refusal to engage.
Root Causes
Former Sovereign Council member and deputy head of the Democratic Civil Forces Coordination “Tagadum,” Al-Hadi Idris blames the war on Sudan’s failure to agree on a “national development plan” since independence.
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, he says the main reasons for the conflict are the failure to implement fair development, achieve justice, and the lack of resolution on key issues like the role of religion in politics, national identity, and military involvement in government.
Idris argues that addressing these issues is crucial to ending the war for good.
Mohamed Abdel-Hakim, a leader in the Unionist Gathering, believes the wars stem from unequal development and citizenship.
He says resolving issues like marginalization, protecting people’s rights, and replacing oppressive regimes with democratic governance is key to stopping Sudan’s long-running conflicts.
Abdel-Hakim also calls for reforming the military to create a professional, national army focused on protecting the constitution and civilian leadership, with strict oversight to prevent the army from becoming politicized.