Day After Must Start Before a Generation is Lost, Again

Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of the destroyed house of the Manasra family following an Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip, 25 December 2023. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER
Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of the destroyed house of the Manasra family following an Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip, 25 December 2023. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER
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Day After Must Start Before a Generation is Lost, Again

Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of the destroyed house of the Manasra family following an Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip, 25 December 2023. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER
Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of the destroyed house of the Manasra family following an Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip, 25 December 2023. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER

“We believe in taking up arms in self-defense and to deter aggression. But we also believe in peace when it is based on justice and equity, and when it brings an end to conflict. Only within the context of true peace can normal relations flourish between the people of the region and allow the region to pursue development rather than war.”

King Abdullah, then Crown Prince, made this statement to the Arab League in 2002, pushing for adoption of the Saudi initiative which called for normal relations and security for Israel in exchange for withdrawal from occupied territories, recognition of an independent Palestinian state with al-Quds al-Sharif as its capital, and a just resolution for refugees.

In a joint statement issued by HRH Abdullah and President George W. Bush in 2005, the United States specifically thanked Abdullah for his “bold initiative adopted unanimously... that seeks to encourage an Israeli-Palestinian and Israel-Arab peace.” They also said that “the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia desire a just, negotiated settlement wherein two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, live side by side in peace and security.”

A year prior to Abdullah’s Saudi Initiative, President Clinton laid out parameters on territory, security, Jerusalem, and refugees, in a January 2001 speech. He said then “in the resolution of remaining differences, whether they come today or after several years of heartbreak and bloodshed, the fundamental, painful, but necessary choices will almost certainly remain the same....”

The second intifada was in early days when Clinton spoke. It contributed to Israeli moves toward unilateral separation: the pullout and removal of settlers from Gaza in 2005, construction of the West Bank security barrier. Several peace initiatives were launched in subsequent years, though none were executed with a political strategy able to garner needed support or backing from all parties. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, contained measures between Israel and other regional actors that had previously been proposed in the context of prior peace efforts, but were implemented with the scantest gains for Palestinians.

A generation later, the latest round of warfare, unleashed by the Oct. 7 barbaric ISIS-like Hamas attack on Israelis, seems all enveloping – so cacophonous, so blindingly devastating to so many that those understandably consumed in the immediate, lack the senses to see to a better horizon.

Yet read President’s Clinton address, or King Abdullah’s speech in Beirut, or the joint statement by President Bush and Abdullah. Their words – remarkably consistent in hindsight review -- are glaringly applicable now. If ever the world needed a compelling case for the disaster of a “river to the sea” one state reality, whether extremist Palestinian or Israeli version, we are witnessing it play out in real time.

The vision of “states side by side” provide the only hope for sustainable peace and security. Only such a two-state solution will serve the interests not only of Palestinians and Israelis, but also other countries in the region and the world. And the United States is indispensable to help lead toward this end. For starters, it has a rich bipartisan presidential history of commitment and a network of constructive relationships that China and Russia lack.

How do we get there from here? These five steps would be a start.

- The Kingdom should use willingness to play an active role in the peace process as a gateway, and a guiding framework.

- Soonest, before the Israeli offensive against Hamas military leadership concludes, Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank need to see and feel the route to a better tomorrow. That requires an interim architecture for governance and security that is constructed as a transition vehicle that can drive toward a sustainable Palestinian state. Under such architecture, Palestinians should not fear publicly critiquing those in power, have readily available water and electricity and food; and see soonest rebuilding of homes, schools, hospitals, and good jobs. Those in the West Bank also should see Israeli settlers prosecuted by Israeli authorities in real time for vigilante behavior.

- Egyptian-Jordanian-Gulf alliance must steer. The Palestinian Authority in current form and structure should be a front seat passenger until it is able to take the wheel. That alliance would call upon the United Nations to exercise (and rebuild) its existing civilian infrastructure and would work with others to ensure sufficient security to protect Palestinians’ daily lives and to halt reemerging threats that Hamas might pose internally, or to Israel.

- Israel needs to govern from the political center, where the majority of Israelis reside. Israelis expect a thorough investigation of leadership failures that may have contributed to its lack of preparation on October 7; this likely will result in a new prime minister, and a more centrist governing coalition. During this period, Israelis will need to reclaim confidence in the state’s ability to provide for their safety and security, even as they re-explore the connection between being a strong democracy and providing a sustainable homeland for the Jewish people.

- The regional and international community, including Israel, will need to offer significant support for these efforts.

Neither Palestinians nor Israelis should be expected to be able to flip a switch and suddenly become clear sighted on two states as the solution both peoples need, given the generation plus that have been stymied by politics and politicians lacking that focus. Regional leaders, who have or may sign the Abraham Accords, in partnership with the United States and other supportive outside parties, can play a major role in establishing that clarity, and in the credibility of a pathway that leads to two states, and a more stable, secure, sustainable, and democratic future.

 

•    Former US National Security Official and Former Deputy Middle East Peace Envoy 



    Iraq's Political Future in Limbo as Factions Vie for Power

    FILED - 02 November 2025, Iraq, Najaf: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani delivers a speech during a campaign rally of his Reconstruction and Development Coalition in Najaf, ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections, scheduled to be held on 11 November 2025. Photo: Ameer Al-Mohammedawi/dpa
    FILED - 02 November 2025, Iraq, Najaf: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani delivers a speech during a campaign rally of his Reconstruction and Development Coalition in Najaf, ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections, scheduled to be held on 11 November 2025. Photo: Ameer Al-Mohammedawi/dpa
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    Iraq's Political Future in Limbo as Factions Vie for Power

    FILED - 02 November 2025, Iraq, Najaf: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani delivers a speech during a campaign rally of his Reconstruction and Development Coalition in Najaf, ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections, scheduled to be held on 11 November 2025. Photo: Ameer Al-Mohammedawi/dpa
    FILED - 02 November 2025, Iraq, Najaf: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani delivers a speech during a campaign rally of his Reconstruction and Development Coalition in Najaf, ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections, scheduled to be held on 11 November 2025. Photo: Ameer Al-Mohammedawi/dpa

    Political factions in Iraq have been maneuvering since the parliamentary election more than a month ago to form alliances that will shape the next government.

    The November election didn't produce a bloc with a decisive majority, opening the door to a prolonged period of negotiations, said The Associated Press.

    The government that eventually emerges will be inheriting a security situation that has stabilized in recent years, but it will also face a fragmented parliament, growing political influence by armed factions, a fragile economy, and often conflicting international and regional pressures, including the future of Iran-backed armed groups.

    Uncertain prospects

    Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's party took the largest number of seats in the election. Al-Sudani positioned himself in his first term as a pragmatist focused on improving public services and managed to keep Iraq on the sidelines of regional conflicts.

    While his party is nominally part of the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Iran-backed Shiite parties that became the largest parliamentary bloc, observers say it’s unlikely that the Coordination Framework will support al-Sudani’s reelection bid.

    “The choice for prime minister has to be someone the Framework believes they can control and doesn't have his own political ambitions,” said Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst and fellow at The Century Foundation think tank.

    Al-Sudani came to power in 2022 with the backing of the Framework, but Jiyad said that he believes now the coalition “will not give al-Sudani a second term as he has become a powerful competitor.”

    The only Iraqi prime minister to serve a second term since 2003 was Nouri al-Maliki, first elected in 2006. His bid for a third term failed after being criticized for monopolizing power and alienating Sunnis and Kurds.

    Jiyad said that the Coordination Framework drew a lesson from Maliki “that an ambitious prime minister will seek to consolidate power at the expense of others.”

    He said that the figure selected as Iraq's prime minister must generally be seen as acceptable to Iran and the United States — two countries with huge influence over Iraq — and to Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ali al-Sistani.

    Al-Sudani in a bind

    In the election, Shiite alliances and lists — dominated by the Coordination Framework parties — secured 187 seats, Sunni groups 77 seats, Kurdish groups 56 seats, in addition to nine seats reserved for members of minority groups.

    The Reconstruction and Development Coalition, led by al-Sudani, dominated in Baghdad, and in several other provinces, winning 46 seats.

    Al-Sudani's results, while strong, don't allow him to form a government without the support of a coalition, forcing him to align the Coordination Framework to preserve his political prospects.

    Some saw this dynamic at play earlier this month when al-Sudani's government retracted a terror designation that Iraq had imposed on the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group and Yemen’s Houthis— Iran-aligned groups that are allied with Iraqi armed factions — just weeks after imposing the measure, saying it was a mistake.

    The Coalition Framework saw its hand strengthened by the absence from the election of the powerful Sadrist movement led by Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr, which has been boycotting the political system since being unable to form a government after winning the most seats in the 2021 election.

    Hamed Al-Sayed, a political activist and official with the National Line Movement, an independent party that boycotted the election, said that Sadr’s absence had a “central impact.”

    “It reduced participation in areas that were traditionally within his sphere of influence, such as Baghdad and the southern governorates, leaving an electoral vacuum that was exploited by rival militia groups,” he said, referring to several parties within the Coordination Framework that also have armed wings.

    Groups with affiliated armed wings won more than 100 parliamentary seats, the largest showing since 2003.

    Other political actors

    Sunni forces, meanwhile, sought to reorganize under a new coalition called the National Political Council, aiming to regain influence lost since the 2018 and 2021 elections.

    The Kurdish political scene remained dominated by the traditional split between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan parties, with ongoing negotiations between the two over the presidency.

    By convention, Iraq’s president is always a Kurd, while the more powerful prime minister is Shiite and the parliamentary speaker Sunni.

    Parliament is required to elect a speaker within 15 days of the Federal Supreme Court’s ratification of the election result, which occurred on Dec. 14.

    The parliament should elect a president within 30 days of its first session, and the prime minister should be appointed within 15 days of the president’s election, with 30 days allotted to form the new government.

    Washington steps in

    The incoming government will face major economic and political challenges.

    They include a high level of public debt — more than 90 trillion Iraqi dinars ($69 billion) — and a state budget that remains reliant on oil for about 90% of revenues, despite attempts to diversify, as well as entrenched corruption.

    But perhaps the most delicate question will be the future of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of militias that formed to fight the ISIS group as it rampaged across Iraq more than a decade ago.

    It was formally placed under the control of the Iraqi military in 2016 but in practice still operates with significant autonomy. After the Hamas-led attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 sparked the devastating war in Gaza, some armed groups within the PMF launched attacks on US bases in the region in retaliation for Washington’s backing of Israel.

    The US has been pushing for Iraq to disarm Iran-backed groups — a difficult proposition, given the political power that many of them hold and Iran’s likely opposition to such a step.

    Two senior Iraqi political officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to comment publicly, said that the United States had warned against selecting any candidate for prime minister who controls an armed faction and also cautioned against letting figures associated with militias control key ministries or hold significant security posts.

    “The biggest issue will be how to deal with the pro-Iran parties with armed wings, particularly those... which have been designated by the United States as terrorist entities,” Jiyad said.


    What Egypt’s Red Lines Mean for Sudan’s War

    Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi holds talks with Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Cairo on Thursday (Egyptian Presidency)
    Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi holds talks with Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Cairo on Thursday (Egyptian Presidency)
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    What Egypt’s Red Lines Mean for Sudan’s War

    Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi holds talks with Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Cairo on Thursday (Egyptian Presidency)
    Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi holds talks with Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Cairo on Thursday (Egyptian Presidency)

    In unusually blunt language, and following a visit by Sudan’s Sovereignty Council Chairman and army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to Cairo, the Egyptian presidency issued a statement on the war in Sudan outlining three points it described as red lines.

    It said Egypt would not allow any of them to be crossed or compromised, as they directly affect Egypt’s national security, which it said is inseparable from Sudan’s national security.

    The reference to activating the joint defense agreement between the two countries was seen as a signal that Egypt could bring its military, political, and diplomatic weight to bear in support of the Sudanese army.

    Joint defense agreement

    In March 2021, Egypt signed a military cooperation agreement with Sudan that covers training, border security, and the confrontation of shared threats. That agreement followed a joint defense pact signed in 1976 during the presidencies of Sudan’s Gaafar Nimeiry and Egypt’s Anwar Sadat.

    Articles One and Two of the pact stipulate that any attack on one party is considered an attack on the other, and require immediate consultation, including the use of armed force to repel aggression. The agreement also commits both sides to coordinating their defense and military policies on matters related to their national security.

    After the fall of Nimeiry’s regime in the 1985 popular uprising, then Prime Minister Sadiq al-Mahdi informed the Egyptian leadership of his desire to cancel the joint defense agreement. Instead, the two sides signed what became known as the Brotherhood Charter in 1987. While it did not explicitly cancel the 1976 agreement, its mechanisms have not been discussed or activated since then.

    Regional and international messages

    Sudanese journalist Osman Mirghani, editor-in-chief of Al-Tayar newspaper, said the Egyptian statements amounted to regional and international messages linked to recent developments and what he described as serious security threats facing Sudan.

    He pointed to the expansion of the Rapid Support Forces in the Darfur and Kordofan regions in a way that threatens shared Sudanese and Egyptian national security, warning of risks of geographic fragmentation that could endanger Sudan’s unity.

    Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Mirghani said Egypt was, for the first time, using direct and tough language and signaling the possibility of intervention under international law in Sudan’s conflict. He said this reflected the level of Egyptian concern over the situation in Sudan.

    Mirghani added that the reference to red lines was a message directed at all parties, noting that there are many influential players in Sudan.

    The red lines

    The first red line cited by Cairo was the preservation of Sudan’s unity and territorial integrity, preventing any tampering with its resources or those of the Sudanese people, and rejecting the secession of any part of the country. Egypt reiterated its categorical refusal to the establishment or recognition of any parallel entities, saying such moves would undermine Sudan’s unity and territorial integrity.

    The statement also stressed the need to preserve Sudanese state institutions and prevent any harm to them. Egypt affirmed its full right to take all necessary measures permitted under international law, including activating the joint defense agreement between the two brotherly countries, to ensure these red lines are not crossed.

    Timing of the visit

    Former Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Youssef noted the timing of Burhan’s visit to Cairo, stating that it occurred after his trip to Saudi Arabia earlier this week and following a visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the United States.

    Youssef said the trip was part of efforts to end the war in Sudan through the Quartet mechanism, which includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and the United States.

    Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Youssef said Burhan briefed Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the outcomes of his Saudi visit and the latest developments in Sudan.

    He stated that the visit did not follow the usual ceremonial protocol and was a result of developments in the war, noting that Egypt’s security is linked to Sudan’s security. He added that Egypt is part of the Quartet, which seeks to end a war that is approaching its third year.

    Military implications

    Sudanese military expert Al-Muatasim Abdel Qader said activating the joint agreement would imply Egyptian intervention in various forms, including supplying weapons and ammunition or direct military involvement.

    He said the provisions of the agreement obligate each army to defend the other, adding that the red lines outlined by the Egyptian presidency represented a significant step and carried major implications for the Sudanese state.

    In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Abdel Qader described mutual protection between the two countries as a historically rooted matter, dating back to wars Egypt fought in the last century in which Sudanese armed forces took part.

    Rapid Support Forces response

    Basha Tabiq, an adviser to the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, said in posts on X that Egypt’s position amounted to blatant interference, bias toward one party, and a colonial mindset that views Sudan as a backyard.

    Another source aligned with the RSF said accusations against Egypt of backing the Sudanese army have persisted since the early days of the war. The source pointed to the presence of Egyptian forces at Merowe air base in northern Sudan at the start of the conflict, when several Egyptian soldiers and officers were captured before later being handed over to Cairo.

    The source also cited accusations by RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, who said in October 2024 that the Egyptian army had carried out air strikes against his forces and supplied the Sudanese army with drones and training.

    He said Hemedti renewed those accusations last June, alleging that Cairo supported the Sudanese army with aircraft flown by Egyptian pilots that bombed areas under his forces’ control, and supplied weapons and aviation fuel. Hemedti described this as a blatant aggression against the Sudanese people.

    The source, who requested anonymity, said Egypt has been intervening in the war from the outset and that activating the joint defense agreement would merely formalize an existing reality.

    No time to spare

    Sudanese ambassador Al-Sadiq al-Maqli said Egypt is working with Saudi Arabia and the international Quartet, in coordination with the United States, to give fresh momentum to efforts on Sudan.

    He said Washington is currently using soft power rather than force, which he described as an option deferred until shuttle diplomacy by US President’s senior adviser Massad Boulos is exhausted.

    Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Maqli said the United States fully understands the influence of Saudi Arabia and Egypt and their ability to persuade and soften the stance of Sudan’s government, which has rejected the latest US initiative.

    He said Burhan currently has no time to spare, as what is unfolding in Sudan represents the world’s worst humanitarian disaster, according to the international community.

    Maqli noted that Egypt, represented by Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, has been almost fully dedicated to making the Quartet mechanism succeed, given that the continuation of the current situation in Sudan poses a threat to Egypt’s national security.

    He described Burhan’s visits to Riyadh and Cairo as short but necessary steps toward accepting the Quartet initiative, saying the Saudi visit marked a qualitative shift in the Sudanese government’s official position.

    He added that Sudan’s foreign ministry later expressed Port Sudan’s readiness to cooperate with President Donald Trump, his secretary of state, and Boulos in efforts to achieve peace in Sudan, predicting imminent developments that could lead to a major breakthrough in the crisis.


    Iraq Negotiates New Coalition Under US Pressure

    Election workers count ballots as they close a polling station, during the parliamentary elections in Baghdad, Iraq, Nov. 11, 2025. (AP)
    Election workers count ballots as they close a polling station, during the parliamentary elections in Baghdad, Iraq, Nov. 11, 2025. (AP)
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    Iraq Negotiates New Coalition Under US Pressure

    Election workers count ballots as they close a polling station, during the parliamentary elections in Baghdad, Iraq, Nov. 11, 2025. (AP)
    Election workers count ballots as they close a polling station, during the parliamentary elections in Baghdad, Iraq, Nov. 11, 2025. (AP)

    More than a month after Iraq's parliamentary elections, the country's top leaders remain locked in talks to form a government while facing pressure from Washington to exclude Tehran-backed armed groups.

    Amid seismic changes in the Middle East, where new alliances are forming and old powers waning, Iraqi leaders face a daunting task: navigating relations with US-blacklisted pro-Iranian factions.

    The US has held significant sway over Iraqi politics since leading the 2003 invasion that ousted long-time ruler Saddam Hussein.

    But another specter also haunts Iraq's halls of power: Washington's arch-foe, Iran.

    Iraq has long been caught between the two, with successive governments negotiating a delicate balance.

    Now, after November's election, Washington has demanded the eventual government must exclude Iran-backed armed groups and instead move to dismantle them, Iraqi officials and diplomats told AFP.

    A State Department spokesperson, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "Iraqi leaders well know what is and is not compatible with a strong US-Iraq partnership".

    Washington, the spokesperson said, "will continue to speak plainly to the urgency of dismantling Iran-backed militias".

    But some of these groups have increased their presence in the new chamber and have joined the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Shiite parties with varying ties to Iran and which holds the majority.

    For weeks, the Coordination Framework has been embroiled in talks to nominate the next prime minister.

    "The US has put conditions that armed factions should not be part of the new government," a senior Iraqi official said. The factions must disarm and "sever ties with Iran's Revolutionary Guard," he added.

    In recent tweets, the US special envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya said that Iraqi leaders are at a "crossroads".

    Their decision "will send a clear and unmistakable signal to the United States... that Iraq is ready to claim its rightful place as a stable and respected nation in the new Middle East.

    "The alternative is equally clear: economic deterioration, political confusion, and international isolation," Savaya said.

    The US has blacklisted as "terrorist organizations" several armed groups from within the pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Forces, a former paramilitary alliance now integrated into the armed forces.

    They are also part of the Iran-backed so-called "Axis of Resistance" and have called for the withdrawal of US troops -- deployed in Iraq as part of an anti-ISIS coalition -- and launched attacks against them.

    Most of these groups hold seats in parliament and have seen their political and financial clout increase.

    The Asaib Ahl al-Haq faction, led by Qais al-Khazali, who is a key figure in the Coordination Framework, won 27 seats in the latest election, making it harder to exclude it from the government.

    A potential compromise is to deny it a key portfolio, as in the current government.

    "The US has turned a blind eye before, so they might after all engage with the government as a whole but not with ministries held by armed groups," a former Iraqi official said.

    Other blacklisted groups are:

    + Kataeb Hezbollah, one of the most powerful armed groups, supports a parliamentary bloc (six seats).

    + Kataeb Sayyid al-Shuhada, Kataeb Imam Ali and Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya.

    + The al-Nujaba movement is the only group that has steered clear of elections.

    Iraq has its economic growth to worry about.

    After decades of turmoil, it has only begun to regain a sense of normalcy in recent years.

    Washington has already imposed sanctions on several Iraqi entities and banks, accusing them of helping Tehran evade sanctions.

    But Iraqi leaders hope for greater foreign investments and support partnerships with US companies.

    The most striking endorsement came from Khazali, an opponent of the US military presence who now argues that it would be in Baghdad's interest for major US companies to invest.

    Since the Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza began in October 2023, Iraq has remained relatively unscathed by the turmoil engulfing the Middle East.

    Iraqi armed groups did launch attacks on US troops and largely unsuccessful ones on Israel. Washington responded with heavy strikes, and the attacks have long since halted.

    Iraq remained the only close regional ally of Iran to stay out of Israel's crosshairs.

    So far, the US has acted as a buffer, helping to prevent an Israeli attack, but Iraqis have been warned of strikes against the armed groups, multiple sources said.

    But as the presence of American forces dwindles, fears are growing.