Day After Must Start Before a Generation is Lost, Again

Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of the destroyed house of the Manasra family following an Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip, 25 December 2023. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER
Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of the destroyed house of the Manasra family following an Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip, 25 December 2023. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER
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Day After Must Start Before a Generation is Lost, Again

Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of the destroyed house of the Manasra family following an Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip, 25 December 2023. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER
Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of the destroyed house of the Manasra family following an Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip, 25 December 2023. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER

“We believe in taking up arms in self-defense and to deter aggression. But we also believe in peace when it is based on justice and equity, and when it brings an end to conflict. Only within the context of true peace can normal relations flourish between the people of the region and allow the region to pursue development rather than war.”

King Abdullah, then Crown Prince, made this statement to the Arab League in 2002, pushing for adoption of the Saudi initiative which called for normal relations and security for Israel in exchange for withdrawal from occupied territories, recognition of an independent Palestinian state with al-Quds al-Sharif as its capital, and a just resolution for refugees.

In a joint statement issued by HRH Abdullah and President George W. Bush in 2005, the United States specifically thanked Abdullah for his “bold initiative adopted unanimously... that seeks to encourage an Israeli-Palestinian and Israel-Arab peace.” They also said that “the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia desire a just, negotiated settlement wherein two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, live side by side in peace and security.”

A year prior to Abdullah’s Saudi Initiative, President Clinton laid out parameters on territory, security, Jerusalem, and refugees, in a January 2001 speech. He said then “in the resolution of remaining differences, whether they come today or after several years of heartbreak and bloodshed, the fundamental, painful, but necessary choices will almost certainly remain the same....”

The second intifada was in early days when Clinton spoke. It contributed to Israeli moves toward unilateral separation: the pullout and removal of settlers from Gaza in 2005, construction of the West Bank security barrier. Several peace initiatives were launched in subsequent years, though none were executed with a political strategy able to garner needed support or backing from all parties. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, contained measures between Israel and other regional actors that had previously been proposed in the context of prior peace efforts, but were implemented with the scantest gains for Palestinians.

A generation later, the latest round of warfare, unleashed by the Oct. 7 barbaric ISIS-like Hamas attack on Israelis, seems all enveloping – so cacophonous, so blindingly devastating to so many that those understandably consumed in the immediate, lack the senses to see to a better horizon.

Yet read President’s Clinton address, or King Abdullah’s speech in Beirut, or the joint statement by President Bush and Abdullah. Their words – remarkably consistent in hindsight review -- are glaringly applicable now. If ever the world needed a compelling case for the disaster of a “river to the sea” one state reality, whether extremist Palestinian or Israeli version, we are witnessing it play out in real time.

The vision of “states side by side” provide the only hope for sustainable peace and security. Only such a two-state solution will serve the interests not only of Palestinians and Israelis, but also other countries in the region and the world. And the United States is indispensable to help lead toward this end. For starters, it has a rich bipartisan presidential history of commitment and a network of constructive relationships that China and Russia lack.

How do we get there from here? These five steps would be a start.

- The Kingdom should use willingness to play an active role in the peace process as a gateway, and a guiding framework.

- Soonest, before the Israeli offensive against Hamas military leadership concludes, Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank need to see and feel the route to a better tomorrow. That requires an interim architecture for governance and security that is constructed as a transition vehicle that can drive toward a sustainable Palestinian state. Under such architecture, Palestinians should not fear publicly critiquing those in power, have readily available water and electricity and food; and see soonest rebuilding of homes, schools, hospitals, and good jobs. Those in the West Bank also should see Israeli settlers prosecuted by Israeli authorities in real time for vigilante behavior.

- Egyptian-Jordanian-Gulf alliance must steer. The Palestinian Authority in current form and structure should be a front seat passenger until it is able to take the wheel. That alliance would call upon the United Nations to exercise (and rebuild) its existing civilian infrastructure and would work with others to ensure sufficient security to protect Palestinians’ daily lives and to halt reemerging threats that Hamas might pose internally, or to Israel.

- Israel needs to govern from the political center, where the majority of Israelis reside. Israelis expect a thorough investigation of leadership failures that may have contributed to its lack of preparation on October 7; this likely will result in a new prime minister, and a more centrist governing coalition. During this period, Israelis will need to reclaim confidence in the state’s ability to provide for their safety and security, even as they re-explore the connection between being a strong democracy and providing a sustainable homeland for the Jewish people.

- The regional and international community, including Israel, will need to offer significant support for these efforts.

Neither Palestinians nor Israelis should be expected to be able to flip a switch and suddenly become clear sighted on two states as the solution both peoples need, given the generation plus that have been stymied by politics and politicians lacking that focus. Regional leaders, who have or may sign the Abraham Accords, in partnership with the United States and other supportive outside parties, can play a major role in establishing that clarity, and in the credibility of a pathway that leads to two states, and a more stable, secure, sustainable, and democratic future.

 

•    Former US National Security Official and Former Deputy Middle East Peace Envoy 



    A Week Into the Fragile Israel-Iran Peace Agreement, Here's What We Still Don't Know

    People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
    People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
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    A Week Into the Fragile Israel-Iran Peace Agreement, Here's What We Still Don't Know

    People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
    People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

    It's been a week since the United States pressed Israel and Iran into a truce, ending a bloody, 12-day conflict that had set the Middle East and globe on edge.

    The fragile peace, brokered by the US the day after it dropped 30,000-pound "bunker-busting" bombs on three of Iran's key nuclear sites, is holding. But much remains unsettled, The Associated Press reported.

    How badly Iran’s nuclear program was set back remains murky. The prospects of renewed US-Iran peace talks are up in the air. And whether US President Donald Trump can leverage the moment to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's government and Hamas focused on a ceasefire and hostage deal that brings about an end to the 20-month war in Gaza remains an open question.

    Here is a look at what we still don't know:

    How far Iran's nuclear program has been set back Trump says three targets hit by American strikes were “obliterated.” His defense secretary said they were “destroyed.”

    A preliminary report issued by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, meanwhile, said the strikes did significant damage to the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan sites, but did not totally destroy the facilities.

    Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that the three Iranian sites with “capabilities in terms of treatment, conversion and enrichment of uranium have been destroyed to an important degree.” But, he added, “some is still standing” and that because capabilities remain, “if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again.” He said assessing the full damage comes down to Iran allowing inspectors access.

    What future US-Iran relations might look like

    After the ceasefire deal came together, Trump spoke of potentially easing decades of biting sanctions on Tehran and predicted that Iran could become a “great trading nation” if it pulled back once-and-for-all from its nuclear program.

    The talk of harmony didn't last long.

    Ali Khamenei, in his first public appearance after the ceasefire was announced, claimed Tehran had delivered a “slap to America’s face." Trump responded by suggesting the supreme leader own up to the fact Iran “got beat to hell. The president also said he was backing off reviewing any immediate sanction relief, because of Khamenei's heated comments.

    White House officials say the US and Iran are already in early discussions about resuming negotiations that had ended after Israel began launching strikes. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says there's no agreement in place to restart talks.

    It's unclear if Iran's leadership is ready to come to the table so soon after the fighting has ended — especially if Trump holds to the position that Iran must give up nuclear enrichment for even civilian use. And Trump has offered conflicting statements about his commitment to talks. “We may sign an agreement,” he said Wednesday at a NATO summit press conference. He added, “I don’t think it’s that necessary.”

    What role Iran's supreme leader will play

    Khamenei's age and recent diminished appearance have raised questions about the scope of his involvement in US-Iran relations and Iran's response to both American and Israeli strikes. But despite having spent the last few weeks in a bunker as threats to his life escalated, there is little indication that Khamenei does not still reign supreme over the country's massive military and governmental operations.

    Khamenei has ruled three times longer than his predecessor, the late Ruhollah Khomeini, and has shaped life for the country's more than 90 million people perhaps even more dramatically.

    He entrenched the system of rule by the “mullahs,” or Shiite Muslim clerics. That secured his place in the eyes of hard-liners as the unquestionable authority, below only that of God. At the same time, Khamenei built the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the dominant force in Iran’s military and internal politics.

    How Iran might strike back Iran's retaliatory missile attacks on a US base in Qatar following the American bombardment were sloughed off by the White House as a half-hearted, face-saving measure. The US was forewarned and the salvos were easily fended off.

    Yet Iran remains a persistent threat, particularly via cyberwarfare. Hackers backing Tehran have already targeted US banks, defense contractors and oil industry companies — but so far have not caused widespread disruptions to critical infrastructure or the economy.

    The US Department of Homeland Security last week issued a public bulletin warning of increased Iranian cyber threats. And the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, is urging organizations that operate critical infrastructure like water systems, pipelines or power plants to stay vigilant.

    Whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold It remains a fragile peace.

    Immediately following the US strikes, Trump got on the phone with Netanyahu and told the Israeli leader not to expect further US offensive military action, according to a senior White House official who was not authorized to comment publicly about the sensitive diplomatic talks.

    But even as he agreed to deal, Netanyahu made clear that Israel will strike again “if anyone in Iran tries to revive this project.”

    The ceasefire deal came without any agreement from Tehran on dismantling its nuclear program. Khamenei claims the attacks “did nothing significant” to Iran's nuclear facilities.

    Trump expressed confidence that Iran, at the moment, has no interest in getting its nuclear program back up. “The last thing they’re thinking about right now is enriched uranium,” Trump said.

    Still, Trump says he expects Iran to open itself to international inspection to verify that it doesn’t restart its nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, or some other organization "that we respect, including ourselves.”

    Whether Trump can now press Netanyahu on Gaza

    The president took a big gamble with his decision to order strikes on Iran's nuclear fortress.

    As a candidate, he promised to quickly end Russia's brutal war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, but has failed to find a resolution to either. He also vowed to keep the US military out of foreign conflicts.

    But after helping Israel with US strikes on Iran, Trump — in conversations with Netanyahu and other world leaders in recent days — has made clear he wants a deal completed soon, according to two people familiar with the private discussions and were not authorized to comment publicly.

    On Friday, Trump told reporters, “We think within the next week we’re going to get a ceasefire.”

    Trump didn't offer any further explanation for his optimism. But Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is expected to be in Washington this week for talks on a Gaza ceasefire, Iran and other matters, according to an official familiar with the matter. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.