Day After Must Start Before a Generation is Lost, Again

Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of the destroyed house of the Manasra family following an Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip, 25 December 2023. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER
Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of the destroyed house of the Manasra family following an Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip, 25 December 2023. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER
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Day After Must Start Before a Generation is Lost, Again

Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of the destroyed house of the Manasra family following an Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip, 25 December 2023. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER
Palestinians search for bodies and survivors in the rubble of the destroyed house of the Manasra family following an Israeli air strike in the southern Gaza Strip, 25 December 2023. EPA/MOHAMMED SABER

“We believe in taking up arms in self-defense and to deter aggression. But we also believe in peace when it is based on justice and equity, and when it brings an end to conflict. Only within the context of true peace can normal relations flourish between the people of the region and allow the region to pursue development rather than war.”

King Abdullah, then Crown Prince, made this statement to the Arab League in 2002, pushing for adoption of the Saudi initiative which called for normal relations and security for Israel in exchange for withdrawal from occupied territories, recognition of an independent Palestinian state with al-Quds al-Sharif as its capital, and a just resolution for refugees.

In a joint statement issued by HRH Abdullah and President George W. Bush in 2005, the United States specifically thanked Abdullah for his “bold initiative adopted unanimously... that seeks to encourage an Israeli-Palestinian and Israel-Arab peace.” They also said that “the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia desire a just, negotiated settlement wherein two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, live side by side in peace and security.”

A year prior to Abdullah’s Saudi Initiative, President Clinton laid out parameters on territory, security, Jerusalem, and refugees, in a January 2001 speech. He said then “in the resolution of remaining differences, whether they come today or after several years of heartbreak and bloodshed, the fundamental, painful, but necessary choices will almost certainly remain the same....”

The second intifada was in early days when Clinton spoke. It contributed to Israeli moves toward unilateral separation: the pullout and removal of settlers from Gaza in 2005, construction of the West Bank security barrier. Several peace initiatives were launched in subsequent years, though none were executed with a political strategy able to garner needed support or backing from all parties. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, contained measures between Israel and other regional actors that had previously been proposed in the context of prior peace efforts, but were implemented with the scantest gains for Palestinians.

A generation later, the latest round of warfare, unleashed by the Oct. 7 barbaric ISIS-like Hamas attack on Israelis, seems all enveloping – so cacophonous, so blindingly devastating to so many that those understandably consumed in the immediate, lack the senses to see to a better horizon.

Yet read President’s Clinton address, or King Abdullah’s speech in Beirut, or the joint statement by President Bush and Abdullah. Their words – remarkably consistent in hindsight review -- are glaringly applicable now. If ever the world needed a compelling case for the disaster of a “river to the sea” one state reality, whether extremist Palestinian or Israeli version, we are witnessing it play out in real time.

The vision of “states side by side” provide the only hope for sustainable peace and security. Only such a two-state solution will serve the interests not only of Palestinians and Israelis, but also other countries in the region and the world. And the United States is indispensable to help lead toward this end. For starters, it has a rich bipartisan presidential history of commitment and a network of constructive relationships that China and Russia lack.

How do we get there from here? These five steps would be a start.

- The Kingdom should use willingness to play an active role in the peace process as a gateway, and a guiding framework.

- Soonest, before the Israeli offensive against Hamas military leadership concludes, Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank need to see and feel the route to a better tomorrow. That requires an interim architecture for governance and security that is constructed as a transition vehicle that can drive toward a sustainable Palestinian state. Under such architecture, Palestinians should not fear publicly critiquing those in power, have readily available water and electricity and food; and see soonest rebuilding of homes, schools, hospitals, and good jobs. Those in the West Bank also should see Israeli settlers prosecuted by Israeli authorities in real time for vigilante behavior.

- Egyptian-Jordanian-Gulf alliance must steer. The Palestinian Authority in current form and structure should be a front seat passenger until it is able to take the wheel. That alliance would call upon the United Nations to exercise (and rebuild) its existing civilian infrastructure and would work with others to ensure sufficient security to protect Palestinians’ daily lives and to halt reemerging threats that Hamas might pose internally, or to Israel.

- Israel needs to govern from the political center, where the majority of Israelis reside. Israelis expect a thorough investigation of leadership failures that may have contributed to its lack of preparation on October 7; this likely will result in a new prime minister, and a more centrist governing coalition. During this period, Israelis will need to reclaim confidence in the state’s ability to provide for their safety and security, even as they re-explore the connection between being a strong democracy and providing a sustainable homeland for the Jewish people.

- The regional and international community, including Israel, will need to offer significant support for these efforts.

Neither Palestinians nor Israelis should be expected to be able to flip a switch and suddenly become clear sighted on two states as the solution both peoples need, given the generation plus that have been stymied by politics and politicians lacking that focus. Regional leaders, who have or may sign the Abraham Accords, in partnership with the United States and other supportive outside parties, can play a major role in establishing that clarity, and in the credibility of a pathway that leads to two states, and a more stable, secure, sustainable, and democratic future.

 

•    Former US National Security Official and Former Deputy Middle East Peace Envoy 



    Can Lebanon Disarm Hezbollah?

    Motorists wave Hezbollah flags as they parade in Beirut's southern suburbs on Nov. 27, 2024. (AFP/Getty Images)
    Motorists wave Hezbollah flags as they parade in Beirut's southern suburbs on Nov. 27, 2024. (AFP/Getty Images)
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    Can Lebanon Disarm Hezbollah?

    Motorists wave Hezbollah flags as they parade in Beirut's southern suburbs on Nov. 27, 2024. (AFP/Getty Images)
    Motorists wave Hezbollah flags as they parade in Beirut's southern suburbs on Nov. 27, 2024. (AFP/Getty Images)

    Lebanon's cabinet has told the army to draw up a plan to establish a state monopoly on arms in a challenge to the Iran-backed Shiite group Hezbollah, which rejects calls to disarm.

    WHY IS THERE A PUSH TO DISARM HEZBOLLAH NOW?

    Israel pummeled Hezbollah last year in a war sparked by the conflict in Gaza, killing many of its top brass and 5,000 of its fighters before a November truce brokered by the United States.

    That deal committed Lebanon to restricting arms to six specific state security forces, and further stipulated that it should confiscate unauthorized weapons and prevent rearmament by non-state groups.

    In the months since, a new Lebanese government vowed to confine arms across the country to state control, Hezbollah's main arms route was cut when its Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad was ousted in December and Israel attacked its sponsor Iran in June.

    The government is facing pressure from Washington and Hezbollah's domestic rivals to act swiftly amid fears that Israel could intensify air strikes on Lebanon.

    Despite November's ceasefire, Israel has continued to carry out strikes on what it says are Hezbollah arms depots and fighters, mostly in southern Lebanon.

    HOW IS THE UNITED STATES INVOLVED?

    In June, US envoy Thomas Barrack proposed a roadmap to Lebanese officials to fully disarm Hezbollah in exchange for Israel halting its strikes on Lebanon and withdrawing its troops from five points they still occupy in southern Lebanon.

    But Hezbollah and its main Shiite ally the Amal Movement, led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, say the sequencing should be reversed, with Israel withdrawing and halting strikes before any talks on Hezbollah's arms.

    Washington has grown impatient, demanding the Beirut government make the first move with a formal commitment to disarm Hezbollah.

    WHY IS HEZBOLLAH SO WELL-ARMED?

    After Lebanon's 15-year civil war ended in 1990 Hezbollah, founded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in 1982, was the only group allowed to keep its weapons on the grounds that it was fighting Israel's occupation of the country's south.

    After Israel withdrew in 2000 the group did not give up its arms, arguing its ability to fight was still a critical element of national defense against future Israeli aggression.

    A ceasefire agreement after a war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 was backed by a UN resolution demanding the disarmament of all militant groups, but Hezbollah again kept its weapons, accusing Israel of having violated other parts of the truce deal, which Israel denies.

    Hezbollah took over parts of Beirut in fighting in 2008, underscoring its dominance. The group exercised decisive sway over state affairs in the following years as its power grew.

    WHAT DOES HEZBOLLAH SAY AND COULD THERE BE CIVIL STRIFE?

    Hezbollah has called the government's decision to ask the army to draw up plans to disarm it a "grave sin" that "fully serves Israel's interest".

    Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem rejected each clause in Barrack's roadmap and when he spoke on Tuesday, dozens of motorcycles with men carrying Hezbollah flags drove around the group's stronghold in Beirut's southern suburbs - a show of its enduring strength.

    Hovering over any attempt to force Hezbollah to disarm is the specter of previous bouts of civil unrest, including the 2008 fighting, triggered by the government's attempt to shut down the group's military telecoms network - an important facility for the group, but still less central than its arms.

    WHAT ARE THE POLITICAL COMPLICATIONS?

    Lebanon's power-sharing system apportions public sector posts, including in parliament, the cabinet and other roles, to different religious sects according to quotas.

    The system is meant to ensure no sect is cut out of decision making, but critics say it leads to political paralysis.

    Shiite representation in both parliament and cabinet is dominated by Hezbollah and its political ally Amal.

    Two Shiite ministers were travelling during Tuesday's cabinet session, and the other two walked out in the final moments as the decision was being taken. Qassem has said any government decision would require a national consensus and may challenge the legitimacy of cabinet decisions taken without Shiites.

    WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

    The cabinet decision gave the army a deadline to submit a disarmament plan to the government by the end of August. Another session scheduled for Thursday will discuss Barrack's proposal.

    Some Lebanese parties may keep trying to find a workaround that avoids a confrontation between Hezbollah and the state while warding off heavier Israeli strikes.