Can Sudan Survive?

Displaced people fleeing from Wad Madani in Sudan's Jazira state. AFP
Displaced people fleeing from Wad Madani in Sudan's Jazira state. AFP
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Can Sudan Survive?

Displaced people fleeing from Wad Madani in Sudan's Jazira state. AFP
Displaced people fleeing from Wad Madani in Sudan's Jazira state. AFP

The year 2023 began on a seemingly optimistic note for Sudan. Its leading generals, Burhan of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Hemedti of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had endorsed a framework agreement to create a civilian transitional government. Tragically, at year end, Sudan faces de facto division like Libya. Its capital is destroyed, ethnic killing rages, 5.5 million Sudanese are displaced and 18 million are experiencing acute hunger.

This is a far cry from what the Sudanese people, the United States and others envisioned following the April 2019 ouster of President Bashir and subsequent formation of a predominantly civilian transitional government. What went wrong? The kleptocratic state created by Bashir proved powerful and enduring despite his ouster. Civilian political actors became increasingly fractious and failed to connect with the women and youth who led the 2018-19 revolution. When the transitional government tried to transition some control of the economy from military hands, Generals Burhan and Hemedti staged a coup in October 2021.

Post-coup, the United Nations, African Union and the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) jointly tried to facilitate a new accommodation between civilian political actors and the generals. The United States supported this effort. The process led to an agreement to establish a new civilian transitional government in April 2023. However, the contentious issue of integration of the RSF and SAF into one army remained unresolved and spoilers took advantage.

On April 15, fighting broke out between SAF and RSF in and around the capital, Khartoum. It quickly spread. At year’s end, the RSF controls four of the five states of Darfur in the west and significant portions of Kordofan in the south as well as much of greater Khartoum. The SAF dominates most areas east of the White Nile. Sudan is de facto divided.

The world has not ignored this new crisis in Sudan. The United States and Saudi Arabia quickly organized negotiations in Jeddah seeking a ceasefire and humanitarian access to displaced Sudanese. Despite the generals’ promises of a ceasefire, fighting continued. Negotiations were suspended. Other external actors also tried their hand at mediation. However, Burhan’s rump government rejected African Union efforts citing the AU’s post-coup suspension of Sudan as evidence of bias. Burhan rejected the IGAD quartet effort claiming its Kenyan leadership favored the RSF. He also stymied any role for the UN’s mission in Sudan. Egypt convened a meeting of neighboring states but that effort failed to stop the fighting. The most horrendous result of the expanding conflict was the slaughter of ethnic Masalit by the RSF and its nomadic tribal allies. Such killing and raping continues to spread unchecked or uncheckable by RSF leadership.

In October 2023, the United States and Saudi Arabia resumed the Jeddah talks and soon secured SAF and RSF agreement to discuss confidence building measures toward establishing a permanent ceasefire. However, the Sudanese generals quickly reverted to their maximalist demands of the other and the fighting continued. IGAD convened an extraordinary summit on December 3 and reportedly generals Burhan and Hemedti agreed to meet within 15 days to discuss a 30-day ceasefire. No sooner had Burhan returned from the summit than his Foreign Ministry began undermining the summit’s outcome. Peace efforts seem to be deadlocked.

Despite recent RSF territorial gains, the fighting also seems headed for deadlock. Can the SAF or RSF decisively defeat the other? While the generals may still believe so, Sudan’s history suggests otherwise. Its prior 38 years of civil war resulted in the country’s partition, not military victory.

Is further division of Sudan what anyone – Sudanese or outside party - really wants? Whose interests are served by such an outcome? Certainly not the interests of the majority of Sudanese who will continue to suffer and die if fighting continues. Certainly not the interests of the United States and Europe which want the ethnic killing to stop, humanitarian relief to flow and democratic governance in Sudan. And hopefully not Sudan’s neighbors who either fear a spillover of insecurity or want to invest in Sudan’s vast mineral, agricultural and commercial potential. Can investments really be secure if two armed camps continue to fight?

For the fighting and current de facto division to end, compromises need to be made among all parties’ interests. Where to begin? Probably not with Sudan’s generals who are still seeking military victory and offering no plausible path to peace. Perhaps begin with those who are enabling the continued fighting. Recently appointed UN Secretary General Special Envoy Ramtane Lamamra has the experience and gravitas necessary to engage all parties connected to the conflict to stop the fighting and open space for a political solution. The imminent appointment of an IGAD special envoy could also help, provided there is unity of effort with Lamamra. Perhaps a non-official “track two” effort could also be helpful in finding a formula that satisfies enough of each parties’ interests to end the fighting and find a political path to re-unify Sudan. However, true national unification will require the support of the vast majority of the Sudanese people. That means the civilian political and grassroots movements, which are becoming increasingly unified, need to be at the center of any formula for lasting peace and stability. Since independence, Sudan mostly experienced military rule and it became a brittle state. Cobbling together another military-dominated government and hoping for a different outcome is futile.

Might the United States and Europe support such an interests-based approach entailing many compromises? Might they be better able to achieve the security, humanitarian and governance objectives of the Sudanese people by doing so? Could they support deals cut by Sudan’s generals and civilian leaders with the country’s regional partners? In other words, could they compromise some of their interests if those fueling and fighting the war are willing to do the same?

Sudan’s survival depends on ending the fighting. That requires adroit diplomacy, facilitated by a trusted, disinterested party, to secure compromises of both Sudanese and external interests.



Netanyahu-Trump Meeting Reveals Unexpected Gaps on Key Issues

 President Donald Trump, left, shakes hands with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he leaves the West Wing of the White House, Monday, April 7, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
President Donald Trump, left, shakes hands with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he leaves the West Wing of the White House, Monday, April 7, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
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Netanyahu-Trump Meeting Reveals Unexpected Gaps on Key Issues

 President Donald Trump, left, shakes hands with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he leaves the West Wing of the White House, Monday, April 7, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
President Donald Trump, left, shakes hands with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he leaves the West Wing of the White House, Monday, April 7, 2025, in Washington. (AP)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to Washington this week for a hastily organized White House visit bringing a long list of concerns: Iran's nuclear program. President Donald Trump's tariffs. The surging influence of rival Türkiye in Syria. And the 18-month war in Gaza.

Netanyahu appeared to leave Monday's meeting largely empty-handed — a stark contrast with his triumphant visit two months ago. During an hourlong Oval Office appearance, Trump appeared to slap down, contradict or complicate each of Netanyahu's policy prerogatives.

On Tuesday, Netanyahu declared the meeting a success, calling it a “very good visit” and claiming successes on all fronts. But privately, the Israeli delegation felt it was a tough meeting, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations.

Netanyahu “didn't hear exactly what he wanted to hear, so he returns back home with very little,” said Nadav Eyal, a commentator with the Yediot Ahronot daily, who added that the visit was still friendly, despite the disagreements.

Netanyahu's second pilgrimage to Washington under Trump's second term was organized at short notice and billed as an attempt to address the new US tariff regime. But it came at a pivotal time in Middle East geopolitics. Israel restarted the war in Gaza last month, ending a Trump-endorsed ceasefire, and tensions with Iran are rising over its nuclear program.

Netanyahu and his allies were thrilled with Trump's return to office given his strong support for Israel during his first term. This time around, Trump has not only nominated pro-Israel figures for key administration positions, he has abandoned the Biden administration's criticism of Israel's conduct in Gaza and the West Bank, and of Netanyahu's steps to weaken Israeli courts.

Monday's meeting showed that while Trump remains sympathetic to Israel, Netanyahu's relationship with the president during his second term is more complicated and unpredictable than he may have expected.

Here is a look at where Trump and Netanyahu appear to have diverged.

Netanyahu has long pushed for military pressure against Iran

With Netanyahu's strong encouragement, Trump in 2018 unilaterally withdrew the United States from the agreement between world powers and Iran over its nuclear program. That deal, negotiated by the Obama administration, put curbs on Iran's nuclear program. It was denigrated by Netanyahu because he said it did not go far enough to contain Iran or address Iran's support for regional militant groups.

Netanyahu has long maintained that military pressure was the best way to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel struck Iran last year in the countries' first direct conflict ever. But it did not target Iran's nuclear facilities, something Israel would likely need US military assistance to do in order to strike targets buried deep underground.

Trump has suggested, including on Monday, that the US could take military action if Iran doesn't agree to negotiate. But his announcement Monday that talks would take place between the US and Iran this weekend flew in the face of Netanyahu's hawkish views.

Netanyahu gave a tepid endorsement, noting that both leaders agree that Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon. He said he would favor a diplomatic agreement similar to Libya's deal in 2003 to destroy its nuclear facilities and allow inspectors unfettered access. However, it is not clear if Trump will set such strict conditions.

Eyal said the announcement with Netanyahu by Trump's side was meant to show the transparency between the countries' leadership.

Netanyahu hoped for tariff relief and appeared to be rebuffed

A day before Trump's so-called Liberation Day unleashed global tariffs on the world last week, Israel preemptively announced that it would eliminate all levies on US goods. But that didn't spare Israeli products from being slapped with a 17% tariff by its largest trading partner.

Netanyahu was summoned to Washington ostensibly to make Israel's case against the levy. He was the first international leader to do so, in an encounter that may have set the stage for how other world leaders approach the tariffs.

While Trump repeatedly praised the Israeli leader, he did not appear to budge on Israel's share of the burden. Asked if he might change his mind, he said “maybe not.” He cited the billions of dollars the US gives Israel in military assistance each year — money that is seen as the bedrock of the US-Israel relationship and an insurance policy for US interests in the region.

“We give Israel $4 billion a year. That's a lot,” he said, as though to suggest Israel was already getting enough from the US, and congratulated Netanyahu on that achievement.

Netanyahu was told to be reasonable on Türkiye

Since the fall of the Assad dynasty in Syria late last year, Israel and Türkiye have been competing in the country over their separate interests there. Israel fears that Syria's new leadership will pose a new threat along its border. It has since taken over a buffer zone in Syrian territory and said it will remain there indefinitely until new security arrangements are made.

Türkiye has emerged as a key player in Syria, prompting concerns in Israel over the possibility of Türkiye expanding its military presence inside the country. Netanyahu said Tuesday that Turkish bases in Syria would be a “danger to Israel.”

Once strong regional partners, ties between Israel and Türkiye have long been frosty and deteriorated further over the war in Gaza. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been an outspoken critic of the war, prompting angry reactions from Israeli officials.

Netanyahu sought to hear support from his stalwart ally Trump on a country Israel perceives as increasingly hostile. Instead, Trump lavished praise on Erdogan for “taking over Syria,” positioned himself as a possible mediator between the countries and urged Netanyahu to be “reasonable” in his dealings with the country.

“Israel is not provided with a blank check here,” said Udi Sommer, an expert on US-Israel relations at Tel Aviv University. “There's no unconditional love here. It is contingent. It is contingent on Israel behaving a certain way.”

Trump wants the war in Gaza to end

While both addressed the ongoing war in Gaza and the Israeli hostages who remain held there, the topic appeared to take a backseat to other issues.

Netanyahu spoke of the hostages' plight and an emerging deal to free them, as well as the need to end the “evil tyranny of Hamas.” Trump sympathized with the hostages and made another pitch for his plan to “own” Gaza and remove its Palestinian population, a once fringe idea in Israeli discourse that has now found acceptance among mainstream politicians, including Netanyahu.

However, there were signs of differences on the horizon.

Netanyahu broke the ceasefire last month and has been under major pressure from his governing allies to keep up the fighting until Hamas is crushed. He has appeared to be in no rush to end the war or bring home the remaining hostages.

Trump, however, made it clear that he'd like to see the hostages freed and for the war to end. “And I think the war will stop at some point that won't be in the too distant future,” he said.