Is ‘Prosperity Guardian’ on the Brink of Offensive Operations in the Red Sea?

Satellite image of the Bab-el-Mandab Strait (NASA)
Satellite image of the Bab-el-Mandab Strait (NASA)
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Is ‘Prosperity Guardian’ on the Brink of Offensive Operations in the Red Sea?

Satellite image of the Bab-el-Mandab Strait (NASA)
Satellite image of the Bab-el-Mandab Strait (NASA)

Discussions are heating up about potential actions by the US-led maritime coalition, Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG), to secure navigation in the Red Sea.

Reports reveal that the US military is actively planning responses to Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the region.

Concerns are growing about the risk of a broader regional conflict, particularly at the Red Sea entrance, a crucial route for global trade.

Officials in President Joe Biden’s administration, according to US-based Politico, are working on response plans, expressing concern about the Gaza conflict escalating into a more extensive and prolonged regional crisis.

Internal discussions are ongoing about scenarios that could involve the US in another Middle East war.

As per a report from Politico, the US military is currently formulating plans to respond to Houthi attacks, including targeting the Yemeni group.

Over the last three months, the US has sent numerous naval ships and fighter jets to the Middle East, hoping to discourage Iran-backed groups from launching attacks that could escalate into a regional war.

However, Axios, a US news website, suggests that achieving this goal is becoming increasingly difficult.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron stated that if the attacks continue, action will be taken, including the use of British ships.

At the same time, Vice-admiral Brad Cooper, who leads US Naval forces in the Middle East, announced that 22 countries are currently involved in countering Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, with more expected to join.

He clarified that OPG is defensive in nature.

Cooper mentioned that Houthis in Yemen continue their reckless attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. However, he also noted an improvement in maritime corridors and trade.

Jordanian expert Mohsen Al-Shobaki expressed concern that the situation in the Red Sea could lead to military confrontations.

He highlighted uncertainty about the defensive nature of the coalition, suggesting it might lean towards offensive tasks. Al-Shobaki added that Israel is pushing for escalation.

Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz conveyed to US envoy Amos Hochstein that Israel is willing to work on a diplomatic solution. Still, if none is found, the Israeli army will take action to eliminate the threat, according to Israeli media reports.

Researcher Mohammed Talaat from the National Center for Middle East Studies in Egypt highlighted that current signs point to the US being hesitant and unwilling to get involved in a new conflict in the region, especially with the upcoming US elections, favoring diplomacy as the preferred solution.

However, he also noted that the indicators of danger and the likelihood of escalation have increased significantly.



Is Hezbollah Capable of Fighting Israel Again?

A poster of slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran, Iran. (Reuters)
A poster of slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran, Iran. (Reuters)
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Is Hezbollah Capable of Fighting Israel Again?

A poster of slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran, Iran. (Reuters)
A poster of slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Tehran, Iran. (Reuters)

Hezbollah has once again threatened to take up the fight against Israel amid the conflict between Iran and Israel.

The Lebanese people have been warily observing the conflict between the arch foes, worried that Hezbollah may yet again drag them into another war with Israel, this time to defend its main backer Iran.

Hezbollah had launched a “support war” against Israel and in solidarity with Hamas in wake of the Palestinian movement’s October 7, 2023 attack. Israel subsequently launched an all-out war against Hezbollah in 2024, decimating its weapons arsenal and eliminating its top command.

Since a ceasefire took hold in November, efforts have been underway to disarm Hezbollah.

On Monday, deputy Chairman of Hezbollah's Political Council Mahmoud Qamati declared that the party was “prepared to fight the Israeli enemy should it despair in the Lebanese state’s ability to fulfill its vows and commitments in confronting the aggression.”

Ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat his statement was “a message, but whose direction we don’t know.”

“What matters now is that the party is still committing to the government’s decision to stay out of the conflict. Hezbollah had also declared that it will not launch a new support war,” they noted.

Qamati added: “The resistance (Hezbollah) will not abandon its national duty if the state proves itself incapable or unwilling to deter the ongoing Israeli attacks. Hezbollah still believes the confrontation with Israel to be a national and sovereign issue.”

His statements contradict those made by Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah, as well as sources from the party.

Last week, Fadlallah said: “Iran has proven throughout history that it can defend itself when attacked. It is not asking anyone to defend it. It is waging the fight itself, and it knows how to protect its people and how to wage a confrontation.”

“There are no such things as Iran’s proxies, rather there are resistance movements,” he charged.

Dr. Kassem Kassir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, said Qamati was talking about Israel’s occupation of Lebanese territories and means to confront it, not supporting Iran.

“His remarks are in preparation for any scenario that may emerge,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Imad Salamey, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the Lebanese American University, dismissed Hezbollah’s comments about taking up the fight as “nothing more than a desperate attempt to make itself seem relevant, when in reality it is on the brink of total collapse.”

“Hezbollah has lost the overwhelming majority of its military capabilities: its weapons arsenal has been destroyed by Israeli strikes, its supply routes from Israel are no more and its field commanders have been systematically assassinated,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“As for Iranian support, in all likelihood its must have dropped dramatically as a result of internal and external pressure on Tehran, including the Israeli attacks, leaving Hezbollah in unprecedented isolation,” he stressed.

“The fact is that Hezbollah can no longer pose a real threat to Israel. With its popular support waning, the party is likely resorting to internal threats, specifically within its Shiite fold, to suppress any attempt at defection or mutiny,” he explained.

“The threats we have been hearing are nothing more than a form of propaganda aimed at hiding Hezbollah’s reality and reshaping its image that cannot be backed up with any tangible support,” Salamey said.

Head of Lebanese Forces Media and Communications Department Charles Jabbour echoed these comments, saying Qamati’s remarks are nothing more than “words aimed at compensating for Hezbollah’s inability to wage a support war for Iran.”

“Those who supported Hamas were better off supporting the side that established it and supplied it with funds and weapons,” he said, referring to Hezbollah’s main backer Iran.

“All of these threats are aimed at Hezbollah’s supporters to give them the impression that they are still capable of fighting. The reality is that they can no longer do anything but hand over their weapons,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Meanwhile, the Kataeb party praised the Lebanese state’s firm stance in keeping Lebanon neutral from the regional conflict.

The developments demand that Hezbollah take a “clear and immediate decision to meet calls to lay down its weapons and hand them over to the army and disengage itself completely from any foreign powers,” it said.

“It must return to the fold of the state that remains the only protector of all Lebanese people,” it added.