Iran-Pakistan Flare-up Rooted in Restive Borderlands, Not Mideast Strife

The flag of Iran is seen over its consulate building, with Pakistan's flag in the foreground, after the Pakistani foreign ministry said the country conducted strikes inside Iran targeting separatist militants, two days after Tehran said it attacked Israel-linked militant bases inside Pakistani territory, in Karachi, Pakistan January 18, 2024. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
The flag of Iran is seen over its consulate building, with Pakistan's flag in the foreground, after the Pakistani foreign ministry said the country conducted strikes inside Iran targeting separatist militants, two days after Tehran said it attacked Israel-linked militant bases inside Pakistani territory, in Karachi, Pakistan January 18, 2024. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
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Iran-Pakistan Flare-up Rooted in Restive Borderlands, Not Mideast Strife

The flag of Iran is seen over its consulate building, with Pakistan's flag in the foreground, after the Pakistani foreign ministry said the country conducted strikes inside Iran targeting separatist militants, two days after Tehran said it attacked Israel-linked militant bases inside Pakistani territory, in Karachi, Pakistan January 18, 2024. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
The flag of Iran is seen over its consulate building, with Pakistan's flag in the foreground, after the Pakistani foreign ministry said the country conducted strikes inside Iran targeting separatist militants, two days after Tehran said it attacked Israel-linked militant bases inside Pakistani territory, in Karachi, Pakistan January 18, 2024. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro

An Iranian strike on Pakistan this week that drew a rapid military riposte and raised fears of greater regional turmoil was driven by Iran's efforts to reinforce its internal security rather than its ambitions for the Middle East, according to three Iranian officials, one Iranian insider and an analyst.
Both the heavily-armed neighbors, oftentimes at odds over instability on their frontier, appear to want to try to contain the strains resulting from the highest-profile cross-border intrusions in recent years, two analysts and two of the officials said.
Iran sent shockwaves around the region on Tuesday with a missile strike against what it described as hardline “Sunni Muslim militants” in southwest Pakistan. Two days later, Pakistan in retaliation attacked what it said were separatist militants in Iran - the first air strike on Iranian soil since the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.
Tuesday's strike was one of Iran's toughest cross-border assaults on the militant Jaish al-Adl group in Pakistan, which it says has links to ISIS. Many of Jaish's members previously belonged to a now-defunct militant group known as Jundallah that had pledged allegiance to ISIS.
The move deepened worries about Middle East instability that have spread since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October. Iran-allied militias from Yemen to Lebanon have launched strikes on US and Israeli targets, including on Red Sea shipping, in sympathy with Gaza's Palestinians.
It also came a day after Iran launched attacks in Iraq and Syria, which it said targeted Israeli espionage and ISIS operations, respectively.
But the tit-for-tat blows between Iran and Pakistan occurred far from that war zone, in remote borderlands where separatist groups and Islamist militants have long carried out attacks on government targets, with officials in Pakistan and Iran often accusing each other of complicity in the bloodshed.
Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, an international risk consultancy, said Tehran's strikes were motivated in large part by Iran's rising concerns about the threat of domestic militant violence in the wake of a deadly Jan. 3 bombing claimed by the ISIS group.
"There's a lot of domestic pressure to 'do something,' and the leadership is responding to that pressure," he said.
Spokespeople for the Iranian and Pakistani foreign ministries could not immediately be reached for comment.
'CRUSHING RESPONSE'
Pakistan recalled its ambassador from Iran in protest at Tuesday's attack. For its part, Tehran strongly condemned Pakistan's strikes on Thursday, saying civilians were killed, and summoned Pakistan's most senior diplomat in Iran to give an explanation.
But in their statements, neither government sought to make a link to the Gaza war or to attacks carried out in support of Palestinians by a network of militias allied to Iran.
In a public statement on Thursday, the foreign ministry in Tehran said: "Iran considers the security of its people and its territorial integrity as a red line" and expects "friendly and brotherly" Pakistan to prevent armed militant bases on its soil.
For Iran, the trigger for the flare-up was a devastating bombing on Jan. 3 that killed nearly 100 people at a ceremony in the southeastern city of Kerman to commemorate commander Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by a US drone in 2020.
Soleimani, architect of Iran's drive to extend its influence across the Middle East, was a hero to supporters of the hardline establishment. Tehran publicly vowed revenge against ISIS militant group that claimed responsibility for the bombing.
An Iranian insider close to the country's ruling clerics described the Kerman bombing as "an embarrassment for the leadership" that had shown Iranian security to be vulnerable.
Tuesday's strike was aimed at demonstrating the security organizations' capabilities amid concern among Iranians about a lack of security in the country, the Iranian insider said.
"Such terrorist attacks will get a crushing response from Iran," the insider said.
Iran has also arrested dozens of people linked to ISIS.
On Tuesday, Iranian missiles struck two bases of the Jaish al-Adl (or the Army of Justice) group in Pakistan's southwestern province of Balochistan, which borders Iran.
A senior Iranian security official told Reuters that Iran had provided Pakistan with evidence that Jaish al-Adl was involved in the Kerman attack, coordinating its logistics, and had asked Pakistan to act against it. Iran had obtained evidence that members of the group were among a number of militants planning further attacks in Iran, he said.
"We have warned everyone that any action against our nation, our national security will not go unanswered," the official added, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
IRAN 'LOST PATIENCE'
Iran has been pressing Islamabad for years to address the presence of militants near its border, Brew said. The missile strikes were a sign that Tehran has lost patience, he said.
To be sure, Iran continues to see its role and influence in the Middle East as a central to its security goals.
Brew said that Iran's strike on Pakistan was also intended to signal its resolve, to both enemies and allies, to defend itself in the context of the regional crisis over Gaza.
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank, said bilateral tension on border security was a longstanding problem for Iran and Pakistan.
De-escalation would be difficult in the immediate term, "given the high tensions and temperatures at play", he said.
Neither country appears poised for conflict, however. In public statements, both countries have observed their attacks were not aimed at each other's nationals, and signaled they don't want escalation.
Kugelman said both countries might welcome bilateral dialogue and potential third party mediation from a country like China, which has good relations and leverage with both countries. "Diplomacy will be critical from here on out," he said.



Where Things Stand in the US-China Trade War

OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: The container ship CMA CGM Osiris arrives at the Port of Oakland on April 09, 2025 in Oakland, California.  Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: The container ship CMA CGM Osiris arrives at the Port of Oakland on April 09, 2025 in Oakland, California. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP
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Where Things Stand in the US-China Trade War

OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: The container ship CMA CGM Osiris arrives at the Port of Oakland on April 09, 2025 in Oakland, California.  Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: The container ship CMA CGM Osiris arrives at the Port of Oakland on April 09, 2025 in Oakland, California. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP

US President Donald Trump has ramped up his trade war against China, further raising import tariffs on Beijing to 125 percent despite pausing them for other countries.

The move came hours after China announced reciprocal action against the United States in response to a previous levy hike.

AFP looks at how the escalating trade war between the world's two biggest economies is playing out -- and what impact it might have:

What actions has Trump taken so far?

Trump said Wednesday that the US would raise tariffs on Chinese imports to a staggering 125 percent, citing a "lack of respect" from Beijing.

The announcement came as the mercurial president announced a halt on tariffs for other nations for 90 days, following panic on global markets.

The new levy on China marked the latest salvo in a brewing tit-for-tat trade war between the two global superpowers.

A previous round of US tariffs had come into force earlier on Wednesday, jacking up duties on China to 104 percent.

As well as the blanket levies, China is also under sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminium and car imports.

How has China responded?

China has vowed to fight the measures "to the end" and so far has unveiled reciprocal tariffs each time Trump has upped the ante.

Responding to the 104 percent duties on Wednesday, Beijing said it would raise its own tariffs on US imports from 34 percent to 84 percent, effective from Thursday.

It also said it had filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO), citing "bullying" tactics by the Trump administration.

China had not responded to the latest hike in tariffs to 125 percent levies as of Thursday morning.

But its countermeasures have begun to step outside the economic sphere, with government departments warning citizens of the "risks" of travelling to the US or studying in parts of the country.

And while Beijing has blasted the US with fiery rhetoric, it has continued to urge "equal dialogue" to resolve the trade spat.

Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said China had sent a "clear signal" that it would not back down, adding that there was "(no) quick and easy way out" of the conflict.

Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan, agreed, saying "the bar for a possible deal is high".

- Why is China so vulnerable to tariffs? -

Trade between the world's two largest economies is vast.

Sales of Chinese goods to the US last year totaled more than $500 billion -- 16.4 percent of the country's exports, according to Beijing's customs data.

And China imported $143.5 billion in goods from the United States in 2024, according to the office of the US Trade Representative.

That trade was dominated by agricultural products, primarily oilseeds and grains, according to the US-China Business Council. Oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are also among major US exports to China.

Beijing has long drawn Trump's ire with a trade surplus with the United States that reached $295.4 billion last year, according to the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Chinese leaders have been reluctant to disrupt the status quo, in part because the country's export-driven economy is particularly sensitive to vicissitudes in international trade.

US duties also threaten to harm China's fragile post-Covid economic recovery as it struggles with a debt crisis in the property sector and persistently low consumption -- a downturn Beijing had sought to slow with broad fiscal stimulus last year.

But an intensified trade war will likely mean China cannot peg its hopes for strong economic growth this year on its exports, which reached record highs in 2024.

What impact will US tariffs have?

The head of the WTO said Wednesday that the US-China tariff war could cut trade in goods between the two countries by 80 percent.

Given the two economic giants account for three percent of world trade, the conflict could "severely damage the global economic outlook", Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.

Analysts expect the levies to take a significant chunk out of China's GDP, which Beijing's leadership hope will grow five percent this year.

Likely to be hit hardest are China's top exports to the United States -- everything from electronics and machinery to textiles and clothing, according to the Peterson Institute of International Economics.

And because of the crucial role Chinese goods play in supplying US firms, the tariffs may also hurt American manufacturers and consumers, analysts have warned.

Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said it was "difficult to see either side backing down in the next few days".

But, he added, "talks will eventually happen, although a full rollback of all the additional tariffs... appear unlikely".