Netanyahu under Pressure over Israel Troop Losses, Hostages

 A person holds an Israeli flag with an image depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as people protest against his government in Tel Aviv, Israel, January 20, 2024. (Reuters)
A person holds an Israeli flag with an image depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as people protest against his government in Tel Aviv, Israel, January 20, 2024. (Reuters)
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Netanyahu under Pressure over Israel Troop Losses, Hostages

 A person holds an Israeli flag with an image depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as people protest against his government in Tel Aviv, Israel, January 20, 2024. (Reuters)
A person holds an Israeli flag with an image depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as people protest against his government in Tel Aviv, Israel, January 20, 2024. (Reuters)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a mounting crisis after Israel's worst day of troop losses in the Gaza war as well as growing protests over his failure to bring hostages back.

The military's strategy in the Palestinian territory is under intense scrutiny following the death of 24 troops on Monday, Israel's biggest one-day loss since its ground offensive in Gaza started in late October.

Among those killed were 21 reservists, who died in a single incident.

The incident, which saw rocket-propelled grenade fire hit a tank and two buildings the soldiers were trying to blow up, was deemed a "disaster" by Netanyahu.

Emmanuel Navon, a lecturer at Tel Aviv University, told AFP the troop losses "affect everybody, because almost everybody in the country has a son or brother or a relative (fighting in Gaza)".

Israelis would now be increasingly asking "what is the strategy... Do we really keep going until we finish Hamas?" he added.

At the same time, splits have emerged in Netanyahu's war cabinet following protests in Tel Aviv and outside his Jerusalem home, where relatives of hostages staged a rally Monday chanting "everybody and now" to urge the return of captives.

"The current mood in the war cabinet is very bad," said Julia Elad-Strenger, a lecturer at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv.

Netanyahu's steadfast vow to eliminate the Palestinian militant group Hamas in response to the October 7 attack is increasingly seen within the cabinet as incompatible with returning hostages held in Gaza, experts told AFP.

War cabinet divided

Two members of the five-person war cabinet, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, have rejected Netanyahu's stance that only military pressure on Hamas will allow the return of hostages, the experts said.

"According to Netanyahu there can be no victory with Hamas left standing, according to Gantz and Eisenkot there can be no victory with hostages lost," said Reuven Hazan, a professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Eisenkot, whose son died fighting in Gaza, gave an interview last week in which he split from Netanyahu's long-held position.

"It is impossible to return the hostages alive in the near future without an agreement (with Hamas)," he told Israeli broadcaster Channel 12.

Netanyahu has vowed "total victory" over Hamas in response to the unprecedented attack by its fighters on October 7 that resulted in the deaths of about 1,140 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

The militants seized about 250 hostages and Israel says around 132 remain in besieged Gaza, including the bodies of at least 28 dead hostages, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli data.

In response to the attack, Israel has launched a relentless offensive in Gaza that has killed at least 25,490 people, around 70 percent of them women, young children and adolescents, according to the latest toll issued Tuesday by Gaza's health ministry.

'Worst point'

Netanyahu has rejected suggestions that his government should hold another round of talks with Hamas to reach a similar deal to one struck in November that led to the release of 80 Israeli hostages.

Under that deal, brokered by Qatar, the United States and Egypt, a seven-day humanitarian pause was agreed that allowed aid deliveries into Gaza, while hundreds of Palestinian prisoners were released in exchange for hostages.

The Israeli premier doubled down on his refusal to enter talks with Hamas on Sunday, saying: "The conditions demanded by Hamas demonstrate a simple truth: there is no substitute for victory."

Netanyahu said Hamas had set conditions for the release of more hostages that included an end to the war, withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and guarantees that the group will stay in power.

Experts said they expected the Israeli premier to continue the war as a tactic to remain in power, even as pressure to change course mounts.

"I think he has made a decision to keep this war going and not just for his political interests, but endless war is his strategy in general," said Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.

"As far as Netanyahu is concerned, if the war lasts beyond 2024 that's better for him politically because it gets October 7 further away from us and it gives him a chance to rebuild," said Hazan of Hebrew University.

"Right now he is at the worst point in his entire career," said Hazan.



Trump Carves Up World and International Order with It

Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
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Trump Carves Up World and International Order with It

Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP

By casting doubt on the world order, Donald Trump risks dragging the globe back into an era where great powers impose their imperial will on the weak, analysts warn.
Russia wants Ukraine, China demands Taiwan and now the US president seems to be following suit, whether by coveting Canada as the "51st US state", insisting "we've got to have" Greenland or kicking Chinese interests out of the Panama Canal.
Where the United States once defended state sovereignty and international law, Trump's disregard for his neighbors' borders and expansionist ambitions mark a return to the days when the world was carved up into spheres of influence.
As recently as Wednesday, US defense secretary Pete Hegseth floated the idea of an American military base to secure the Panama Canal, a strategic waterway controlled by the United States until 1999 which Trump's administration has vowed to "take back".
Hegseth's comments came nearly 35 years after the United States invaded to topple Panama's dictator Manuel Noriega, harking back to when successive US administrations viewed Latin America as "America's backyard".
"The Trump 2.0 administration is largely accepting the familiar great power claim to 'spheres of influence'," Professor Gregory O. Hall, of the University of Kentucky, told AFP.
Indian diplomat Jawed Ashraf warned that by "speaking openly about Greenland, Canada, Panama Canal", "the new administration may have accelerated the slide" towards a return to great power domination.
The empire strikes back
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has posed as the custodian of an international order "based on the ideas of countries' equal sovereignty and territorial integrity", said American researcher Jeffrey Mankoff, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
But those principles run counter to how Russia and China see their own interests, according to the author of "Empires of Eurasia: how imperial legacies shape international security".
Both countries are "themselves products of empires and continue to function in many ways like empires", seeking to throw their weight around for reasons of prestige, power or protection, Mankoff said.
That is not to say that spheres of influence disappeared with the fall of the Soviet Union.
"Even then, the US and Western allies sought to expand their sphere of influence eastward into what was the erstwhile Soviet and then the Russian sphere of influence," Ashraf, a former adviser to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, pointed out.
But until the return of Trump, the United States exploited its position as the "policeman of the world" to ward off imperial ambitions while pushing its own interests.
Now that Trump appears to view the cost of upholding a rules-based order challenged by its rivals and increasingly criticized in the rest of the world as too expensive, the United States is contributing to the cracks in the facade with Russia and China's help.
And as the international order weakens, the great powers "see opportunities to once again behave in an imperial way", said Mankoff.
Yalta yet again
As at Yalta in 1945, when the United States and the Soviet Union divided the post-World War II world between their respective zones of influence, Washington, Beijing and Moscow could again agree to carve up the globe anew.
"Improved ties between the United States and its great-power rivals, Russia and China, appear to be imminent," Derek Grossman, of the United States' RAND Corporation think tank, said in March.
But the haggling over who gets dominance over what and where would likely come at the expense of other countries.
"Today's major powers are seeking to negotiate a new global order primarily with each other," Monica Toft, professor of international relations at Tufts University in Massachusets wrote in the journal Foreign Affairs.
"In a scenario in which the United States, China, and Russia all agree that they have a vital interest in avoiding a nuclear war, acknowledging each other's spheres of influence can serve as a mechanism to deter escalation," Toft said.
If that were the case, "negotiations to end the war in Ukraine could resemble a new Yalta", she added.
Yet the thought of a Ukraine deemed by Trump to be in Russia's sphere is likely to send shivers down the spines of many in Europe -- not least in Ukraine itself.
"The success or failure of Ukraine to defend its sovereignty is going to have a lot of impact in terms of what the global system ends up looking like a generation from now," Mankoff said.
"So it's important for countries that have the ability and want to uphold an anti-imperial version of international order to assist Ukraine," he added -- pointing the finger at Europe.
"In Trump's world, Europeans need their own sphere of influence," said Rym Momtaz, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
"For former imperial powers, Europeans seem strangely on the backfoot as nineteenth century spheres of influence come back as the organising principle of global affairs."