UNRWA Funding Cuts Put Lebanon's Palestinian Refugees on Alert

FILE PHOTO: A truck, marked with United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) logo, crosses into Egypt from Gaza, at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, during a temporary truce between Hamas and Israel, in Rafah, Egypt, November 27, 2023. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A truck, marked with United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) logo, crosses into Egypt from Gaza, at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, during a temporary truce between Hamas and Israel, in Rafah, Egypt, November 27, 2023. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh/File Photo
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UNRWA Funding Cuts Put Lebanon's Palestinian Refugees on Alert

FILE PHOTO: A truck, marked with United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) logo, crosses into Egypt from Gaza, at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, during a temporary truce between Hamas and Israel, in Rafah, Egypt, November 27, 2023. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A truck, marked with United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) logo, crosses into Egypt from Gaza, at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, during a temporary truce between Hamas and Israel, in Rafah, Egypt, November 27, 2023. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh/File Photo

Like many fellow residents of a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, Shady Choucair despaired when he heard last week that countries had halted their funding to the UN agency for Palestinians (UNRWA).
"It's a disaster. We were able to survive off the help we got from UNRWA," he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation in his small grocery store in the Mar Elias refugee camp in Beirut, where he has lived with his family for over a decade.
More than a dozen donor nations including the United States, Germany and Britain have paused their funding to the aid agency following Israeli government allegations that 12 of UNRWA's 13,000 Gaza employees were involved in deadly Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas gunmen in southern Israel.
UN officials have said UNRWA aid is a lifeline for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as fighting rages between Israel and Hamas group.
For the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees living in crisis-hit Lebanon and Syria, the cuts could also jeopardize the provision of basic services - from schooling to waste management.
UNRWA said last week it will most likely be forced to shut down its operations in the Middle East, including in Gaza, by the end of the month if funding does not resume.
Choucair, who receives UNRWA cash assistance to boost his tiny income from the grocery shop, said he feared he would be unable to pay the rent and buy his medicine for several medical conditions if the money stops.
"You want to do something about it, but you can't. It's out of our hands," said Choucair, who is also worried that the free schooling his nine grandchildren receive could be stopped.
'CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES'
UNRWA was set up to help the 700,000 refugees of the war surrounding Israel's founding in 1948 and provides essential services from education and healthcare to microloans and sanitation management to them in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.
More than half a million children are enrolled in UNRWA schools and around two million people benefit from its health services, it said on its website.
A lapse in funding would come at a dire moment for refugees in Lebanon and Syria, both of which remain mired in deep economic crises, said Riccardo Bocco, an expert on refugees at the Geneva Graduate Institute, a university.
"Without the money from UNRWA, who in Lebanon will take care of the health of the Palestinians? Their schools? Nobody," he added.
Following the allegations against UNRWA staff in Gaza, the agency opened an investigation and severed ties with members suspected of being involved in the Hamas attacks, and has urged donors to keep supporting it.
Aid agencies have joined its calls, with the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) warning that defunding would have "catastrophic consequences" for the people of Gaza.
The Israeli offensive launched in the wake of the Oct. 7 attacks, in which some 1,200 people were killed and 253 taken hostage, has killed more than 27,000 Palestinians, displaced most of Gaza's population, left many homes and civilian infrastructure in ruins, and caused acute shortages of food, water and medicine.
"It's difficult to imagine that Gazans will survive this crisis without UNRWA," Thomas White, director of UNRWA Affairs in Gaza, said in a statement on Thursday.
BEYOND GAZA
But beyond Gaza, the financing pause threatens UNRWA's vital assistance to some six million Palestinian refugees across the Middle East, many of whom are already experiencing economic hardship, said Ayham al-Sahli, a researcher at the Beirut-based Institute for Palestine Studies.
Palestinians fled to Lebanon and other Arab states in what they call the "Nakba", or catastrophe, when they were driven from their homes as Israel was created in 1948, although Israel contests the assertion that they were forced to leave.
The tents that first sheltered them have given way to camps like Mar Elias, crammed with badly built concrete buildings separated by narrow alleyways.
But the status of the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, whether survivors from the first days or their descendants, has not changed much over the decades: they remain stateless, cannot own property and are limited in the jobs they are permitted to do.
That means they have been particularly hard-hit by the country's four-year economic meltdown, with many still reliant on UNRWA aid, Sahli said.
The agency is "involved in every detail of the lives of the Palestinian refugees", he added.
In Syria, where civil war has devastated the country for more than a decade and where about 90% of its people live below the poverty line, UNRWA provides more than 400,000 Palestinian refugees with cash assistance and conducts development and environmental health projects in refugee camps, according to the agency's website.
'OUT ON THE STREET'
At a toy shop in the maze of alleys in Mar Elias, Hanadi al-Yusri - a Syrian refugee whose husband is Palestinian - said she was reeling from the news about UNRWA's funding cuts, and worried about how it would affect her two children.
"The kids will be left without vaccines," she said.
"We never expected this to happen, we are still in shock," said the 27-year-old, who uses cash assistance from the agency to help pay for rent and electricity in her family's one-bedroom apartment.
Fearing for his safety due to Israeli fire on southern Lebanon since the Hamas conflict erupted, Hussein Ahmad, 62, left his home in the Rashidieh Palestinian refugee camp and headed to stay with relatives in Mar Elias.
He said he was concerned about the potential impact of cuts to UNRWA's support to schools in the camps, where they are taught about their heritage - and the "Nakba" that led to their displacement.
"Our children go to UNRWA schools and learn about Palestinian history," he said as he sheltered from the rain in a grocery store in the camp.
"Where will they get that now? They will be out on the street."



France Is Facing an Election like No Other. Here’s How It Works and What Comes Next

 Ballots are seen at a polling station inside the Petit Poucet school during France's crunch legislative elections at the Vallee du Tir district in Noumea, in France's Pacific territory of New Caledonia, on June 30, 2024. (AFP)
Ballots are seen at a polling station inside the Petit Poucet school during France's crunch legislative elections at the Vallee du Tir district in Noumea, in France's Pacific territory of New Caledonia, on June 30, 2024. (AFP)
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France Is Facing an Election like No Other. Here’s How It Works and What Comes Next

 Ballots are seen at a polling station inside the Petit Poucet school during France's crunch legislative elections at the Vallee du Tir district in Noumea, in France's Pacific territory of New Caledonia, on June 30, 2024. (AFP)
Ballots are seen at a polling station inside the Petit Poucet school during France's crunch legislative elections at the Vallee du Tir district in Noumea, in France's Pacific territory of New Caledonia, on June 30, 2024. (AFP)

French voters are being called to the polls on Sunday for an exceptional moment in their political history: the first round of snap parliamentary elections that could see the country’s first far-right government since the World War II Nazi occupation — or no majority emerging at all.

The outcome of the vote, following the second round on July 7 and a hasty campaign, remains highly uncertain as three major political blocs are competing: the far-right National Rally, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance, and the New Popular Front coalition that includes center-left, greens and hard-left forces.

Here’s a closer look:

How does it work? The French system is complex and not proportionate to nationwide support for a party. Legislators are elected by district. A parliamentary candidate requires over 50% of the day’s vote to be elected outright Sunday.

Failing that, the top two contenders, alongside anyone else who won support from more than 12.5% of registered voters, go forward to a second round.

In some cases, three or four people make it to the second round, though some may step aside to improve the chances of another contender — a tactic often used in the past to block far-right candidates.

Key party leaders are expected to unveil their strategy in between the two rounds. This makes the result of the second round highly uncertain, and dependent on political maneuvering and how voters react.

The far-right National Rally, ahead in all preelection opinion polls, hopes to win an absolute majority, or at least 289 out of the 577 seats.

The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of France’s two houses of parliament. It has the final say in the law-making process over the Senate, dominated by conservatives.

Macron has a presidential mandate until 2027, and said he would not step down before the end of his term.

A person casts their vote at a polling station in the Magenta district during the first round of France's crunch legislative elections in Noumea in the first constituency of the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, on June 30, 2024. (AFP)

What's cohabitation? If another political force than his centrist alliance gets a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to that new majority.

In such a situation — called "cohabitation" in France — the government would implement policies that diverge from the president’s plan.

France’s modern Republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last one under conservative President Jacques Chirac, with Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, from 1997 to 2002.

The prime minister is accountable to the parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.

"In case of cohabitation, policies implemented are essentially those of the prime minister," political historian Jean Garrigues said.

The president is weakened at home during cohabitation, but still holds some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense because he is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces, and is the one holding the nuclear codes.

"It’s possible for the president to prevent or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister’s projects, since he has the power to sign or not sign the government’s ordinances or decrees," Garrigues added.

"Yet the prime minister has the power to submit these ordinances and decrees to a vote of the National Assembly, thus overriding the president’s reluctance," he noted.

A car drives past electoral posters, Thursday, June 27, 2024 in Strasbourg, eastern France. (AP)

Who leads defense and foreign policies? During previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policies were considered the informal "reserved field" of the president, who was usually able to find compromises with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.

Yet today, both the far-right and the leftist coalition's views in these areas differ radically from Macron’s approach and would likely be a subject of tension during a potential cohabitation.

According to the Constitution, while "the president is the head of the military, it's the prime minister who has the armed forces at his disposal," Garrigues said.

"In the diplomatic field also, the president’s perimeter is considerably restricted," Garrigues added.

The National Rally’s president, Jordan Bardella, said that if he were to become prime minister, he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine — a possibility Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would refuse French deliveries of long-range missiles and other weaponry capable of striking targets within Russia itself.

If the leftist coalition was to win the elections, it could disrupt France's diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.

The New Popular Front's platform plans to "immediately recognize the Palestinian state" and "break with the French government’s guilty support" for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

Macron previously argued the recognition of the Palestinian state should take place at a "useful moment," suggesting the Israel-Hamas war doesn't not allow such a move at the moment.

French member of parliament and previous candidate for French presidential election Marine Le Pen (R) attends French extreme right party Rassemblement National (RN, National Front) press conference ahead of legislative elections, Paris, France, 24 June 2024. (EPA)

What happens if there's no majority? The president can name a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats at the National Assembly — this was the case of Macron’s own centrist alliance since 2022.

Yet the National Rally already said it would reject such an option, because it would mean a far-right government could soon be overthrown through a no-confidence vote if other political parties join together.

The president could try to build a broad coalition from the left to the right, an option that sounds unlikely, given the political divergences.

Experts say another complex option would be to appoint "a government of experts" unaffiliated with political parties but which would still need to be accepted by a majority at the National Assembly. Such a government would likely deal mostly with day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.

If political talks take too long amid summer holidays and the July 26-Aug. 11 Olympics in Paris, Garrigues said a "transition period" is not ruled out, during which Macron's centrist government would "still be in charge of current affairs," pending further decisions.

"Whatever the National Assembly looks like, it seems that the Constitution of the 5th Republic is flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances," Melody Mock-Gruet, a public law expert teaching at Sciences Po Paris, said in a written note. "Institutions are more solid than they appear, even when faced with this experimental exercise."

"Yet there remains another unknown in the equation: the population’s ability to accept the situation," Mock-Gruet wrote.