What UNRWA Crisis Means for Palestinian Refugees Beyond Gaza 

People walk near a school run by UNRWA at Baqaa Palestinian refugee camp, near Amman, Jordan February 4, 2024. (Reuters)
People walk near a school run by UNRWA at Baqaa Palestinian refugee camp, near Amman, Jordan February 4, 2024. (Reuters)
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What UNRWA Crisis Means for Palestinian Refugees Beyond Gaza 

People walk near a school run by UNRWA at Baqaa Palestinian refugee camp, near Amman, Jordan February 4, 2024. (Reuters)
People walk near a school run by UNRWA at Baqaa Palestinian refugee camp, near Amman, Jordan February 4, 2024. (Reuters)

The prospect of the UN agency for Palestinians (UNRWA) being forced to shut down services by the end of February is deepening despair in refugee camps across the Middle East, where it has long provided a lifeline for millions of people.

It is also causing concern in Arab states hosting the refugees, which do not have resources to fill the gap and fear any end to UNRWA would be deeply destabilizing.

UNRWA, which provides healthcare, education and other services, has been pitched into crisis since Israel alleged that 12 of its 13,000 staff in Gaza were involved in the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel that precipitated the Israel-Hamas war, prompting donors to suspend funding.

UNRWA hopes donors will review the suspension once a preliminary report into the assertions is published in the next several weeks.

For Palestinians, UNRWA's importance goes beyond vital services. They view its existence as enmeshed with the preservation of their rights as refugees, especially their hope of returning to homes from which they or their ancestors fled or were expelled in the war over Israel's creation in 1948.

In the Burj al-Barajneh camp on the outskirts of Beirut, Raghida al-Arbaje said she depends on UNRWA to school two of her children and cover medical bills for a third who suffers from an eye condition.

"If there is no UNRWA, I can't do any of this," said Arbaje, 44, adding that the agency had also paid for cancer treatment for her late husband, who died five months ago.

A shanty of feebly constructed buildings and narrow allies, Burj al-Barajneh depends on UNRWA in many ways, including programs that offer $20 a day for labor - vital income for refugees who are barred from many jobs in Lebanon, Arbaje said.

She described the bleak situation for Palestinians in Lebanon, saying: "We are dead even as we live."

Appealing to donors to keep funding UNRWA, she added: "Don't kill our hope".

RIGHT OF RETURN

UNRWA - the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East - was set up in 1949 to provide refugees with vital services.

Today, it serves 5.9 million Palestinians across the region.

More than half a million children are enrolled in its schools. More than 7 million visits are made each year to its clinics, according to UNRWA's website.

"The role this agency has played in protecting the rights of Palestinian refugees is fundamental," UNRWA spokesperson Juliette Touma told Reuters in an interview.

UNRWA has said the allegations against the 12 staff - if true - are a betrayal of UN values and the people it serves.

The Hamas-led attack killed 1,200 people and abducting another 240, according to Israeli tallies. Since then, an Israeli offensive has killed more than 27,000 people in Gaza, according to health officials in Hamas-run Gaza.

Israel wants UNRWA shut down.

"It seeks to preserve the issue of Palestinian refugees. We must replace UNRWA with other UN agencies and other aid agencies, if we want to solve the Gaza problem as we plan to do," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Jan. 31.

In Jordan, Palestinians have held protests against any such move. "The Destruction of UNRWA will not pass ... Yes, to the right of return", declared signs held aloft at a Feb. 2 protest in Amman.

Hilmi Aqel, a refugee born in the Baqa'a Palestinian refugee camp, 20 km (12 miles) north of Amman, said his UNRWA ration card "proves that me and my children are refugees".

"It enshrines my right."

'CATASTROPHIC'

Arab states hosting the refugees have long upheld the Palestinians' right of return, rejecting any suggestion they should be resettled in the countries to which they fled in 1948.

In Lebanon, where UNRWA estimates up to 250,000 Palestinian refugees reside, the issue is infused with long-standing concerns about how the presence of the refugees affects Lebanon's sectarian balance.

Lebanese Social Affairs Minister Hector Hajjar said decisions by donor states to suspend aid were unfair and political, and the repercussions would be "catastrophic" for the Palestinians.

"If we deny the Palestinians this, what are we telling them? We are telling them to go die, or to go to extremism," he told Reuters in an interview. The decision would be destabilizing for Lebanese, as well as Palestinians and refugees from the war in neighboring Syria, he said.

In Jordan, the UNRWA crisis has touched on long-standing concerns. Jordan is home to some 2 million registered Palestinian refugees, most of whom have Jordanian citizenship. Officials fear any move to dismantle UNRWA would whittle away their right of return, shifting the burden onto Jordan.

Norway, a donor that has not cut its funding, has said it is reasonably optimistic some countries that had paused funding would resume payments, realizing the situation could not last long.

The United States has said UNRWA needs to make "fundamental changes" before it will resume funding.

Moussa Brahim Dirawi, a refugee in Burj al-Barajneh in Beirut, expressed fear for Palestinian children were UNRWA schools forced to shut down.

"You are contributing to making a whole generation ignorant. If you are not able to put your children in school, you would put them on the streets. What would the streets raise?" he said.



Iran Holds Military Drills as it Faces Rising Economic Pressures and Trump's Return

A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally-made drones during a military drill at an undisclosed location in Iran. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP)
A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally-made drones during a military drill at an undisclosed location in Iran. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP)
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Iran Holds Military Drills as it Faces Rising Economic Pressures and Trump's Return

A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally-made drones during a military drill at an undisclosed location in Iran. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP)
A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally-made drones during a military drill at an undisclosed location in Iran. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP)

Iran is reeling from a cratering economy and stinging military setbacks across its sphere of influence in the Middle East. Its bad times are likely to get worse once President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House with his policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran.

Facing difficulties at home and abroad, Iran last week began an unusual two-month-long military drill. It includes testing air defenses near a key nuclear facility and preparing for exercises in waterways vital to the global oil trade.

The military flexing seems aimed at projecting strength, but doubts about its power are high after the past year's setbacks.

The December overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad, who Iran supported for years with money and troops, was a major blow to its self-described “Axis of Resistance” across the region. The “axis” had already been hollowed out by Israel’s punishing offensives last year against two militant groups backed by Iran – Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel also attacked Iran directly on two occasions.

According to The AP, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard general based in Syria offered a blunt assessment this week. “I do not see it as a matter of pride that we lost Syria,” Gen. Behrouz Esbati said, according to an audio recording of a speech he gave that was leaked to the media. “We lost. We badly lost. We blew it.”

At home, Iran’s economy is in tatters.

The US and its allies have maintained stiff sanctions to deter it from developing nuclear weapons — and Iran's recent efforts to get them lifted through diplomacy have fallen flat. Pollution chokes the skies in the capital, Tehran, as power plants burn dirty fuel in their struggle to avoid outages during winter. And families are struggling to make ends meet as the Iranian currency, the rial, falls to record lows against the US dollar.

As these burdens rise, so does the likelihood of political protests, which have ignited nationwide in recent years over women's rights and the weak economy.

How Trump chooses to engage with Iran remains to be seen. But on Tuesday he left open the possibility of the US conducting preemptive airstrikes on nuclear sites where Iran is closer than ever to enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels.

“It’s a military strategy,” Trump told journalists at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida during a wide-ranging news conference. “I’m not answering questions on military strategy.”

Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, yet officials there increasingly suggest Tehran could pursue an atomic bomb.

Europe's view of Iran hardens. It's not just Trump or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a longtime foe of Tehran, that paint Iran's nuclear program as a major threat. French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking Monday to French ambassadors in Paris, described Iran as “the main strategic and security challenge for France, the Europeans, the entire region and well beyond.”

“The acceleration of its nuclear program is bringing us very close to the breaking point,” Macron said. “Its ballistic program threatens European soil and our interests."

While Europe had previously been seen as more conciliatory toward Iran, its attitude has hardened. That's likely because of what Macron described as Tehran's “assertive and fully identified military support” of Russia since it's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

France, as well as Germany and the United Kingdom, had been part of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Under that deal, Iran limited its enrichment of uranium and drastically reduced its stockpile in exchange for the lifting of crushing, United Nations-backed economic sanctions. Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, and with those UN sanctions lifted, it provided cover for China's to purchase oil from Iran.

But now France, Germany and the United Kingdom call Tehran's advances in its atomic program a ”nuclear escalation" that needs to be addressed. That raises the possibility of Western nations pushing for what's called a “snapback” of those UN sanctions on Iran, which could be catastrophic for the Iranian economy. That “snapback” power expires in October.

On Wednesday, Iran released a visiting Italian journalist, Cecilia Sala, after detaining her for three weeks — even though she had received the government's approval to report from there.

Sala's arrest came days after Italian authorities arrested an Iranian engineer accused by the US of supplying drone technology used in a January 2024 attack on a US outpost in Jordan that killed three American troops. The engineer remains in Italian custody.

- Iran holds military drills as worries grow

The length of the military drills started by Iran's armed forces and its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard may be unusual, but their intended message to the US and Israel — and to its domestic audience — is not. Iran is trying to show itself as capable of defending against any possible attack.

On Tuesday, Iran held air-defense drills around its underground nuclear enrichment facility in the city of Natanz. It claimed it could intercept a so-called “bunker buster” bomb designed to destroy such sites.

However, the drill did not involve any of its four advanced S-300 Russian air defense systems, which Israel targeted in its strikes on Iran. At least two are believed to have been damaged, and Israeli officials claim all have been taken out.

“Some of the US and Israeli reservations about using force to address Iran’s nuclear program have dissipated,” wrote Kenneth Katzman, a longtime Iran analyst for the US government who is now at the New York-based Soufan Center. “It appears likely that, at the very least, the Trump administration would not assertively dissuade Israel from striking Iranian facilities, even if the United States might decline to join the assault.”

There are other ways Iran could respond. This weekend, naval forces plan exercises in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran for years has threatened to close the strait — a narrow lane through which a fifth of global oil supplies are transported — and it has targeted oil tankers and other ships in those waters since 2019.

“Harassment and seizures are likely to remain the main tools of Iranian counteraction,” the private maritime security firm Ambrey warned Thursday.

Its allies may not be much help, though. The tempo of attacks on shipping lanes by Yemen's Houthis, long armed by Iran, have slowed. And Iran has growing reservations about the reliability of Russia.

In the recording of the speech by the Iranian general, Esbati, he alleges that Russia “turned off all radars” in Syria to allow an Israeli airstrike that hit a Guard intelligence center.

Esbati also said Iranian missiles “don't have so much of an impact” and that the US would retaliate against any attack targeting its bases in the region.

“For the time being and in this situation, dragging the region into a military operation does not agree (with the) interest of the resistance,” he says.