What Are the Security Deals Ukraine Is Discussing with Allies?

Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen (S), the Prime Minister's husband Bo Tengberg and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attend a memorial ceremony at the Field of Mars at Lychakiv Cemetery in Lviv, Friday 23 February 2024. (Ritzau Scanpix/via Reuters)
Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen (S), the Prime Minister's husband Bo Tengberg and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attend a memorial ceremony at the Field of Mars at Lychakiv Cemetery in Lviv, Friday 23 February 2024. (Ritzau Scanpix/via Reuters)
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What Are the Security Deals Ukraine Is Discussing with Allies?

Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen (S), the Prime Minister's husband Bo Tengberg and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attend a memorial ceremony at the Field of Mars at Lychakiv Cemetery in Lviv, Friday 23 February 2024. (Ritzau Scanpix/via Reuters)
Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen (S), the Prime Minister's husband Bo Tengberg and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attend a memorial ceremony at the Field of Mars at Lychakiv Cemetery in Lviv, Friday 23 February 2024. (Ritzau Scanpix/via Reuters)

Denmark became the latest NATO member to sign a 10-year agreement on security cooperation with Ukraine on Friday, the eve of the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion.

Italy and the Netherlands said they were planning to sign soon.

WHAT ARE THESE SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS?

The Group of Seven wealthy nations signed a joint declaration at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July last year committing to establish "long-term security commitments and arrangements" with Ukraine that would be negotiated bilaterally.

The deals would promise continued provision of military and security aid, support to develop Ukraine's defense industrial base, training Ukrainian soldiers, intelligence-sharing and cooperation, and support for cyber defense.

The sides would also immediately hold consultations with Kyiv to determine "appropriate next steps" in the event of a "future Russian armed attack".

More than 30 countries have since signed the declaration.

WOULD THIS BE A SUBSTITUTE FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP?

Kyiv says the arrangements should contain important and concrete security commitments, but that the agreements would in no way to replace its strategic goal of joining NATO. The Western alliance regards any attack launched on one of its 31 members as an attack on all under its Article Five clause.

"There has been speculation that by concluding enough of these agreements, we do not need membership. False. We need NATO membership," said Ihor Zhovkva, the Ukrainian president's foreign affairs adviser.

WHO HAS SIGNED DEALS SO FAR?

Germany and France signed agreements on security commitments with Ukraine when President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited Berlin and Paris earlier this month.

Britain in January became the first country to sign one of the security agreements with Ukraine for a term of 10 years, by which time Kyiv hopes to be inside NATO.

London said the deal formalized a range of support that it "has been and will continue to provide for Ukraine's security, including intelligence-sharing, cyber security, medical and military training, and defense industrial cooperation".

WHICH OTHER COUNTRIES ARE SET TO SIGN DEALS?

Ukraine has held at least two rounds of talks on the agreements with all the G7 countries, Zhovkva said.

More than 10 countries are in the active stage of talks or potentially starting soon, he added. The additional countries include Romania, Poland and the Netherlands.

The Netherlands said on Friday it would soon sign a 10-year security deal with Ukraine for continued military support, help in reconstruction and the improvement of its cyberdefenses.

"Without Western support, Ukraine as we know it will cease to exist," Foreign Minister Hanke Bruins Slot said. "The Russian threat will move closer, putting pressure on the stability and safety of our continent."

WHAT DOES UKRAINE WANT FROM THE DEALS?

Ukraine's Zhovkva singled out as "very important" the provision in the British deal under which consultations could be held within 24 hours to provide swift and sustained aid.

This, he said, went beyond the "infamous" 1994 Budapest Memorandum under which Ukraine was provided with security "assurances" by Britain, Russia and the United States in return for relinquishing nuclear weapons from its territory.

"We do not want to repeat the infamous experience of the Budapest declaration, which remained just a declaration," he said.

Zhovkva said there was no need for Ukraine to rush to agree deals. "I don't need 10 or 15 agreements concluded within one week. Rather, I would have this same 10 or 15 agreements deeply thought over, well-negotiated and with concrete signs of long-term and varied support for Ukraine."



Biden's Withdrawal Injects Uncertainty Into Wars, Trade Disputes and Other Foreign Policy Challenges

FILE - President Joe Biden speaks at a news conference July 11, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)
FILE - President Joe Biden speaks at a news conference July 11, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)
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Biden's Withdrawal Injects Uncertainty Into Wars, Trade Disputes and Other Foreign Policy Challenges

FILE - President Joe Biden speaks at a news conference July 11, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)
FILE - President Joe Biden speaks at a news conference July 11, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

Joe Biden's withdrawal from the US presidential race injects greater uncertainty into the world at a time when Western leaders are grappling with wars in Ukraine and Gaza, a more assertive China in Asia and the rise of the far-right in Europe.
During a five-decade career in politics, Biden developed extensive personal relationships with multiple foreign leaders that none of the potential replacements on the Democratic ticket can match. After his announcement, messages of support and gratitude for his years of service poured in from near and far, said The Associated Press.
The scope of foreign policy challenges facing the next US president makes clear how consequential what happens in Washington is for the rest of the planet. Here's a look at some of them.
ISRAEL With Vice President Kamala Harris being eyed as a potential replacement for Biden, Israelis on Sunday scrambled to understand what her candidacy would mean for their country as it confronts increasing global isolation over its military campaign against Hamas.
Israel’s left-wing Haaretz daily newspaper ran a story scrutinizing Harris’ record of support for Israel, pointing to her reputation as Biden’s “bad cop" who has vocally admonished Israel for its offensive in Gaza. In recent months, she has gone further than Biden in calling for a cease-fire, denouncing Israel's invasion of Rafah and expressing horror over the civilian death toll in Gaza.
“With Biden leaving, Israel has lost perhaps the last Zionist president,” said Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York. “A new Democratic candidate will upend the dynamic.”
Biden's staunch defense of Israel since Hamas' Oct. 7 attack has its roots in his half-century of support for the country as a senator, vice president, then president. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant thanked Biden for his “unwavering support of Israel over the years.”
“Your steadfast backing, especially during the war, has been invaluable,” Gallant wrote on X.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog praised Biden as a “symbol of the unbreakable bond between our two peoples" and a “true ally of the Jewish people.” There was no immediate reaction from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an ally of former President Donald Trump whose history of cordial relations with Biden has come under strain during the Israel-Hamas war.
UKRAINE Any Democratic candidate would likely continue Biden’s legacy of staunch military support for Ukraine. But frustration with the Biden administration has grown in Ukraine and Europe over the slow pace of US aid and restrictions on the use of Western weapons.
“Most Europeans realize that Ukraine is increasingly going to be their burden,” said Sudha David-Wilp, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund, a research institute. “Everyone is trying to get ready for all the possible outcomes.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X that he respected the “tough but strong decision” by Biden to drop out of the campaign, and he thanked Biden for his help “in preventing (Russian President Vladimir) Putin from occupying our country.”
Trump has promised to end Russia's war on Ukraine in one day if he is elected — a prospect that has raised fears in Ukraine that Russia might be allowed to keep the territory it occupies.
Trump's vice presidential pick, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, is among Congress’ most vocal opponents of US aid for Ukraine and has further raised the stakes for Kyiv.
Russia, meanwhile, dismissed the importance of the race, insisting that no matter what happened, Moscow would press on in Ukraine.
“We need to pay attention,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying by a pro-Russian tabloid. “We need to watch what will happen and do our own thing."
CHINA In recent months, both Biden and Trump have tried to show voters who can best stand up to Beijing’s growing military strength and belligerence and protect US businesses and workers from low-priced Chinese imports. Biden has hiked tariffs on electric vehicles from China, and Trump has promised to implement tariffs of 60% on all Chinese products.
Trump’s “America First” doctrine exacerbated tensions with Beijing. But disputes with the geopolitical rival and economic colossus over wars, trade, technology and security continued into Biden's term.
China's official reaction to the US presidential race has been careful. The official Xinhua news agency treated the story of Biden’s decision as relatively minor. The editor of the party-run Global Times newspaper, Hu Xijin, downplayed the impact of Biden's withdrawal.
“Whoever becomes the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party may be the same," he wrote on X. “Voters are divided into two groups, Trump voters and Trump haters.”
IRAN With Iran's proxies across the Middle East increasingly entangled in the Israel-Hamas war, the US confronts a region in disarray.
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis struck Tel Aviv for the first time last week, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes inside war-torn Yemen. Simmering tensions and cross-border attacks between Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group and the Israeli military have raised fears of an all-out regional conflagration.
Hamas, which also receives support from Iran, continues to fight Israel even nine months into a war that has killed 38,000 Palestinians and displaced over 80% of Gaza's population.
The US and its allies have accused Iran of expanding its nuclear program and enriching uranium to an unprecedented 60% level, near-weapons-grade levels.
After then-President Trump in 2018 withdrew from Tehran’s landmark nuclear deal with world powers, Biden said he wanted to reverse his predecessor's hawkish anti-Iran stance. But the Biden administration has maintained severe economic sanctions against Iran and overseen failed attempts to renegotiate the agreement.
The sudden death of Ebrahim Raisi — the supreme leader's hard-line protege — in a helicopter crash vaulted a new reformist to the presidency in Iran, generating new opportunities and risks. Masoud Pezeshkian has said he wants to help Iran open up to the world but has maintained a defiant tone against the US.
EUROPE AND NATO Many Europeans were happy to see Trump go after his years of disparaging the European Union and undermining NATO. Trump's seemingly dismissive attitude toward European allies in last month's presidential debate did nothing to assuage those concerns.
Biden, on the other hand, has supported close American relations with bloc leaders.
That closeness was on stark display after Biden's decision to bow out of the race. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called his choice “probably the most difficult one in your life.” The newly installed British prime minister, Keir Starmer, said he respected Biden’s “decision based on what he believes is in the best interests of the American people.”
There was also an outpouring of affection from Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris, who called Biden a “proud American with an Irish soul."
The question of whether NATO can maintain its momentum in supporting Ukraine and checking the ambitions of other authoritarian states hangs in the balance of this presidential election, analysts say.
“They don't want to see Donald Trump as president. So there's quite a bit of relief but also quite a bit of nervousness" about Biden's decision to drop out, said Jeremy Shapiro, research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Like many in the United States, but perhaps more so, they are really quite confused.”
MEXICO The close relationship between Mexico and the US has been marked in recent years by disagreements over trade, energy and climate change. Since President Andrés Manuel López Obrador took power in 2018, both countries have found common ground on the issue of migration – with Mexico making it more difficult for migrants to cross its country to the US border and the US not pressing on other issues.
The López Obrador administration kept that policy while Trump was president and continued it into Biden's term.
On Friday, Mexico’s president called Trump “a friend” and said he would write to him to warn him against pledging to close the border or blaming migrants for bringing drugs into the United States.
“I am going to prove to him that migrants don’t carry drugs to the United States,” he said, adding that “closing the border won’t solve anything, and anyway, it can’t be done.”