Economy Another Victim of War in Impoverished Sudan

Destruction in Gaza caused by Israeli airstrikes (AP)
Destruction in Gaza caused by Israeli airstrikes (AP)
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Economy Another Victim of War in Impoverished Sudan

Destruction in Gaza caused by Israeli airstrikes (AP)
Destruction in Gaza caused by Israeli airstrikes (AP)

Before the Sudanese army and paramilitary fighters turned their guns on each other last year, Ahmed used to sell one of Sudan's main exports: gum arabic, a vital ingredient for global industry.

Now he's out of business, and his story encapsulates the broader economic collapse of Sudan during 10 months of war.

Since combat between two rival generals began on April 15, Ahmed has been at the fighters' mercy.

"When the war began, I had a stock of gum arabic in a warehouse south of Khartoum that was intended for export," Ahmed told AFP, asking to use only his first name for fear of retaliation.

"To get it out I had to pay huge sums to the Rapid Support Forces," the paramilitaries commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Daglo who are at war with the Sudanese Armed Forces led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

"I had to pay multiple times in areas under their control, before my cargo got to areas controlled by the government," Ahmed said.

But the government -- loyal to the army -- "then demanded I pay taxes" on the product, an emulsifying agent used in everything from soft drinks to chewing gum.

When the trucks finally made it to Port Sudan for export on the Red Sea, "authorities again asked for new taxes, and I had to pay storage fees six times more than before the war", Ahmed said.

His gum arabic -- like many other Sudanese products -- never made it onto a ship. According to Sudan's port authorities, international trade fell 23 percent last year.

The finance ministry, which didn't set a national budget for 2023 or 2024 and has foregone quarterly reports, recently raised the exchange rate for imports and exports from 650 Sudanese pounds to 950.

But that is still far below the currency's real value.

With most banks out of service, the only exchange rate that matters to ordinary Sudanese is on the black market, where the dollar currently goes for around 1,200 Sudanese pounds.

"It's a sign of the destruction of the Sudanese economy," former Sudanese Chamber of Commerce head al-Sadiq Jalal told AFP.

To make matters worse, a communications blackout since early February has hampered online transactions -- which Sudanese relied on to survive.

The war has led industries to cease production. Others were destroyed. Businesses and food stocks have been looted.

The World Bank in September said "widespread destruction of Sudan's economic foundations has set the country's development back by several decades".

The International Monetary Fund has predicted that even after the fighting ends, "years of reconstruction" await the northeast African country.

Sudan suffered under a crippled economy for decades and was already one of the world's poorest countries before the war.

Under the regime of strongman Omar al-Bashir, international sanctions throttled development, corruption was rampant, and South Sudan split in 2011 with most of the country's oil production.

Bashir's ouster by the military in 2019 following mass protests led to a fragile transition to civilian rule accompanied by signs of economic renewal and international acceptance.

A 2021 coup by Burhan and Daglo, before they turned on each other, began a new economic collapse when the World Bank and the United States suspended vital international aid.

More than six million of Sudan's 48 million people have been internally displaced by the war, and more than half the population needs humanitarian aid to survive, according to the United Nations.

Thousands of people have been killed, including between 10,000 and 15,000 in a single city in the western Darfur region, according to UN experts.

Now the indirect death toll is also rising.

Aid agencies have long warned of impending famine, and the UN's World Food Program is "already receiving reports of people dying of starvation", the agency's Sudan director Eddie Rowe said in early February.

The Sudanese state "is completely absent from the scene" in all sectors, economist Haitham Fathy told AFP.

Chief among those is agriculture, which could have helped stave off hunger.

Before the war, agriculture generated 35-40 percent of Sudan's gross domestic product, according to the World Bank, and employed 70-80 percent of the workforce in rural areas, the International Fund for Agricultural Development said.

But the war has left more than 60 percent of the nation's agricultural land out of commission, according to Sudanese research organization Fikra for Studies and Development.

In the wheat-growing state of al-Jazira, where RSF fighters took over swathes of farmland south of Khartoum, farmers have been unable to tend their crops. They saw their livelihoods wither away.

From the wheat fields to Ahmed's gum arabic warehouse, the story is the same.

His savings spent, his stock gone and his future bleak, Ahmed -- like much of Sudan's business class -- has closed up shop.



New Mpox Strain Is Changing Fast; African Scientists Are ‘Working Blind’ to Respond 

Dr. Robert Musole, medical director of the Kavumu hospital (R) consults an infant suffering from a severe form of mpox at the Kavumu hospital, 30 km north of Bukavu in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, August 24, 2024. (AFP)
Dr. Robert Musole, medical director of the Kavumu hospital (R) consults an infant suffering from a severe form of mpox at the Kavumu hospital, 30 km north of Bukavu in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, August 24, 2024. (AFP)
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New Mpox Strain Is Changing Fast; African Scientists Are ‘Working Blind’ to Respond 

Dr. Robert Musole, medical director of the Kavumu hospital (R) consults an infant suffering from a severe form of mpox at the Kavumu hospital, 30 km north of Bukavu in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, August 24, 2024. (AFP)
Dr. Robert Musole, medical director of the Kavumu hospital (R) consults an infant suffering from a severe form of mpox at the Kavumu hospital, 30 km north of Bukavu in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, August 24, 2024. (AFP)

Scientists studying the new mpox strain that has spread out of Democratic Republic of Congo say the virus is changing faster than expected, and often in areas where experts lack the funding and equipment to properly track it.

That means there are numerous unknowns about the virus itself, its severity and how it is transmitting, complicating the response, half a dozen scientists in Africa, Europe and the United States told Reuters.

Mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, has been a public health problem in parts of Africa since 1970, but received little global attention until it surged internationally in 2022, prompting the World Health Organization to declare a global health emergency. That declaration ended 10 months later.

A new strain of the virus, known as clade Ib, has the world's attention again after the WHO declared a new health emergency.

The strain is a mutated version of clade I, a form of mpox spread by contact with infected animals that has been endemic in Congo for decades. Mpox typically causes flu-like symptoms and pus-filled lesions and can kill.

Congo has had more than 18,000 suspected clade I and clade Ib mpox cases and 615 deaths this year, according to the WHO. There have also been 222 confirmed clade Ib cases in four African countries in the last month, plus a case each in Sweden and Thailand in people with a travel history in Africa.

"I worry that in Africa, we are working blindly," said Dr. Dimie Ogoina, an infectious diseases expert at Niger Delta University Hospital in Nigeria who chairs the WHO's mpox emergency committee. He first raised the alarm about potential sexual transmission of mpox in 2017, now an accepted route of spread for the virus.

"We don’t understand our outbreak very well, and if we don't understand our outbreak very well, we will have difficulty addressing the problem in terms of transmission dynamics, the severity of the disease, risk factors of the disease," Ogoina said. "And I worry about the fact that the virus seems to be mutating and producing new strains."

He said it took clade IIb in Nigeria five years or more to evolve enough for sustained spread among humans, sparking the 2022 global outbreak. Clade Ib has done the same thing in less than a year.

MUTATING 'MORE RAPIDLY'

Mpox is an orthopoxvirus, from the family that causes smallpox. Population-wide protection from a global smallpox vaccine campaign 50 years ago has waned, as the vaccinating stopped when the disease was eradicated.

Genetic sequencing of clade Ib infections, which the WHO estimates emerged mid-September 2023, show they carry a mutation known as APOBEC3, a signature of adaptation in humans.

The virus that causes mpox has typically been fairly stable and slow to mutate, but APOBEC-driven mutations can accelerate viral evolution, said Dr. Miguel Paredes, who is studying the evolution of mpox and other viruses at Fred Hutchison Cancer Center in Seattle.

"All the human-to-human cases of mpox have this APOBEC signature of mutations, which means that it's mutating a little bit more rapidly than we would expect," he said.

Paredes and other scientists said a response was complicated by several mpox outbreaks happening at once.

In the past, mpox was predominantly acquired through human contact with infected animals. That is still driving a rise in Congo in clade I cases – also known as clade Ia - likely due in part to deforestation and increased consumption of bushmeat, scientists said.

The mutated versions, clade Ib and IIb, can now essentially be considered a sexually transmitted disease, said Dr. Salim Abdool Karim, a South African epidemiologist and chair of the Africa CDC’s mpox advisory committee. Most of the mutated clade Ib cases are among adults, driven at first by an epidemic among female sex workers in South Kivu, Congo.

The virus also can spread through close contact with an infected person, which is likely how clusters of children have been infected with clade Ib, particularly in Burundi and in eastern Congo’s displacement camps, where crowded living conditions may be contributing.

Children, pregnant women and people with weakened immune systems or other illnesses may be at greater risk of serious mpox disease and death, say the WHO and mpox scientists.

Clade I has typically caused more severe disease, with fatality rates of 4%-11%, compared to around 1% for clade II. Ogoina said data from Congo suggests few have died of the new Ib version, but he feared some data is being mixed up.

More research is urgently needed, but three teams tracking mpox outbreaks in Africa say they cannot even access chemicals needed for diagnostic tests. Clade Ib can also be missed by some diagnostic tests.

Planning a response, including vaccination strategies, without this is difficult, the scientists said.

Karim said around half of cases in eastern Congo, where Ib is particularly prevalent, are only being diagnosed by doctors, with no laboratory confirmation.

Getting samples to labs is difficult because the healthcare system is already under pressure, he said. And around 750,000 people have been displaced amid fighting between the M23 rebel group and the government.

Many African laboratories cannot get the supplies they need, said Dr. Emmanuel Nakoune, an mpox expert at the Institut Pasteur in Bangui, Central African Republic, which also has clade Ia cases.

"This is not a luxury," he said, but necessary to track deadly outbreaks.