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Do Tensions in the Red Sea Affect Egyptian-Iranian Rapprochement?

The foreign ministers of Egypt and Iran meet in Geneva. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
The foreign ministers of Egypt and Iran meet in Geneva. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
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Do Tensions in the Red Sea Affect Egyptian-Iranian Rapprochement?

The foreign ministers of Egypt and Iran meet in Geneva. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
The foreign ministers of Egypt and Iran meet in Geneva. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry met his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Tuesday on the sidelines of the high-level meetings of the Human Rights Council sessions in Geneva.

The two ministers met as part of efforts to continue rapprochement between their countries. They discussed bilateral relations and developments related to Israel’s war on Gaza.

Shoukry conveyed Cairo’s “deep concern over the expansion of military tensions in the southern Red Sea region, and the direct harm to the interests of a large number of countries, including Egypt,” according to a statement by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry.

The statement raises questions about the extent the impact the tensions in the Red Sea will have on rapprochement efforts between Cairo and Tehran.

The attacks in the Red Sea are being carried out by the Houthi militias in Yemen that are backed Iran.

A number of official Egyptian-Iranian meetings have taken place recently, including talks between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi on the sidelines of the joint Arab-Islamic summit in Riyadh in November.

Regarding the ongoing war in Gaza, Shoukry told Abdollahian that tensions in the Red Sea have resulted in an unprecedented threat to international shipping navigation in the Suez Canal, leading to direct harm to the interests of a large number of countries, including Egypt.

He emphasized the need for cooperation to support stability and peace and eliminate hotbeds of tension and conflicts, according to the Ministry statement.

In January, Bloomberg reported that navigation traffic in the Suez Canal declined by 41 percent from its peak in 2023, amid escalating tensions in the Red Sea due to the Houthis’ targeting of ships as part of what they say is support to Gaza.

The official spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, Ahmed Abu Zeid, said Shoukry and Abdollahian underscored their countries’ determination to restore the normal bilateral relations.

Expert in Iranian affairs at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Mohammed Abbas Naji told Asharq Al-Awsat that despite the Egyptian-Iranian rapprochement, Cairo was for now monitoring Iran’s behavior in the region, which does not seem to have changed.

He expressed Egyptian reservations and fears over Tehran’s approach in the region and the ongoing threats posed by its proxies in the Red Sea.

These concerns were also voiced in the official Ministry statement following the meeting between Shoukry and Abdollahian.

In May, the Iranian president requested his country’s ministry of Foreign Affairs to take the necessary measures to strengthen relations with Egypt. The two countries had severed diplomatic relations in 1979. They were reestablished after 11 years, but at the level of Chargé d’Affaires.

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On Lebanon Border, Israel and Hezbollah’s Deadly Game of Patience

Smoke is seen as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is intercepted following its launch from Lebanon, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, at Kibbutz Eilon in northern Israel, July 23, 2024. (Reuters)
Smoke is seen as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is intercepted following its launch from Lebanon, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, at Kibbutz Eilon in northern Israel, July 23, 2024. (Reuters)
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On Lebanon Border, Israel and Hezbollah’s Deadly Game of Patience

Smoke is seen as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is intercepted following its launch from Lebanon, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, at Kibbutz Eilon in northern Israel, July 23, 2024. (Reuters)
Smoke is seen as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is intercepted following its launch from Lebanon, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, at Kibbutz Eilon in northern Israel, July 23, 2024. (Reuters)

In deserted villages and communities near the southern Lebanon border, Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters have watched each other for months, shifting and adapting in a battle for the upper hand while they wait to see if a full scale war will come.

Ever since the start of the Gaza war last October, the two sides have exchanged daily barrages of rockets, artillery, missile fire and air strikes in a standoff that has just stopped short of full-scale war.

Tens of thousands have been evacuated from both sides of the border, and hopes that children may be able to return for the start of the new school year in September appear to have been dashed following an announcement by Israeli Education Minister Yoav Kisch on Tuesday that conditions would not allow it.

"The war is almost the same for the past nine months," Lieutenant Colonel Dotan, an Israeli officer, who could only be identified by his first name. "We have good days of hitting Hezbollah and bad days where they hit us. It's almost the same, all year, all the nine months."

As the summer approaches its peak, the smoke trails of drones and rockets in the sky have become a daily sight, with missiles regularly setting off brush fires in the thickly wooded hills along the border.

Israeli strikes have killed nearly 350 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and more than 100 civilians, including medics, children and journalists, while 10 Israeli civilians, a foreign agricultural worker and 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed.

Even so, as the cross border firing has continued, Israeli forces have been training for a possible offensive in Lebanon which would dramatically increase the risk of a wider regional war, potentially involving Iran and the United States.

That risk was underlined at the weekend when the Yemen-based Houthis, a militia which like Hezbollah is backed by Iran, sent a drone to Tel Aviv where it caused a blast that killed a man and prompted Israel to launch a retaliatory raid the next day.

Standing in his home kibbutz of Eilon, where only about 150 farmers and security guards remain from a normal population of 1,100, Lt. Colonet Dotan said the two sides have been testing each other for months, in a constantly evolving tactical battle.

"This war taught us patience," said Dotan. "In the Middle East, you need patience."

He said Israeli troops had seen an increasing use of Iranian drones, of a type frequently seen in Ukraine, as well as Russian-made Kornet anti tank missiles which were increasingly targeting houses as Israeli tank forces adapted their own tactics in response.

"Hezbollah is a fast-learning organization and they understood that UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) are the next big thing and so they went and bought and got trained in UAVs," he said.

Israel had responded by adapting its Iron Dome air defense system and focusing its own operations on weakening Hezbollah's organizational structure by attacking its experienced commanders, such as Ali Jaafar Maatuk, a field commander in the elite Radwan forces unit who was killed last week.

"So that's another weak point we found. We target them and we look for them on a daily basis," he said.

Even so, as the months have passed, the wait has not been easy for Israeli troops brought up in a doctrine of maneuver and rapid offensive operations.

"When you're on defense, you can't defeat the enemy. We understand that, we have no expectations," he said, "So we have to wait. It's a patience game."