Do Tensions in the Red Sea Affect Egyptian-Iranian Rapprochement?

The foreign ministers of Egypt and Iran meet in Geneva. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
The foreign ministers of Egypt and Iran meet in Geneva. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
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Do Tensions in the Red Sea Affect Egyptian-Iranian Rapprochement?

The foreign ministers of Egypt and Iran meet in Geneva. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)
The foreign ministers of Egypt and Iran meet in Geneva. (Egyptian Foreign Ministry)

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry met his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Tuesday on the sidelines of the high-level meetings of the Human Rights Council sessions in Geneva.

The two ministers met as part of efforts to continue rapprochement between their countries. They discussed bilateral relations and developments related to Israel’s war on Gaza.

Shoukry conveyed Cairo’s “deep concern over the expansion of military tensions in the southern Red Sea region, and the direct harm to the interests of a large number of countries, including Egypt,” according to a statement by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry.

The statement raises questions about the extent the impact the tensions in the Red Sea will have on rapprochement efforts between Cairo and Tehran.

The attacks in the Red Sea are being carried out by the Houthi militias in Yemen that are backed Iran.

A number of official Egyptian-Iranian meetings have taken place recently, including talks between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi on the sidelines of the joint Arab-Islamic summit in Riyadh in November.

Regarding the ongoing war in Gaza, Shoukry told Abdollahian that tensions in the Red Sea have resulted in an unprecedented threat to international shipping navigation in the Suez Canal, leading to direct harm to the interests of a large number of countries, including Egypt.

He emphasized the need for cooperation to support stability and peace and eliminate hotbeds of tension and conflicts, according to the Ministry statement.

In January, Bloomberg reported that navigation traffic in the Suez Canal declined by 41 percent from its peak in 2023, amid escalating tensions in the Red Sea due to the Houthis’ targeting of ships as part of what they say is support to Gaza.

The official spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, Ahmed Abu Zeid, said Shoukry and Abdollahian underscored their countries’ determination to restore the normal bilateral relations.

Expert in Iranian affairs at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Mohammed Abbas Naji told Asharq Al-Awsat that despite the Egyptian-Iranian rapprochement, Cairo was for now monitoring Iran’s behavior in the region, which does not seem to have changed.

He expressed Egyptian reservations and fears over Tehran’s approach in the region and the ongoing threats posed by its proxies in the Red Sea.

These concerns were also voiced in the official Ministry statement following the meeting between Shoukry and Abdollahian.

In May, the Iranian president requested his country’s ministry of Foreign Affairs to take the necessary measures to strengthen relations with Egypt. The two countries had severed diplomatic relations in 1979. They were reestablished after 11 years, but at the level of Chargé d’Affaires.



Biden Will Step Aside in the 2024 Race. What Happens Next?

A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)
A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)
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Biden Will Step Aside in the 2024 Race. What Happens Next?

A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)
A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)

President Joe Biden said on Sunday he would withdraw from the 2024 presidential election race, putting the United States into uncharted territory.

Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee.

Before Biden's decision was made, Reuters spoke to Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think-tank, a Democratic National Committee member and author of the book "Primary Politics" about the presidential nominating process, who explained how the process could work. Reuters also spoke to legal experts and Democratic Party officials.

Q: WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

A: Biden has spent the last several months accruing nearly 4,000 Democratic delegates by winning primary elections in US states and territories.

Those delegates would normally vote for him to be the party's official presidential nominee at the Democratic National Convention, which is to take place Aug. 19-22, but the rules do not bind or force them to do so. Delegates can vote with their conscience, which means they could throw their vote to someone else.

By stepping aside, Biden is effectively "releasing" his delegates, potentially sparking a competition among other Democratic candidates to become the nominee.

Within hours of Biden's announcement, Harris' allies were working the phones - calling delegates and party chairs to get their backing, sources told Reuters.

Q: WHO COULD REPLACE BIDEN?

A: Several candidates could step into the fray.

Harris is at the top of the list, but she has had her own problems after a rocky start as vice president and poor polling numbers. The US Constitution dictates that the vice president becomes president if the president dies or becomes incapacitated, but it does not weigh in on an inter-party process for choosing a nominee.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker have all been floated as possible replacements. Up until now they have been Biden supporters working to help get him elected, and Whitmer has said she supports Harris.

Q: HOW WILL A NOMINEE BE CHOSEN?

A: There could be a free-for-all of sorts between the Democratic heavyweights vying for the job.

According to Ballotpedia, there are expected to be some 4,672 delegates in 2024, including 3,933 pledged delegates and 739 so-called superdelegates - senior party members.

In order to secure the nomination, a candidate would need to get a majority - that is, more votes than all the others combined.

That's what Harris' allies are trying to do right now - secure the pledged support of 1,969 delegates, and shut down any competition.

If no one achieves that, then there would be a "brokered convention" where the delegates act as free agents and negotiate with the party leadership. Rules would be established and there would be roll-call votes for names placed into nomination.

It could take several rounds of voting for someone to get a majority and become the nominee. The last brokered convention when Democrats failed to nominate a candidate on the first ballot was in 1952.

WHAT HAPPENS TO BIDEN'S CAMPAIGN CASH?

The Biden-Harris campaign had $91 million in the bank at the end of May, but experts on campaign finance law disagree on how readily the money could change hands.

Because Harris is also on the campaign filing documents, many experts believe the money could be transferred over to her if she is on the ticket. There is some debate about whether Biden would need to be officially nominated first as the party's candidate before a transfer could be made.