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Türkiye, Iran and Morocco Increase their Influence in the Sahel  

Nigerien security officers face demonstrators gathered in front of the French base in Niamey on September 2. (AFP)
Nigerien security officers face demonstrators gathered in front of the French base in Niamey on September 2. (AFP)
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Türkiye, Iran and Morocco Increase their Influence in the Sahel  

Nigerien security officers face demonstrators gathered in front of the French base in Niamey on September 2. (AFP)
Nigerien security officers face demonstrators gathered in front of the French base in Niamey on September 2. (AFP)

Türkiye, Iran and Morocco are stepping up their initiatives towards ruling military regimes in the African Sahel, seeking to diversify their partners, in the wake of France's withdrawal from the region.

Standing in front of the Burkina Faso television cameras, the director of the Turkish Space Agency displayed a catalog of fighter planes and combat helicopters, which is tempting for military regimes fighting terrorist groups, AFP said in a report on Monday.

The Burkinabe Foreign Minister, Karamoko Jean Marie Traoré, then reminded him of one of the mantras of the Sahelian regimes whose armies are underequipped: “For us it is a question of developing endogenous capacities in order to reduce our dependence.”

They are dependent on foreign forces, notably from France and other Western countries, which deployed in the region more than a decade ago and are reluctant to deliver offensive equipment to armies accused of committing abuses against civilian populations.

And while the French troops were packing their bags to leave the Sahel region, combat drones delivered by Türkiye became the centerpieces of Mali and Burkina Faso’s armies, which are both engaged in conflicts.

In early 2024, Mali received a new batch of Turkish Baykar drones, prized for their performance, earning the CEO of the manufacturing company, Haluk Bayraktar, a decoration in Ouagadougou in April bestowed by Burkina's strongman, Captain Ibrahim Traoré.

“The defense sector is the driving force behind the Turkish foreign policy in African countries,” said Federico Donelli, a political scientist and author of the book “Turkey in Africa.”

He explained that while Moscow is imposing itself as the main ally of military regimes in the Sahel region, Ankara is pursuing an “invasive” policy by trying to position itself as an alternative to both the Europeans and Russia.

According to the Institute for International Political Studies – ISPI, former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu “was the first high-level international figure to meet the military council in Mali after the August 2020 coup.”

It added that Ankara has adopted a conciliatory position with the military council in Niger, which borders Libya, where Ankara has many interests.

Ankara is also developing a project for a trans-Saharan corridor linking the Gulf of Guinea countries to Algeria, another North African stronghold of Turkish investment, according to Donelli.

Competing with Morocco, Iran

Morocco had kicked off a rival project. In September, Rabat said it offers to “make its road, port and rail infrastructures available to the Sahel countries, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger,” to strengthen their international trade.

In January 2024, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso said they withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

“Türkiye has military capabilities. We have had excellent relations with Morocco since independence and they are more about economic development,” according to a government source in Niger.

Morocco and Türkiye, which enjoy longstanding influence in the region, could face new competition from Iran.

Since 2020, Tehran has increased its influence in the region, particularly amid the coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

In October, Tehran signed several cooperation agreements with Burkina Faso in the fields of energy, urban planning, higher education and construction.

At the end of January, Tehran, a producer of combat drones, announced the establishment of two universities in Mali, and the signing of various cooperation agreements.

Thierry Coville from the Paris-based Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) said the Iranians sign dozens of agreements and none of them work. “They don't have the funding to support deals, or to compete seriously with Türkiye or Saudi Arabia,” he added.

But could Iran, which has increased its production of enriched uranium to 60%, eventually covet the uranium reserves of Niger that have been exploited by the French company Orano?

“This is our resource; we can sell it to anyone we want,” said a Nigerian government source.

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Israel Wary of Egypt's 'Military Infrastructure' in Sinai: Peace Treaty at Risk?

Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)
Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)
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Israel Wary of Egypt's 'Military Infrastructure' in Sinai: Peace Treaty at Risk?

Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)
Egyptian army chief Ahmed Khalifa inspects troops near Israel's border late last year. (Military spokesman)

Israel has voiced growing concerns over Egypt’s military presence in the Sinai Peninsula, fearing a potential escalation between the two sides amid the ongoing Gaza war.

Israeli media reports said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has asked both Washington and Cairo to dismantle what it describes as a “military infrastructure” established by the Egyptian army in Sinai.

However, an informed Egyptian source and experts cited by Asharq Al-Awsat insisted that Egypt has not violated its peace treaty with Israel. They argued that Cairo’s military movements are a response to Israeli breaches of the agreement.

Israel’s Israel Hayom newspaper, citing a senior Israeli security official, reported that Egypt’s military buildup in Sinai constitutes a “major violation” of the security annex of the peace treaty.

The official said the issue is a top priority for Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, stressing that Israel “will not accept this situation” amid what it views as Egypt’s growing military footprint in the peninsula.

The official added that the issue goes beyond the deployment of Egyptian forces in Sinai exceeding the quotas set under the military annex of the Camp David Accords.

The real concern, he said, lies in Egypt’s continued military buildup in the peninsula, which Israel views as an irreversible step.

Moreover, he stressed that while Israel is not seeking to amend its peace treaty with Egypt or redeploy troops along the border, it believes the current situation requires urgent action to prevent a potential escalation.

Egypt-Israel relations have not seen such tensions since the outbreak of the Gaza war, particularly after Israel violated a ceasefire agreement with Hamas brokered primarily by Egypt. Israeli forces resumed airstrikes on Gaza last month and failed to fulfill their commitments to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor and Palestinian border crossings.

A senior Egyptian source dismissed Israel’s accusations, telling Asharq Al-Awsat that “these repeated Israeli pretexts ignore the fact that Israeli forces have violated the peace treaty, seizing control of areas where Egypt objects to their presence without the necessary coordination with Cairo.”

Egypt has the right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its national security against any threats, emphasized the source.

“Nevertheless, Cairo remains fully committed to the peace treaty and has no intention of aggression against any party,” it added.

Israeli forces seized control of the Gaza-Egypt border, including the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah crossing, in May 2024. Israel has accused Egypt of not doing enough to stop weapons smuggling into Gaza through border tunnels—an allegation Cairo has denied.

Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas, which Israel later broke, Israeli forces were supposed to begin withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor on March 1, completing the pullout within eight days. However, Israel failed to do so and instead resumed airstrikes on Gaza.

Israel also announced the creation of an administration aimed at facilitating the “voluntary departure” of Gaza residents, a move Cairo strongly rejected and formally condemned.

Egypt has insisted that Palestinians must remain in their homeland and has put forward a reconstruction plan for Gaza and called for the implementation of the two-state solution. The plan was endorsed at an emergency Arab summit three weeks ago.

Media reports have indicated that Egypt responded to Israel’s control of the Gaza border by increasing its military presence near the frontier—an act that some Israeli officials claim violates the peace treaty and threatens Israel’s security.

Former Egyptian intelligence official Gen. Mohammed Rashad told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israel itself violated the peace treaty by seizing the Philadelphi Corridor, controlling border crossings, and blocking aid to Gaza while seeking to forcibly displace Palestinians into Egypt.

“Every Israeli action along Gaza’s border with Egypt constitutes hostile behavior against Egypt’s national security,” said Rashad, who previously headed the Israeli military affairs division in Egypt’s intelligence service.

“Egypt cannot sit idly by in the face of such threats and must prepare for all possible scenarios.”

The Philadelphi Corridor is a strategically sensitive buffer zone, serving as a narrow 14-kilometer passage between Egypt, Israel, and Gaza, stretching from the Mediterranean Sea in the north to the Kerem Shalom crossing in the south.

Military expert General Samir Farag insisted that Egypt has not violated the peace treaty or its security annex in over 40 years, arguing that Israel has repeatedly breached the agreement and is attempting to shift blame onto Cairo.

“Israel is doing this to distract from its internal problems, including public discontent over its ballooning defense budget,” Farag told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“It also wants to deflect attention from Egypt’s reconstruction plan for Gaza and leverage its claims to pressure the United States for more military aid by portraying Egypt as a threat.”

Farag emphasized that Egypt’s actions are solely aimed at protecting its national security, adding: “There is no clause in the peace treaty that prevents a country from defending itself.”

“The so-called ‘military infrastructure’ Israel refers to consists of roads and development projects in Sinai.”

“The US has satellite surveillance over the region—if Egypt had violated the treaty, Washington would have flagged it. Moreover, security coordination between Egypt and Israel continues daily,” he explained.

Egypt and Israel signed their landmark peace treaty on March 25, 1979, committing to resolving disputes peacefully and prohibiting the use or threat of force. The agreement also established military deployment guidelines and a joint security coordination committee.

Meanwhile, US Republican Party member Tom Harb told Asharq Al-Awsat that Washington has received intelligence from multiple sources indicating that Egypt has amassed a significant military force in Sinai.

Israel considers this a breach of the peace treaty, which designates Sinai as a demilitarized zone to prevent surprises like the 1973 war, Harb said.

While the US fully supports Israel’s concerns, it also wants to prevent further escalation, as that would destabilize the region, he added.

Ultimately, Egypt must clarify whether its troop movements are aimed at threatening Israel or preventing Palestinians from crossing into Egyptian territory, he stated.