Lebanon’s Precarious Sectarian Balance Tipping amid Hezbollah-Israeli War

A view shows buildings in the town of Klayaa, southern Lebanon, March 29, 2024. (Reuters)
A view shows buildings in the town of Klayaa, southern Lebanon, March 29, 2024. (Reuters)
TT
20

Lebanon’s Precarious Sectarian Balance Tipping amid Hezbollah-Israeli War

A view shows buildings in the town of Klayaa, southern Lebanon, March 29, 2024. (Reuters)
A view shows buildings in the town of Klayaa, southern Lebanon, March 29, 2024. (Reuters)

As the Lebanese Christian village of Rmeish marks its first Easter since the Gaza war erupted, residents say a parallel confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel is dragging them into a conflict they did not choose.

Like many Christians elsewhere in southern Lebanon, residents are angry and fearful their homes could be caught in the cross-fire and their families forced to flee -- permanently -- from their ancestral villages near the Lebanon-Israel border.

Earlier this week, a Rmeish resident confronted a group of armed men trying to launch rockets at Israel from within the village. Some villagers rang church bells to sound the alarm, and the armed men moved off to fire rockets from another neighborhood, according to mayor Milad al-Alam and Rmeish residents.

"What we've been saying for the last six months is: among our own homes, keep us neutral. Any strike in return would have brought huge losses," Alam told Reuters.

Hezbollah began launching rockets from hilltops and villages in southern Lebanon at Israel on Oct. 8 in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas, which carried out a cross-border attack into Israel the previous day that triggered a fierce Israeli land, air and sea offensive on the Gaza Strip.

The villagers' resentment reflects criticism from Christian clerics and politicians opposed to Hezbollah, who have long accused the group of undermining the state through its possession of a controversial arsenal that outguns the national army, and of monopolizing decisions of war and peace.

"We have nothing to do with this war. Do they (Hezbollah) want to displace us?" said a 40-year-old resident of Rmeish who asked not to be identified, fearing that criticizing Hezbollah could bring reprisals. Iran-backed Hezbollah denied its fighters had tried to launch rockets from Rmeish.

More than a dozen sects coexist in a precarious balancing act in tiny Lebanon, reflected in a power-sharing system that reserves government posts by religion. The presidency and central bank governor – two top posts reserved for Maronite Christians – have been vacant since Oct. 2022 and July 2023 respectively due to divisions over choosing successors.

‘No say’ in system

Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have been displaced both internally and to foreign countries by conflict and hardship over the last century, with the 15-year civil war seeing killings and kidnappings according to sect. Some 90,000 people have been displaced from southern Lebanon since the conflict broke out in October.

Christian lawmaker Ghada Ayoub, who represents a constituency in the south and hails from the anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces party, told Reuters that Christians were standing up to Hezbollah "because it is encroaching on their presence," and that the war was deepening fissures in Lebanese politics.

"The question is now: are there even any shared points left that we can carry on with – that we can build a state with?" she said.

The area most impacted by the shelling is the border strip, home to about a dozen Christian villages including Rmeish. They are nestled in rolling hills of olive groves, pine trees and tobacco fields -- now too dangerous to plant or harvest due to shelling.

"The areas around us were really affected – there have been strikes 500, 600 meters away. Our harvests have been ruined," said Joseph Salameh, a local official in the town of Klayaa, about four km (2.5 miles) from Lebanon's southern border.

Lebanon was already hit hard by a financial meltdown that began in 2019. With tourists staying away due to bombing, shops closed and schools shuttered or sheltering thousands displaced by the fighting, villages across the predominantly Shiite south have been dealt another severe economic blow, prompting fears among locals of a Christian exodus.

"Now the war has added to it and is encouraging our children to leave... Christians are no longer able to take on more than others because the problems of this country have become too many," Salameh said.

Lebanon's top Christian clerics have also sounded the alarm in weekly sermons. Maronite Patriarch Boutros al-Rahi called early on in the Gaza war for Lebanon to stay on the sidelines and more recently said war had been "imposed" on Christians.

Mounting outcry

Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Beirut Elias Audeh asked earlier this month if it was fair for "one faction of Lebanese to decide on behalf of everyone, and take unilateral decisions that not all Lebanese agree on".

With outcry mounting, Hezbollah's main Christian ally the Free Patriotic Movement has even ramped up criticism, saying its nearly two-decade alliance with Hezbollah had been "shaken".

"The main problem that arose recently was crossing the limits of defending Lebanon and getting involved in a conflict in which we cannot make decisions," FPM head Gebran Bassil said.

Their alliance had provided Hezbollah with supporters from a religious community outside its traditional base, but the pair have split over several issues in the last two years – including who should be Lebanon's next president.

Michael Young at the Carnegie Middle East Center said Bassil's comments were an attempt to gain some leverage over Hezbollah by signaling a rift – but also reflected Christian unease with the status quo.

"The mood among the Christian community is almost a psychological divorce from the system. They don't feel that they have a say in the system and in a way it's true -- Hezbollah is in control of much of the system," Young told Reuters.



Iraq Treads a Tightrope to Avoid Spillover from Israel-Iran Conflict 

Iraqi security forces close a bridge leading to the Green Zone where the US Embassy is located, during a protest against Israeli attacks on multiple cities across Iran, in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
Iraqi security forces close a bridge leading to the Green Zone where the US Embassy is located, during a protest against Israeli attacks on multiple cities across Iran, in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
TT
20

Iraq Treads a Tightrope to Avoid Spillover from Israel-Iran Conflict 

Iraqi security forces close a bridge leading to the Green Zone where the US Embassy is located, during a protest against Israeli attacks on multiple cities across Iran, in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
Iraqi security forces close a bridge leading to the Green Zone where the US Embassy is located, during a protest against Israeli attacks on multiple cities across Iran, in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)

In Iraqi airspace, Iranian missiles and drones have crossed paths with Israeli warplanes, forcing Baghdad to step up efforts to avoid being drawn into the region's latest conflict.

But with Baghdad both an ally of Iran and a strategic partner of the United States, Israel's closest supporter, it may struggle to avoid the fighting spreading to its territory.

"There is a sizable risk of a spillover escalation in Iraq," said political analyst Sajad Jiyad.

"Iraqis have a right to be worried," he added.

With warnings of all-out regional war intensifying following Israel's surprise assault on Iran last week, fears are growing over an intervention by Iran-backed Iraqi factions, which have been calling for the withdrawal of US troops deployed in Iraq as part of an anti-ISIS coalition.

A senior Iraqi security official told AFP on condition of anonymity that among pro-Iran actors "everyone is cooperating with the government to keep Iraq away from conflict."

But Jiyad warned that if the US supports Israel's attacks, it "may lead to pro-Iran elements inside Iraq targeting US troops" or other American interests like the embassy in Baghdad or the consulate in Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdistan region.

This could lead to the US and Israel taking retaliatory actions within Iraq, Jiyad added.

Iraq, which has been for years navigating a delicate balancing act between Tehran and Washington, has long been a fertile ground for proxy battles.

In 2020, during US President Donald Trump's first term, Washington killed Iran's esteemed Revolutionary Guards General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad.

Most recently, amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Iraq was on the brink of being drawn into the conflict after pro-Iran factions launched numerous attacks on US troops in the region, as well as mostly failed attacks on Israel, in support of Palestinians.

Washington retaliated by hitting the armed groups.

In recent days, Baghdad has been working diplomatic channels to prevent the latest violence from spreading onto its turf.

It has called on Washington to prevent Israeli jets from using Iraqi airspace to carry out attacks against Iran.

It also asked Iran not to strike US targets in its territory, and was promised "positive things", according to a senior Iraqi official.

Israel's use of Iraq's airspace has angered pro-Iran groups, who accused US troops of allowing it.

Powerful armed faction Kataib Hezbollah stressed that Iran does not need "military support", but it said that the group is "closely monitoring" the US military in the region.

It warned that if Washington intervenes in the war, the group "will act directly against its interests and bases in the region without hesitation."

A US official urged the Iraqi government to "protect diplomatic missions, as well as US military personnel."

"We believe Iraq will be more stable and sovereign by becoming energy independent and distancing itself from Iran's malign influence," the official told AFP, referring to Iraq's dependency on gas imports from Iran.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned that Iran-backed groups "continue to engage in violent and destabilizing activities in Iraq."

Israel's surprise attack on Iran targeted military and nuclear facilities and killed many top commanders and atomic scientists. Iran responded by unleashing barrages of missile strikes on Israel.

Tamer Badawi, an expert on Iraqi armed groups, said "the more Iran struggles to sustain its firepower against Israel, the likelier it becomes that Iraqi paramilitary actors will be drawn in."

For now, "Iran is trying to avoid collateral damage to its network by keeping its regional allies on standby. But this posture could shift," he added.

Before launching its attack on Iran, Israel had badly hit Tehran's proxies in the region, significantly weakening some groups, including Lebanon's Hezbollah.

"Beyond attacks within Iraq, Iran-backed Iraqi groups retain the capacity to target Israel from western Iraq using their missile arsenals, as they have done before," Badawi said.

They might also target American interests in Jordan.

But Iraqi officials say they have other plans for their country, which has only recently regained a semblance of stability after decades of devastating conflicts and turmoil.

Iraq is gearing up for its legislative elections in November, which are often marked by heated political wrangling.

For armed groups, elections are a crucial battleground as they strive to secure more seats in parliament.

"Sometimes, the sword must be kept in the sheath, but this does not mean abandoning our weapons," a commander of an armed faction told AFP.

The armed groups will not leave Iran, their "godfather... in the battle alone."