Israel's Strike on Iran: Limited Hit, Major Message

Israel's apparent strike on Iran was deliberately limited in scope but sent a clear warning to the country's leadership about Israeli abilities to strike at sensitive targets.
Tehran refuses to recognize Israel, and for decades the two countries have waged a shadow war marked by covert Israeli operations inside Iran, and Iranian backing for anti-Israel militant groups including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
But while the surge in tensions over the past weeks has calmed for now, the shadow war has entered a new phase, carrying more than ever the risk of open conflict between the foes, analysts say.
The current escalation comes against the background of Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel followed by the Israeli bombing campaign in the Gaza Strip.
It began when Israel was blamed for carrying out an air strike on April 1 against Iran's consulate in Damascus, killing seven Iranian officials from the Revolutionary Guards.
Iran responded with its first-ever direct attack on Israel, involving hundreds of drones and missiles, though almost all were shot down by Israel and its allies.
Amid fears of a major Israeli retaliation to that attack, which could itself provoke another Iranian response, Israel instead chose a much more limited option in the face of US pressure.
'Remind Iran'
According to The New York Times, which cited Israeli and Iranian sources, the target was the radar system of a Russian-supplied S-300 missile defense system at an airbase in the central province of Isfahan, the region that hosts the Natanz uranium enrichment plant.
The origin of the strike is not entirely clear, but it included at least one missile fired from a warplane outside Iran and small attack drones known as quadcopters that could have been launched from inside Iran itself and were aimed at confusing air defenses, the reports said.
Israel, in line with its usual policy, has not confirmed or denied carrying out the strike on Iran or the April 1 attack in Syria.
"The purpose of the operation was precisely to remind Iran what Israel could be capable of," said Arash Azizi, senior lecturer at Clemson University in the United States.
"The choice of the airbase near Isfahan was significant because this is the main source of air defense support for all the nuclear installations in the province," he told AFP.
Israel is long believed to have carried out sabotage operations inside Iran through its Mossad espionage agency.
Most famously, according to US media reports, Iran's top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in 2020 by Mossad using a machine gun that had been assembled close to his home by its agents and then fired remotely after they left.
According to some outlets, including television channel Iran International, Israeli agents have even captured and interrogated Revolutionary Guards inside Iran to obtain intelligence.
There have also been suspicions, after mysterious explosions around sensitive sites, that Israel has already carried out drone attacks inside Iran, but this has never been confirmed.
'Rubicon crossed'
Iranian officials have been at pains to almost laugh off the Israeli strike, with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian telling NBC News the weapons used were at the "level of toys".
Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, meanwhile, praised the country's armed forces for their "success".
But Alexander Grinberg, expert on Iran at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, said Israel's choice and designation of target was in itself indicative of the presence Mossad has inside Iran.
"Israel's message is 'We can strike anywhere in Iran' given that Isfahan is in the center of Iran, relatively far away, and Israel knows exactly where it can strike," he said.
Grinberg said it was logical that Iran has not confirmed that the air base was hit: "From the moment you recognize the true scale of damage, you admit the power of the enemy."
Holly Dagres, non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, said if Israel's attack involved small quadcopters, "these small drones were likely launched from inside Iran".
This would highlight "yet another instance in which Mossad has a presence on the ground and how Iran is its playground", she said.
While the current escalation phase appears to be over, Israel could yet launch more retaliation against Iran, and tensions may also surge again if Israel launches its long-threatened offensive on Rafah in Gaza.
"In some ways, we are now back to the pre-April 1 rules of operation: the realm of gray area and unattributable operations, sabotage," said lecturer Azizi.
"That suits both Iran and Israel well. But the rubicon crossed on April 1 still matters and makes the stakes higher," he added.

*Teenager Diaa al-Adini was one of the few Palestinians who found a functioning hospital in war-ravaged Gaza after he was wounded by an Israeli strike. But he did not have much time to recuperate after doctors amputated both of his arms.

Adini, 15, suddenly had to flee the overwhelmed medical facility after the Israeli military ordered people to leave before an attack in its war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas. He made it to an American field hospital.

Many Palestinians have been displaced during the conflict, moving up and down and across the Gaza Strip seeking safe shelter. They are unlucky most of the time.

Scrambling to save your life is especially difficult for Palestinians like Adini, who require urgent medical care but get caught up in the chaos of the war, which erupted after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7.

Memories of better days provide limited relief from reality in Gaza. Israeli strikes have reduced most of one of the most crowded places on earth to rubble as rows and rows of homes are destroyed.

“We used to swim, challenge each other, and sleep, me and my friend Mohammed al-Serei. We used to jump in the water and float on it," Reuters quoted Adini, who walked on a beach with his sister Aya recalling the few distractions from before.

His sister placed a towel over the place where his arms used to be and wiped his mouth.

- 'I CANNOT REPLACE MY AUNT'

The strike hit when he was in a makeshift coffee house.

The teenager, who spent 12 days in hospital before he was displaced also lost his aunt, her children and grandchildren in the war.

"As for my arms, I can get other ones fitted but I cannot replace my aunt," he said.

Israel responded to the Hamas attack in October -- the country's bloodiest day in its 75-year history -- with a military offensive that has killed at least 40,500 people and wounded 93,778 others, according to Gaza health authorities.

Israel says it goes out of its way to avoid civilian casualties and has accused Hamas of using human shields, an allegation it denies.

The suffering is unlikely to end anytime soon unless mediation by the United States, Egypt and Qatar secures a ceasefire. And even then, there is a possibility hostilities will resume.

So all Palestinians can do is hope for treatment at the few functional hospitals as they face a humanitarian crisis -- severe shortages of food, fuel, power and medicine, as raw sewage increases the chance of disease.

“God willing, I will continue my treatment in the American hospital, and get limbs," said Adini.

He dreams of being like other children one day; to live a good life, get an education, drive cars and have fun. His sister Aya hopes that he can go back to his camera and iPad.

Israel's Strike on Iran: Limited Hit, Major Message