Israeli Forces Back in Old Gaza Battlegrounds as Doubts Over War Aims Grow 

Israeli tanks maneuver, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas, near the Israel-Gaza Border May 14, 2024. (Reuters)
Israeli tanks maneuver, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas, near the Israel-Gaza Border May 14, 2024. (Reuters)
TT
20

Israeli Forces Back in Old Gaza Battlegrounds as Doubts Over War Aims Grow 

Israeli tanks maneuver, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas, near the Israel-Gaza Border May 14, 2024. (Reuters)
Israeli tanks maneuver, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas, near the Israel-Gaza Border May 14, 2024. (Reuters)

Seven months into the war, Israeli troops are back fighting in the north of the Gaza Strip, in areas that were supposed to have been cleared months ago, highlighting growing questions about the government's declared goal of eliminating Hamas.

As tanks have started pushing into the southern city of Rafah, where the military says the last four intact battalions of Hamas are dug in, there has been fierce fighting in the Zeitoun area of Gaza City and around Jabalia, to the north, both of which the army took control of last year before moving on.

The renewed fighting there - amid international pressure for a ceasefire - has underscored concern in Israel that the lack of a clear strategic plan for Gaza will leave Hamas in effective control of the enclave it has ruled since 2007.

A clear end to the war appears as far off as ever.

Hunkered in the extensive tunnel network that runs beneath the ruins of Gaza, Hamas appears to retain broad support among a population scarred by a campaign that has killed more than 35,000 Palestinians and forced most Gazans from their homes.

"If we rely on a strategy of ongoing attrition or surgical operations against Hamas, it won't achieve the goal of governmental or military collapse," said Michael Milshtein, a former military intelligence officer and one of Israel's most prominent experts on the Palestinian movement.

US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell declared on Monday that Washington doubted Israel would achieve "sweeping victory on the battlefield".

HARD-RIGHT ALLIES

For the past few weeks, cabinet officials have urged Netanyahu to formulate a clear "day after" policy for Gaza, according to two security officials.

However, Netanyahu has so far insisted on total victory, responding to pressure from hard-right allies such as Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose support he needs to hold his ruling coalition together.

Despite international calls for a revival of efforts to find a solution to the decades-long conflict, talk of a political settlement has been rejected repeatedly by a government that refuses to contemplate any steps towards an independent Palestinian state.

That has left it forced to seek a purely military solution that has complicated the task of the troops on the ground.

This week, Israel's Channel 13 news reported that army commander Herzi Halevi had told Netanyahu that without a serious drive to build an alternative Palestinian government in Gaza, the military faced a "Sisyphean effort" to defeat Hamas - a reference to the character in Greek mythology condemned to endlessly push a boulder uphill.

Israeli officials have previously talked about drawing on local civil or clan leaders not associated with Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, which exercises a limited form of sovereignty in the West Bank, to provide an alternative.

Such efforts had proved fruitless, however, according to Milshtein. "Hamas is still the dominant power in Gaza, including in northern parts of the Strip," he said.

‘WHAT COMES AFTER RAFAH?’

In contrast, the strategic goals of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, appear clear - to survive the war in sufficient strength to rebuild, reflected in his insistence on a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces as a condition for any ceasefire deal.

"They are survival tactics for Hamas and soon Israel will find itself forced to answer the question, 'what comes after Rafah?'" said a Palestinian official not allied to Hamas who is close to stalled talks brokered by Egypt and Qatar.

How many fighters from Hamas and the other armed militant groups in Gaza have been killed remains unclear. Casualty figures published by Gaza's health ministry do not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

Netanyahu himself offered a figure of around 14,000 this week, which would be roughly half the total number of Hamas fighters the Israeli military estimated at the start of the war.

Hamas has said that Israeli estimates exaggerate the numbers of dead and in any case the fighters have adapted their tactics as their organized units have been broken down.

Despite heavy US pressure not to launch an assault on Rafah, its population swollen by hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians, Israeli commanders have begun probing deeper into the city. It remains far from clear what they will face in its narrow streets if they launch a full-scale assault.

"Our fighters choose their battles, they don't allow the occupation to impose the battle time or ground for us because we don't have equal military capabilities," said a fighter from one of the armed factions.

"We don't have to clash face-to-face, but the occupiers and the invaders will lose soldiers and vehicles almost every day, here and there inside Gaza. They will never settle."

How far Israel is ready to go is unclear. Surveys continue to show broad support for the war among a population still traumatized by the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7 that killed some 1,200 people and saw more than 250 taken into Gaza as hostages.

But weekly protests by the hostages' families over the failure to bring those still in captivity home have shown that such support is matched by anger at a government most Israelis blame for the security failures that preceded the attack.

Heckling of Netanyahu and some of his ministers at Monday's Memorial Day ceremonies for Israel's war dead show how unhappy the general mood in the country appears to be, said Yossi Mekelberg, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House in London.

"You see some representatives of the government coming to the cemeteries, and some of them, quite a few of them, are facing very angry families and others who blame them for what has happened in the last seven months," he said.



What Would Lifting US Sanctions on Syria Mean to the War-Torn Country?

People walk past a billboard displaying Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, and US President Donald Trump with a slogan thanking Saudi Arabia and the United States, in Damascus on May 14, 2025. (AFP)
People walk past a billboard displaying Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, and US President Donald Trump with a slogan thanking Saudi Arabia and the United States, in Damascus on May 14, 2025. (AFP)
TT
20

What Would Lifting US Sanctions on Syria Mean to the War-Torn Country?

People walk past a billboard displaying Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, and US President Donald Trump with a slogan thanking Saudi Arabia and the United States, in Damascus on May 14, 2025. (AFP)
People walk past a billboard displaying Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, and US President Donald Trump with a slogan thanking Saudi Arabia and the United States, in Damascus on May 14, 2025. (AFP)

President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US will ease sanctions on Syria could eventually facilitate the country’s recovery from years of civil war and transform the lives of everyday Syrians.

But experts say it will take time, and the process for lifting the sanctions — some of which were first introduced 47 years ago — is unclear.

“I think people view sanctions as a switch that you turn on and off,” said Karam Shaar, a Syrian economist who runs the consultancy firm Karam Shaar Advisory Limited. “Far from it.”

Still, the move could bring much-needed investment to the country, which is emerging from decades of autocratic rule by the Assad family as well as the war. It needs tens of billions of dollars to restore its battered infrastructure and pull an estimated 90% of the population out of poverty.

And Trump’s pledge has already had an effect: Syrians celebrated in streets across the country, and Arab leaders in neighboring nations that host millions of refugees who fled Syria’s war praised the announcement.

What are the US sanctions on Syria? Washington has imposed three sanctions programs on Syria. In 1979, the country was designated a “state sponsor of terrorism” because its military was involved in neighboring Lebanon's civil war and had backed armed groups there, and eventually developed strong ties with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group.

In 2003, then-President George W. Bush signed the Syria Accountability Act into law, as his administration faced off with Iran and Tehran-backed governments and groups in the Middle East. The legislation focused heavily on Syria's support of designated terror groups, its military presence in Lebanon, its alleged development of weapons of mass destruction, as well as oil smuggling and the backing of armed groups in Iraq after the US-led invasion.

In 2019, during Trump's first term, he signed the Caesar Act, sanctioning Syrian troops and others responsible for atrocities committed during the civil war.

Caesar is the code name for a Syrian photographer who took thousands of photographs of victims of torture and other abuses and smuggled them out of the country. The images, taken between 2011 and 2013, were turned over to human rights advocates, exposing the scale of the Syrian government’s brutal crackdown on political opponents and dissidents during countrywide protests.

What has been the impact of US sanctions on Syria? The sanctions — along with similar measures by other countries — have touched every part of the Syrian economy and everyday life in the country.

They have led to shortages of goods from fuel to medicine, and made it difficult for humanitarian agencies responding to receive funding and operate fully.

Companies around the world struggle to export to Syria, and Syrians struggle to import goods of any kind because nearly all financial transactions with the country are banned. That has led to a blossoming black market of smuggled goods.

Simple tasks like updating smartphones are difficult, if not impossible, and many people resort to virtual private networks, or VPNs, which mask online activity, to access the internet because many websites block users with Syrian IP addresses.

The impact was especially stark after a devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit Türkiye and northern Syria in February 2023, compounding the destruction and misery that the war had already brought.

Though the US Treasury issued a six-month exemption on all financial transactions related to disaster relief, the measures had limited effect since banks and companies were nervous to take the risk, a phenomenon known as over-compliance.

Interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa — who led the insurgency that ousted President Bashar al-Assad — has argued the sanctions have outlived their purpose and are now only harming the Syrian people and ultimately preventing the country from any prospect of recovery.

Trump and Sharaa met Wednesday.

Washington eased some restrictions temporarily in January but did not lift the sanctions. Britain and the European Union have eased some of their measures.

What could lifting the sanctions mean for Syria? After Trump’s announcement, Syria's currency gained 60% on Tuesday night — a signal of how transformational the removal of sanctions could be.

Still, it will take time to see any tangible impact on Syria's economy, experts say, but removing all three sanctions regimes could bring major changes to the lives of Syrians, given how all-encompassing the measures are.

It could mean banks could return to the international financial system or car repair shops could import spare parts from abroad. If the economy improves and reconstruction projects take off, many Syrian refugees who live in crowded tented encampments relying on aid to survive could decide to return home.

“If the situation stabilized and there were reforms, we will then see Syrians returning to their country if they were given opportunities as we expect,” says Lebanese economist Mounis Younes.

The easing of sanctions also has an important symbolic weight because it would signal that Syria is no longer a pariah, said Shaar.

Mathieu Rouquette, Mercy Corps’ country director for Syria, said the move “marks a potentially transformative moment for millions of Syrians who have endured more than 13 years of economic hardship, conflict, and displacement.”

But it all depends on how Washington goes about it.

“Unless enough layers of sanctions are peeled off, you cannot expect the positive impacts on Syria to start to appear,” said Shaar. “Even if you remove some of the top ones, the impact economically would still be nonexistent.”