What Happens after ICC Prosecutor Seeks Warrants in Israel-Gaza Conflict?

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to his Likud party faction meeting at the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem May 20, 2024 (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to his Likud party faction meeting at the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem May 20, 2024 (Reuters)
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What Happens after ICC Prosecutor Seeks Warrants in Israel-Gaza Conflict?

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to his Likud party faction meeting at the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem May 20, 2024 (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to his Likud party faction meeting at the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem May 20, 2024 (Reuters)

The International Criminal Court prosecutor's office has requested arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense chief, and also for three Hamas leaders for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. Here is a look at what happens next, and how the ICC prosecutor's move might impact diplomatic relations and other court cases focused on Gaza.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT AT ICC?

Prosecutor Karim Khan's request goes to a pre-trial chamber. The chamber will be composed of three magistrates: presiding judge Iulia Motoc of Romania, Mexican judge Maria del Socorro Flores Liera and judge Reine Alapini-Gansou of Benin. There is no deadline for judges to decide whether to issue arrest warrants. In previous cases, judges have taken anywhere from just over a month to several months.

If the judges agree there are "reasonable grounds" to believe war crimes or crimes against humanity have been committed, they will issue an arrest warrant. The warrant must name the person, the specific crimes for which an arrest is sought and a statement of facts which are alleged to constitute those crimes.

Judges can amend arrest warrant requests and grant only portions of what the prosecutor is seeking. Charges can also be changed and updated later.

Israeli and Hamas leaders have dismissed allegations of committing war crimes, and representatives of both sides criticized Khan's decision.

WILL NETANYAHU AND THE HAMAS LEADERS BE ARRESTED?

The ICC's founding Rome statute combined with jurisprudence from past cases involving arrest warrants against sitting heads of state oblige all 124 ICC signatory states to arrest and hand over any individual subject to an ICC arrest warrant if they set foot on their territory. However, the court has no means to enforce an arrest. The sanction for not arresting someone is a referral back to the ICC's assembly of member states and ultimately a referral to the U.N. Security Council.

CAN AN ICC INVESTIGATION OR WARRANT BE PAUSED?

The court's rules allow for the UN Security Council to adopt a resolution that would pause or defer an investigation or a prosecution for a year, with the possibility of renewing that indefinitely.

In past cases where a state has ignored its obligation to arrest an individual facing an ICC warrant, they have received a procedural slap on the wrist at most.

CAN NETANYAHU AND HAMAS CHIEF YAHYA SINWAR STILL TRAVEL?

Yes they can. Neither the application for a warrant nor the issuance of an ICC arrest warrant curbs an individual's freedom to travel. However, once an arrest warrant has been issued, they risk arrest if they travel to an ICC signatory state, which may influence their decision-making.

There are no restrictions on political leaders, lawmakers or diplomats from meeting individuals with an ICC arrest warrant against them. Politically, however, the optics of this may be bad.

WILL THIS APPLICATION FOR WARRANTS INFLUENCE OTHER CASES?

Not directly, but perhaps indirectly. The ICC application is a separate matter to, for example, court cases demanding an arms embargo against Israel or South Africa's attempts at the International Court of Justice to seek a halt to Israel's offensive on Rafah.

If the judges decide there are reasonable grounds to believe Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant are committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, it could strengthen legal challenges demanding an arms embargo elsewhere as numerous states have provisions against selling arms to states who might use them in ways that violate international humanitarian law.



Airlines Avoid Iranian Airspace, Hiking up Flight Times and Fuel Costs

Smoke rises over Beirut's southern suburbs and their surroundings after strikes, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Sin El Fil, Lebanon October 3, 2024. REUTERS/Abdelaziz Boumzar
Smoke rises over Beirut's southern suburbs and their surroundings after strikes, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Sin El Fil, Lebanon October 3, 2024. REUTERS/Abdelaziz Boumzar
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Airlines Avoid Iranian Airspace, Hiking up Flight Times and Fuel Costs

Smoke rises over Beirut's southern suburbs and their surroundings after strikes, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Sin El Fil, Lebanon October 3, 2024. REUTERS/Abdelaziz Boumzar
Smoke rises over Beirut's southern suburbs and their surroundings after strikes, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Sin El Fil, Lebanon October 3, 2024. REUTERS/Abdelaziz Boumzar

Airlines are largely avoiding Iranian airspace in their flights over the Middle East, according to flight tracker FlightRadar24, lengthening flight times and hiking up fuel costs as worries over a retaliatory attack from Israel targeting Iran grow.

Turmoil in the Middle East in the last year has led to confusion and upheaval for aviation, prompting airlines to frequently change routes as they reassess the safety of the airspace in the region, according to Reuters.

"Most airlines have rerouted flights away from Iran, with the northern route taking flights through Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India on their way to Asia, and the southern route flying over Egypt and Saudi Arabia," said FlightRadar24 spokesperson Ian Petchenik.

Some airlines have said they have resumed most of their operations across the Middle East since Iran hit Israel with a ballistic missile attack on Tuesday, leading to flight cancellations and delays.

Petchenik said most strategic changes to flights to avoid parts of the Middle East have been lifted in direct connection with the Tuesday attack.

Late on Wednesday, German group Lufthansa said it would resume flights to Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan using a limited amount of Iraqi airspace, and will resume using Jordanian airspace on Thursday.

It added that flights to Tel Aviv, Beirut and Tehran will remain suspended for the time being.