Death of Iran’s Raisi Could Stir Race for Khamenei Succession, Insiders Say 

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei receives President Ebrahim Raisi and members of the government in August. (dpa)
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei receives President Ebrahim Raisi and members of the government in August. (dpa)
TT
20

Death of Iran’s Raisi Could Stir Race for Khamenei Succession, Insiders Say 

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei receives President Ebrahim Raisi and members of the government in August. (dpa)
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei receives President Ebrahim Raisi and members of the government in August. (dpa)

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a helicopter crash upsets the plans of hardliners who wanted him to succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and will stir rivalries in their camp over who will take over the country when he dies.

A protege of Khamenei who rose through the ranks of Iran's theocracy, Raisi, 63, was widely seen as a leading candidate to take over from the 85-year-old Supreme Leader - though it was far from being a foregone conclusion in Iran's opaque politics.

His rise to the presidency was part of a consolidation of power in the hands of hardliners dedicated to shoring up the pillars of the Islamic Republic against the risks posed by dissent at home and powerful enemies in a turbulent region.

Raisi had enjoyed staunch backing from Khamenei, who had himself held the position of president before he became Supreme Leader in 1989 following the death of the Islamic Republic's founder, Khomeini.

The Supreme Leader holds ultimate power in Iran, acting as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and deciding on the direction of foreign policy, defined largely by confrontation with the United States and Israel.

While Khamenei has not endorsed a successor, Iran watchers say Raisi was one of the two names most often mentioned, the second being Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba, who is widely believed to wield influence behind the scenes.

Raisi, backed by a group that wanted to see him become Supreme Leader, clearly wanted the role, said Vali Nasr, professor of Middle East Studies and International Affairs at John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

"Now they don't have a candidate, and that opens the door for other factions or other figures to emerge as serious contenders," he said.

For Raisi, a mid-ranking Shiite cleric, the presidency had been a vehicle to reach the supreme leadership. "There's no other candidate right now (with) that kind of a platform and that's why the presidential elections in Iran, however they unfold, will be the first decider about what comes next," Nasr said.

'BLOW TO THE ESTABLISHMENT'

Raisi's views echoed Khamenei's on every major topic and he enacted the leader's policies aimed at entrenching clerical power, cracking down on opponents, and adopting a tough line on foreign policy issues such as the nuclear talks with Washington, two Iranian insiders said.

The hardliners maintained their grip in a parliamentary election held in March, but turnout sunk to the lowest level since the revolution.

Critics saw this as reflecting a crisis of legitimacy for the clerical elite, amid mounting economic struggles and dissent among Iranians chafing at the social and political restrictions which drove months of protests ignited by the death of a young woman arrested by the morality police in 2022.

Though his name has often been cited, doubts have swirled over the possible candidacy of Mojtaba, a mid-ranking cleric who teaches theology at a religious seminary in the city of Qom.

Khamenei has indicated opposition to his son's candidacy because he does not want to see any slide back towards a system of hereditary rule in a country where the US-backed monarchy was overthrown in 1979, an Iranian source close to Khamenei's office said.

A regional source familiar with the thinking in Tehran said Khamenei's opposition to hereditary rule would eliminate both Mojtaba and Ali Khomeini, a grandson of the Islamic Republic's founder who is based in Najaf, Iraq.

A former Iranian official said powerful actors including the Revolutionary Guards and influential clerics in Qom are now expected to step up efforts to shape the process by which the next supreme leader is picked.

"Raisi's death is a blow to the establishment that has no other candidate now," the official said, adding that while it was believed Raisi had been groomed to succeed Khamenei, nobody knew for sure what Khamenei's intentions were.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUCCESSION

Khamenei had not been a clear favorite for the role in 1989 and only emerged after backroom dealings among the clerical elite.

Under Iran's constitution, the Supreme Leader is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body that supervises and in theory can sack the Supreme Leader.

While the Assembly is chosen in an election, another hardline watchdog body comprising clerics and jurists aligned to Khamenei has the power to veto laws and decide who may stand.

Two sources familiar with the matter said the Assembly of Experts had taken Raisi off a list of potential successors some six months ago because of his sagging popularity, reflecting economic hardship caused by US sanctions and mismanagement.

One of the sources said intensive lobbying had been underway by influential, pro-Raisi clerics to get his name reinstated.



Where Things Stand in the US-China Trade War

OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: The container ship CMA CGM Osiris arrives at the Port of Oakland on April 09, 2025 in Oakland, California.  Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: The container ship CMA CGM Osiris arrives at the Port of Oakland on April 09, 2025 in Oakland, California. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP
TT
20

Where Things Stand in the US-China Trade War

OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: The container ship CMA CGM Osiris arrives at the Port of Oakland on April 09, 2025 in Oakland, California.  Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 09: The container ship CMA CGM Osiris arrives at the Port of Oakland on April 09, 2025 in Oakland, California. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP

US President Donald Trump has ramped up his trade war against China, further raising import tariffs on Beijing to 125 percent despite pausing them for other countries.

The move came hours after China announced reciprocal action against the United States in response to a previous levy hike.

AFP looks at how the escalating trade war between the world's two biggest economies is playing out -- and what impact it might have:

What actions has Trump taken so far?

Trump said Wednesday that the US would raise tariffs on Chinese imports to a staggering 125 percent, citing a "lack of respect" from Beijing.

The announcement came as the mercurial president announced a halt on tariffs for other nations for 90 days, following panic on global markets.

The new levy on China marked the latest salvo in a brewing tit-for-tat trade war between the two global superpowers.

A previous round of US tariffs had come into force earlier on Wednesday, jacking up duties on China to 104 percent.

As well as the blanket levies, China is also under sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminium and car imports.

How has China responded?

China has vowed to fight the measures "to the end" and so far has unveiled reciprocal tariffs each time Trump has upped the ante.

Responding to the 104 percent duties on Wednesday, Beijing said it would raise its own tariffs on US imports from 34 percent to 84 percent, effective from Thursday.

It also said it had filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO), citing "bullying" tactics by the Trump administration.

China had not responded to the latest hike in tariffs to 125 percent levies as of Thursday morning.

But its countermeasures have begun to step outside the economic sphere, with government departments warning citizens of the "risks" of travelling to the US or studying in parts of the country.

And while Beijing has blasted the US with fiery rhetoric, it has continued to urge "equal dialogue" to resolve the trade spat.

Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said China had sent a "clear signal" that it would not back down, adding that there was "(no) quick and easy way out" of the conflict.

Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan, agreed, saying "the bar for a possible deal is high".

- Why is China so vulnerable to tariffs? -

Trade between the world's two largest economies is vast.

Sales of Chinese goods to the US last year totaled more than $500 billion -- 16.4 percent of the country's exports, according to Beijing's customs data.

And China imported $143.5 billion in goods from the United States in 2024, according to the office of the US Trade Representative.

That trade was dominated by agricultural products, primarily oilseeds and grains, according to the US-China Business Council. Oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are also among major US exports to China.

Beijing has long drawn Trump's ire with a trade surplus with the United States that reached $295.4 billion last year, according to the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Chinese leaders have been reluctant to disrupt the status quo, in part because the country's export-driven economy is particularly sensitive to vicissitudes in international trade.

US duties also threaten to harm China's fragile post-Covid economic recovery as it struggles with a debt crisis in the property sector and persistently low consumption -- a downturn Beijing had sought to slow with broad fiscal stimulus last year.

But an intensified trade war will likely mean China cannot peg its hopes for strong economic growth this year on its exports, which reached record highs in 2024.

What impact will US tariffs have?

The head of the WTO said Wednesday that the US-China tariff war could cut trade in goods between the two countries by 80 percent.

Given the two economic giants account for three percent of world trade, the conflict could "severely damage the global economic outlook", Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.

Analysts expect the levies to take a significant chunk out of China's GDP, which Beijing's leadership hope will grow five percent this year.

Likely to be hit hardest are China's top exports to the United States -- everything from electronics and machinery to textiles and clothing, according to the Peterson Institute of International Economics.

And because of the crucial role Chinese goods play in supplying US firms, the tariffs may also hurt American manufacturers and consumers, analysts have warned.

Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said it was "difficult to see either side backing down in the next few days".

But, he added, "talks will eventually happen, although a full rollback of all the additional tariffs... appear unlikely".