Death of Iran’s Raisi Could Stir Race for Khamenei Succession, Insiders Say

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei receives President Ebrahim Raisi and members of the government in August. (dpa)

07:38-21 May 2024 AD ـ 14 Thul-Qi’dah 1445 AH

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei receives President Ebrahim Raisi and members of the government in August. (dpa)

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a helicopter crash upsets the plans of hardliners who wanted him to succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and will stir rivalries in their camp over who will take over the country when he dies.

A protege of Khamenei who rose through the ranks of Iran's theocracy, Raisi, 63, was widely seen as a leading candidate to take over from the 85-year-old Supreme Leader - though it was far from being a foregone conclusion in Iran's opaque politics.

His rise to the presidency was part of a consolidation of power in the hands of hardliners dedicated to shoring up the pillars of the Islamic Republic against the risks posed by dissent at home and powerful enemies in a turbulent region.

Raisi had enjoyed staunch backing from Khamenei, who had himself held the position of president before he became Supreme Leader in 1989 following the death of the Islamic Republic's founder, Khomeini.

The Supreme Leader holds ultimate power in Iran, acting as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and deciding on the direction of foreign policy, defined largely by confrontation with the United States and Israel.

While Khamenei has not endorsed a successor, Iran watchers say Raisi was one of the two names most often mentioned, the second being Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba, who is widely believed to wield influence behind the scenes.

Raisi, backed by a group that wanted to see him become Supreme Leader, clearly wanted the role, said Vali Nasr, professor of Middle East Studies and International Affairs at John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

"Now they don't have a candidate, and that opens the door for other factions or other figures to emerge as serious contenders," he said.

For Raisi, a mid-ranking Shiite cleric, the presidency had been a vehicle to reach the supreme leadership. "There's no other candidate right now (with) that kind of a platform and that's why the presidential elections in Iran, however they unfold, will be the first decider about what comes next," Nasr said.

'BLOW TO THE ESTABLISHMENT'

Raisi's views echoed Khamenei's on every major topic and he enacted the leader's policies aimed at entrenching clerical power, cracking down on opponents, and adopting a tough line on foreign policy issues such as the nuclear talks with Washington, two Iranian insiders said.

The hardliners maintained their grip in a parliamentary election held in March, but turnout sunk to the lowest level since the revolution.

Critics saw this as reflecting a crisis of legitimacy for the clerical elite, amid mounting economic struggles and dissent among Iranians chafing at the social and political restrictions which drove months of protests ignited by the death of a young woman arrested by the morality police in 2022.

Though his name has often been cited, doubts have swirled over the possible candidacy of Mojtaba, a mid-ranking cleric who teaches theology at a religious seminary in the city of Qom.

Khamenei has indicated opposition to his son's candidacy because he does not want to see any slide back towards a system of hereditary rule in a country where the US-backed monarchy was overthrown in 1979, an Iranian source close to Khamenei's office said.

A regional source familiar with the thinking in Tehran said Khamenei's opposition to hereditary rule would eliminate both Mojtaba and Ali Khomeini, a grandson of the Islamic Republic's founder who is based in Najaf, Iraq.

A former Iranian official said powerful actors including the Revolutionary Guards and influential clerics in Qom are now expected to step up efforts to shape the process by which the next supreme leader is picked.

"Raisi's death is a blow to the establishment that has no other candidate now," the official said, adding that while it was believed Raisi had been groomed to succeed Khamenei, nobody knew for sure what Khamenei's intentions were.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUCCESSION

Khamenei had not been a clear favorite for the role in 1989 and only emerged after backroom dealings among the clerical elite.

Under Iran's constitution, the Supreme Leader is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body that supervises and in theory can sack the Supreme Leader.

While the Assembly is chosen in an election, another hardline watchdog body comprising clerics and jurists aligned to Khamenei has the power to veto laws and decide who may stand.

Two sources familiar with the matter said the Assembly of Experts had taken Raisi off a list of potential successors some six months ago because of his sagging popularity, reflecting economic hardship caused by US sanctions and mismanagement.

One of the sources said intensive lobbying had been underway by influential, pro-Raisi clerics to get his name reinstated.

Where Does Israel’s Destruction of Underground Hezbollah Base Leave the Group?

Destroyed stones on the top of Ali al-Taher ridge, which Israeli forces captured after fighting with Hezbollah and where the Israeli military said it blew up a network of Hezbollah tunnels Thursday night near Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, Friday, Sept. 11, 2026. (AP)

15:57-13 September 2026 AD ـ 01 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1448 AH

Where Does Israel’s Destruction of Underground Hezbollah Base Leave the Group?

Israel's demolition on Thursday of a tunnel network used by Hezbollah as a command center in southern Lebanon, near the border, represents a significant setback for the Iran-backed group.

Experts said that while Hezbollah is far from defeated, the group was now exposed after two fierce wars with Israel in which it suffered major blows including the loss of much of its top leadership and Israel's occupation of parts of southern Lebanon.

- How big of a blow is it? -

A week after capturing the site, the Israeli military on Thursday demolished the tunnels in the Ali al-Taher ridge with huge explosions. The United States Geological Survey reported a 4.1 magnitude tremor in the area.

Hezbollah never acknowledged losing the strategic highland, which lies around 10 kilometers (six miles) from the border with Israel and overlooks the major city of Nabatieh.

The Israeli military previously said that the network comprised tunnels containing dozens of Iranian-made rockets, missiles and drones, as well as other weapons.

Experts say the tunnels, built over two decades, connected a network of villages in the area, and that the Israeli military now had easy access to Nabatieh, where Hezbollah holds sway.

"This is a major loss, they cannot make another (headquarters) like it for decades to come," Khalil Gemayel, a retired Lebanese general told AFP.

"Hezbollah is now exposed in the area around the ridge," he added.

Reacting to the tunnels' destruction on Friday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said: "Now there is a strong security zone, stronger than ever before, which protects the communities from attack and direct fire, and enables us to maintain control and threaten Hezbollah deep inside the area".

- Is Hezbollah militarily defeated? -

While a significant moment, Gemayel believed that "losing Ali al-Taher does not mean Hezbollah is broken".

Israel occupies a swathe of southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah built a now-dismantled network of tunnels near the border.

The group still maintains its major positions in Iqlim al-Tuffah -- a higher-altitude part of the south further away from Israel -- in the Jezzine highlands elsewhere in the south and in the Bekaa region in Lebanon's east and northeast.

"The facilities present in Iqlim al-Tuffah are bigger than (Ali al-Taher)," according to Gemayel.

But Hezbollah no longer has a weapons supply route through Syria, where the new authorities there are hostile to the group.

Military expert Hassan Jouni also said that "the fact that Hezbollah did not carry out a major operation in Ali al-Taher to defend it is a sign of weakness".

Hezbollah has not claimed any attacks on Israel and its troops since June 20 while Lebanon reports regular, sometimes deadly Israeli strikes despite a months-long truce.

Israel has accused the group of attacks on its troops in that time.

- Where does the group stand now? -

Hezbollah twice sparked wars with Israel in recent years, the first time with its attacks in support of Hamas during the Gaza war, and the second in March in support of Iran.

Jouni said that while "Hezbollah lost a solid, fortified defensive base" when Israel took Ali al-Taher, "it is not a devastating setback".

"It has gone through unprecedented setbacks before the issue of Ali al-Taher, especially with the assassinations and the (Israeli army)'s ability to occupy a vast area" of southern Lebanon, he said.

During these wars, Hezbollah lost several of its top commanders, including its former chief, while an Israeli operation in September 2024 saw hundreds of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies explode, paralyzing the group's communication systems while killing dozens and wounding thousands.

More than 8,900 people have been killed in Israeli attacks since 2023, according to Lebanon's health ministry. Hezbollah does not disclose how many fighters it has lost, but most people killed in the war have been adult men.

On top of these setbacks, Hezbollah is also dealing with a Lebanese president and prime minister who have vowed to disarm it.

The group's weapons have long been a point of contention in the country, with critics accusing it of using them to support Iran's regional agenda to the detriment of Lebanon.

Hezbollah is also facing some scrutiny from its core support base, the Shiite community.

In online petitions posted earlier this month, hundreds of Lebanese public figures, including legal experts and human rights advocates, called for Lebanon's army to be deployed in Nabatieh and Tyre, two of southern Lebanon's largest cities.

"This city does not belong to any political group," said the signatories in the Nabatieh petition, referring to Hezbollah.

Features

Fall of Mokha Leaves Humanitarian Crisis in Its Wake, Threatens Shipping

The Houthi escalation has forced thousands of Yemeni families to flee their homes. (AFP)

Aden: Waddah Aljaleel وMohammed Nasser

08:22-13 September 2026 AD ـ 01 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1448 AH

Aden: Waddah Aljaleel وMohammed Nasser

08:22-13 September 2026 AD ـ 01 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1448 AH

Fall of Mokha Leaves Humanitarian Crisis in Its Wake, Threatens Shipping

The Houthi escalation has forced thousands of Yemeni families to flee their homes. (AFP)

Those who had not fled the southwestern Yemeni coastal city of Mokha awoke Thursday to a grim military and humanitarian reality after the Houthi group seized full control of the city and its strategic port and extended its reach toward the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

As military developments accelerate, threatening international shipping, the humanitarian crisis is worsening, pushing tens of thousands of civilians to the brink.

With little time to consider their options, thousands of civilians in western Taiz and southern Hodeidah were forced to flee after the Houthis carried out raids and arrests in villages and communities they had entered, amid fears of reprisals and reports of looting targeting residents and their property.

Mokha endured a night of panic after residents and wounded fighters were told to evacuate their homes and flee following the Houthis’ announcement that they had seized the Khalid camp and Jabal al-Nar, east of the city. Houthi forces also continued advancing through the Mawza district, which borders the coastal strip to the east, making the city’s encirclement from all sides appear only a matter of time.

Warnings broadcast over loudspeakers and radio communications triggered widespread panic during the first hours of the night and continued into the morning.

Residents described harrowing scenes of thousands of families fleeing villages and areas in western Taiz and southern Hodeidah, some on foot and others in cars or on motorcycles. Some took whatever livestock and possessions they could save.

They told Asharq Al-Awsat that, for many families, displacement was not planned but an urgent flight from fear, forcing them to leave behind their homes, land and livelihoods.

Those unable to leave found themselves trapped amid fear and uncertainty as raids and arrests continued, according to residents, alongside reports of looting and theft.

Confusion and flight

Human rights activist Amina Mohammed told Asharq Al-Awsat that she was preparing dinner for her family when they learned of warnings to evacuate the city.

The news threw everyone in the house into confusion. Initially unable to believe the warnings, they went outside to check and were confronted by scenes of panic, with hundreds of people of all ages running south.

Mohammed and her family immediately returned home, gathered whatever belongings they could and joined the exodus. By sunrise, they had reached Yemen’s interim capital, Aden. The road between Mokha and Aden remained heavily congested until late Thursday.

Medical sources, who fled after the Houthi takeover, said armed fighters stormed hospitals and health facilities as soon as they took control of the city. They detained wounded patients and began questioning them as suspected fighters in an effort to obtain military information.

The fighters also searched records and documents and ordered administrative staff to disclose patients’ medical information.

The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that doctors, nurses and other hospital workers were also detained and questioned, prompting many medical personnel, who were not on duty during the raids, to flee the city.

The Houthis also carried out a wave of arrests in streets, homes, shops and public facilities, prompting most remaining residents to stay indoors.

Humanitarian shock

Mohammed al-Zaghrouri was saying goodbye to the manager of his new motorcycle spare-parts shop, which he had opened only weeks earlier, and preparing to spend the evening with friends he had met since arriving in Mokha. The manager was heading home to spend the night with his family.

Suddenly, both men changed course and headed for Aden.

Al-Zaghrouri told Asharq Al-Awsat that they were stunned by the sight of frightened residents running through the streets. Within seconds, they realized they too had to join them.

They rushed back to the shop to retrieve whatever cash and small valuables they could carry. Within hours, al-Zaghrouri was driving out of the city with the manager and his family, lamenting the effort and money they had left behind.

Mokha’s fall was more than a military shift. It dealt a severe humanitarian blow reflected in immediate UN assessments.

According to the United Nations Population Fund, escalating fighting in Taiz and along Yemen’s West Coast displaced about 40,000 people. The International Organization for Migration said the sharp escalation had forced more than 18,500 people to flee within days, with the numbers rising by the hour.

The IOM also warned of dangerous “secondary displacement” affecting families that had previously settled in camps in districts, including Hays and Mawza, only to find themselves fleeing fighting once again.

Field reports by rights groups indicated that those escaping faced extremely harsh conditions, with more than 100 families forced to spend the night among rocky outcrops and rugged mountain areas in western rural Taiz without basic necessities.

The displacement coincided with stringent Houthi restrictions that prevented some residents in combat zones from leaving, amid accusations that civilians were being used as human shields.

Pledge to counter terrorist threats

As displacement continues, families who have fled need safety, shelter, food, water and fuel, as well as protection and assistance in reuniting relatives separated during their escape, particularly children and older people.

Separately, local authorities in the interim capital, Aden, and the governorates of Abyan and Lahj issued a joint statement saying the armed forces had overcome the initial shock and confusion, regained their balance and were fully prepared to confront any challenges.

The statement cited broad popular support and public momentum to confront the Houthis and thwart the ambitions of the “Iranian project in the region.”

The authorities said they continued to monitor security conditions and public services, while state institutions remained operational. They pledged to counter terrorist threats, protect citizens and property, and preserve security and stability in coordination with the relevant government, security and military bodies.

They urged residents to remain calm and vigilant, disregard rumors, obtain information from official sources, cooperate with the relevant authorities and report any suspicious movements or activities.

Features

'Second Life': Nepal Tunnel Survivor Recalls Ordeal

A man carrying his belongings walks past a damaged house in the aftermath of flash floods at Trishuli in Nepal's Nuwakot district on September 11, 2026. (Photo by Prakash MATHEMA / AFP)

Asharq Al Awsat

07:52-13 September 2026 AD ـ 01 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1448 AH

Asharq Al Awsat

07:52-13 September 2026 AD ـ 01 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1448 AH

'Second Life': Nepal Tunnel Survivor Recalls Ordeal

A man carrying his belongings walks past a damaged house in the aftermath of flash floods at Trishuli in Nepal's Nuwakot district on September 11, 2026. (Photo by Prakash MATHEMA / AFP)

For 10 days, Nepali hydropower worker Sanjay Sah survived in darkness inside a flooded tunnel, drinking muddy water and losing all sense of time as he desperately prayed for rescue.

When a disaster response team finally pulled him to safety on September 4, Sah's first question showed how deeply the ordeal had disoriented him, said AFP.

"When I was rescued I first asked, how many days has it been?" Sah, 30, told AFP in an interview, while on his way back home in Saptari district Sunday.

"He said that it has been 10 days. I thought it had been just a few days."

Sah was among hundreds of workers at a series of hydropower projects hit by the catastrophic August 26 flood, triggered by a glacial mountain collapse on the China-Nepal border.

Sah's extraordinary survival was a rare ray of hope after a disaster that killed at least 1,429 people and left more than 5,640 missing, the majority in Nepal.

Struggling to hold back tears as friends and family welcomed him with garlands and a cake, Sah recalled how the disaster struck with stunning speed.

"I was on duty, and then suddenly an unthinkable flood hit us, with tsunami-like waves that were several meters tall," he said.

Workers had received warnings that floodwaters were approaching, but did not get enough time to escape, he said.

"We did get information to stay alert, that a big flood is coming. As much as possible, we tried to be alert and evacuate our friends," Sah said.

"But the water did not give us much time... we shut down everything, and tried to rescue and evacuate our friends."

Within minutes, however, the tunnel was engulfed by raging waters.

The sheer scale of the flood was unlike anything witnesses had seen before, with the government pointing the finger at the dire impact of rising global temperatures on Nepal's Himalayan mountains.

- 'Divine energy' -

Separated from his colleagues, Sah found himself stranded with little idea whether anyone would ever reach him.

His Hindu faith helped carry him through the days of darkness and isolation.

"I survived because of my deep belief and confidence," he said.

"I was chanting Maha Mantra (Hindu prayers), and the divine energy I received because of that allowed me to not be scared or despair," he said.

"I was able to stay there."

With no clean water to drink, he survived on whatever he could find.

"There was water, but it was muddy," he said. "I only had that."

The darkness and isolation might have been overwhelming, but Sah was not entirely alone.

Another trapped worker, Kabir Maharjan, 45, had survived nearby.

"We were separated but speaking to each other."

The ability to hear another human voice offered a lifeline to Sah.

Eventually, after days of excavation and painstaking rescue efforts, search teams broke through to the trapped men and brought them out alive.

Sah's wife, Lakshmi Kumari Sah, said she never gave up hope of seeing her husband again.

"God has helped us, we had our hopes," she said, holding her daughter in her arms.

Sah, who spent several days recuperating in a Kathmandu hospital, says he has mixed emotions.

"I am happy, but I feel sad too," he said. "I was able to get a second life, to survive there. But many of our friends were there."

As rescuers continue searching through the tunnels, Sah urged authorities not to abandon the effort.

One Chinese worker was rescued on September 5, the day after Sah -- but no signs of life have been heard since.

"I hope the government continues its search and rescue. It is possible there might still be someone alive," he said.

"Or they will be able to find bodies of friends who have passed away and hand them over to their families."

Death of Iran’s Raisi Could Stir Race for Khamenei Succession, Insiders Say

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