What's in Israel's Three-Phase Gaza Ceasefire Roadmap

US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the conviction of former US President Donald J. Trump on 34 felony counts in his hush money trial, before announcing a proposal for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 31 May 2024. EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS / POOL
US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the conviction of former US President Donald J. Trump on 34 felony counts in his hush money trial, before announcing a proposal for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 31 May 2024. EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS / POOL
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What's in Israel's Three-Phase Gaza Ceasefire Roadmap

US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the conviction of former US President Donald J. Trump on 34 felony counts in his hush money trial, before announcing a proposal for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 31 May 2024. EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS / POOL
US President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the conviction of former US President Donald J. Trump on 34 felony counts in his hush money trial, before announcing a proposal for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 31 May 2024. EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS / POOL

US President Joe Biden unveiled a three-phase Israeli proposal to end the war in Gaza on Friday, which includes a ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas, said AFP.
Here are the key elements of the "comprehensive" plan that the 81-year-old called a "roadmap to an enduring ceasefire."
- Phase One -
Biden said the first phase includes a "full and complete ceasefire" lasting six weeks, with Israeli forces withdrawing from "all populated areas of Gaza."
Hamas would release "a number" of hostages captured in the October 7 attacks on Israel, including women, the elderly and the wounded. The remains of some hostages who had been killed would also be returned.
US hostages held by Hamas would also be freed, Biden said, adding that "we want them home."
Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners would be released in exchange.
Palestinian civilians would be allowed to return to their "homes and neighborhoods" throughout Gaza, including in the north, which has been devastated by months of Israeli bombing.
Humanitarian aid would "surge" to 600 trucks a day entering Gaza, while the international community would deliver hundreds of thousands of temporary shelters and housing units.
During the initial six-week period, Israel and Hamas would "negotiate the necessary arrangements to get to phase two, which is a permanent end to hostilities."
The ceasefire would also be extended if the negotiations continue, with mediators the United States, Egypt and Qatar working to ensure they continue, Biden said.
Phase Two
Israeli forces would completely withdraw from Gaza under the second phase of the plan, lasting around another six weeks.
Hamas would release "all remaining living hostages" including male Israeli soldiers. This has been a key sticking point for Hamas in the past.
If both sides keep to the deal it will lead to the "cessation of hostilities permanently," Biden quoted the Israeli proposal as saying.
Phase Three
A major reconstruction and stabilization plan for Gaza would begin, backed by the US and the international community.
Homes, schools and hospitals would be rebuilt, Biden said. He would also work with regional partners to ensure it happens in a way that "does not allow Hamas to re-arm."
The reconstruction phase would take between three and five years, a senior US official said.
The final remains of any hostages who had been killed would be returned in the third phase.
What if it goes wrong?
Biden said that if Hamas "fails to fulfill its commitments under the deal, Israel can resume military operations."
But he added that Egypt and Qatar would work to make Hamas stick to the terms, while the United States would do the same for Israel.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.