Proposed Gaza Ceasefire Puts Netanyahu at a Crossroads That Could Shape His Legacy 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a ceremony for the “Remembrance Day for the Fallen of Israel's Wars and Victims of Terrorism” at Yad LeBanim in Jerusalem, Israel, Sunday, May 12, 2024. (AP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a ceremony for the “Remembrance Day for the Fallen of Israel's Wars and Victims of Terrorism” at Yad LeBanim in Jerusalem, Israel, Sunday, May 12, 2024. (AP)
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Proposed Gaza Ceasefire Puts Netanyahu at a Crossroads That Could Shape His Legacy 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a ceremony for the “Remembrance Day for the Fallen of Israel's Wars and Victims of Terrorism” at Yad LeBanim in Jerusalem, Israel, Sunday, May 12, 2024. (AP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a ceremony for the “Remembrance Day for the Fallen of Israel's Wars and Victims of Terrorism” at Yad LeBanim in Jerusalem, Israel, Sunday, May 12, 2024. (AP)

The ceasefire proposal announced by President Joe Biden has placed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a crossroads, with either path likely to shape the legacy of Israel’s longest-serving and deeply divisive leader.

The proposal offers the possibility of ending Israel's war against Hamas, returning scores of hostages held by the armed group and quieting the northern border with Lebanon.

But it would also likely shatter Netanyahu’s governing coalition, potentially sending him into the opposition and making him more vulnerable to a conviction in his corruption trial. The full withdrawal of Israeli forces called for in the agreement could allow Hamas to claim victory and reconstitute itself.

Netanyahu’s rejection of the deal, on the other hand, could deepen Israel’s international isolation, worsen ties with an American administration eager to wind down the war and expose him to accusations of having abandoned the hostages to save his own skin.

It’s a conundrum, and that may explain the strange choreography of Biden’s Friday night address: An American president, announcing what he says is an Israeli proposal, during the Jewish sabbath, when Israel’s political class goes largely silent.

Netanyahu acknowledged the proposal, which has been shared with Hamas through mediators, but then appeared to contradict Biden’s remarks. He said Israel remains committed to dismantling Hamas’ military and governing capabilities and that any talk of a permanent ceasefire before then was a “nonstarter.”

On Monday, he said the destruction of Hamas is “part of the proposal” and was quoted as telling a closed parliamentary hearing that Israel reserves the right to return to war if its objectives are not met.

But it has never been clear what the destruction of Hamas entails or whether it's even possible. Biden said Israel had degraded Hamas to the point where it could no longer carry out an Oct. 7-style attack, and that that by continuing the war, Israel risked getting bogged down in Gaza.

But Netanyahu appears to be seeking a much bigger victory.

‘NETANYAHU’S ENDGAME IS TO SURVIVE’ Netanyahu’s critics fear he will reject any ceasefire to appease his ultranationalist governing partners, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. They want to continue the war, fully reoccupy Gaza and rebuild Jewish settlements there.

They have already vowed to leave the government if the proposal announced by Biden comes to pass. Netanyahu’s political opponents have offered a safety net if he reaches a deal to release hostages but they are unlikely to help him stay in office long-term.

“Everything that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich demand or threaten to do, you see Netanyahu is very attentive to that,” said Tal Schneider, an Israeli political commentator. “Netanyahu’s endgame is to survive.”

Netanyahu’s current government, formed in late 2022 after five consecutive elections, is the most nationalist and religious in Israel’s history. Months before the war, it pushed policies that entrenched Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, deepened the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community’s reliance on state subsidies and set in motion an overhaul of the judicial system that tore the country apart.

The coalition initially had a slim majority of 64 seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament - enough to govern but with a fragility that would keep Netanyahu’s fate tied to the whims of any of the smaller parties that form the government.

A VETERAN OF ‘DIFFICULT' POLITICS Shortly after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack ignited the war in Gaza, Benny Gantz, a former military chief and a top political rival of Netanyahu, joined the government in a show of unity. Netanyahu, Gantz and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant formed a three-man War Cabinet to direct the offensive.

Mazal Mualem, a Netanyahu biographer, said that effort largely succeeded in sidelining the ultranationalists and allowing Netanyahu to govern in a more pragmatic mold that has defined his 17 years in office going back to the 1990s.

She pointed to Israel’s limited response to an aerial attack by Iran in April, which Ben-Gvir criticized as “weak,” and to a ceasefire and hostage release deal reached with Hamas in November that Smotrich had initially opposed but later voted for.

“Over the years, Bibi has taught himself to do what he wants to do in difficult political environments,” she said, referring to Netanyahu by his popular nickname.

But Gantz has threatened to quit the government unless Netanyahu lays out a postwar plan by June 8, which would leave him far more reliant on Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.

Netanyahu’s decision to press ahead with Israel’s massive military campaign in Gaza as scores of hostages languish in captivity has opened him up to fierce criticism from many Israelis, including families of the captives. Thousands have joined weekly mass protests.

“The government of Israel has given up on the hostages,” Yehi Yehud, who has an adult child being held hostage in Gaza, told Israeli Army Radio. “Bibi, you don’t have the permission or the moral validity to sacrifice them on the altar of your political survival.”

OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS Netanyahu’s hard-line stance has also weighed heavily on Israel’s relations with its closest ally, the United States, which has provided crucial military support but expressed exasperation with civilian casualties and the lack of any realistic Israeli postwar plans.

Internationally, it has exposed Israel to charges of genocide, which it denies, and a potential international arrest warrant against Netanyahu himself.

In his address on Friday, Biden appeared to be offering Netanyahu a way out: Claim victory by saying a battered Hamas can no longer mount an Oct. 7-style attack, bring all the hostages home and then work with the US and Arab nations to build a new regional security architecture.

But the fear of losing power could prevail.

Netanyahu has spent years nurturing an image that only he can lead Israel through its myriad diplomatic and security challenges. That legacy suffered a major blow on Oct. 7, with many Israelis directly blaming him for the most devastating security failure in the country’s history. Public opinion polls indicate that Netanyahu is trailing behind Gantz and would struggle to form a government if elections were held today.

For all their threats, his far-right allies are in a similar predicament. They would likely join him in the opposition if early elections are held, losing the power he has granted them over the Israeli police and settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank.

If Netanyahu can hold his coalition together until the next scheduled elections in 2026, he might be able to rehabilitate his image. His poll numbers have already started to climb from the depths they hit after Oct. 7 as he has presented himself as withstanding international pressure to end the war.

Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu adviser, said Netanyahu’s wartime decision-making has less to do with immediate political survival and more with securing a legacy that would not be entirely overshadowed by Oct. 7. That requires some kind of victory over Hamas.

“From a historical perspective, Netanyahu’s only option is to go all the way,” he said. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich “are helping him reach that destination, to keep his head above water.”



Ukraine's Earth Riches Are Rare and Difficult to Reach

 Ukraine has huge mineral resources and some coal mines are still operating despite Russia's invasion but huge investment will be needed to reach its rare earths. (AFP)
Ukraine has huge mineral resources and some coal mines are still operating despite Russia's invasion but huge investment will be needed to reach its rare earths. (AFP)
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Ukraine's Earth Riches Are Rare and Difficult to Reach

 Ukraine has huge mineral resources and some coal mines are still operating despite Russia's invasion but huge investment will be needed to reach its rare earths. (AFP)
Ukraine has huge mineral resources and some coal mines are still operating despite Russia's invasion but huge investment will be needed to reach its rare earths. (AFP)

Ukraine's soils hold some five percent of the world's mineral resources, which is what US President Donald Trump is anxious to secure, but not all of them are yet exploited -- or maybe even exploitable, according to experts.

Ukraine ranks 40th among mineral-producing countries, all categories combined (including coal), according to the 2024 edition of World Mining Data. It was the world's 10th largest producer of iron in 2022.

Geologists, including at France's Bureau of Geological and Mining Research (BRGM), found more than 100 resources, including iron, manganese and uranium, in a study of Ukraine published in 2023.

Minerals can be described as critical or strategic by countries for their economy or their energy production. The United States designates about 50 and the European Union more than 30.

The European Commission said: "Ukraine is a significant global supplier of titanium and is a potential source of over 20 critical raw materials."

It is a notable producer of manganese (the world's eighth largest producer, according to World Mining Data), titanium (11th) and graphite (14th), which is essential for electric batteries.

Ukraine has also said it "possesses one of the largest lithium deposits in Europe". However, the government added that the soft metal it is not yet extracted.

Rare earth elements (REE) are a very specific classification of 17 metals within the much wider category of critical minerals.

Ukraine is not known for its reserves of rare earths, which are essential for screens, drones, wind turbines, and electric motors. Trump has particularly declared he wants rare earths and demanded an accord on getting minerals in return for US aid for Ukraine to fight its war with Russia.

"Ukraine has several deposits containing rare earth elements" but none of these deposits have been mined, said Elena Safirova, a Ukraine specialist at the US Geological Survey.

In 2023, the BRGM said Ukraine has "significant REE resources" but that further exploration and development would require heavy investment.

The Ukrainian government said "rare earth metals are known to exist in six deposits". It said investment of $300 million would be needed to develop the Novopoltavske deposit, "which is one of the largest in the world".

Technically, some of the elements cited by the Ukrainian government (tantalum, niobium, beryllium, strontium, magnetite) are not on the list of 17 rare earths.

And some of the Ukrainian government projections are based on "a Soviet-era assessment of difficult-to-access rare earths deposits," rating agency S&P said in February.

Because the country's rare earths may be too low in concentration or too difficult to access, "Ukraine's deposits of rare earth elements might not be profitable to extract", S&P said.