‘Iraqi Resistance’ Ready for ‘Wider War’ in Lebanon

Iran's acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani and Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein arrive for a joint news conference in Baghdad, Iraq June 13, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
Iran's acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani and Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein arrive for a joint news conference in Baghdad, Iraq June 13, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
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‘Iraqi Resistance’ Ready for ‘Wider War’ in Lebanon

Iran's acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani and Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein arrive for a joint news conference in Baghdad, Iraq June 13, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
Iran's acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani and Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein arrive for a joint news conference in Baghdad, Iraq June 13, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

When Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein warned of the outbreak of war in Lebanon, his disturbing words were expected to receive a stormy response from Iraqi factions loyal to Iran about preparations to support Lebanon’s Hezbollah. But this did not happen.

On June 13, Hussein was speaking in a joint press conference with his acting Iranian counterpart, Ali Bagheri Kani, and without prior context, he fired a “warning shot” about South Lebanon, while Baghdad is committed to the truce under a government that is increasingly admired by the Americans.

“If a war breaks out there, the entire region will be affected, not just Lebanon,” Hussein said.

For many, the words of the Iraqi chief diplomat were a “message” based on information provided by the Iranian visitor, Bagheri Kani, who, two weeks before his arrival in Baghdad, was holding “normal” meetings in Beirut and Damascus about the “close and lasting partnership.”

Two figures in the Coordination Framework told Asharq Al-Awsat that when Kani arrived in Baghdad, he spoke with Iraqi officials about “a possible war that Israel is planning in South Lebanon.”

In an attempt to understand the position of the military factions, Asharq Al-Awsat spoke to an Iraqi faction leader, who said: “We were asked about our position if the Lebanon front were to witness further escalation. We replied: We are ready, (...) we will go there.”

A diplomat confirmed that Bagheri had not made the request “in this manner,” while an Iraqi expert interpreted Hussein’s words as an attempt to achieve “political balance between the government and the resistance,” ruling out the chances of a “wider war”.

Who is seeking to expand the war, Iran or Israel?

For months, the regions of South Lebanon and northern Israel have been witnessing the most violent exchange of attacks since the 2006 war, within the framework of unconventional rules of engagement that make it a war in doses, with high costs, especially on the side of Hezbollah in the South.

Lebanese sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the toll of the past months is equivalent to the damage of a comprehensive war.

Amos Hochstein, advisor to US President Joe Biden, who arrived in Israel on Monday, and from there to Beirut, conveyed a message to dissuade Netanyahu from any possible escalation that might push Iran to intervene directly in Lebanon, through its arms in Iraq.

Aqeel Abbas, a political science professor in Washington, believes that Netanyahu “wants this war more than Hezbollah and Iran,” because the latter wants to maintain the pattern of frequent strikes from South Lebanon to ease pressure on Hamas in Gaza.

Hezbollah itself also wants to maintain the “dynamic of deterrence” at its current level, as any open military operation by the Israelis will annihilate the Lebanese infrastructure, according to Abbas.

Iran waves the Hezbollah card

Before Bagheri Kani’s visit to Baghdad, Iran was transmitting messages to the Iraqis suggesting that it was facing three intractable problems: The vacuum left by the death of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdullahian, the enormous pressure from the Americans and the West regarding the nuclear program, and Tehran’s position in the Gaza ceasefire deal, which will ultimately force it to abandon one of its axes in the region.

In this context, Iran is seeking to put the South Lebanon card on the table to improve its conditions in the negotiations. It is not clear how this hypothesis fits with the case of Hezbollah, as many observers say that the group is exhausted and limited in its movement. However, the Iraqi politician responded by saying: “No one has yet confirmed the fact that Hezbollah is exhausted, while it can at any time cause a harmful blow to the Israelis.”

To a large extent, Aqeel Abbas agrees with this suggestion, pointing to an Israeli and American concern over “Hezbollah’s military and technological capabilities,” even after months of attrition.

“Hands on the trigger, Lebanon”

When the Iraqi minister issued his warning on Lebanon, Baghdad was at a safe distance from the flames of the Gaza war in the region. The government was able to maintain the truce with the US forces for months, while Prime Minister Mohammad Shiaa al-Sudani tried to balance between Iran’s requirements and the ambitions of the factions.

Since the death of Raisi, the leaders of the Shiite parties and factions have not heard many important messages from the Iranians.

A Shiite faction leader in Baghdad, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity, said that unannounced visits by Iranian military figures to Iraq have decreased since Raisi’s death.

He noted that before Bagheri Kani’s visits to Baghdad and Erbil, the Iranians addressed direct questions to the Hezbollah Brigades and the Nujaba Movement about their willingness to participate in the South Lebanon confrontations with Israel.

The faction leader told Asharq Al-Awsat: “We told them, yes, of course. Hands on the trigger...”

Hezbollah does not want the Iraqis’ involvement

“Indeed, we are preparing for any emergency in Lebanon (...) we know what the crown jewel of the resistance in the region (Hezbollah) is facing,” said a field commander of an influential Shiite faction, which is active in Nineveh Governorate (northern Iraq). He also claimed that he informed the IRGC about his readiness to fight alongside the resistance in Lebanon.

It seems that Tehran wants the “concerned parties” to express this position publicly, while Hezbollah is under enormous pressure by the Israelis who are planning for a wider war with the aim of disintegrating the “resistance in South Lebanon.”

However, the participation of the Iraqi factions in a war alongside Hezbollah is not guaranteed. Even though the Iraqis are offering “human equipment,” the Lebanese faction has not informed any of the “resistance comrades” that they would be allowed to deploy in the field, on Lebanese territory.

The leaders of the two Shiite factions in Baghdad and Nineveh agree that “(Hezbollah) will not welcome the Iraqis, because it views them as unqualified, lack a cohesive entity, and are at best bad allies, with countless problems in decision-making.”

What increases the conviction that the Iraqi factions will not engage in the South Lebanon War is the rare understanding between the Iranians and the government in Baghdad to protect the existing formula of stability.

A senior official in the government of Adel Abdul Mahdi said: “Iraq is the crown jewel of the Iranians, more than Hezbollah, and they will not risk it in the South Lebanon war.” He added that Hussein’s words were a form of “pressure to prevent war, not the contrary.”

Abbas believes that Tehran does not want to facilitate [Donald] Trump’s victory by striking the Americans under the mandate of his rival, Biden.

In the context, the former Iraqi official stated that Iran wants to keep the war away from Iraq’s borders, because “they are now keener on calm in Iraq.”

The Syrian model in Lebanon

The former Iraqi official said “a comprehensive war is only present in the imagination of the Lebanese.”

However, if such a war erupted, “Hezbollah would not likely need the Iraqi brigades.”

But if war breaks out, “Iran will not leave Hezbollah alone. This will not happen (...). It will definitely do something,” said the official.

A pessimistic scenario indicates that the “broader” war will break out in South Lebanon, pushing Iran to resort to the Syrian model.

The Iraqi official said: “This would mean dividing the map of Lebanon according to certain calculations, between factions from Iraq, Yemen, and Afghanistan...”

However, there is no decisive information regarding a broader war in the South and the engagement of pro-Iranian Iraqi factions. Iran is trying to use all the cards with caution to make amendments in its favor in the “day after” the Gaza deal, and fears that the “arenas” it manages will spiral into a war in which it will lose the ability to maneuver.



As Trump Seeks to Be a Peacemaker, Netanyahu Leaves Washington without Breakthrough on Gaza Deal

 Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, arrive for a meeting at the Pentagon, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, arrive for a meeting at the Pentagon, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
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As Trump Seeks to Be a Peacemaker, Netanyahu Leaves Washington without Breakthrough on Gaza Deal

 Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, arrive for a meeting at the Pentagon, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP)
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, left, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, arrive for a meeting at the Pentagon, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in Washington. (AP)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to Washington this week netted President Donald Trump another nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize he covets, but the ceasefire the US leader sought for the war in Gaza didn't emerge.

Despite Trump throwing his weight behind a push for a 60-day truce between Israel and Hamas, no breakthrough was announced during Netanyahu's visit, a disappointment for a president who wants to be known as a peacemaker and has hinged his reputation on being a dealmaker.

“He prides himself or being able to make deals, so this is another test case,” said Rachel Brandenburg, the Israel Policy Forum's Washington managing director and senior fellow.

Trump’s ability to strike a ceasefire deal in the 21-month war will reveal the boundaries of his influence with Netanyahu, especially after their recent joint strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities that both leaders touted at the White House this week.

Beyond the back-to-back meetings Trump and Netanyahu had at the White House this week, there was little public evidence of progress at a time when the Republican US president is pushing to end the fighting.

‘Closer than we’ve been,’ but challenges remain

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that when it comes to a ceasefire in Gaza, “we’re closer than we’ve been in quite a while and we’re hopeful, but we also recognize there’s still some challenges in the way.”

Rubio, who spoke to reporters while traveling in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, also said that Trump “wants to see a ceasefire and we’ve invested a lot of time and energy.”

Beyond ending the bloodshed, ending the war in Gaza would give Trump more leeway to strike some of the broader agreements he seeks in the Middle East, such as expanding the Abraham Accords that started in his first term and normalizing relations with Syria’s new government.

“He wants to be the one who gets hostages home and see the war in Gaza end so he can move on to some of these bigger deals,” Brandenburg said.

Even if a truce is reached, Netanyahu has promised fighting will continue if necessary until Hamas is destroyed. The group, meanwhile, has conditioned the release of the remaining hostages on Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, a stipulation Israel has been unwilling to accept.

Trump-Netanyahu relationship sees a rebound

It’s unclear how much pressure Trump put on Netanyahu in their private talks this week. But the two leaders came into the visit seeming more aligned than ever — at least for now — fresh off the president having twice come to the Israeli leader’s assistance.

Trump made the risky move to join Israel’s attacks on Iran last month, delivering pivotal US firepower while alarming world leaders and some of Trump’s “America first” supporters. Trump also inserted himself into Israel’s domestic affairs, calling for Netanyahu’s yearslong corruption trial to be thrown out.

That’s a marked turnaround in their relationship, which had appeared somewhat strained in recent years.

Trump shocked some of his fellow Republicans and staunch supporters of Israel by publicly criticizing Netanyahu not long after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, setting off the conflict.

He said that Netanyahu “was not prepared” for the attack from Hamas and that Netanyahu had “let us down” just before the US killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

Even during his last visit to the White House earlier this year, Netanyahu seemed caught off guard when Trump announced the US would hold talks with Iran over its nuclear deal rather than embrace Netanyahu’s push for military pressure.

With their military objectives aligning for a time on Iran, the Israeli leader has worked to foster a warmer relationship.

In a video he released after the US strikes, Netanyahu spoke — in English instead of Hebrew — of the “unshakeable alliance” between their countries while repeatedly praising Trump.

“His leadership today has created a pivot of history that can help lead the Middle East and beyond to a future of prosperity and peace,” Netanyahu said.

Netanyahu tries the charm offensive on Trump

In his visit to Washington this week, the Israeli leader also showed he knows how to praise the president in a way that matters greatly to him when he unveiled a letter in front of reporters and cameras to announce he had nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Those gestures, though, may only carry him so far as Trump pushes for a deal that Netanyahu may not be able to accept.

“I think if Netanyahu stands in the way too much for too long of the sort of loftier objectives Trump has set out for himself,” Brandenburg said, “Netanyahu will be cast aside as more of a problem than an asset.”

Netanyahu, like many Israelis, believes Trump is the greatest friend they have ever had in the White House and is deeply grateful for the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites last month.

But the Israeli leader is also under mounting public pressure to end the war as hostages languish in captivity and more Israeli soldiers are killed in guerrilla-style attacks.

Israel’s military success against Iran has given him some political capital, but if he ends the war while leaving Hamas intact, he will have broken his repeated promise of “total victory.”

His far-right coalition partners have threatened to bolt if he does that, sparking early elections that could end his nearly unbroken 16 years in power and leave him more vulnerable to long-standing corruption charges.

That may prove too heavy a price for delivering the kind of lasting ceasefire sought by Trump and demanded by Hamas. Instead, Netanyahu, who is seen as a masterful politician by friends and foes alike, is expected to thread the needle.

In a video statement on Thursday, Netanyahu said that he would agree to a “temporary” 60-day ceasefire in return for the release of half the hostages remaining in Gaza, many of whom are believed dead, and that he would begin negotiations on ending the war.

But he conditioned any lasting ceasefire on Hamas giving up its arms – something the fighters have refused to do as long as Israel occupies parts of Gaza.

If Hamas can be disarmed through negotiations, “so much the better,” Netanyahu said. “If it is not achieved through negotiations in 60 days, we will achieve it in other ways — by using force.”