For Iran’s Youth, Legacy of 2022 Clashes Shapes Presidential Race 

People walk through the old main bazaar of Tehran, Iran, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP)
People walk through the old main bazaar of Tehran, Iran, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP)
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For Iran’s Youth, Legacy of 2022 Clashes Shapes Presidential Race 

People walk through the old main bazaar of Tehran, Iran, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP)
People walk through the old main bazaar of Tehran, Iran, Thursday, June 13, 2024. (AP)

Atousa joined angry protests against Iran's rulers in 2022 that loyalists like Reza helped crush. Two years on, the two young Iranians' political views remain at odds, reflecting a rift that will shape the outcome of presidential elections this week.

Now 22, Atousa says she will abstain from voting in Friday's ballot to choose a successor to Ebrahim Raisi after his death in a helicopter crash, regarding the exercise with derision. But Reza, 26, a religiously devout member of the hardline Basij militia, intends to vote, a contrasting view of the worth of the election that underscores the division in Iran.

All six candidates - five hardliners and a low-key moderate approved by a hardline watchdog body - have been wooing youthful voters in speeches and campaign messages, using social media to reach the 60% of the 85 million population aged under 30.

"This election, like all elections in Iran, is a circus. Why should I vote when I want the regime to be toppled?" Atousa told Reuters. She declined to be identified by her full name for security reasons.

"Even if it was a free and fair election and if all candidates could enter the race, the president in Iran has no power," she said.

The hashtag #ElectionCircus has been widely posted on social media platform X by Iranians in the past few weeks, while some Iranians at home and abroad have called for an election boycott.

Under Iran's clerical system, the elected president runs the government day-to-day but his powers are circumscribed by those of the hardline supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who has the last word on top issues such as nuclear and foreign policy.

'RELIGIOUS DUTY TO VOTE'

Like many women and young Iranians, Atousa joined protests in 2022 sparked by the death of a young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, in police custody, following her arrest for allegedly violating Iran's mandatory religious dress code.

The unrest spiraled into the biggest show of opposition to Iran's clerical rulers in years.

Atousa, then a student, was arrested during the protests and her dream of becoming an architect was shattered when she was expelled from university as a punishment for participating in the demonstrations.

The Basij, a plain-clothes arm of the elite Revolutionary Guards, deployed alongside uniformed security during the 2022 unrest and helped suppress demonstrations with deadly force.

Over 500 people including 71 minors were killed in the protests, hundreds injured and thousands arrested in unrest that was eventually crushed by security forces, rights groups said.

Iran carried out seven executions linked to the unrest. Authorities have not given any official estimated death toll, but said dozens of security forces were killed in "riots".

"I will sacrifice my life for the leader and the Islamic Republic. It is my religious duty to vote. My participation will strengthen the Nezam (system)," said Reza, from the low-income Nazi Abad district in south Tehran.

Reza said he will support a hardline candidate who champions Khamenei's "resistance economy", a phrase meaning economic self-sufficiency, strengthening trade ties with regional neighbors and improving economic interaction with China and Russia.

The economy is beset by mismanagement, state corruption and sanctions reimposed since 2018 after the US ditched Tehran's 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers.

Reza and Atousa, both born after the 1979 revolution, have regrets about the 2022 demonstrations, albeit for different reasons.

Reza blames the protests for bringing mounting pressure on Iran from Western countries, which imposed sanctions on Iranian security forces and officials for alleged human rights abuses. Iran accused Western powers of fomenting the unrest.

"I wish the protests had not taken place ... our enemies used it as a pretext to mount pressure on our country," he said.

Atousa looks back on that period with sadness.

"I was hopeful," she said. "I thought finally the change will come and I will be able to live a life with no suppression in a free country ... I paid a heavy price, but the regime is still here."



How France’s Macron Went from a Successful Political Newcomer to a Weakened Leader

French President Emmanuel Macron leaves the voting booth before voting in the early French parliamentary election, in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, Sunday, June 30, 2024. (AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron leaves the voting booth before voting in the early French parliamentary election, in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, Sunday, June 30, 2024. (AP)
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How France’s Macron Went from a Successful Political Newcomer to a Weakened Leader

French President Emmanuel Macron leaves the voting booth before voting in the early French parliamentary election, in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, Sunday, June 30, 2024. (AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron leaves the voting booth before voting in the early French parliamentary election, in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, Sunday, June 30, 2024. (AP)

French President Emmanuel Macron’s expected political failure in decisive parliamentary elections Sunday could paralyze the country, weaken him abroad and overshadow his legacy, just as France prepares to step into the global spotlight as host of the Paris Olympics.

France’s youngest-ever president is known on the international stage for his tireless diplomatic efforts and pro-European initiatives. Now, many wonder how he will manage to keep the reins of the country with likely no majority in parliament and a confrontational government. Constitutionally barred from running for a third consecutive term in 2027, Macron, 46, is facing a struggle not to become a lame duck.

Whatever the outcome of Sunday’s runoff, it’s not expected to be good news for Macron. French media have recently described an "end of reign" atmosphere at the Elysee presidential palace. Polls suggest Macron's centrist alliance is headed for defeat in Sunday’s runoff, after coming in third in the first round.

"It looks as if on the first ballot, the French wanted to punish their president," Paris-based political analyst Dominique Moïsi told the Associated Press.

Governing with a rival party will likely weaken Macron. If the far-right National Rally and its allies win a majority in parliament, it would place the centrist president in the awkward situation of having to work with an anti-immigration, nationalist prime minister. Otherwise, Macron may have to seek a way to form a functioning government, possibly by offering a deal to his left-wing rivals. In any case, he would no longer be able to implement his own plans, which have been based on pro-business policies meant to boost France’s economy.

"We are in the unknown. The unknown unknown," Moïsi said. "Because coalition governments are not a French tradition."

Abroad, Macron used to appear as a key world player known for his non-stop diplomatic activism. He has been deeply involved in Western steps taken to support Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. In the Middle East, France has been pushing for diplomatic efforts with its Arab partners. Earlier this year, Macron also outlined his vision for the European Union, urging the bloc of 27 nations to build its own robust defense and undertake major trade and economic reforms in order to compete with China and the US.

The French Constitution gives the president some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense. But the division of power with a prime minister from a rival party remains unclear, and without the backing of a government, Macron’s role may end up being limited.

His pro-business policies lowered unemployment but were still controversial. The job of president is Macron’s first elected office. In his 30s, Macron quit his job as a banker at Rothschild to become Socialist President Francois Hollande’s economic adviser, working for two years by Hollande’s side at the presidential palace. Then, as economy minister in Hollande’s government from 2014 to 2016, he promoted a package of measures, notably allowing more stores to open on Sundays and evenings and opening up regulated sectors of the economy.

First elected president in 2017 after leaving the Socialists, Macron was then a successful 39-year-old political newbie. He sought to make the labor market more flexible and passed new rules to make it more difficult for the unemployed to claim benefits. His government also cut taxes for businesses to boost hiring.

The yellow vest anti-government protests soon erupted against perceived social injustice, leading to Macron being dubbed the "president of the rich." He is still perceived by many as arrogant and out of touch with ordinary people. Opponents on the left accused him of destroying workers’ protections. Macron argued that unemployment has fallen from over 10% to 7.5% now and France has been ranked the most attractive European country for foreign investment in recent years.

Macron was reelected in 2022, defeating for the second consecutive time his far-right rival Marine Le Pen in the runoff of the presidential election. But he lost his parliamentary majority, even though his centrist alliance took the largest share of seats in the National Assembly. He then struggled to pass an unpopular plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, prompting months of mass protests that damaged his leadership. Last year, riots swept hundreds of cities, towns and villages after the fatal police shooting of a teenager.

Politically, the centrist leader launched his own party on a promise to do better than the mainstream right and left. But that, also, now appears as bound to fail. His call for snap elections actually pushed forward two major forces: the far-right National Rally and a broad leftist coalition including the Socialists, the greens and hard-left France Unbowed.

Macron's own camp questioned the president's political skills after he announced the surprise decision to dissolve the National Assembly last month. Bruno Le Maire, his finance minister for seven years, told France Inter radio that "this decision has created — in our country, in the French people, everywhere — concern, incomprehension, sometimes anger." Macron’s former prime minister, Edouard Philippe, accused him of having "killed" his centrist majority.

Macron's fate may become a topic for discussion next week at a NATO summit in Washington that will be the occasion for world leaders to meet with the new UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

"The paradox of the present situation is that as a result of the last two elections in Great Britain and in France, there will be more Great Britain and less France at the NATO summit," Moïsi said. "The strongest personality will be the new prime minister of Great Britain. And the weak personality will be the president of France."