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Moderate Pezeshkian Makes It to Iran Presidential Run-off

Iranian presidential candidate and reformist Massoud Pezeshkian reacts to the crowd outside a polling station where he cast his vote in the presidential election in Tehran on June 28, 2024. (AFP)
Iranian presidential candidate and reformist Massoud Pezeshkian reacts to the crowd outside a polling station where he cast his vote in the presidential election in Tehran on June 28, 2024. (AFP)
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Moderate Pezeshkian Makes It to Iran Presidential Run-off

Iranian presidential candidate and reformist Massoud Pezeshkian reacts to the crowd outside a polling station where he cast his vote in the presidential election in Tehran on June 28, 2024. (AFP)
Iranian presidential candidate and reformist Massoud Pezeshkian reacts to the crowd outside a polling station where he cast his vote in the presidential election in Tehran on June 28, 2024. (AFP)

In an election campaign dominated by hardliners, Iranian presidential hopeful Massoud Pezeshkian stood out as a moderate, backing women's rights, more social freedoms, cautious detente with the West and economic reform.

Pezeshkian narrowly beat hardline Saeed Jalili for first place in Friday's first round vote but the two men will now face a run-off election on July 5, since Pezeshkian did not secure the majority of 50% plus one vote of ballots cast needed to win outright.

Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old cardiac surgeon, lawmaker and former health minister was up against candidates who more closely reflect the fiercely anti-Western stance of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the country's ultimate decision-maker.

And yet the mild-mannered Pezeshkian narrowly won Friday's vote and made it to the run-off in the election to pick a successor to Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May.

His chances hinge on attracting votes from supporters of current hardline parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who finished third in the first round, and encouraging a young disillusioned population hungry for change but disenchanted with the country's political, social and economic crisis to vote for him again in the run-off.

Although he advocates reforms, Pezeshkian is faithful to Iran's theocratic rule with no intention of confronting the powerful security hawks and clerical rulers.

His views offer a contrast to those of Raisi, a Khamenei protege who tightened enforcement of a law curbing women's dress and took a tough stance in now-moribund negotiations with major powers to revive a 2015 nuclear deal.

Pezeshkian's election campaign gained momentum when he was endorsed by reformists, led by former President Mohammad Khatami, and when he appointed former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, a key figure in crafting the nuclear deal, as his foreign policy adviser.

Implicitly referring to the appointment of Zarif, who hardliners accuse of selling out Iran in order to reach the deal, Khamenei said on Tuesday: "Anyone who is attached to America will not be a good colleague for you".

In 2018, then-US President Donald Trump ditched the pact and reimposed sanctions on Iran, calling it "a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made." His move prompted Tehran to progressively violate the agreement's nuclear limits.

If Pezeshkian does go on to win, this would hinder Iranian hardliners who are opposed to the revival of the pact.

However, under Iran's dual system of clerical and republican rule the power to shape key state policies including foreign and nuclear affairs ultimately rests with Khamenei.

As a result, many voters are skeptical about Pezeshkian's ability to fulfil his campaign promises.

"Pezeshkian's power as the president to fulfil his campaign promises is zero," said Sholeh Mousavi, a 32-year-old teacher in Tehran, before Friday's first round of voting.

"I want reforms but Pezeshkian cannot improve the situation. I will not vote. "

Pezeshkian, the sole moderate among the six candidates who were approved by a hardline watchdog body to stand, has pledged to foster a pragmatic foreign policy and ease nuclear tensions with the West. Two hardline subsequently candidates pulled out.

A CRITIC LOYAL TO KHAMENEI

At the same time, Pezeshkian promised in TV debates and interviews not to contest Khamenei's policies, which analysts said risks further alienating the urban middle class and young voters. These groups no longer seek mere reform and instead now directly challenge the country's regime as a whole.

As a lawmaker since 2008, Pezeshkian, who is an Azeri ethnic minority and supports the rights of ethnic minorities, has criticized the clerical establishment's suppression of political and social dissent.

In 2022, Pezeshkian demanded clarification from authorities about the death of Mahsa Amini, a woman who died in custody after she was arrested for allegedly violating a law restricting women's dress. Her death sparked months of unrest across the country.

But at a Tehran University meeting earlier this month, responding to a question about students imprisoned on charges linked to anti-government protests, Pezeshkian said "political prisoners are not within my scope, and if I want to do something, I have no authority".

During the Iran-Iraq war in 1980s, Pezeshkian, who held roles as both a combatant and a physician, was tasked with the deployment of medical teams to the front lines.

He was health minister from 2001-5 in Khatami's second term.

Pezeshkian lost his wife and one of his children in a car accident in 1994. He raised his surviving two sons and a daughter alone, opting to never remarry.

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As It Attacks Iran's Nuclear Program, Israel Maintains Ambiguity about Its Own

FILE - This file image made from a video aired Friday, Jan. 7, 2005, by Israeli television station Channel 10, shows what the television station claims is Israel's nuclear facility in the southern Israeli town of Dimona, the first detailed video of the site ever shown to the public. (Channel 10 via AP, File)
FILE - This file image made from a video aired Friday, Jan. 7, 2005, by Israeli television station Channel 10, shows what the television station claims is Israel's nuclear facility in the southern Israeli town of Dimona, the first detailed video of the site ever shown to the public. (Channel 10 via AP, File)
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As It Attacks Iran's Nuclear Program, Israel Maintains Ambiguity about Its Own

FILE - This file image made from a video aired Friday, Jan. 7, 2005, by Israeli television station Channel 10, shows what the television station claims is Israel's nuclear facility in the southern Israeli town of Dimona, the first detailed video of the site ever shown to the public. (Channel 10 via AP, File)
FILE - This file image made from a video aired Friday, Jan. 7, 2005, by Israeli television station Channel 10, shows what the television station claims is Israel's nuclear facility in the southern Israeli town of Dimona, the first detailed video of the site ever shown to the public. (Channel 10 via AP, File)

Israel says it is determined to destroy Iran’s nuclear program because its archenemy's furtive efforts to build an atomic weapon are a threat to its existence.

What’s not-so-secret is that for decades Israel has been believed to be the Middle East’s only nation with nuclear weapons, even though its leaders have refused to confirm or deny their existence, The Associated Press said.

Israel's ambiguity has enabled it to bolster its deterrence against Iran and other enemies, experts say, without triggering a regional nuclear arms race or inviting preemptive attacks.

Israel is one of just five countries that aren’t party to a global nuclear nonproliferation treaty. That relieves it of international pressure to disarm, or even to allow inspectors to scrutinize its facilities.

Critics in Iran and elsewhere have accused Western countries of hypocrisy for keeping strict tabs on Iran's nuclear program — which its leaders insist is only for peaceful purposes — while effectively giving Israel's suspected arsenal a free pass.

On Sunday, the US military struck three nuclear sites in Iran, inserting itself into Israel’s effort to destroy Iran’s program.

Here's a closer look at Israel's nuclear program:

A history of nuclear ambiguity Israel opened its Negev Nuclear Research Center in the remote desert city of Dimona in 1958, under the country's first leader, Prime Minister David Ben Gurion. He believed the tiny fledgling country surrounded by hostile neighbors needed nuclear deterrence as an extra measure of security. Some historians say they were meant to be used only in case of emergency, as a last resort.

After it opened, Israel kept the work at Dimona hidden for a decade, telling United States’ officials it was a textile factory, according to a 2022 article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, an academic journal.

Relying on plutonium produced at Dimona, Israel has had the ability to fire nuclear warheads since the early 1970s, according to that article, co-authored by Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists, and Matt Korda, a researcher at the same organization.

Israel's policy of ambiguity suffered a major setback in 1986, when Dimona’s activities were exposed by a former technician at the site, Mordechai Vanunu. He provided photographs and descriptions of the reactor to The Sunday Times of London.

Vanunu served 18 years in prison for treason, and is not allowed to meet with foreigners or leave the country.

ISRAEL POSSESSES DOZENS OF NUCLEAR WARHEADS, EXPERTS SAY

Experts estimate Israel has between 80 and 200 nuclear warheads, although they say the lower end of that range is more likely.

Israel also has stockpiled as much as 1,110 kilograms (2,425 pounds) of plutonium, potentially enough to make 277 nuclear weapons, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a global security organization. It has six submarines believed to be capable of launching nuclear cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles believed to be capable of launching a nuclear warhead up to 6,500 kilometers (4,000 miles), the organization says.

Germany has supplied all of the submarines to Israel, which are docked in the northern city of Haifa, according to the article by Kristensen and Korda.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST POSE RISKS

In the Middle East, where conflicts abound, governments are often unstable, and regional alliances are often shifting, nuclear proliferation is particularly dangerous, said Or Rabinowitz, a scholar at Jerusalem's Hebrew University and a visiting associate professor at Stanford University.

“When nuclear armed states are at war, the world always takes notice because we don’t like it when nuclear arsenals ... are available for decision makers,” she said.

Rabinowitz says Israel's military leaders could consider deploying a nuclear weapon if they found themselves facing an extreme threat, such as a weapon of mass destruction being used against them.

Three countries other than Israel have refused to sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons: India, Pakistan and South Sudan. North Korea has withdrawn. Iran has signed the treaty, but it was censured last week, shortly before Israel launched its operation, by the UN's nuclear watchdog — a day before Israel attacked — for violating its obligations.

Israel's policy of ambiguity has helped it evade greater scrutiny, said Susie Snyder at the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, a group that works to promote adherence to the UN treaty.

Its policy has also shined a light on the failure of Western countries to rein in nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, she said.

They “prefer not to be reminded of their own complicity,” she said.