Israel-Hezbollah War... More Severe than ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’https://english.aawsat.com/features/5039428-israel-hezbollah-war-more-severe-%E2%80%98al-aqsa-flood%E2%80%99
Israel-Hezbollah War... More Severe than ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’
An Israeli firefighter aircraft drops flame retardant on fires smoke after rockets fired from southern Lebanon hit an area in the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel on July 4, 2024. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
Israel-Hezbollah War... More Severe than ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’
An Israeli firefighter aircraft drops flame retardant on fires smoke after rockets fired from southern Lebanon hit an area in the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel on July 4, 2024. (Photo by JACK GUEZ / AFP)
In conflicts, both sides often set traps for each other. Yet today, in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, it appears both sides are falling into their own traps.
In the current Israel-Hezbollah conflict, despite denying interest in widening the war, both are moving towards escalation.
Israel continues military drills for expansion, supported by polls showing public backing, though decreasing recently. This support concerns Tel Aviv’s military leaders, who fear the public underestimates the war’s consequences.
Former Israeli National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata warns such a war could devastate parts of Lebanon and cause significant harm in Israel, potentially resulting in around 15,000 deaths.
The Terrorism Research Institute at Reichman University conducted a study with 100 military and academic experts on potential war scenarios with Hezbollah.
Their findings were alarming: they warned that such a conflict could quickly escalate across multiple fronts, involving Iranian militias in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, alongside Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank.
The study predicted that Hezbollah could launch a daily barrage of 2,500 to 3,000 rockets for 21 days, targeting military bases, cities like Tel Aviv, and critical infrastructure such as power plants, gas fields, desalination plants, airports, and weapon depots.
This onslaught would likely cause widespread chaos among Israelis.
Furthermore, Hezbollah might employ its strategy of sending “Radwan” units to infiltrate Israeli borders and occupy towns, similar to Hamas’ actions during operation Al-Aqsa Flood on Oct. 7.
The “Gaza-style destruction” scenario was initially floated to dampen calls for the army to invade Lebanese territory.
The Israeli military, wary of right-wing political pressures and their own hesitations about war, countered by publicizing plans indicating serious readiness.
Leaked drills suggest they are preparing for a large-scale ground invasion, aiming to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, possibly further to the Zahrani River.
They state that if Hezbollah rejects a political deal to stay away from borders, the military will enforce this with force.
They detail that the war could start with intense airstrikes, similar to Gaza, followed by a ground invasion.
Military sources reveal Israel has received delayed US weapons, including smart bombs, set to be used in airstrikes on southern Beirut suburbs and the Bekaa region at least.
The Litani River lies four kilometers from the border at its closest and extends 29 kilometers at its furthest, covering 1,020 square kilometers. It includes three major cities: Tyre (175,000 residents), Bint Jbeil, and Marjayoun, housing half a million people, with over 100,000 displaced.
Occupying this entire area won’t be easy. Hezbollah is stronger than Hamas, with a more extensive tunnel network and advanced weaponry. They’ve long been prepared for this war.
If Israel plans a short 21-day war, nothing guarantees that timeline, risking entanglement in Lebanon’s challenges once again.
The Israeli military is gearing up for a long war, preparing emergency reserves in hospitals, factories, government offices, and shelters.
They fear Hezbollah could launch thousands of rockets and drones, targeting key infrastructure like power plants, water desalination facilities, and gas wells.
Recent drills also factor in possible direct Iranian involvement, which could disrupt Red Sea shipping and possibly lead to strikes on Cyprus. This means all of Israel could face serious threats.
The Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies reports that Hezbollah has already fired over 5,000 projectiles from Lebanon, causing 33 deaths and extensive damage to both civilian and military targets in Israel.
There’s growing concern about the future of northern Israel, including 28 evacuated settlements and the city of Kiryat Shmona, whose residents are uncertain when they can safely return home.
‘Caesar’s’ Partner ‘Sami’ to Asharq Al-Awsat: ‘Coalition’ Support Helped Extend Assad’s Time in Powerhttps://english.aawsat.com/features/5097028-%E2%80%98caesar%E2%80%99s%E2%80%99-partner-%E2%80%98sami%E2%80%99-asharq-al-awsat-%E2%80%98coalition%E2%80%99-support-helped-extend-assad
A portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is pictured with its frame broken, in a Syrian regime's Political Security Branch facility on the outskirts of the central city of Hama, following the capture of the area by anti-government forces, on December 7, 2024. (AFP)
‘Caesar’s’ Partner ‘Sami’ to Asharq Al-Awsat: ‘Coalition’ Support Helped Extend Assad’s Time in Power
A portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is pictured with its frame broken, in a Syrian regime's Political Security Branch facility on the outskirts of the central city of Hama, following the capture of the area by anti-government forces, on December 7, 2024. (AFP)
In the second installment of his interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Osama Othman, who smuggled files of torture that took place in the Syrian regime’s jails, recalled how he and his partner “Caesar” were shocked at how dismissive leader of the opposition “Syrian national coalition” government was of their case.
Othman, known by his codename “Sami”, said that with this attitude, the coalition helped extend the term of now ousted President Bashar al-Assad. “His reckless attitude cost us tens of thousands of lives,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
*We last stopped at the issuance of the “Caesar Act”. What happened next?
The Act was issued when the world was least interested in the Syrian revolution and the plight of the people. So, we established in the United States and later in Paris organizations that have now become the Caesar Files for Justice. The platform is now following up on the legal proceedings related to the Caesar file and others.
I can’t reveal what some of those files are yet, but of course, they are about the Syrian regime’s human rights violations. Some are also related to the impact its practices have had on the economy through its systematic destruction and demographic change it was imposing on the people. We believe that everyone who committed violations in Syria must be held to account.
Some of the violations include the illegal naturalization of people so that Assad could establish what he once called the “beneficial Syria” and a “homogeneous society”. These statements were backed by action on the ground, but whose details I can’t disclose yet because I don’t want to expose people involved in the file.
*The media had spoken of Iranians and Shiite Iraqis who were naturalized. Is this issue covered in the file?
Yes, it is. When you learn that your neighbor speaks a foreign language and acts as though he has been living in Syria for decades, you have to wonder where they came from and who brought them here. Every Syrian used to wonder who these people were. The people handling this file are Syrians who want to protect their country from this systematic and non-systematic demographic change.
This leads us to what I call the massacre that was committed against the evidence, documents and archives, not just at the security branches and prisons, but at other institutions. We all saw how the passports directorate was bombed. These places are very important because they held a lot of evidence and information. When places that important are bombed, it is to hide evidence and documents. The strikes that took place after Assad fled the country are just more crimes added to his list of violations against Syria.
*Are you saying that Assad’s agencies and Israel were working together?
I can’t make such accusations. All I am saying is that such incidents became more frequent after he fled, and you can draw your own conclusions.
Anti-government fighters gather in front of the Kuweires military airfield and academy in the eastern part of Aleppo province on December 1, 2024. (AFP)
Hezbollah Saved Assad
*Who turned the tables in Syria and extended Assad and the regime’s time in power? Do you believe the Russians were involved in the violations? What about the Iranian militias and Hezbollah?
We nearly hung posters of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in our homes in 2006. We used to weep when we learned about the martyrdom of its members. In 2006, I hosted a Lebanese family in my home in Wadi Barada in northern Damascus.
Hezbollah had openly declared that if it weren’t for its intervention, Assad would have fallen within months. That’s enough. Nasrallah said it himself and Hezbollah’s actions on the ground back his statements. So, certainly Hezbollah’s intervention in the early years of the conflict was decisive for the regime.
Other militias came pouring through soon after and we started to notice foreigners in our country. We used to hear gunmen speak in foreign languages as they roamed our streets. Right in front of my house were several people who didn’t speak a word of Arabic. They observed a peaceful rally that was mourning a martyr killed by regime shelling on the city. I never dared ask the strangers where they came from and what they were doing here. You could easily spot the foreigners in our city of al-Tall in the Damascus countryside.
They came in months after Hezbollah’s intervention. Then came Russia’s intervention in 2015 which was the most decisive. This led the rebels to become constrained to specific regions and losing territories they had captured from the regime. Iran, Russia and the militias were partners with the regime in killing the Syrian people and destroying their country. It doesn’t take much effort to prove this.
Close Calls
*Did the regime ever come close to discovering the Caesar files?
My family’s house in al-Tall was once raided by the regime. They were searching for my youngest brother because he had taken part in a peaceful demonstration or some normal everyday thing which we all did. The members of the “political security” branch raided our home. This was at the beginning of the revolution and the officer in charge still showed some decency and respect.
He came into the house and carried out his search. He took the computers that I used for my work as a civil engineer. He had found it in my brother’s room. He took everything related to the computer. I remember the officer’s name was Mohammed Jomaa. When he learned that I was a civil engineer, he lectured me about patriotism and how the nation had spared no expense so that we could earn an education – slogans that regime members are forced to memorize during indoctrination sessions.
He took my ID and told me I should head to Damascus to get it and that I should bring my brother too to collect the computer. So, I remained without an ID for some time. I couldn’t even leave my city because showing up at any checkpoint without identification would have gotten me arrested. Had I been arrested, I would have ended up as one of the Caesar file photos.
During another incident, al-Tall was being invaded by the regime after a long battle with the rebels inside the city and the displacement of nearly all its residents. I had taken my parents and siblings to the nearby city of Seydnaya and stayed home. My youngest brother could not leave al-Tall and I wanted to remain with him and to also protect the data we had. My third brother insisted on remaining with us and so we did. We were searched by the security forces on numerous occasions.
The Free Syrian Army soon withdrew from the city and the regime forces swept in, committing several massacres in al-Tall. We were then forced to flee the building we were staying in. We couldn’t stay in our own home because it was located at the entrance of the city where the invasion had begun. So, I hid the camera I had and some equipment under a pile of garbage below the building. I thought to myself: “I’ll be able to find them should I survive because the forces won’t think about searching in the garbage for such things.”
We managed to flee the city and remained away for five or six days before returning to al-Tall. It was a holiday, so security had become a bit lax and phone services were restored. While in hiding, we witnessed how a tank and sniper had taken up position on higher ground. They were ready to attack anyone who passed through the area. The three of us had basically escaped with our lives.
Syria’s seat and the flag of the revolution are seen at an Arab League summit in Doha in 2013. (AFP)
Coalition Gives Assad Indirect Support
*Aside from the regime, did anyone try to undermine, obstruct or exploit your work?
In a way, yes. Our main battle after leaving Syria was aimed at preserving this file and keeping it away from political meddling. This file is about human rights violations. It belongs to all Syrians and it should be kept away from narrow interests. At first, the coalition tried to present itself as the sponsor of the file, which was a normal thing to do.
I approached them with a friend and met with the head of the government. I was in the waiting room for four hours with people drinking tea and coffee as if they were in a cafe. It was unfortunate to listen to conversations that had nothing to do with what was happening in Syria.
After four hours, we sat down for a short meeting with the head of government and explained the file to him. “We need help that would ensure that this file would be kept out of political disputes between the various members of the opposition and others. We need to protect our loved ones who are still in Syria,” we urged him. His response to this was truly shocking. “So you think this file will shake Bashar al-Assad's throne?” he told me.
The response was disappointing and unfortunate because he was someone who was supposed to be speaking on behalf of the Syrian revolution. This revolt is the most significant one since the French Revolution in 1789.
The toppling of the regime and establishment of a state of law and justice in Syria will change the Middle East and in turn, the world. This is what the French Revolution did three centuries ago. And so, for the coalition government to respond to me in such a way was very offensive. I left the meeting feeling dejected and with my thoughts with my family that we were trying to bring from Damascus.
That moment pained me deeply. I had come all this way, put myself and others in danger, only to come across someone who was there to exploit me. It was just such a shocking moment.
*So you were disappointed with the opposition?
Disappointment doesn’t even cut it. I was saddened and dejected. Had the Caesar file been handled properly, Assad wouldn’t have remained on his throne until 2024. Such a lack of responsibility. It is this attitude that extended the life of the Syrian regime and cost tens of thousands of Syrian lives.
So, for example, if you were to hold negotiations with the regime, what cards would you have if the Caesar file wasn’t one of them? What would you even talk about? The opposition spoke at international platforms of everything from the constitution to the color of the flag, language and system of rule. Not once did it bring up the issue of the detainees.
We have long said that the detainee file was above negotiations, meaning we would not negotiate with the regime over anything before we discuss this issue. Some members of the opposition interpreted this as negotiating everything and setting this issue to the side. I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry. This is why I say that the coalition helped extend the regime’s time in power.
People search for their loved ones among corpses of victims of torture at Seydnaya Prison. (AFP)
Seydnaya Prison and the Human Press
*You compared Seydnaya Prison to the Bastille and the Syrian revolution to the French one. What comes to mind when I say “Seydnaya”?
After the world saw what it was like inside Seydnaya, I can’t even imagine what it was like for people to be imprisoned there. For them to turn into numbers, then corpses and rotten bodies that are still living. They are then taken to the human press where they are turned into bones and tissue. Who could even imagine such a thing? Who could even endure such terror?
On the outside, we used to look at the prison as a symbol of oppression and injustice. These words don’t do justice to what the detainees went through for even a few minutes, so what could it even have been like for people who were held there for dozens of years? Perhaps the lucky ones were the detainees who entered the prison and were swiftly taken to the press.
*Were you surprised to learn about the press? Were you expecting to see such a thing?
It never occurred to me that the regime would use a press against humans. We had heard a lot about the different forms of torture and the mass graves, but a human press?! What kind of criminal mind did this regime have?
*What purpose did this press serve?
You and me, we are normal humans who love and feel for our relatives. We think soundly. This is not a question that can be answered by people who think reasonably. What could possibly prompt a criminal regime, which has the whole of Syria, to bring in a press to turn corpses into dust. The prison itself has thousands of meters of territory. Just bury the corpses there. No normal person could have operated the press.
Small Butchers and Senior Officers
*Can you name any of the big butchers who were responsible for the torture?
The list is long. We had filed lawsuits against several people before the German judiciary, including deputy chief of security affairs Ali Mamlouk, deputy director of national security and former head of military intelligence Abdel Fattah Qadsiye, and head of air force intelligence and Mazzeh prison warden Jamil al-Hassan. Hassan was the target of the first arrest warrant issued by the German judiciary.
The heads of security branches are directly responsible for the killing under torture, but they are not the only ones responsible. I have always said that arresting the head of the security branch and charging him with war crimes is not as important as issuing charges against the person who carried out the actual killing and torture in these jails. These are the people who enjoyed the killing. They don’t just kill because they were ordered to do so; they do it because they relish torturing people, and the result are the images that we have seen after the ouster of the regime.
They believe that they will be protected by their superiors and that they won’t be held to account. All the trials that have been held outside of Syria were dedicated to trying top rank officials or people who were proven to have committed murder. This is not enough. We must get the names of the people who carried out the direct killings so that they realize that the regime that they worshipped like God does not protect them.
People look through documents at the Seydnaya prison in Damascus on December 11, 2024. (AFP)
*Are the documents that have been collected enough to indict the smaller employees? Are there any names?
If you mean the Caesar files, which we took out of Syria in 2013, they only have a limited number of photos of regime members. Some names are there through signatures on documents, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they were the ones who tortured and killed the victims. Our files don’t have the names of the butchers in the jails who carried out the killing.
In order to establish a free Syria and a stable society, you must go through a period of transitional justice, which demands accountability. You cannot live in an area knowing that your neighbor still reeks of blood because he used to work for several years in Assad’s jails where he used to torture or kill detainees. So, everyone who committed human rights violations in Syria must be held to account in order for our society to become stable. We mustn't allow the opportunity for individual acts of revenge if relatives come to believe that they have not received justice against those who killed their loved ones.
The violations are not limited to killing and torture. There are so many violations. Everything that undermines human dignity is a violation, and so are attempts to create demographic change. You can’t simply tell people who lived in a tent along the Turkish border, Jordanian desert or in Lebanon for 12 years to return home, the regime is gone. Add to that a whole generation that has never been to school. They have never been given an opportunity to live a normal human life. So, these people must be compensated.
Destruction of Documents
*Do you worry that the fate of the victims of Seydnaya Prison will be the same as those of the Hama massacre?
This leads us to a problem that happened after Damascus’ liberation from the criminal tyrant Assad. The chaos that ensued in the first few days after his ouster led to the loss of a lot of documents and evidence. Of course, I am not blaming relatives who were frantically searching for their loved ones. They are justified for and had every right to feel that way. But I refuse that for you to receive your right, you deny others of theirs. The destruction of documents means that we won’t have evidence that implicates the criminals. So, you just denied relatives of victims their right to see the butcher who killed their son held to account.
Relatives entering the prisons wasn’t the only way these documents were destroyed. Some places were left in bad shape, and some were burned down later by unknown people. So, we know that some people are deliberately doing this with the aim of destroying these documents. Bashar al-Assad and the other criminals are probably very happy to see evidence destroyed this way and prison doors being flung open without documenting who the detainees are. We saw how prisoners walked on foot, naked, from Seydnaya to al-Tall. That’s a 3-km walk in the cold night.
*Do you compare Assad’s downfall to Saddam Hussein’s?
I don’t think you can compare the two. First, Assad was toppled by the Syrian people and by terror. Assad was toppled before the revolutionary forces made it to Damascus. All the conditions for his collapse were there. He was in his weakest state, and he was ousted by heroic Syrians, who entered Damascus after liberating Hama and Homs. Other Syrians had also worked on isolating the regime politically and economically by working with rights groups.
The situation was not like Iraq. A comparison between Assad and any other case from our time or in the past wrongs the other party. I don’t think Nero even deserves to be compared to Assad.
*So, is Nero better?
“Better” or “worse” are not the right words for this. I am saying that Bashar al-Assad was crazier and more criminal than Nero. There’s no room here to use the word “better”.
