Biden Will Step Aside in the 2024 Race. What Happens Next?

A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)
A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)
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Biden Will Step Aside in the 2024 Race. What Happens Next?

A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)
A "Kamala 2024" sign is placed outside the US Naval Observatory, home of Vice President Kamala Harris, on July 21, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Getty Images via AFP)

President Joe Biden said on Sunday he would withdraw from the 2024 presidential election race, putting the United States into uncharted territory.

Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee.

Before Biden's decision was made, Reuters spoke to Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think-tank, a Democratic National Committee member and author of the book "Primary Politics" about the presidential nominating process, who explained how the process could work. Reuters also spoke to legal experts and Democratic Party officials.

Q: WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

A: Biden has spent the last several months accruing nearly 4,000 Democratic delegates by winning primary elections in US states and territories.

Those delegates would normally vote for him to be the party's official presidential nominee at the Democratic National Convention, which is to take place Aug. 19-22, but the rules do not bind or force them to do so. Delegates can vote with their conscience, which means they could throw their vote to someone else.

By stepping aside, Biden is effectively "releasing" his delegates, potentially sparking a competition among other Democratic candidates to become the nominee.

Within hours of Biden's announcement, Harris' allies were working the phones - calling delegates and party chairs to get their backing, sources told Reuters.

Q: WHO COULD REPLACE BIDEN?

A: Several candidates could step into the fray.

Harris is at the top of the list, but she has had her own problems after a rocky start as vice president and poor polling numbers. The US Constitution dictates that the vice president becomes president if the president dies or becomes incapacitated, but it does not weigh in on an inter-party process for choosing a nominee.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker have all been floated as possible replacements. Up until now they have been Biden supporters working to help get him elected, and Whitmer has said she supports Harris.

Q: HOW WILL A NOMINEE BE CHOSEN?

A: There could be a free-for-all of sorts between the Democratic heavyweights vying for the job.

According to Ballotpedia, there are expected to be some 4,672 delegates in 2024, including 3,933 pledged delegates and 739 so-called superdelegates - senior party members.

In order to secure the nomination, a candidate would need to get a majority - that is, more votes than all the others combined.

That's what Harris' allies are trying to do right now - secure the pledged support of 1,969 delegates, and shut down any competition.

If no one achieves that, then there would be a "brokered convention" where the delegates act as free agents and negotiate with the party leadership. Rules would be established and there would be roll-call votes for names placed into nomination.

It could take several rounds of voting for someone to get a majority and become the nominee. The last brokered convention when Democrats failed to nominate a candidate on the first ballot was in 1952.

WHAT HAPPENS TO BIDEN'S CAMPAIGN CASH?

The Biden-Harris campaign had $91 million in the bank at the end of May, but experts on campaign finance law disagree on how readily the money could change hands.

Because Harris is also on the campaign filing documents, many experts believe the money could be transferred over to her if she is on the ticket. There is some debate about whether Biden would need to be officially nominated first as the party's candidate before a transfer could be made.



Egypt... An ‘Alternative Sudan’ for those Fleeing War

A café in Giza popular with displaced Sudanese (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A café in Giza popular with displaced Sudanese (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Egypt... An ‘Alternative Sudan’ for those Fleeing War

A café in Giza popular with displaced Sudanese (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A café in Giza popular with displaced Sudanese (Asharq Al-Awsat)

With the influx of hundreds of thousands of displaced Sudanese into Egypt over the past months due to the ongoing war in their country, Egypt has turned into an “alternative Sudan” that embraces more than 5.5 million regular and irregular refugees.

“We live in an integrated Sudanese society in Egypt,” Musaab Hamdan, 33, told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Hamdan, a cleaning worker at a private company in the Mohandiseen neighborhood, said that the country was a haven for thousands of displaced people fleeing the war.

The Egyptian government estimates the number of Sudanese at about 5 million out of 9 million refugees on its territory, while President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi describes them as “guests of Egypt.”

The large inflow of Sudanese since the outbreak of the war in their country in 2023 has put pressure on the International Commission for Refugees in Cairo and Alexandria, where about 3,000 refugee applications are received daily. This has increased the number of Sudanese registered with the Commission to 300,000 persons, which represents 52 percent of the total number of refugees registered in Egypt with UNHCR until April.

The Sudanese features and traditional attire are distinctive on the streets of Cairo and Giza, where Sudanese vendors and citizens are now seen practicing business activities that were limited to Egyptians for decades, including driving taxis and small buses in popular neighborhoods. Hamdan said that this reflects the rapid integration of newcomers into everyday life in Egypt.

Mohamed Abdel Majeed, a taxi driver in Giza, speaks the Egyptian dialect so fluently that many locals do not realize he is from Sudan.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that he has adapted to driving on Cairo’s streets and now knows the names and locations of stations by heart.

Alternative haven

Social networking sites are monitoring this heavy Sudanese presence in Egypt, as some videos have focused on the idea of an “alternative Sudan in the country.”

Among them was a comment made by a Sudanese influencer who joked about the heavy presence of his countrymen in the Faisal neighborhood in Giza, saying: “If you are Sudanese living abroad and want to see your family and your country. All you have to do is go to Giza, Egypt.”

Tens of thousands of Sudanese fleeing the war in Sudan consider Egypt the “best haven.” Fatima Hassan feared that her daughters would be “raped by armed militias in Sudan,” and decided to enter Egypt irregularly, she told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Extreme heat and thirst exhausted Fatima and her three daughters during a long trip, before she succeeded in reaching Giza to join her sister who had preceded her there several months ago.

Last month, the authorities announced that they have prevented the illegal entry of buses carrying displaced Sudanese. However, Abdullah Qouni - who has lived in the Maadi neighborhood in Cairo for 15 years and helps many newly displaced to find housing or a job opportunity - told Asharq Al-Awsat that around 11 buses from Aswan enter Egypt daily. He added that each irregular migrant pays about $500 to smugglers in exchange for the trip.

Education

One of the most important features of “Alternative Sudan” is the sight of dark-skinned students on their way to dedicated schools. Their number has increased steadily in recent months, forcing the Egyptian authorities to close some of them in order to “legalize the situation.”

Sami Al-Baqir, spokesman for the Sudanese Teachers Syndicate, estimates the number of Sudanese schools in Egypt at about 300 basic and intermediate schools.

The Sudanese embassy in Cairo, which moved its headquarters years ago from Garden City to the Dokki neighborhood, thanked the Egyptian government for its cooperation in making the Sudanese primary certificate exams a success in June, through six educational centers affiliated with the embassy. ​​

On the academic level, Ayman Ashour, the Egyptian Minister of Higher Education, estimated the number of Sudanese students who enrolled in Egyptian universities last year at more than 10,000.

Egyptian sensitivities

With the Sudanese “jilbab” dominating Egyptian streets and neighborhoods, and videos of large Sudanese gatherings in Cairo being circulated on social media, in addition to reports about the expulsion of Egyptian tenants to house displaced Sudanese, concerns have mounted over their presence in the country.

Moreover, news have emerged about some Sudanese families performing circumcision on their daughters in Egypt, prompting activists to call on Egyptian authorities to enforce the law that criminalizes female circumcision.

Egyptian media professionals joined in criticizing the Sudanese presence. Qaswa Al-Khalali expressed “concern” about the presence of refugee clusters in popular areas, considering this matter “extremely dangerous.” Meanwhile, journalist Azza Mostafa warned of “some refugees taking control of entire areas in Cairo,” pointing to bad consequences on Egypt.

Egyptian parliamentarians responded to calls to legalize the status of refugees, including Siham Mostafa, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee in the House of Representatives. In television statements, she said: “Egypt hosts millions of foreigners and provides them with services at the same prices provided to citizens without any increase, despite the current economic crisis.”

Reducing burdens

Due to the economic crisis, Egypt has called on the international community to support it in “bearing the burdens of refugees.”

Former Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said, after his meeting with the Director-General of the International Organization for Migration, Amy Pope, that the support Egypt receives from the international community was not commensurate with the burdens it bears, especially as the Egyptian economy suffers from the consequences of global crises.

The Egyptian government recently launched a process to count the numbers of refugees residing on its territory, with the aim of calculating the cost of hosting them and determining the financial burdens.

In a statement issued in April, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Egypt requested $175.1 million to meet the most urgent needs of Sudanese refugees who have fled to Egypt since mid-April 2023.