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Strong Iran Ties Emerge as Factor in Hamas Leader Choice, Analysts Say

Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal receives condolences at a mourning house for assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. (Reuters)
Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal receives condolences at a mourning house for assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. (Reuters)
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Strong Iran Ties Emerge as Factor in Hamas Leader Choice, Analysts Say

Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal receives condolences at a mourning house for assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. (Reuters)
Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal receives condolences at a mourning house for assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. (Reuters)

In choosing its next leader, Hamas will be looking for a candidate who can safeguard deep ties with Tehran at a time when Iranian support will be more important than ever to help the Palestinian group recover after the Gaza war, analysts say.

The armed group has several potential replacements for Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week. They include former leader, Khaled Meshaal, who led Hamas for 13 years from outside the Palestinian territories until passing the baton to Haniyeh in 2017.

But experts believe his chances could be hurt by past friction with Iran and its regional allies, notably Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Meshaal was Hamas leader when the group turned on Damascus during the so-called Arab Spring and declared sympathy with the rebellion against him.

Iran's support will be doubly important to Hamas as it seeks to rebuild once the guns fall silent in Gaza, devastated by Israeli bombardment since the group ignited war by attacking Israel on Oct. 7. While Hamas continues to fight in Gaza, 10 months of pummeling by Israel have hit it hard.

This consideration seems likely to boost the prospects of candidates deemed closer to Tehran, including Khalil al-Hayya, currently serving as Hamas' deputy leader for Gaza though he left the territory some years ago.

"There might have been some retreat in Meshaal's chances of taking the place of Haniyeh, because he doesn't enjoy much support from Iran since he was the one who turned against the Syrian regime and ended the Hamas presence in Damascus," said Ashraf Abouelhoul, a specialist on Palestinian issues and managing editor of the Egyptian state-owned paper Al-Ahram.

"Also, the armed wing, which is keen on the concept of the rebuilding when the war is over, will be thinking of a candidate whose relations with Iran are strong enough to ensure the rebuilding takes place," he said.

One Hamas official told Reuters the succession hadn't been settled yet and the deliberations are under way.

HAYYA SAYS HAMAS LEADERSHIP UNITED

Hayya was known to be very close to Haniyeh. He accompanied him to Tehran for the visit during which he was killed in July.

He led Hamas' negotiating team for ceasefire talks under Haniyeh's supervision and also led reconciliation talks with Hamas' Palestinian rival Fatah in past years.

Like Haniyeh, he maintained strong relations with Iran and in 2022 he led a Hamas delegation to Damascus to mend ties with Assad, declaring it a historic meeting.

Speaking as Hamas received condolences for Haniyeh's death in Qatar, Hayya said the movement's leadership remained united.

"Our will is strong and can't be broken by the martyrdom of one leader or two or three," he said. "God willing within days we will conclude our consultations to choose a new leader."

Hani al-Masri, a Palestinian political analyst, said that in less extraordinary times the group's Gaza leader, Yahya Sinwar, would have been a candidate.

Sinwar was a mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack, in which gunmen killed 1,200 people and abducted another 250, according to Israeli tallies, prompting the Israeli offensive which the Gaza health ministry says has killed 40,000 people.

Sinwar is widely believed to still be running Hamas' war from tunnels under Gaza. Hayya's chances are helped by his good ties to the Lebanese group Hezbollah, the region's most powerful Iran-aligned faction, which has been trading fire with Israel throughout the Gaza war.

Masri noted Meshaal's leadership qualities and experience but said his prospects hinged on healing the rift with Iran: "His weak point is his negative relationships with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah at a time when there is ... a joint war."

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Sudan's Famine-stricken Zamzam Camp Hit by Devastating Floods

A handout photograph, shot in January 2024, shows a woman and baby at the Zamzam displacement camp, close to El Fasher in North Darfur, Sudan. MSF/Mohamed Zakaria/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A handout photograph, shot in January 2024, shows a woman and baby at the Zamzam displacement camp, close to El Fasher in North Darfur, Sudan. MSF/Mohamed Zakaria/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Sudan's Famine-stricken Zamzam Camp Hit by Devastating Floods

A handout photograph, shot in January 2024, shows a woman and baby at the Zamzam displacement camp, close to El Fasher in North Darfur, Sudan. MSF/Mohamed Zakaria/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A handout photograph, shot in January 2024, shows a woman and baby at the Zamzam displacement camp, close to El Fasher in North Darfur, Sudan. MSF/Mohamed Zakaria/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

A famine-stricken camp in Sudan's conflict-torn Darfur region is facing a "significant" new influx of displaced people while floods threaten to contaminate water and sanitation facilities, according to satellite imagery published on Friday.

The findings from Yale Humanitarian Research Lab show that toilets and nine out of 13 water points have been inundated at the Zamzam camp for internally displaced people (IDPs) in North Darfur, raising the risk of cholera and other diseases in an area already facing extreme levels of malnutrition.

The camp, hosting about 500,000 people, has become more crowded as people have fled recent fighting between Sudan's army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which broke out in April 2023.

The images analyzed by the Yale researchers show brown floodwaters submerging outdoor toilets and areas where people queue for water.

"We need water, food, healthcare, and for God to lift this curse from Sudan, nothing more than that," said Duria Abdelrahman, who told Reuters she had received no aid since arriving in the camp. Women were seen cleaning leaves to eat.

Zamzam is the largest IDP camp in Sudan, and some people have lived there for more than two decades.

On Thursday, the world’s global hunger monitor determined that Zamzam is experiencing famine, only the third such assessment since the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, an international food security standard, was established two decades ago

“For humanitarians, our worst-case scenario, what we train for as the sum of all fears, is happening on the ground right now,” said Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab.

“A population already vulnerable due to being food and water deprived, on the move and under siege, now is surrounded by floodwaters that are contaminated with human and animal faeces.”

Zamzam is near al-Fashir, capital of North Darfur and the only significant holdout from the RSF across Darfur. At least 65 people were killed this week as the group besieges the city.

The main hospital is out of service after an RSF attack.

- DIRTY WATER

Zamzam and other areas where more than 300,000 people have fled are controlled by armed groups that are neutral or allied with the government and therefore offer some protection. But they have little food and few services because the army and RSF have prevented assistance from entering.

Residents say they cannot reach farms as RSF soldiers surround the area, while most have no money for the little food that enters markets. The IPC said the Abu Shouk and al-Salam camps in al-Fashir are likely facing similar conditions to Zamzam.

Residents have limited access to fresh water, the Yale researchers said.

“The water is unsafe because it mixes with all the dirt,” Zamzam resident Yahia Ali told Reuters, pointing to brown rainwater collected in a tarp. “And even though it’s dirty we are forced to drink it.”

The Yale researchers used satellite imagery to identify enough standing water at the camp to cover at least 125 soccer pitches. The researchers also documented submerged toilets at Al Salam School 36 for Adolescents and another school compound.

A Reuters eyewitness said newcomers from al-Fashir sheltering in a roofless school had water up to their knees.

In al-Fashir, the Yale researchers documented flooding of hospitals, food and water distribution sites, and markets. The Mawashi Market, where livestock is slaughtered and sold, was also inundated and the researchers called it “a particularly concerning vehicle of contamination”.

As of early July, Sudan had 11,000 cholera cases nationwide, according to the health ministry, although none had been recorded in North Darfur.

Waterborne disease outbreaks occurred in Darfur during a devastating conflict that began in 2003.

Zamzam is one of 14 locations across Sudan where the IPC has said famine is likely, most of them other displacement camps that have seen little aid enter since the latest war began.

“This is not just the situation in Zamzam, but the condition of all the other camps in Darfur, more than 171 camps suffering the same conditions,” said Adam Rojal, spokesman for the Displacement Camps Coordinating Committee, an activist network.