Will Sinwar’s Strong Personality Help Stop the War?

Photos of Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack or kidnapped by Hamas (AP)
Photos of Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack or kidnapped by Hamas (AP)
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Will Sinwar’s Strong Personality Help Stop the War?

Photos of Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack or kidnapped by Hamas (AP)
Photos of Israelis killed in the Oct. 7 attack or kidnapped by Hamas (AP)

The Hamas movement’s announcement that it had chosen Yehya Sinwar as head of its political bureau came as a surprise to many observers, including Palestinians, especially in the Gaza Strip.

This announcement raises many questions about the implications of choosing Sinwar, given the possibility that he might face a fate similar to his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated last week in Tehran.

For Gazans who are eager to end the war, the more pressing concern is whether Sinwar’s leadership will bring them closer to peace or push them further away from it.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, political analyst Mustafa Ibrahim said that choosing Sinwar to succeed Haniyeh sends a message of defiance to all parties. It also signifies that all Hamas leaders support the Oct. 7 attack and that, as a movement, Hamas is committed to continuing the resistance and will not back down from its positions.

Ibrahim does not believe that Sinwar will retreat from the flexibility the movement recently demonstrated during the ceasefire negotiations.

“He was at the heart of the talks and was not distant or uninvolved, as some Israeli reports suggested,” the political analyst stated.

Diaa Hassan, specialist in Palestinian affairs, agreed with Ibrahim. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that, contrary to the prevailing belief that Sinwar is an obstacle to any agreement, in many stages he “showed greater flexibility than other leaders within the movement towards reaching a deal.”

Meanwhile, the people of Gaza, who are suffering under a brutal war, have expressed fear over the decision to choose Sinwar.

Ahmed Abu Zekri, a resident of the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood north of Gaza City, said: “I don’t know if this helps us, and I don’t care what anyone says. I will only welcome what will stop this war.”

As for Ansam Daoud, a resident of the Tal al-Hawa neighborhood, she points out that Sinwar was “a beloved figure for us, but after the massacres and destruction that befell us, many of us now see him as the reason for all of this.”

She continued: “Therefore, his appointment as leader of the Hamas movement was surprising and shocking, especially since the majority of citizens, including myself, prefer a person from outside the Gaza Strip who show more interest in us, as Haniyeh did.”



Strong Iran Ties Emerge as Factor in Hamas Leader Choice, Analysts Say

Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal receives condolences at a mourning house for assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. (Reuters)
Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal receives condolences at a mourning house for assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. (Reuters)
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Strong Iran Ties Emerge as Factor in Hamas Leader Choice, Analysts Say

Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal receives condolences at a mourning house for assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. (Reuters)
Former Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal receives condolences at a mourning house for assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, August 2, 2024. (Reuters)

In choosing its next leader, Hamas will be looking for a candidate who can safeguard deep ties with Tehran at a time when Iranian support will be more important than ever to help the Palestinian group recover after the Gaza war, analysts say.

The armed group has several potential replacements for Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week. They include former leader, Khaled Meshaal, who led Hamas for 13 years from outside the Palestinian territories until passing the baton to Haniyeh in 2017.

But experts believe his chances could be hurt by past friction with Iran and its regional allies, notably Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Meshaal was Hamas leader when the group turned on Damascus during the so-called Arab Spring and declared sympathy with the rebellion against him.

Iran's support will be doubly important to Hamas as it seeks to rebuild once the guns fall silent in Gaza, devastated by Israeli bombardment since the group ignited war by attacking Israel on Oct. 7. While Hamas continues to fight in Gaza, 10 months of pummeling by Israel have hit it hard.

This consideration seems likely to boost the prospects of candidates deemed closer to Tehran, including Khalil al-Hayya, currently serving as Hamas' deputy leader for Gaza though he left the territory some years ago.

"There might have been some retreat in Meshaal's chances of taking the place of Haniyeh, because he doesn't enjoy much support from Iran since he was the one who turned against the Syrian regime and ended the Hamas presence in Damascus," said Ashraf Abouelhoul, a specialist on Palestinian issues and managing editor of the Egyptian state-owned paper Al-Ahram.

"Also, the armed wing, which is keen on the concept of the rebuilding when the war is over, will be thinking of a candidate whose relations with Iran are strong enough to ensure the rebuilding takes place," he said.

One Hamas official told Reuters the succession hadn't been settled yet and the deliberations are under way.

HAYYA SAYS HAMAS LEADERSHIP UNITED

Hayya was known to be very close to Haniyeh. He accompanied him to Tehran for the visit during which he was killed in July.

He led Hamas' negotiating team for ceasefire talks under Haniyeh's supervision and also led reconciliation talks with Hamas' Palestinian rival Fatah in past years.

Like Haniyeh, he maintained strong relations with Iran and in 2022 he led a Hamas delegation to Damascus to mend ties with Assad, declaring it a historic meeting.

Speaking as Hamas received condolences for Haniyeh's death in Qatar, Hayya said the movement's leadership remained united.

"Our will is strong and can't be broken by the martyrdom of one leader or two or three," he said. "God willing within days we will conclude our consultations to choose a new leader."

Hani al-Masri, a Palestinian political analyst, said that in less extraordinary times the group's Gaza leader, Yahya Sinwar, would have been a candidate.

Sinwar was a mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack, in which gunmen killed 1,200 people and abducted another 250, according to Israeli tallies, prompting the Israeli offensive which the Gaza health ministry says has killed 40,000 people.

Sinwar is widely believed to still be running Hamas' war from tunnels under Gaza. Hayya's chances are helped by his good ties to the Lebanese group Hezbollah, the region's most powerful Iran-aligned faction, which has been trading fire with Israel throughout the Gaza war.

Masri noted Meshaal's leadership qualities and experience but said his prospects hinged on healing the rift with Iran: "His weak point is his negative relationships with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah at a time when there is ... a joint war."