Its Economy and Infrastructure Battered, Can Lebanon Afford a War With Israel?

The ferocious exchange of fire by Hezbollah and the Israeli military is raising fears of a regional war beyond the tense border.
The risks for Lebanon are far greater than in 2006, when a monthlong war with Israel ended in a draw. Lebanon has struggled with years of political and economic crises that left it indebted, without a stable electricity supply, a proper banking system and with rampant poverty, The Associated Press reported.
And with Hezbollah’s military power significantly greater, there are concerns that a new war would be far more destructive and prolonged.
Can Lebanon afford any of it?
Planning for a 2006 war repeat — or worse Since Hezbollah and Israel began firing rockets and drones at each other a day after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza on Oct. 7, the conflict has been mostly limited to border towns. But with the threat of a wider war, Lebanon has scrambled to equip hospitals with supplies and prepare public schools to open up to people seeking shelter.
A rare Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut last month that killed a top Hezbollah commander set off a flurry of meetings between humanitarian organizations and the Lebanese government, said Laila Al Amine, who heads the Beirut office of international relief organization Mercy Corps. It's one of some 60 organizations helping the government with its relief efforts.
The government and UN agencies prepared a comprehensive response plan this month outlining two possible scenarios: a limited escalation that would resemble the 2006 war, with an estimated 250,000 people displaced, and a worst-case scenario of “uncontrolled conflict” that would displaced at least 1 million people.
The UN-drafted plan, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, projects a monthly cost of $50 million in case of a limited escalation and $100 million if an all-out war breaks out.
The Lebanese government said that funding for the emergency will come from creditors and humanitarian aid organizations. But the authorities have struggled to find money to care for 100,000 currently displaced and an estimated 60,000 people living in conflict areas, which is costing about $24 million a month.
Environment Minister Nasser Yassin, who is spearheading relief operations, told reporters after an emergency government meeting Sunday that the morning attacks won't change the plan.
“It already presents scenarios of all the possibilities that could happen, among them is an expansion of the hostilities,” said Yassin.
Indebted and cash-strapped Lebanon desperate for aid money decades of corruption and political paralysis have left Lebanon’s banks barely functional, while electricity services are almost entirely in the hands of private diesel-run generator owners and fuel suppliers. Public service institutions rely on aid groups and international donors to function at a barebones level. Lebanese who once lived in relative comfort are receiving food and financial aid to survive.
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic further battered the economy, and the Beirut port explosion flattened several neighborhoods in the heart of the capital. Lebanon’s banks and the ruling elite have resisted painful reforms as a condition for an International Monetary Fund bailout while the infrastructure continued to wither and living conditions worsened.
Tourism, which officials had relied on to help rebuild the economy, has also taken a hit since the border conflict with Israel.
And unlike in 2006, Lebanon is hosting more than 1 million Syrian refugees who fled the conflict in their country. Health Minister Firas Abiad told the AP earlier this month that the Lebanese health system is ill-equipped to treat the additional population in the event of an all-out war, as international funding for Syrian refugees continues to decline.
In April, Yassin said the country had only half the money needed to respond to the conflict and ensuing humanitarian needs.
Lebanon faces tougher logistics In 2006, Israel bombed the runways of Lebanon’s only airport, putting it largely out of commission, and imposed an air and sea blockade. Its bombardment crippled critical infrastructure and flattened neighborhoods, with damage and losses worth $3.1 billion, according to the World Bank.
But aid groups eventually were able to send supplies through the country’s ports and at times through the airport using the remaining limited runway space. In their assessment of the war, the UN said that their relief efforts was not in response to a humanitarian crisis. “People did not die from poor sanitation, hunger or disease. They died from bombs and shells,” UN OCHA said in a report a month after the war.
Many Lebanese were able to flee to neighboring Syria, where an uprising in 2011 plunged the country into a civil war. It's unclear how easy crossing the border would be this time, both for civilians and aid groups.
It is also unclear whether the Beirut port, still not fully rebuilt after the devastating blast in 2020, would have sufficient capacity in case of a wider war. Its damaged grain silos collapsed in 2022, and the country relies on minimal food storage due to the financial crisis.
“Lebanon apparently has stocks of food and fuel for two-three months, but what happens beyond this duration?” Al Amine said. “We only have one airport and we can’t transport things through our land borders. It would be difficult to bring items into the country.”
An empowered Hezbollah In 2006, Hezbollah reportedly had some 15,000 rockets in its arsenal, “but more recent unofficial estimates suggest this number has multiplied by almost 10 times,” said Dina Arakji, associate analyst at UK-based risk consultancy firm Control Risks.
The group has also “acquired more advanced weaponry, including precision missiles and variants of Iranian arms, as well as Chinese and Russian weaponry,” she said.
Hezbollah, which relies on a network of Iran-backed allied groups that could enter the conflict, has also substantially expanded its drone arsenal and capabilities, against which Israeli air defenses are less effective.
Lebanese officials and international diplomats hope that an elusive cease-fire agreement in Gaza will bring calm in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has said it will halt its attacks along the border if there is a cease-fire in Gaza.

Kamala Harris is making her pitch to voters as a muscular defender of US interests while aiming for nuance on the painful issue of Gaza -- hoping to cover vulnerabilities and to paint Republican Donald Trump as the more risky candidate on national security.

In her speech accepting the Democratic nomination for president, the vice president vowed to "not cozy up to tyrants and dictators" who can flatter Trump as he "wants to be an autocrat himself."

The message predictably was one of continuity with her current boss President Joe Biden. But it also made her a rare Democrat to seek the White House on a message of being tougher on the world stage than the Republican, AFP reported.

Biden ran for president promising to end "forever wars" and pulled out of Afghanistan after 20 years.

Barack Obama, succeeding war leader George W. Bush, at his inauguration invited US adversaries to dialogue if "you unclench your fist."

Trump, while insisting that he also wants the United States out of foreign military engagements, frequently boasts of his readiness to threaten extreme force -- or what he calls "peace through strength."

Striking a hawkish note herself, Harris boasted she would maintain "the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world" and warned she would strike back at any Iranian-backed attack.

At a Chicago party convention that prominently featured veterans, Harris also vowed solidarity with Ukraine as she denounced Trump's threats not to defend NATO allies if he feels they are not paying enough.

Harris is vying to be the first female US president and therefore "needs to go above and beyond what a male candidate would need to do to demonstrate that she is strong," said Allison McManus of the left-leaning Center for American Progress.

"The public will still have an impression of a woman as being inherently a weaker leader than a man, and she needs to make up for that by being very explicit and clear about her commitment to defense," McManus said.

Harris's emphasis on force, McManus said, should not be confused with a truly hawkish foreign policy.

Harris won the biggest applause lines in her foreign policy section when she spoke of the suffering of Palestinians and promised to work so they "can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination."

Biden has faced heated criticism from the left for his support of Israel in its relentless campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas' October 7 attack.

Harris also pledged to "always stand up for Israel's right to defend itself." Some pro-Palestinian activists, who rallied on the Chicago streets, voiced outrage that the Democrats gave the podium to parents of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and not to Palestinians.

Biden himself has urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do more to protect civilians and to drop opposition to a Palestinian state -- stances few expect from Trump.

But McManus said Harris's choice of the phrase "self-determination" marked an important reframing.

"It recognizes that Palestinians are a people, that they have rights and that they should be the ones who have a say in their own future," she said.

Critics, however, note that Biden with one exception has not used the key tool to pressure Israel -- restricting some of the billions in US weapons it receives.

Some activists have voiced more hope for Harris as she was the first senior US official to urge a ceasefire and her closest foreign policy advisor, Phil Gordon, wrote a book critical of US policy on the Middle East.

Gordon, however, has made clear that Harris does not support an arms embargo on Israel.

"I was fairly disappointed that she did not take this opportunity to try to at least send a stronger signal that she might be willing to break from the current administration," said Annelle Sheline, who resigned from the State Department in March to protest policy on Gaza.

"At the same time, I've not completely given up hope," she said.

Sheline, now at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said that US political calculations have long been that there is more to lose by being insufficiently pro-Israel.

"I think it may take a while for American politicians to learn that, actually, that has started to change," she said.

Its Economy and Infrastructure Battered, Can Lebanon Afford a War With Israel?