South Lebanon Front: Military or Political Solution?

The funeral of Qassem Bazzi, Mohammed Hashem and Abbas Hammoud, the three paramedics who were killed last Saturday in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon (Reuters)
The funeral of Qassem Bazzi, Mohammed Hashem and Abbas Hammoud, the three paramedics who were killed last Saturday in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon (Reuters)
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South Lebanon Front: Military or Political Solution?

The funeral of Qassem Bazzi, Mohammed Hashem and Abbas Hammoud, the three paramedics who were killed last Saturday in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon (Reuters)
The funeral of Qassem Bazzi, Mohammed Hashem and Abbas Hammoud, the three paramedics who were killed last Saturday in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon (Reuters)

Israeli threats against Lebanon have intensified along with renewed military tensions with Hezbollah. This escalation comes amid failed ceasefire negotiations for Gaza, which Hezbollah links to restoring calm on the southern front—a condition reportedly not accepted by Tel Aviv, according to multiple Israeli officials.

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib has conveyed through intermediaries that Tel Aviv is not interested in a ceasefire in Lebanon, even if a truce in Gaza is achieved. This message was communicated by US envoy Amos Hochstein a few months ago, raising concerns about whether a military solution will prevail over a political one.

While some analysts believe that a de-escalation in Gaza might lead to heightened tensions in the South, given Israeli officials’ readiness for a northern conflict following the Gaza conflict, others argue that escalation is unlikely and that both fronts will face a similar fate.

Retired Brigadier General Dr. Khalil Helou and Professor of Political Science and International Relations Dr. Imad Salameh agree that the current situation is unlikely to change, predicting that the status quo will persist with “no ceasefire and no expansion of the war.”

In contrast, Riad Kahwaji, Head of the Middle East and Gulf Military Analysis Center – Enigma, sees an increased likelihood of war expansion in Lebanon due to the failed Gaza ceasefire negotiations.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Kahwaji said: “With the failure of negotiations in Gaza, attention is now shifting to the southern front of Lebanon, which remains in the eye of the storm and within the danger zone.”

For his part, Helou stated: “For 11 months, Tel Aviv has been threatening escalation and will continue to do so. However, the likelihood of war has decreased compared to previous months due to internal and external political factors related to Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to take actions that would harm US interests, especially before the American elections.”

Helou noted that Israel continues to systematically destroy areas in the South, over five kilometers from the border, to prevent attacks on northern regions. Despite this, ongoing shelling and rockets from Hezbollah targeting northern towns suggest that the situation will remain unchanged.

Salameh agreed, describing the current situation as a media and psychological war with fluctuating intensity.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Tel Aviv’s renewed threats are part of this ongoing conflict and do not indicate an imminent large-scale invasion of Lebanon or a major conflict with uncertain regional and domestic consequences.”

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has recently announced shifting military focus northward in preparation for a comprehensive ground operation.

On Tuesday, during a tour of the border area with Lebanon, he stated: “We are shifting the focus of military operations northward in preparation for completing tasks in the South.”

He urged military personnel to “prepare for a comprehensive ground operation at all levels to change the security situation and return residents to their homes.”

Gallant’s statement followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s instruction for the army to prepare for “changing the situation in the North.”

In contrast, Hezbollah continues to link the southern front with the developments in Gaza.

“The enemy will not be able to return settlers to their homes except through one way: stopping the aggression on Gaza,” Deputy Chairman of Hezbollah’s Executive Council Sheikh Ali Damoush said.

He added: “The resistance will not accept changes to the rules of engagement or breaking existing equations. The more the enemy persists in its aggression and expands its attacks, the more the resistance will respond and escalate its operations... Escalation will be met with escalation, and we are not afraid of threats or intimidation."



With Hospitals Full in Lebanon, Family Flees to Give Birth in Iraq

Lubana Ismail, a displaced Lebanese woman who fled from her home in Tyre due to Israeli bombardments in Southern Lebanon, holds her newborn baby girl, Zahraa, to whom she gave birth in Iraq, as she sits with her family at a hotel in Najaf, Iraq, October 7, 2024. (Reuters)
Lubana Ismail, a displaced Lebanese woman who fled from her home in Tyre due to Israeli bombardments in Southern Lebanon, holds her newborn baby girl, Zahraa, to whom she gave birth in Iraq, as she sits with her family at a hotel in Najaf, Iraq, October 7, 2024. (Reuters)
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With Hospitals Full in Lebanon, Family Flees to Give Birth in Iraq

Lubana Ismail, a displaced Lebanese woman who fled from her home in Tyre due to Israeli bombardments in Southern Lebanon, holds her newborn baby girl, Zahraa, to whom she gave birth in Iraq, as she sits with her family at a hotel in Najaf, Iraq, October 7, 2024. (Reuters)
Lubana Ismail, a displaced Lebanese woman who fled from her home in Tyre due to Israeli bombardments in Southern Lebanon, holds her newborn baby girl, Zahraa, to whom she gave birth in Iraq, as she sits with her family at a hotel in Najaf, Iraq, October 7, 2024. (Reuters)

Lubana Ismail had just fled her village in southern Lebanon with her husband and two children when she went into labor. She had swollen veins in her uterus and needed immediate medical supervision to give birth safely.

They searched for a hospital in Beirut or Sidon that would admit her, but all were full of the dead and wounded.

"No hospital accepted me. We were turned away everywhere until my father suggested we go to Iraq," she recounted.

So they boarded a flight and flew to Najaf. It was there, in a former war zone 1,000 km (600 miles) from home, that Lubana finally gave birth to baby Zahraa, healthy and safe.

The proud father, Fouad Youssef, recounted the perils of their evacuation.

"At first, we went to Tyre, but a strike hit directly next to us. We decided to go to Beirut, thinking it would be safer, but even on the way, a strike hit near us,” he said.

"During our two days of displacement, I tried to get my wife into a hospital because her labor was difficult. But due to the high number of injuries and martyrs, there were no vacancies."

More than a million Lebanese have fled their homes since Israel intensified its airstrikes and launched a ground campaign in southern Lebanon against the Hezbollah movement which has been striking Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians.

Imran Riza, UN humanitarian coordinator, said the pace of displacement since Sept. 23 had exceeded worst case scenarios, and too much damage was being done to civilian infrastructure.

Najaf is accustomed to handling the emergency medical needs of foreigners, and Iraqis have endured almost two decades of war at home. But receiving refugees from Lebanon is unexpected. Iraq's interior ministry says around 5,700 Lebanese have arrived so far.

Lubana and Fouad are grateful to have found a safe place to bring their family and give birth to their daughter. But they have no idea what will come next.

"We are afraid the war will go on for a long time. What will happen to our children? We were preparing them for school, but now there is no education. Are we going to stay here? Are we leaving? Are we going back to our country?" pondered Youssef, watching news of the destruction in Lebanon on his mobile screen.