South Lebanon Front: Military or Political Solution?

The funeral of Qassem Bazzi, Mohammed Hashem and Abbas Hammoud, the three paramedics who were killed last Saturday in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon (Reuters)
The funeral of Qassem Bazzi, Mohammed Hashem and Abbas Hammoud, the three paramedics who were killed last Saturday in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon (Reuters)
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South Lebanon Front: Military or Political Solution?

The funeral of Qassem Bazzi, Mohammed Hashem and Abbas Hammoud, the three paramedics who were killed last Saturday in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon (Reuters)
The funeral of Qassem Bazzi, Mohammed Hashem and Abbas Hammoud, the three paramedics who were killed last Saturday in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon (Reuters)

Israeli threats against Lebanon have intensified along with renewed military tensions with Hezbollah. This escalation comes amid failed ceasefire negotiations for Gaza, which Hezbollah links to restoring calm on the southern front—a condition reportedly not accepted by Tel Aviv, according to multiple Israeli officials.

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib has conveyed through intermediaries that Tel Aviv is not interested in a ceasefire in Lebanon, even if a truce in Gaza is achieved. This message was communicated by US envoy Amos Hochstein a few months ago, raising concerns about whether a military solution will prevail over a political one.

While some analysts believe that a de-escalation in Gaza might lead to heightened tensions in the South, given Israeli officials’ readiness for a northern conflict following the Gaza conflict, others argue that escalation is unlikely and that both fronts will face a similar fate.

Retired Brigadier General Dr. Khalil Helou and Professor of Political Science and International Relations Dr. Imad Salameh agree that the current situation is unlikely to change, predicting that the status quo will persist with “no ceasefire and no expansion of the war.”

In contrast, Riad Kahwaji, Head of the Middle East and Gulf Military Analysis Center – Enigma, sees an increased likelihood of war expansion in Lebanon due to the failed Gaza ceasefire negotiations.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Kahwaji said: “With the failure of negotiations in Gaza, attention is now shifting to the southern front of Lebanon, which remains in the eye of the storm and within the danger zone.”

For his part, Helou stated: “For 11 months, Tel Aviv has been threatening escalation and will continue to do so. However, the likelihood of war has decreased compared to previous months due to internal and external political factors related to Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to take actions that would harm US interests, especially before the American elections.”

Helou noted that Israel continues to systematically destroy areas in the South, over five kilometers from the border, to prevent attacks on northern regions. Despite this, ongoing shelling and rockets from Hezbollah targeting northern towns suggest that the situation will remain unchanged.

Salameh agreed, describing the current situation as a media and psychological war with fluctuating intensity.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Tel Aviv’s renewed threats are part of this ongoing conflict and do not indicate an imminent large-scale invasion of Lebanon or a major conflict with uncertain regional and domestic consequences.”

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has recently announced shifting military focus northward in preparation for a comprehensive ground operation.

On Tuesday, during a tour of the border area with Lebanon, he stated: “We are shifting the focus of military operations northward in preparation for completing tasks in the South.”

He urged military personnel to “prepare for a comprehensive ground operation at all levels to change the security situation and return residents to their homes.”

Gallant’s statement followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s instruction for the army to prepare for “changing the situation in the North.”

In contrast, Hezbollah continues to link the southern front with the developments in Gaza.

“The enemy will not be able to return settlers to their homes except through one way: stopping the aggression on Gaza,” Deputy Chairman of Hezbollah’s Executive Council Sheikh Ali Damoush said.

He added: “The resistance will not accept changes to the rules of engagement or breaking existing equations. The more the enemy persists in its aggression and expands its attacks, the more the resistance will respond and escalate its operations... Escalation will be met with escalation, and we are not afraid of threats or intimidation."



Displaced Gaza Newborn Freezes to Death and Twin Fights for His Life as Rain Floods Tents

Yahya Al-Batran, the father of Palestinian infant Jumaa Al-Batran, who died of hypothermia after living in a tent with his displaced family, reacts as he embraces his body at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, December 29, 2024. REUTERS/Ramadan Abed
Yahya Al-Batran, the father of Palestinian infant Jumaa Al-Batran, who died of hypothermia after living in a tent with his displaced family, reacts as he embraces his body at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, December 29, 2024. REUTERS/Ramadan Abed
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Displaced Gaza Newborn Freezes to Death and Twin Fights for His Life as Rain Floods Tents

Yahya Al-Batran, the father of Palestinian infant Jumaa Al-Batran, who died of hypothermia after living in a tent with his displaced family, reacts as he embraces his body at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, December 29, 2024. REUTERS/Ramadan Abed
Yahya Al-Batran, the father of Palestinian infant Jumaa Al-Batran, who died of hypothermia after living in a tent with his displaced family, reacts as he embraces his body at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip, December 29, 2024. REUTERS/Ramadan Abed

Yahya Al-Batran woke up in the early hours of Sunday morning to find his wife, Noura trying to wake their newborn twin sons Jumaa and Ali as they lay together in the makeshift tent the family occupied in an encampment in the central Gaza Strip.

Intense winter cold and heavy rain across the coastal enclave in previous days had made their lives a misery but what he heard was more serious.

"She said she had been trying to wake Jumaa up, but he was not waking up, and I asked about Ali and she said, he was not walking up either," he told Reuters on Sunday. "I held up Jumaa, he was white and freezing like snow, like ice, frozen."

Jumaa, a month old, died of hypothermia, one of six Palestinians who have died of exposure and cold over recent days in Gaza, according to doctors. Ali was in critical condition on Monday in intensive care.

In the second winter of the war in Gaza, the weather has added an extra element of suffering to hundreds of thousands of people already displaced, often multiple times, while efforts to agree a ceasefire go nowhere.

The death of Jumaa al-Batran shows how severe the situation facing vulnerable families remains.

Israeli authorities say they have allowed thousands of aid trucks carrying food, water, medical equipment and shelter supplies into Gaza. International aid agencies say Israeli forces have been hampering aid deliveries, making the humanitarian crisis even worse.

Yahya al-Batran's family, from the northern town of Beit Lahiya, fled their home early in the war for al-Maghazi, an open air patch of dunes and scrubland in central Gaza which Israeli authorities decreed as a humanitarian zone.

Later on, as al-Maghazi became increasingly unsafe, they moved to another encampment in nearby Deir al-Balah city.

"Since I am an adult I may take this and endure it, but what did the young one do to deserve this?" Jumaa's mother, Noura al-Batran said. "He could not endure it, he could not endure the cold or the hunger and this hopelessness."

TATTERED TENTS

Around the area, dozens of tents, many already tattered from months of use, have been blown away or flooded by the strong winds and rain, leaving families struggling to repair the damage, patching torn sheets of plastic and piling up sand to hold back the water.

It is another aspect of the humanitarian crisis facing Gaza's 2.3 million population, caught by the relentless Israeli campaign against the remnants of Hamas and dependent on an erratic aid system increasingly vulnerable to looting as order has broken down.

Israel's campaign against Hamas in Gaza has killed more than 45,500 Palestinians, according to Palestinian health officials, and turned the enclave into a wasteland of rubble and destroyed buildings.

The United Nations relief agency for Palestinians, UNRWA, said on Sunday that the aid is nowhere near enough and a ceasefire was desperately needed to deliver as famine loomed.

Earlier this month, Israeli and Hamas leaders expressed hopes that talks brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the United States could lead to an agreement to halt the fighting and return Israeli hostages held by Hamas, potentially opening the way to a full ceasefire agreement.

But optimistic talk of a deal before the end of the year has faded and it remains unclear how near the two sides are to an agreement.

Even as the displaced suffer, Israeli troops have been battling Hamas fighters in the ruined area around the northern towns of Beit Hanoun, Jabalia and Beit Lahiya, now out of reach of emergency services cut off by the fighting.